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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Psilosopherr] * 2
    #26656087 - 05/07/20 09:28 PM (3 years, 8 months ago)

A halving is a reduction in supply.  If supply is reduced and demand remains equal or increases, price should rise.  Of course, as these events are preprogrammed they are known in advance, so they should theoretically be priced in well in advance of/or leading up to their occurence.

While the deflationary premise behind a periodic halving of the block reward should help support prices, it's not something I bank on in any measure.  The macro thesis behind bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, is a far more important influence on price.  Staying long.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: deadwk]
    #26713852 - 06/02/20 11:39 AM (3 years, 7 months ago)

Bit of a rejection move this morning, however key assets such as BTC and ETH did nothing more but fall back into their recent trading ranges after an attempt to breakout overnight, with ETH in fact still in breakout territory as of this writing.  XTZ, a large personal holding, trades more thinly and suffered a deeper initial draw down, but has since (as of this writing) consolidated at the top of its recent trading range and appears stronger, on a relative basis, with respect to BTC, although ETH is the clear standout from a technical perspective.

I think we continue to go higher.  The stimulative actions taken by central banks worldwide can only help bolster one of the basic tenets of bitcoin specifically.  Namely that it is not beholden to any government and cannot be diluted beyond the formulaic schedule already written into the software that has a finite ending point.  However, because of increased institutional investment in the crypto space, I would still be mindful of potential weakness that could be catalyzed by broader news events related to the coronavirus and/or social unrest that could result in a risk off reaction generally, which as we saw in March, affected crypto just as violently as it affected traditional equity markets.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Asante] * 2
    #26807733 - 07/06/20 07:03 PM (3 years, 6 months ago)

I have added exposure to Tezos over the past two months.  They are about to settle a class action lawsuit (for a pittance of their aggregate wealth) which should remove the onus from the SEC to prosecute them for an illegal securities offering.  After the $25 million they are expected to pay out, they still have hundreds of millions of dollars left to nurture their ecosystem.  Technically the price action is a little weak, but some meaningful support finally came in over the last 24 hours.  That steep downward slope on the 20 day moving average is a concern, and where the price is topping out now, but that's just short term stuff anyway.  I like the project.

Ethereum is still the most technically and fundamentally interesting to me right now.

And bitcoin... always bitcoin.

Same shit I've been saying since the first post of this thread :tongue2:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #26820161 - 07/12/20 09:12 PM (3 years, 6 months ago)

Tezos has been seeing some strong buying over the past week after faking out to a short term lower-low, now back up to the top of its trading range.  Keep an eye on ETH as well, if we see a move that holds above $250 ETH and/or above $3.10 XTZ, I think these will have room to run considerably higher.  Wouldn't buy right here though, as we are simply back at the top of the range, which is de facto resistance.  Nevertheless, the action is encouraging.  Set alerts for BTC > $10,000 as well.  If all three move above these levels, that's likely to be a major green light for further upside.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ElViajero]
    #26823602 - 07/14/20 05:50 PM (3 years, 6 months ago)

I think LINK is a great idea.  ZAP was one of my focused positions in the early days, but their team just couldn't keep up the momentum.  I lost sight of the thesis behind the necessity of oracles in a smart contract universe, and even once I remembered how integral they will be to the future system, even watching LINK drop back to ~$2 during the initial US coronavirus-based sell off, I still neglected to add it to my portfolio.  This has been a long running mistake of mine.  Not sure why, as I have discussed LINK several times in this thread already, and yet here I am with none on the books, knowing (in hindsight) that it would have been a really quick 400% gain from where I was looking at it just a few months ago.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #26827579 - 07/16/20 06:28 PM (3 years, 6 months ago)

Just a quick post to note that BTC volatility has contracted significantly.  At around 4%, this is about as tight as I've seen the bollinger bands get.  Volatility is cyclical.  Traders should be ready for a big move, when a base is built this tightly, the subsequent breakout is typically very fast with a lot of follow through.

Specifically, this means that if you have a large trading position in BTC, you should exit or at least lighten up significantly if price breaks to the downside (conservative traders could use $9K as their stop, but I think $8,800 is more appropriate given the generally higher volatility of this asset class).  A move above $9,500 would be an initial buy signal that should quickly test resistance at $10,000.  A move above $10,350 would be a secondary buy signal, and $10,500 would be, in my view, the last level of resistance to surmount before a big move higher.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: InnerWisdom]
    #26828891 - 07/17/20 12:33 PM (3 years, 6 months ago)

Cardano was one of my core positions for the longest while, I even had a tranche to sell from the early days when it spiked up to around $1/ADA.  However, the project's progress seemed to move soooo slowly while price bled out on the rest of my position, that I ultimately ditched it entirely quite some time ago.  It is refreshing to see that they are moving towards their next major upgrade and will have an interest bearing staking feature available on their mainnet, and I think the project has some great ideas.  But, I also think Ethereum has very similar broad goals, and because the development team for Ethereum is orders of magnitude more active, that's my horse for the time being.  From a trading standpoint, buying an asset that is up over 500% inside of 4 months is asking for trouble.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 2
    #26842898 - 07/24/20 03:18 PM (3 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Just a quick post to note that BTC volatility has contracted significantly.  At around 4%, this is about as tight as I've seen the bollinger bands get.  Volatility is cyclical.  Traders should be ready for a big move, when a base is built this tightly, the subsequent breakout is typically very fast with a lot of follow through.

Specifically, this means that if you have a large trading position in BTC, you should exit or at least lighten up significantly if price breaks to the downside (conservative traders could use $9K as their stop, but I think $8,800 is more appropriate given the generally higher volatility of this asset class).  A move above $9,500 would be an initial buy signal that should quickly test resistance at $10,000.  A move above $10,350 would be a secondary buy signal, and $10,500 would be, in my view, the last level of resistance to surmount before a big move higher.





   

$9000 support has held and we are starting to see what looks like an upside breakout in BTC as price has broken above $9,500 and is marching along the upper and expanding bollinger band.  My only problem here is that volume is fairly pathetic and we haven't actually broken out of the trading range of the past three months, even as we are starting to breakout of the volatility squeeze.  I would want to see trading volume spike significantly higher to increase my confidence in an attempt to blow through $10,000.


   

Ethereum on the other hand, is in the midst of a bonafide breakout, with good volume and an impressive multiday run off of its 20 day moving average, with consistent closes above the upper and expanding bollinger band.  Hard to buy now, as we are spot on testing the February highs and one would expect some measure of a pullback here before continuing higher... but if I didn't own any, I could even get behind starting a small position right here (in a perfect world, you would buy it on a ~10% pullback to around $260).  As I noted on July 6th, "Ethereum is still the most technically and fundamentally interesting to me right now."


   

Tezos has a really sloppy chart, likely on account of it being a much thinner market than BTC or ETH and thus subject to increased volatility.  Nevertheless, it is firmly above $3 and hopefully getting ready to continue higher to test its February highs just under $4.  If BTC and ETH continue to expand, I would have a hard time believing that XTZ won't follow suit, and because it is a relatively underowned asset with a thinner market, it should produce an outsized gain relative to the two aforementioned majors.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 2
    #26846641 - 07/26/20 07:20 PM (3 years, 6 months ago)

BTC and especially ETH, expanding strong out of their volatility squeezes.  Tezos in jail for now, but we know that low volume issues like that are going to be higher risk (and potentially higher reward, albeit with less correlation to aggregate market movement).  BTC volume is still not amazing, but it has improved and is working on chewing through $10K right now.  ETH, :toomuchacid:, taking care of business as expected up 36% from it's Jul 21st breakout.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: HamHead] * 1
    #26857208 - 08/01/20 12:19 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)
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I would buy your metals from a place like APMEX or directly from a government mint, if available to you.

Attached to this post is a "Bitcoin Investment Thesis" that Fidelity's Digital Assets arm published this month.  Most of us who follow crypto should already be well appraised of the contents, but it is encouraging to see legacy financial institutions making such specific note of the potential here for their clients.

Separately, as expected, our prolonged period of low volatility has expanded, and fortunately for those of us holding crypto, it did so to the upside without taking out the support stop levels I mentioned just over two weeks ago.  Because fast moves like this necessarily grow one's base exposure to the asset class as a percentage of total assets held, I am using today's continued strength to lighten up just a tiny bit, by selling some small tranches of BTC @ $11725 and ETH @ $373.

The near term "measured move" on BTC, since it flagged over the past few days is somewhere in the vicinity of ~$12,500.  ETH barely flagged at all, and as anticipated based on its superior price action leading up to the breakout, is proving to be the winning horse for this move.  I have another tranche of standing sell orders at $12,750 and $450, respectively.  These are relatively small sales with respect to my total exposure to the asset class, and my long term view is still enthusiastic, however incremental sales into significant strength are borne out of the understanding that it is folly to be "die hard convicted" in anything, and recognizing that no one will ever be so good as to to sell the tops and buy the bottoms with any sort of consistency.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Psilosopherr] * 2
    #26857334 - 08/01/20 02:02 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

I have paid taxes on my crypto gains since the very beginning.  The last thing I want or need is the scruitany of the IRS and the associated harsh penalties.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: nooneman] * 1
    #26858668 - 08/02/20 11:28 AM (3 years, 5 months ago)

For $100 of crypto based purchases here or there, I probably wouldn't bother reporting it either. :tongue2:

If you make an aggregate total of crypto/fiat conversions in excess of $10,000 in any tax year, you should definitely calculate and report the gain or loss, as I believe most US based exchanges are now self-reporting to the IRS all accounts that transact above that minimum.


As an aside, big dump across crypto last night.  It was a good idea to take some profits, but what I forgot to do was put in some low ball buy orders.  Sure would've been nice to reload that ETH @ $300 after selling the tranche @ $373.  Sometimes it's easy to forget how volatile these emerging markets can be.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] * 1
    #26871744 - 08/09/20 02:52 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

LogicaL Chaos said:
Chainlink is now at $14 :whattefuck2:




LOL, that reaction is exactly how I feel when I pull up a LINK chart.  :foreheadslap:

I keep saying I should/want to own it, and I still don't.  At the risk of sounding like a parrot, I can't in good conscience buy it at this level either! :crazy2:

Oh well, being heavily weighted toward ETH and XTZ has been nothing to complain about.  Still getting unsolicited offers to purchase my MtGox bitcoin claim.  Current offer is around 65% of the expected payout.  Not a terrible offer given the volatility risk and unknown amount of time until distribution... but I'll hold out, since my underlying thesis is that bitcoin will likely be higher in value at that time than it is now.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 2
    #26873482 - 08/10/20 02:31 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

Tezos (XTZ) @ $4.20 and a defacto all time high, when discounting the futures markets that were trading prior to its official release.  I am tempted to sell a tranche here, but the funny thing about assets that begin to hit all time highs, is that they tend to continue doing it for a while.  Still a relatively low volume asset compared to other assets with a $3B+ market cap, which can result in some unusually whippy volatility.  Right now that volatility is acting as rocket fuel, but it could quickly become a meteor falling back down to earth.  For those who like to trade more actively, keep an eye on this one.

ETH is flagging nicely here just under $400.  A breakout higher would suggest a measured move target of $550.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: deadwk]
    #26873855 - 08/10/20 06:36 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

Appreciate the insight deadwk.. as devil's advocate, I wonder if their predisposition to KYC is part of a more sustainable integration into the broader financial realm, which might give them preferential status when it comes to organizations that want to play entirely by the existing playbook.  On the other hand, if it really costs 1 LINK to query an oracle, that is absolutely absurd.  I'd have to imagine that as their network and asset value grows, they would reduce that burden as it is clearly unsustainable.

Still have no LINK (but regretting it). :toomuchacid:


Trader's notes: XTZ hugging the upper bollinger band on a 1 hour chart, trading outside of the upper band on 2hr+, including daily/weekly/monthly time frames.  Those who have considered selling a part of their positions should be setting trailing stops here.  Price can only eclipse the bollinger bands for so long before falling back into consolidation.  Keeping a partial stop below the intraday low, presently $4.26, makes sense.  I would suspect the stop getting hit soon (per the 3 day rule... we have had three massive days).  If it doesn't, you can re-evaluate and raise the stop level tomorrow.  Disclosure: most of my XTZ is kept in a cold wallet, and I understand the inconvenience of moving to an exchange, the tax implications and all the rest.  But it is worth keeping in mind that sending even a small slice of your base to an exchange for sale, will give you peace of mind if/when a meaningful pullback transpires.  If your original plan was to set aside these assets for long term growth, forget everything I said.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: HamHead] * 1
    #26877335 - 08/12/20 06:41 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

*Bitcoin standard :tongue2:

Honestly, who wants to lug around a bunch of metal that can be so easily confiscated, lost or stolen?  (I do understand you may be referring to backing a fiat currency with an option for equivalent gold value when you note a "gold standard".)

But generally speaking... Bitcoin is shaping up to be a more resilient, more portable store of value than gold.  You can go anywhere in the world with your full wealth safely memorized in a series of key words.  For many, carrying one's full wealth in gold even with it's relatively high value, would be difficult to do across borders.  And subject to taxation or worse, if discovered, which with the prevalence of metal detectors and other scanners at international points of entry, seems probable.

Related article: Capital Flight out of Asia Is Taking Bitcoin Express Says Max Keiser


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #26878850 - 08/13/20 04:04 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:

ETH is flagging nicely here just under $400.  A breakout higher would suggest a measured move target of $550.




Looks like we have a bonafide breakout, ETH @ $420 now on very good volume.  I would expect continuation and would advocate commiting trading capital to this asset.  With a trailing stop, of course, set no lower than $390.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: InnerWisdom]
    #26883673 - 08/16/20 03:58 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

InnerWisdom said:
What do you think will happen to btc and eth price?




Higher.  If you have no exposure, I would even commit up to half of your capital right here at the top of the current range, and reserve the other half for potential weakness as an opportunity to accumulate at a lower price.  The technical pattern is very strong, so I would expect near term pullbacks to be short lived.  We have already seen this, as evidenced by the long lower wicks over the past couple of weeks on a daily candle bar chart.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #26888995 - 08/19/20 06:43 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

Well we did slide back into the range, afterall.  BTC, ETH, and XTZ, the stalwarts of this thread, all tagged their 20 day moving averages today.  I would not expect a rapid ramp back up to test the top of the range, however I don't think we will break below $11000 BTC, $375 ETH or $3 XTZ.

It is worth noting that there has been increased correlation with equity markets, and with the S&P now hitting all time highs, in light of a generally shitty macro backdrop but buoyed by exceptionally accommodative and inflation tolerant central banks, there is a risk that a fall back in the global equity markets could catalyze a knee-jerk reaction to raise cash from crypto portfolios as well.  Despite whatever short term volatility may persist, I believe the wind is at the back of the crypto sails on account of accommodative monetary policy that further devalues fiat currencies worldwide.  It is disappointing to see the $12K BTC and $400 ETH breakouts retrace, but they are bouncing at their breakout levels right now, which is a healthy development, as long as they don't break the aforementioned levels.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ChemicalSpark] * 2
    #26890179 - 08/20/20 02:24 PM (3 years, 5 months ago)

I don't typically like to trade around too actively in crypto.  There is generally a lot of correlation between the top assets anyway, and I'd rather not trade hyperactively, which tends to reduce my performance and has the potential to make my tax filings more complicated.

I currently manage three crypto accounts weighted as follows.

Personal:
  • 54% BTC
  • 22% XTZ
  • 17% ETH
  • 5% NEO
  • 1% NCT
  • 1% HBAR


Corporate:
  • 52% ETH
  • 39% BTC
  • 9% XTZ


Family:
  • 50% ETH
  • 35% BTC
  • 15% XTZ


My personal account is skewed toward BTC because of a sizable claim I have in the MtGox civil rehabilitation proceedings.  As I am receiving offers from investment bankers every few months attempting to buy the rights to my claim at a discount, I am confident that a distribution for the recovered BTC (at somewhere between 18-23% of the original loss) will be forthcoming within the next 1-3 years and am including the conservative estimate in my allocation above.


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