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Offlinerickpsfuckyou
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states likely to legalize ganja * 1
    #23721466 - 10/09/16 08:45 AM (7 years, 3 months ago)

http://reason.com/blog/2016/10/06/where-voters-are-most-likely-to-legalize

A month away from Election Day, it seems likely that California will join the four other states that have legalized marijuana for recreational use. Every poll taken so far this year indicates that most voters favor Proposition 64, a.k.a. the Control, Tax, and Regulate Adult Use of Marijuana Act, with support in three September surveys ranging from 52 percent to 60 percent. If the California initiative passes, it will more than triple the number of Americans who live in jurisdictions that see fit to tolerate cannabis consumption without a doctor's note. Legalization also looks more likely than not in Maine and Nevada, although the numbers there are closer. Massachusetts and Arizona are longer shots.

In addition to the five states considering legalization for general use, four states will decide whether patients should be allowed to use (or, in Montana's case, have easier access to) marijuana for symptom relief. If the Arkansas, Florida, and North Dakota initiatives pass, the number of medical marijuana states will rise from 25 to 28. Polling indicates that support is strongest in Florida, where a similar measure fell two points short of the required 60 percent supermajority two years ago.

Here is a rundown of the nine marijuana initiatives on state ballots next month, including relevant polling data where available:

Arizona (Proposition 205): Legalizes marijuana for recreational use, allows home cultivation and sharing, and authorizes production and distribution by state-licensed businesses, some of which eventually could allow on-site consumption. Full text. Support for the measure in three polls conducted this year—one in April and two in August—averages 44 percent. Opposition averages 47 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Arkansas (Issue 6 and Issue 7): Both initiatives allow production and distribution of marijuana for medical use. Issue 7 (full text) is more permissive than Issue 6 (full text), recognizing more treatable conditions (56 vs. 17) and allowing patients to grow their own medicine. A June survey by Public Opinion Strategies put support for Issue 6 and Issue 7 at 63 percent and 68 percent, respectively. A September survey by Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College, by contrast, found that Issue 6 had more support: 49 percent, compared to 36 percent for Issue 7. Opposition was 43 percent and 53 percent, respectively. The last medical marijuana initiative in Arkansas fell a point and a half short in 2012.

California (Proposition 64): Legalizes marijuana for recreational use, allows home cultivation and sharing, authorizes production and distribution by state-licensed businesses, which can make deliveries to consumers and allow on-site consumption if licensed for that purpose. Full text. Support for the measure in eight polls conducted this year, including three from last month, averages 60 percent. Opposition averages 35 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

Florida (Amendment 2): Allows the use of marijuana for the treatment of eight specified diseases as well as "other debilitating medical conditions of the same kind or class as or comparable to those enumerated." Authorizes production and distribution by state-licensed medical marijuana treatment centers. Full text. As a constitutional amendment, the initiative needs approval from 60 percent of voters to pass. Support for the measure in 10 polls conducted this year, including two last month, averages 69 percent. Opposition averages 24 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

Maine (Question 1): Legalizes marijuana for recreational use, allows home cultivation and sharing, and authorizes production and distribution by state-licensed businesses, which can allow on-site consumption with a special license. Full text. Support for the measure in two polls conducted this year—one on March and one in September—averages 53 percent. Opposition averages 40 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

Massachusetts (Question 4): Legalizes marijuana for recreational use, allows home cultivation and sharing, and authorizes production and distribution by state-licensed businesses, which can allow on-site consumption with local approval. Full text. Support for the measure in eight polls conducted this year, including two last month, averages 49 percent. Opposition averages 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

Montana (I-182): Allows production and distribution of marijuana by state-licensed providers for treatment of specified medical conditions and others subsequently added by the legislature. Full text. Although medical use has been legal in Montana since 2004, patients' access to marijuana is severely limited due to a 2011 legislative crackdown. I could not find any polling numbers for I-182, but the 2004 initiative passed with 62 percent of the vote.

Nevada (Question 2): Legalizes marijuana for recreational use, allows home cultivation and sharing, and authorizes production and distribution by state-licensed businesses, which cannot allow on-site consumption without new state legislation and local approval. Full text. Support for the measure in five polls conducted this year, including three last month, averages 51 percent. Opposition averages 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

North Dakota (Initiated Statutory Measure 5): Allows the use of marijuana for treatment of specified "debilitating medical conditions" and others added by the legislature. Authorizes production and distribution of medical marijuana by state-registered, nonprofit "compassion centers." Full text. In a 2014 poll of likely voters by the University of North Dakota College of Business and Public Administration, 47 percent said marijuana should be legal for medical use, 41 percent said it shouldn't, and 9 percent were neutral. I did not find any polls that asked specifically about the 2016 initiative.


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OfflineLuSiD enthusiast
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Re: states likely to legalize ganja [Re: rickpsfuckyou]
    #23722449 - 10/09/16 02:29 PM (7 years, 3 months ago)

Once again, illinois never ceases to disappoint me. I would bet money that illinois is the second to last state to do anything about it.

The last state is of course texas.


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OfflineBake954rr
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Re: states likely to legalize ganja [Re: LuSiD enthusiast]
    #23726479 - 10/10/16 08:18 PM (7 years, 3 months ago)

Indiana will be the last state. We still don't allow Sunday beer or wine sales.


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InvisibleLe_Canard
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Registered: 05/16/03
Posts: 94,392
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Re: states likely to legalize ganja [Re: Bake954rr]
    #23728034 - 10/11/16 11:26 AM (7 years, 3 months ago)

I think Tennessee will be one of the holdouts as well, but they'll cave soon.


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InvisibleOgla
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Registered: 02/16/04
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Re: states likely to legalize ganja [Re: LuSiD enthusiast]
    #23728141 - 10/11/16 12:28 PM (7 years, 3 months ago)

thou its true Texas may be one of the last, alot of police departments here dont give a crap about weed arrest and usually overlook it or just write a ticket. Not always thou.


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Invisibletdubz
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Registered: 02/26/12
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Re: states likely to legalize ganja [Re: Ogla]
    #23730077 - 10/12/16 01:10 AM (7 years, 3 months ago)

Maybe in Austin, Dallas, and Houston anywhere else I dunno. I think Cali will vote for recreational, Nevada, Maine, and maybe Arizona and Florida although I think those last two states will be a lot closer. Regardless, California voting for recreational weed is a big thing even though they have had med weed since the 90s. The other couple of states I doubt it, but you never know.


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OfflineCamwritesgonzo
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Registered: 06/09/12
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Re: states likely to legalize ganja [Re: tdubz]
    #23730150 - 10/12/16 02:39 AM (7 years, 3 months ago)

Minnesota once again leads the way in groundbreaking advancements into the legalization of cannabis...:facepalm:


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InvisibleCidneyIndole
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Registered: 05/16/05
Posts: 4,761
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Re: states likely to legalize ganja [Re: tdubz]
    #23743536 - 10/16/16 06:52 PM (7 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

tdubz said:
Maybe in Austin, Dallas, and Houston anywhere else I dunno. I think Cali will vote for recreational, Nevada, Maine, and maybe Arizona and Florida although I think those last two states will be a lot closer. Regardless, California voting for recreational weed is a big thing even though they have had med weed since the 90s. The other couple of states I doubt it, but you never know.





The OP even says:

Quote:

Legalization also looks more likely than not in Maine and Nevada, although the numbers there are closer. Massachusetts and Arizona are longer shots.






But AFAIK it seems like Massachusetts stands a chance. They got decriminalized in 2008. Medical in 2012. Very liberal state. Although the OP does mention this:

Quote:

Support for the measure in eight polls conducted this year, including two last month, averages 49 percent. Opposition averages 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided.





So according to polls, it just barely has the majority. But that's still 7% closer to "yes" than "no."  Of course, how that translates into actual votes is anyone's guess. Then there is that 8% "undecided" group. If the actual votes follow the poll numbers, that entire 8% "undecided" group would have to vote "no" in order to sway things the other way. If that group splits, "yes" still may win, even if the split is heavier on the "no" side.  (For example, if out of the 8% that are undecided, 6% were to vote "no" and only 2% "yes" that would still be 51% vs 48%, in favor of legalization.) But as I said, maybe the actual vote will go differently.

But honestly, I'm a little surprised the opposition is even that high. Like I said, MA is a pretty liberal state. There is a reason that was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage...


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