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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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InvisibleAsante
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Trump's Presidency and your investments. Let's talk.
    #23816744 - 11/09/16 04:17 PM (7 years, 2 months ago)

What do you think will happen guys? I foresee great fluctuations on wall street, in the value of the dollar and precious metals. This presents risks, but also opportunities.

How do you see it?


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OfflineMorel Guy
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Re: Trump's Presidency and your investments. Let's talk. [Re: Asante]
    #23816766 - 11/09/16 04:22 PM (7 years, 2 months ago)

Gonna be a bumpy you roller coaster ride.


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"in sterquiliniis invenitur in stercore invenitur"

In filth it will be found in dung it will be found


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OfflineStarstepper
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Re: Trump's Presidency and your investments. Let's talk. [Re: Morel Guy] * 1
    #23816813 - 11/09/16 04:31 PM (7 years, 2 months ago)

I like VXX

The bull market should continue if the correct levers continue to be pulled. We're at an infliction point with the Fed and DT hates Janet Yellen (head of the fed). Trump will probably hack her and the replacement will be very important. Bio and Healthcare should flourish. Stay away from Emerging Markets. If rates rise at a rapid pace over the next few months it could hurt R/E across the board. The reason I mentioned VXX is because it can barbell long positions in the S&P. Lots of investors do index investing (S&P ETFs) and if one wanted to stay in the market and not sell, that would be one way to have downside protection. Or for the person that doesn't invest with diversification and only invests in speculative investments, it's a great play if you have time to follow the volatility index. The fact his individual power is muted by the way our system is set up leaves me with some comfort and I'm fine with him if we improve the economy. I just worry he could de-rail this secular run we're in.


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Edited by Starstepper (11/09/16 04:44 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Trump's Presidency and your investments. Let's talk. [Re: Asante] * 1
    #23816861 - 11/09/16 04:51 PM (7 years, 2 months ago)

Good points Starstepper. Trump has a few significant platforms that are inextricably tied to investment themes. 

Namely:
  • Repeal of the Affordable Care Act - This is driving money into healthcare stocks in a big way.  The healthcare ETF:XLV finished the day up 3.5%, vastly outperforming the market.  The biotech ETF:IBB made that look like pocket change, finishing the day up 8.93%.

  • Deregulation of Dirty Energy/Manufacturing and Stepping Back on Global Warming - This is driving money into the metals/mining companies (metals & mining ETF:XME up 7.72% today, oil & gas exploration ETF:XOP up 4.34%).  Some of the stocks that were looking to be regulated out of existence, i.e. coal stocks, came back huge today, see CLF up 16.91%.  US Steel (X) up 17.18%.

  • Trade Protectionism/Isolationism - Global and emerging markets will be hurt if Trump follows through on his threats to roll back free trade agreements.  He has been a very vocal critic of Mexico in particular, and the Mexican peso as such got murdered on the election results, losing over 10% to the USD after having already been losing steam against the USD for the past many months.


Those are the most significant and obvious trades taking place.  You also see financials going up, and I think some of this may be as a result of anticipating impending rate hikes by the Fed.  Trump won't be able to replace Janet before her next policy meeting, and she's been threatening hikes for a very long time.  Since she knows Trump will probably replace her (and she just plain doesn't like the guy), I think it makes the odds of a rate hike in December more likely.  This is good for banks, but tenuous for the aggregate market, which has been bolstered by low rates forcing money into risk assets in order to achieve a return.

Frankly, the American economy has been weak for some time now.  Trump's trade policies, if enacted, could put significant pressure on the global economy, which feeds back into the US stock market.  Combine this with interest rate hikes and an 8 year old bull market that has stagnated for the past two years unable to break to new highs, and I'm guessing we'll be able to say next year that these past two years have been a long topping process, and that this bull cycle will be laid to rest in 2017.

You can try to catch the momentum in the meantime as folks reposition, but it's high risk right here.  We're at the top of the range, and there is a lot of headwind.


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OfflineEywa_devotee
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Re: Trump's Presidency and your investments. Let's talk. [Re: geokills]
    #23819686 - 11/10/16 12:36 PM (7 years, 2 months ago)

For the most part, a bull market across the board for everything if he keeps his head cool. A bit of rockiness early next year (buy a little gold for this if you can) followed by major economic boom if he does in fact deliver on his promises.

A government is really a big business, and Trump does have a LOT of experience running large businesses. He will get rid of a lot of useless and parasitic government offices and services, and replace these jobs with productive great society type projects. It will be similar to FDR's new deal in short, putting a lot of people back to work. It is very likely he will deliver on most of it unlike most politicians since he is independently wealthy. 

The only issue is that if it goes to his head and he does stuff that alienates and isolates the US from the rest of the world, things could get ugly- quick.


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"Love one another." "To Love is to know me." "Love is the Law, Love under Will." "In Compassion, all sorrows end." Regardless of the Master, the message is the same- Choose love and you shall live, Choose Fear and you shall die. Help bring peace to this Earth: Love one another, and serve others before yourself.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Trump's Presidency and your investments. Let's talk. [Re: Eywa_devotee]
    #23822232 - 11/11/16 07:59 AM (7 years, 2 months ago)

Correction corp CCA was up like 45% following the election. All hail Tough on Crime.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order


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