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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 1
#26890227 - 08/20/20 02:51 PM (3 years, 5 months ago) |
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A list of claimants from the first round of MtGox bankruptcy proceedings leaked approved claim numbers and their owner's name. The bankers just needed to do a little reconnaissance on researching the names to find their associated mailing addresses.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: tak]
#26897022 - 08/24/20 12:02 PM (3 years, 5 months ago) |
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Whoa, tak! I love seeing you pop up around the boards every once in a while. Hope life is treating you well. Working at a crypto exchange in San Fran, for real? Kraken? Coinbase? Do tell!
As for BSOV, I'm not sure "deflationary by design" makes much sense to me. I understand the premise to promote HODLing and utilization strictly as a store of value. But even stores of value need to be functional if they are to hold any real value. If the asset continues to deflate with every transaction that is executed, it will - on a long enough time scale - cease to exist, so what kind of value is that, really? Further, the volume on that coin is (I suppose as expected) anemic. I can't in good conscience get behind that as an investment opportunity, even as it is somewhat interesting.
For what it's worth, bitcoin on a long enough time scale is de facto deflationary as well, since private keys will be lost and the coins associated with them, forever inaccessible. This would occur certainly when the BTC hard cap of 21 million max supply is reached, although likely well before that point.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 1
#26911594 - 09/01/20 10:16 AM (3 years, 4 months ago) |
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Here we go. ETH breaking out to new highs on the heels of the DeFi fury. The short of the long of it is that yield farming products such as yearn.finance (a new one seems to pop up every day) require ETH fees to be paid for use and there is speculation that yearn.finance specifically will introduce an ETH yielding vault which will effectively lock up a large portion of the ETH supply should it come to fruition as some are expecting. The pull back to $370 was deeper than I expected, but the asset has recovered quickly and is now validating the early August breakout. BTC back above $12K, as some other alts that have had a good run such as XTZ remain under pressure, presumably as some XTZ holders are reallocating their exposure to the various DeFi products & ETH.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ChemicalSpark] 1
#26913558 - 09/02/20 11:06 AM (3 years, 4 months ago) |
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Yes, unfortunately that was a pretty strong rejection move! I was out of cell service camping for the last 24 hours, didn't expect to come home to this, but such is the nature of the asset class and it's exceptional volatility.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: InnerWisdom] 2
#26916188 - 09/03/20 06:38 PM (3 years, 4 months ago) |
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As I mentioned in this thread two weeks ago...
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geokills said:
It is worth noting that there has been increased correlation with equity markets, and with the S&P now hitting all time highs, in light of a generally shitty macro backdrop but buoyed by exceptionally accommodative and inflation tolerant central banks, there is a risk that a fall back in the global equity markets could catalyze a knee-jerk reaction to raise cash from crypto portfolios as well. Despite whatever short term volatility may persist, I believe the wind is at the back of the crypto sails on account of accommodative monetary policy that further devalues fiat currencies worldwide.
With today came a big selloff in equities, and while it does disappoint me to see that the crypto asset class is confirming some bonafide correlation with traditional equities, it isn't terribly surprising. What will be the tell here, is the relative strength. Which is to say, can crypto recover more quickly than equities? Which asset class will print new highs first? My hope is that, should equities continue to falter, crypto may decouple and stabilize after an initial shock in tandem with other risk assets. But who is to say? My crystal ball has been broken for the entirety of my experience attempting to use the damn thing.
I really don't see anything particularly meaningful to explain today's crypto moves other than the risk-off stance from equities' lead. Bitcoin has been marking time trading mostly sideways for the past month, hovering right around the highs it was printing last summer. While this pullback is faster and deeper than I would have hoped, it presently remains a valid test of $10K, a prior resistance and psychologically significant level that should now hold as support.
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ChemicalSpark said: I know very little about crypto price trends, or anything really, but the consensus on reddit seems to be that if btc falls below 10.5k resistance level, then there could be a significant pull back. So I’m contemplating setting a stop loss around the 10.4k mark which would hopefully save some capital and allow me to buy back in at a lower price.
While seemingly improbable, for all I know, BTC could be at $5,000 next week (crazier things have happened in crypto history!). That being said, once we've blown out of the bottom of the recent trading range (which was $11100-12000), selling shouldn't be what you're thinking about -- UNLESS you overcommitted yourself and expect to need the money you have committed in the next year. If anything, you should be thinking about incrementally committing additional capital, or otherwise sitting on your hands.
One of the problems with attempting to trade around too actively in crypto, is that the moves are so flippin' fast. By the time your stop is hit @ $10.4K and you've realized it, $10K is hit within a minute or two and then we've bounced right back up to your stop level. Unless you were watching the action in real time and have nerves of steel, you're unlikely to make a profitable swap on that trade. And now you're in cash, having sold within <1% of where the asset is currently trading, after having bounced at $10K. It's not a comfortable position to be in, and if you don't actively trade, or really want to dedicate the time and tremendous emotional energy learning how to do it, it's probably something you should let sit on the shelf.
You can still trade around your core position, but if we've already fallen out of the bottom of the range, forget about it. Instead, when you see your account growing and you start to think to yourself, "Wow this is pretty impressive!" That is the time you should be thinking about taking some profits. Doesn't have to be a lot, just take 10-20% of your trade to the bank. If it keeps raining money, take another 10-20% off. Eventually, you'll be privy to a bloodbath and have the dry powder necessary to take advantage of it.
Easier said than done, but that's the best way to trade, in my opinion. Sell the rips and buy the dips. Occasionally, I do advocate for going in big on an outsized technical trade, and in those instances stop losses will be necessary to avoid catastrophic losses. But generally speaking, if you believe in the overall thesis and you have a long time horizon, don't sweat the swings too much. Just work on your discipline to take some profits when you start to think about "how rich you'll be if this move keeps going", and relish in the satisfaction of putting that money back to work at lower levels, or even at higher levels if there has been a long period of consolidation which has carved out a solid base, that the asset then begins to breakout higher from.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 1
#26977730 - 10/09/20 10:32 PM (3 years, 3 months ago) |
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Concur. Despite a hard swoon on the heels of the risk off reaction to the initial news of the pandemic, crypto has performed rather well. Just to scope the three coins I've tended to focus on throughout the bulk of this discussion...
- Bitcoin (BTC) started 2020 around $7,200 and is up ~60% since then
- Tezos (XTZ) started around $1.35 and is up ~67%
- Ethereum (ETH) started around $130 and is up a whopping ~190%
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 1
#27001150 - 10/24/20 11:52 AM (3 years, 3 months ago) |
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A wrapped token is an ERC20 token on the Ethereum network with a value identical to the asset it represents. Thus, Wrapped Bitcoin is a way to utilize BTC directly on Ethereum. If you are seeking to invest in cryptocurrency through a holding strategy, there is no reason to hold a wrapped token over its native counterpart. The purpose of wrapped tokens is to allow distributed applications to operate more efficiently, as they can process transactions for other blockchain assets without having to transact across multiple blockchains.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 1
#27016161 - 11/01/20 06:07 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Haven't made much comment in some time, but... Just buy some fucking bitcoin already.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 4
#27023196 - 11/05/20 12:27 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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In my view, it could still have a really long ways to go. In the three days since I advised "just buy some fucking bitcoin already" - it's moved from $13,700 to $15,000 (edit a few hours after posting: $16,000). I bought my first bitcoin at $243, and I'm still buying bitcoin in the five figures.
Now I'm not saying to aggressively chase it, but I can't think of any reason why anyone with investible assets shouldn't own at least some bitcoin. It is, by orders of magnitude, better at servicing the needs of global monetary storage without being subject to the traditional dilutive effects of inflation or confiscation. And for the naysayers who like to complain about high transaction fees or limited transaction throughput, you can sacrifice some of the innate security of crypto by utilizing it through traditional payment rails.
The fact that Square cash and Robinhood have implemented crypto payment rails that integrate with the modern financial system, and especially the recent news that PayPal will be doing the same, will allow for transaction speed/scalability and fees comparable to any other traditional payment system. The more these modern fintech companies involve themselves with crypto, the more others will FOMO and add their own payment rails for the asset (e.g. Amazon, eBay, et al).
MicroStrategy (MSTR), a Nasdaq listed software analytics / business intelligence company recently put half of their liquid reserve (that's $475,000,000!) into bitcoin, buying at an average price of around $9,800. I would have a very hard time believing they'll be the only ones who see the value of diversifying assets away from fiat currency risk.
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Edited by geokills (11/05/20 10:24 PM)
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 1
#27030463 - 11/09/20 04:12 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Here's an interesting article: Financial Advisors, Bitcoin Is the Next Amazon
Both bitcoin and Ethereum are flagging right now (trading sideways in a relatively tight range after a break out). If bitcoin moves above $16,000, I think it's got a fair shot of a quick run to test its old highs at around $20,000 (+25%). Ethereum's trading pattern isn't quite as clean, but is also flagging and might even be building a very sloppy cup and handle. I think a break above $475 is buyable, and a lasting break above $500 could lead to a march back to $800-900. This one could also pretty easily settle back to $400 and there wouldn't be anything wrong with the prevailing uptrend.
On Tezos, I actually just added to my position yesterday at around $2. It has been a house of pain for the past few months after its breathtaking rally to all time highs. They have a well endowed foundation to support their growing ecosystem, and continue to announce new use cases for their blockchain, such as tZERO and Tynton Capital's planned data infrastructure technology fund, which will be issued on the Tezos blockchain. This one is obviously a relatively new player, and although there is a lot of technical damage in its chart, I still like it for a longer term speculative position.
My personal allocations are as follows:
- 62% BTC*
- 17% ETH
- 11% XTZ
- 5% TZROP (tZERO)
- 4% NEO
- <1% NCT
- <1% HBAR
*Note that due to my MtGox civil rehabilitation claim, my exposure to BTC is larger than it otherwise would be. If these funds were disbursed today, I would rebalance some of the unlocked BTC toward ETH, as I prefer relatively equal weighting between the two.
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Asante said: Bitcoin is stupid, the technology. Maintaining the bitcoin network costs the electric power of several nuclear plants, there are significant fees and only 2 transactions per second.
I respectfully disagree. By nature of the network's simplicity (i.e. doing one thing and doing it well) including its broad reach, bitcoin is the most secure crypto asset available. The integration of crypto payment rails into existing financial infrastructure makes its blockchain transaction throughput and fee structure moot for practical usage. Now that we are starting to see that consumers can send bitcoin instantaneously and with fees comparable to fiat transfer, through services consumers are already familiar with (e.g. Square cash, PayPal, and I would eventually expect Amazon and Apple amongst others to FOMO on board), there is increasingly less friction with regard to usability. Additionally, because these major financial services can "silo" their own stash of crypto, the number of transactions they need to record on the base blockchain will be an exceedingly small fraction of the actual number of individual transactions processed.
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Northerner said: I saw US guvmint withdraw 65000+ Bitcoin the other day from a parked wallet, that's over a billion dollars worth, because they think it's stolen from a dnm and therefore think they have a right to it.
I don't know how they did it, but now they have started with this the primary use of Bitcoin is dead. The secondary use of Bitcoin, paying ransom to gangs, will soon be equally dead
Bitcoin was never designed to service illegal trade. It was designed to be used as a medium of exchange and/or store of value free from the highly manipulated fractional reserve currency systems that are constantly losing value through inflationary policies enabled by governments and the federal reserve banking system. The fact that there is an added privacy layer which allowed for it to be used relatively easily for illicit purposes, doesn't mean that this is its primary purpose.
With regard to the billion dollars of bitcoin that the US Attorney's Office confiscated, there was no failure of the bitcoin network in this action. The government was able to identify the owner of the wallet(s) in question and force him/her to relinquish the private keys. This case isn't yet closed, as the courts must decide whether the circumstances warrant said asset seizure. Although if the IRS and the US Attorney's Office made the complaint public, it is likely they have enough evidence to convince the courts of their right to confiscate the bitcoin.
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Edited by geokills (11/09/20 04:31 PM)
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Northerner] 2
#27031153 - 11/10/20 07:22 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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What is investing if not speculating? I find it silly that "speculation" is taken by some as a dirty word, an indication of lacking due diligence or otherwise wantonly throwing money in hopes that "the greater fool" might throw around even more. Speculation is a necessary element of investing. Even for an income investor who buys dividend stocks, s/he is speculating that the company's revenue stream will produce ample cash flow to service payments of that dividend. Likewise with housing, although a tangible asset which will likely maintain some intrinsic value, we still speculate that property demand and thus rents will be high enough to service ongoing maintenance, mortgage and tax expenses. And the small business owner starting their own coffee shop or restaurant? Surely they are speculating that their product will be attractive and consistent enough to bring in the customers that they need to make ends meet (and then something unforeseen like the pandemic hits, requiring adaptation or failure). I will grant you that there are varying degrees of risk across these examples, but I cannot see a situation where some speculative future expectation isn't required to be met in order for the resource allocation to produce a viable return.
On energy and carbon footprints, the energy problem isn't particularly a bitcoin problem, as all global industries have an incentive to move toward renewable energy sources. Successive studies from the University of Cambridge have shown that bitcoin miners are increasingly utilizing renewables in their energy mix. Couple this with layer two solutions and the more traditional payment rails through familiar financial systems such as PayPal, Square, ApplePay, Amazon, Venmo, you name it... as the momentum and public understanding surrounding unbeholden digital money continues, we will have plenty of systems that can provide the infrastructure for the common man's utilization of crypto as a payment method, without even having to post those transactions to the blockchain, thus requiring none of the proof-of-work energy expenditure or transaction limits that keep getting brought up.
As a thought exercise... If bitcoin is a dinosaur, what then is gold? Gold has been here longer than the dinosaurs, is heavy, difficult to physically protect and still consistently inflates its supply by 2,500-3,000 tons of new gold mined each year. The total amount of above ground gold in the world is expected to be just over 190,000 tons. That's 1.3-1.6% inflation rate for an investment in something described as a hedge against inflation (global inflation rates are over 3% in aggregate). This year's bitcoin block reward halving reduced its inflation rate from 3.6% to 1.8%, nearly matching gold, and it will only continue to fall.
The writing is on the wall. With a truly decentralized network fully resistant to both government manipulation and inflation, including the ability to invisibly carry an infinite amount of wealth wherever you go by memorizing 12, 18 or 24 words (i.e. your private key), not to mention the existing financial services world beginning to incorporate easy to use, instantaneous and low or no cost payment rails, I am comfortable speculating that bitcoin isn't going anywhere and that we are still in the early stages of adopting a new monetary paradigm.
Also see: Why Billionaires are Suddenly Accumulating Bitcoin after 113% gain
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Northerner]
#27031770 - 11/10/20 02:40 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Northerner said: All your examples of speculation have real world implications. That is investing. The money actually does something. Bitcoin does not.
"Real world implications" sounds broadly vague. The example I provided of buying a dividend paying stock doesn't have any more of a real world implication that buying bitcoin, unless you are buying directly through a secondary issuance by the company (in which case you are financing them). In practice, the vast majority of retail stock trading is done on a secondary market that doesn't have any direct affect on the underlying company or its ability to conduct business.
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Like I said I do like the implications of crypto. Inflation is driven by people wanting more money and the government trying to balance the needs of people with the supply so there isn't either too much money or too little. And you would take that check away?
The ability of our central banks to leverage economies into vast amounts of overspending, thereby devaluing the currency at an ever quicker clip, is not what I would call a "check". I can recognize that an elastic money supply sounds good in theory, but in practice no government has been able to responsibly manage it over a long enough period of time, as is being made clear with our modern economies today.

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The real reason billionaires like Bitcoin is greed. If they amass enough of it they can do away with these controls that serve public interest and rake in even more billions. What do you think billionaires do with their lives? What is their primary motivation? Are they trying to be remembered for helping children? Maybe making the world a better place? Revolutionising healthcare to reduce suffering? No. They are out to fuck anyone who gets in their way so they can make their obscene piles of cash even bigger. Anything billionaires want is by default bad for the rest of us.
I don't buy it. Yes, extreme greed exists. But there is nothing inherently wrong with taking advantage of the capitalist system that we are a part of. Yes, I'm sure there are plenty of asshole billionaires out there, just as I'm certain there are plenty of asshole poor people, just as there are greedy selfish assholes among every financial class between the two extremes. On the other hand, there are also plenty of billionaires who recognize their windfall and want to promote a healthier use of their extreme fortune. See The Giving Pledge.
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Gold is a physical tangible thing that has many applications from jewellery to electronics to trading. It doesn't rust and it got excellent properties. It's a marvel of nature.
And bitcoin is a marvel of technology. The first digital currency to avoid the double-spend problem and cannot be manipulated at its core through inflation or confiscation. Call it the red pill if you like, but it sounds like you are letting your jaded feelings contribute to a mistrust of what has the potential to be the greatest financial equalizer in the history of humanity.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 1
#27032055 - 11/10/20 05:51 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Ethereum looking like it wants to break out right here right now, moving above $460 on volume. Potential resistance @ $470. We are hugging the upper bollinger band and the bands are pretty wide, so honestly I would expect to see more sideways action before a sustainable move higher... But this is crypto. A break above the 52 week high @ $490 is blue sky territory, with minimal practical resistance after that. Heady days are here again.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 4
#27043686 - 11/17/20 11:03 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Another 52 week high for bitcoin as it closes in on $18,000. Is has spent next to none of its existence at these levels, so while the all time highs at $20,000 are a psychological marker, there shouldn't much resistance from here. Of course, this thing has been chugging higher in a huge way, so it will have to rest and pull back at some point... just not sure when. On a long term macro thesis, it's not really worth actively trading too much, because if you believe in the big story, this asset is going markedly higher over the coming years.
ETH closing in on its 52 week high as well, I would suspect ETH has more potential near term upside than BTC, for anyone who does prefer to trade more actively. XTZ just marking time as it carves out a base at $2.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Envix]
#27056837 - 11/25/20 09:48 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Love the idea, but not currently involved. There have been a few too many exploits and self-dealings for me to feel comfortable locking up my positions in the space. I'll wait a while longer for more of the kinks to get worked out and volatility to dampen.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 1
#27057179 - 11/25/20 02:07 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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I do not day trade crypto, mostly because the markets are still quite thin and so larger positions are likely to incur significant slippage in execution price, especially when using market orders for stop losses. As a secondary consideration, exchanges in the US do not issue 1099-B's, which makes the tax accounting a royal pain in the ass if you have hundreds or thousands of closing trades to sort at the end of the year. If you do all of your trading on a single exchange, this issue can be mitigated by using specialized software to do the calculations for you. I do this for the corporate account I manage on Kraken, with https://cointracking.info/
FYI, day trading can be very frustrating and very difficult to do well. You need to be exceptionally disciplined, patient, and in control of your emotions. The same basic principles that apply to stock trading will apply to day trading, so read up on the lessons in my stocks thread. In particular, read this post I made this morning for an idea of my process in actively trading: https://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/27056803#27056803
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27058719 - 11/26/20 12:40 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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To the woodshed! Thanksgiving sale going on now. Bitcoin black friday came early
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
#27064675 - 11/30/20 01:36 PM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Hard to hold predictions, rather simply take a long term positive view. The buying into the Thanksgiving weakness to take us right back to the highs is an impressive sign. Bitcoin is finally hitting a more mainstream financial narrative, and the masses are underexposed to the asset class. One of the big headlines to cross over the weekend, and what I suspect helped juice the recovery: Guggenheim fund files to be able to invest up to almost 500 million in bitcoin through GBTC. The $500 million figure isn't even the important news, it's just another big investor in a long line of big money that has indicated a fresh appetite for bitcoin.
A ton of the traders on the StockMarketMentor trading forum have also taken interest in various equity exposure options to BTC... GBTC, ETHE, RIOT, MARA. So there is retail buying involved as well. I actually bought a few calls on MARA today just for fun, as it looks like the move higher in both bitcoin on its cash basis, as well as its equity counterparts, is not yet over.
As for where it'll be in 4-6 months... it's just impossible to say. But I do think that given the big money interests taking notice, pullbacks will continue to be bought, and I would not be surprised to see $25-30K tagged in relatively short order, but that's not a prediction per se. Buckle up, cause as we all know, this asset can exhibit staggering levels of volatility when things get sporty. Right now that's to the upside, but it can (and will) cut both ways.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Faustian]
#27065906 - 12/01/20 07:54 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Faustian said: looking for a place to buy coins that won't fuck me is this possible?
I bought some of my first bitcoin off Coinbase for $243, but I'm a Kraken man all the way. Kraken has experienced a few outages, but that's typical for ANY exchange, even major equity brokers, as this happens to me on my TDAmeritrade/ThinkorSwim trading platform when volume peaks during market opening on major news events, and members in my stock trading forum experience it across all retail brokers from time to time.
Anecdotally, I recently learned that one of our first members here at the Shroomery now works at Kraken (who claimed his job is mostly "putting out fires" ), which is pretty sweet, and they are one of the few major exchanges not to have experienced a deleterious hacking incident. 
Back in the early days I would use LocalBitcoins as well, but I'm not sure if that's any easier than an exchange these days, as I believe they now require full personal verification.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27066041 - 12/01/20 10:21 AM (3 years, 1 month ago) |
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Anyone? I'm sure, but they are likely few and far between. Generally speaking, it has been way less stressful to sit on this emerging asset class and ride the macro theme of it being an inflation/currency hedge in conjunction with expectations for broadening adoption.
If you want to actively trade, I would strongly suggest equities, as they are much more liquid and you have many more options to choose from. Most crypto assets trade largely in tandem, whereas differentiated sectors in the equity markets have more potential to move very differently on any given day, thereby creating more opportunities for nimble trading.
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