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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27066208 - 12/01/20 12:08 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Sign up for the intro month at StockMarketMentor, then watch as many of the archived tutorial videos as you can, and then keep up with the daily strategy sessions to see how those tools/strategies are applied to stocks in real time (the exact same principles apply to trading crypto). If you want to invest a little money into some of their "packaged" tutorial products, I would suggest Technical Analysis for Non-Technicians as an important starting point (it's discounted this week FYI). The 59 Minute Trader is also chock full of good info, but it's probably out of your budget. However if you watch the free tutorials after signing up as a member there, and keep an eye on the trading forum, as well as read through some of my posts over in the STOCKS thread, you can build a pretty good understanding of what is explained more directly in the 59 Minute Trader anyway.
If you want a book to read, I would suggest Mark Minervini's Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard.
Becoming a good trader takes a lot of time. You might have a knack for it, or you might just get lucky... but I've been doing this for decades and I still get humbled by the market AKA reminded how important building out and adhering to your personal discipline is, if you want to be successful long term.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27066242 - 12/01/20 12:27 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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I would definitely not count on day trading being your primary source of income. At least not until you have several years of experience under your belt and, perhaps something like $250,000+ of capital to work with. Even then, I would hesitate to suggest it as something to strive for. Day trading is volatile, and most people won't have the stomach for it... it's just too emotionally trying and depending on what the market is doing, it can really grind you down by testing your patience and ultimately your discipline. It is not uncommon for new traders to blow up their accounts (i.e. lose a lot of or even all of their money).
So don't quit your day job. The best thing you can do is start small, only risk money you are comfortable losing. You'll see, by way of your running account balance, whether or not you're getting a grip on it. I do think the capital markets are one of the most accessible ways for the modern human to grow their wealth, but if you are pushing too hard, you are likely to be sloppy and run into some serious setbacks. One day at a time, figure out what stategy(ies) work for you, focus on those particular skills and being able to find those specific setups, and apply yourself with extreme discipline.
If you ever want a second opinion on a trade, don't hesitate to post in here. I do take extended breaks from time to time (necessary for my sanity), but I will do my best to help you out, when I am available.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] 2
#27067712 - 12/02/20 08:14 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Thanks guys, I appreciate the kind words. Of course, it's not all selfless... Sharing what I've learned helps to reinforce the lessons and keep my own mind on point. If you can get to where you can teach others about something, you've probably got a pretty good handle on it.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SynKyd] 1
#27075941 - 12/06/20 07:03 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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So far it's looking like a pretty classic bull flag. Just a little pit stop to construct a bit of a base from which to move higher. BTC tested the 20 day moving average several times over the past month and now that average has risen up to price. For those with trading positions, I would keep a partial position stop (or a ladder of stops) somewhere between $18000-$18300. We want to see the 20 day moving average hold, and many of the daily candles have bounced in that area over the past few weeks. If those levels break down, I would expect a deeper drawdown... the only problem is, you need to have some alerts set, because even though a drawdown could be deep, it could also be very short lived, which unless you're actively watching, you won't be able to capitalize on.
Hence my problem with actively trading crypto. A 24 hour market that moves with such volatility, it's enough to make any trader lose his or her marbles trying to game it. I am optimistic for further upside, but not dismissive of the potential for a deeper selloff. If $18K breaks down, it is not inconceivable that we would see a relatively quick test of $14K. If I had stops in place that got triggered, I would definitely be looking for any signs of support to reload at $14K and maaaaybe even $12K, although if it does fall that low, I imagine you'd have to have your order in ahead of time to get a buy fill that low.
My bias is for more upside.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ManianFH] 2
#27082815 - 12/10/20 06:27 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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I think BTC is a good stash away trade... have felt that way ever since I first started using it (on hotdogs and steak dinners... naturally ).
The pull back so far has been rather orderly, although the consistent series of lower highs on the daily chart does indicate that there is quite a bit of supply here (this is corroborated by miner's outflows to exchanges running above average). Even so, the volume over the week as we've pulled back, hasn't been particularly high. That's what you want to see on a pullback, a slow steady re-test of the breakout that eventually bounces on volume.
While I would like to see $18K BTC hold firm, the operative range for longer term consolidation is $16-20K. We might bounce around in that channel for a while. If $16K breaks, $12-$14K comes into play as the next probable support zone. But again, it doesn't look like there is a massive rush to the exits here, just digesting the huge move we saw over the past few months.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: eLeSDenes] 1
#27084773 - 12/11/20 09:36 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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I considered it, but I just wasn't sure about my ability to reliably maintain a validator node and not get garnished for being offline or doing it wrong. I haven't programmed shit for decades, I travel away from my home base on the regular... that's mostly what I'm concerned about. It's nice to have the added liquidity benefit, but I've been holding ETH for so long, and believe they are one of the most - if not the most - put together crypto project out there... I can't imagine I'd be compelled to sell any before the network upgrade fully rolls out anyway.
I just don't want to risk fucking it up.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ChemicalSpark] 1
#27091712 - 12/16/20 07:58 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Well isn't that nice
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper] 2
#27092050 - 12/16/20 11:55 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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The icing on the cake for me, is that the (now several times delayed) civil rehabilitation plan for the bankrupt MtGox estate was finally filed December 15th and is pending review by the Japanese court. This has been a looooong time coming, and because of the tremendous growth of Bitcoin since the hack (BTC was, I believe, trading somewhere around $1000 at the time), it's stacking up to be a very sweet payday... despite the estate having lost some 80% of its aggregate assets.  
It's pretty interesting... if MtGox was still working and (BIG IF) I had held on through thick and thin, my stake would be closing in on seven figures. But frankly, I'm not sure I would have weathered it as well as it looks to be turning out, by simply having the rug pulled out from under me and the diminished assets frozen from me. Ultimately, at today's prices, I'm looking at a ~1200% return on the money I originally wired to MtGox back in 2013.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] 1
#27095391 - 12/18/20 07:30 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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This is a powerful move. I wouldn't want to chase it by buying up here, and there's nothing wrong with selling some on the way up to give you a cash cushion to buy back on a pullback... but the thing about issues that hit all time highs is that they tend to be repeat offenders. You want to give your winners room to work and not micromanage them too much. And bitcoin has been a huge winner. I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of $19-20K, but I think that it would be bought very quickly. I also wouldn't be too surprised if we didn't revisit the breakout level, there is a lot of institutional buying interest in crypto right now.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Hikeadellic] 1
#27097733 - 12/19/20 01:06 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Hey Hikeadellic, it is important to understand that turning "losing trades into non consensual HODLs" is antithetical to the concept of active trading. Distilled down, this is emblematic of a severe lack of discipline. Note that I am not trying to suggest that a "HODL" strategy is necessarily a bad approach (in fact it is my preferred approach to a nascent asset facing accelerated adoption such as crypto is now). I am only suggesting that if you don't plan your trade and trade your plan, you're pretty much flying blind and trading on little more than hope as your primary strategy.
To your inquiry on stop losses. If you are actively trading, you absolutely need to get comfortable using stops; learning where to place your stops, and how to instinctively modify your position size based on how good your entry is (i.e. how close it is to a reliable stop level).
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus]
#27098263 - 12/19/20 06:40 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Lophosaurus said: It's all about BTC right now. Do you think people will put their BTC profits or other money into altcoins like they did a couple years ago. "Altcoin Season" as I have heard it called before. Will that happen again soon, in a smaller way of course, or is it just all about BTC from here out?
What do you guys think about "Altcoin Seanson" coming back?
Some altcoins will move big, sure, but I can't imagine the moves will be as broad as they were in 2017 when the retail mentality was "throw a dart at anything with decentralized/blockchain/crypto in its name and make 2-10x inside a few months". The markets are getting deeper by the day with institutional money continuing to come in. This money will gravitate to the major assets in the space (i.e. BTC & to a lesser extent ETH), and most of these big accounts won't be interested in trying to bounce between BTC/ETH and into smaller names. Frankly, they are too well capitalized and the markets for most altcoin assets simply aren't liquid enough to support the level of buying/selling that these guys would need to do to have a meaningful impact on their portfolio. There would be huge price slippage and that just isn't something that type of investor will tolerate.
Institutional investors are the strong hands that tend to hold asset allocations along the order of years to decades, and because of that (in light of BTC's 21 million max supply), there will very likely continue to be a liquidity crisis of sorts, whereby the demand for BTC so far outstrips available supply that the price has nowhere to go but parabolically higher. That is evidenced by the move we are bearing witness to now, and while I'm sure there will be some gut wrenching selloffs along the way, the tailwinds for BTC have grown so tremendous that I would caution against trying to game these moves by selling your holdings in hopes of a pullback to buy back in on the cheap (or to try your hand at reallocating to what may appear to be an underperforming altcoin that you think needs to play catch up).
Big money by and large wants BTC, plain and simple. And there isn't a lot of it. Don't overthink it.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
#27100461 - 12/21/20 08:02 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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I haven't looked into Graph, but based solely on what you posted sh4d0ws, it sounds like a type of oracle network, along the same vein as Chainlink and Zap. I could be wrong. It's also worth noting that Coinbase Ventures was an investor, so it's not surprising that the parent company would list the coin to catalyze interest.
In separate news, BTC and crypto in general see a selloff to start the week, with BTC dropping from $24K to $22K in less than 5 hours, but buyers have shown up rather quickly (so far), and BTC has retraced half of the move down. This is the issue of supply and demand, when big money wants in, they are going to be buying the dips, and they'll likely stash away those purchases for a while, further reducing supply and heating up the competition amongst buyers. Of course, if this mutated coronavirus renders the vaccines that have been developed less effective at combating the pandemic, and we generally see another big round of major risk-off behavior across global markets, all bets will be off... but seeing how BTC is responding this morning is encouraging to me.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SynKyd]
#27103688 - 12/23/20 08:10 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
SynKyd said: Wondering what people think of XRP with today’s news and a big correction, buying opportunity in the next few days for some short term bounce I think..........thoughts?
The SEC is going after Ripple and it's exec's, some exchanges have already delisted it. You might be able to make a trade off of it, but I wouldn't touch it, way too much headline risk.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: eLeSDenes]
#27109546 - 12/26/20 06:41 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Yeah, you really can't get too cute with your trading approach... well, you can, but you often just end up spinning your wheels and missing out. It's generally best to stick with the most liquid, proven winners that exhibit sustained momentum (i.e. BTC & ETH). I still have some diversification in my personal account (mostly relics from the 2017 ICO frenzy), namely XTZ, and smaller bags of NEO, TZROP, HBAR and NCT in that order. For accounts I manage on behalf of others, it's roughly 50/50 BTC/ETH and around 5-10% XTZ. It's been good.
Given the space's history, you have to expect there will be some rip your face off corrections sometime soon. But for now the momentum remains strong, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with the chart. If you are getting an itchy trigger finger to sell, and provided you keep your assets on exchange, I would set a partial position stop below the prior day's low, and keep ratcheting it up until the trend breaks. I would only sell partial positions though, as even a lower daily low is likely to be met with buying given the intense momentum BTC is seeing now.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27110287 - 12/27/20 08:02 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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The short-term trading action is getting a little more choppy than usual up here between $27-28K BTC, this type of increase in volatility is not atypical at short or longer term tops, although there is no guarantee that it is indicative a top will be occurring (sorry to disappoint, but you can only figure that out in hindsight). For now, the 20 hour moving average has been holding dips since the Christmas Eve launch off of $23,000. The fact that I'm even using an hourly chart as a barometer is indicative of how strong this trend has become. Nevertheless, all trends will come to an end, we just don't know exactly when.
So on that note, by no means would I advocate selling your entire stack. However if you like to trade around, or if you're the type of person who will be kicking yourself if you don't sell anything and BTC falls to test $23-25K (a distinct possibility that would not invalidate the longer term prevailing trend on a daily chart), then sell just a little bit to scratch the itch. It doesn't need to be a lot, just enough so you can maintain your psychological fortitude, knowing that you did something that will help insulate you from unnecessary fear and panic when BTC does eventually pull back.
That ETH though... moving up and out of the range. Very nice.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27110353 - 12/27/20 09:04 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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In accordance with my above post, I am scratching the itch and sold a piece of my BTC @ $27,200. I will sell a similar piece of ETH if it tags $725. ETH lagged BTC during the Christmas rally, and is only now breaking out of that range, so I expect it can run a bit farther (short-term) more easily than BTC which appears to be digesting its Christmas rally and likely faces some psychological resistance the closer it gets to $30,000. I will continue to trim lightly if we continue to breakout to higher levels, but only up to a maximum of 1/3 of my total account size. Caveat: unless I can catch a HUGE short-squeeze that appears to be a blowoff top (this would be indicated by a rapid move of $5,000+ in < 1 day), in which case I would move up to 50% of the account to cash.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SynKyd]
#27110654 - 12/27/20 12:35 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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I know it can be tempting (and is often correct) to dump underperformers. However I believe we are sitting on a longer term support zone for XTZ, and given the fact that they have already settled with the SEC, have an active foundation with a big warchest and have been inking deals that promote real world use of their platform, not to mention the 5%+ annual staking reward; I think you can hold this one as an altcoin that maintains good upside potential for over the longer haul. I suspect the progress on Ethereum 2.0 is what took some of the wind out of XTZ's sails, but ultimately the platform is not just idle hype as so many altcoins have become, there is real development and real business being conducted with XTZ. My current allocation is ~8% of aggregate.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27111801 - 12/28/20 08:06 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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I upped my ask on the initial slice of ETH I'm looking to sell into strength. With the issue hitting multi-year highs, and much stronger short-term relative strength as compared to BTC, my ask moved up from $725 to $777.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27112214 - 12/28/20 12:41 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
eLeSDenes said: Why do you even sell? It is just getting started 
Just part of my trading discipline. I am rarely all in or all out in any single transaction (with the exception of some high velocity/leveraged stock option trades). Been trading in one form or another for close to two decades now, and trading in scales is what keeps me in the game over the longer term. I bought my first BTC at $243 and my first lot of ETH at $11. Back in 2017, it was scaled sales of BTC up to $16,500 that took away some of the sting from the huge correction we incurred shortly thereafter. Not to mention some particularly choice sales of ETH right near the highs of $1400 and XRP in scales as indicated in this post as follows:
Quote:
geokills said on 01/04/2018: I have also started unloading my position in XRP (initiated at $0.17/xrp), first quarter-size sale at $1.19, another quarter-size sale at $2.80 and a third sale this morning at $3.20, leaving me with 20% of my original position.
With regard to the specific reasons for why I choose to sell in scales, my post yesterday covers it pretty well:
Quote:
[...] if you like to trade around, or if you're the type of person who will be kicking yourself if you don't sell anything and BTC falls to test $23-25K (a distinct possibility that would not invalidate the longer term prevailing trend on a daily chart), then sell just a little bit to scratch the itch. It doesn't need to be a lot, just enough so you can maintain your psychological fortitude, knowing that you did something that will help insulate you from unnecessary fear and panic when BTC does eventually pull back.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Gypsy Boy]
#27113961 - 12/29/20 10:50 AM (3 years, 30 days ago) |
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BTC & ETH, because these are the most accessible to large institutions that have the capital required to move markets in a big way. Smaller issues may have larger moves, but those will probably be on account of a lack of liquidity, which isn't a good baseline strategy for seeking out gains, as limited liquidity slices both ways.
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