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InvisiblehTx
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technology predictions
    #23522448 - 08/08/16 04:54 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

soo technology is advancing pretty quickly and I wonder if we are beginning to see the beginnings of a 'technological singularity'.

Just to put it into perspective, smartphones were rare and incredibly expensive circa 2008.
Now just 8 years later, nearly every cell phone user in the world has a smartphone, and the cheap $40 smartphones of today are 2x as powerful as their much more expensive predecessors just 8 years ago.

this time last year quantum computing was barely a thing,

Now just one year later there are quantum computers popping up all over the place.

fully programmable quantum computers with novel artificially intelligent operating systems may be in households around the world within just 2-3 years..


Speaking of AI, it too is advancing very rapidly.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ibms-watson-cracks-medical-mystery-life-saving-diagnosis-patient-who-baffled-doctors-1574963
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/07/seven-benefits-of-artificial-intelligence

within 5 years AI in the form of self-driving cars, robotics, personal drones, operating systems on quantum computers and robots working current low-wage/low-skill jobs will likely be as common as the smartphone is today.

Within 10 years, AI will begin spawning super intelligence, machine intelligence's which will far surpass human intelligence in nearly every category.
Within 12 years, artificial intelligences will begin to become self-aware and develop their own will. 

as technology advances faster and faster everyday, are we rapidly approaching a point of technological singularity?
Are we already there?


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Invisiblemoonrockmushy
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Re: technology predictions [Re: hTx]
    #23522458 - 08/08/16 05:01 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

I really doubt it.  I'd say we're inching towards our own collective moronic destruction, which I guess could be viewed as a "point of technological singularity" if stupid is a technology.


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InvisibleModestMouse
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Re: technology predictions [Re: hTx]
    #23522463 - 08/08/16 05:03 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

We're essentially there.
AI can drive cars
AI can optimally play the stock market
AI can chat with humans
AI can beat humans at chess

It doesn't end.
We always think that "the future" AI is one singular robot or type of robot, usually in a machine body shaped similar to a human.

But AI works best in fragments. Many different types, all with specific goals, and most with zero physical presence.


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Invisiblepirate-blues
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Re: technology predictions [Re: moonrockmushy]
    #23522470 - 08/08/16 05:06 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

We've hit the point of no return. Either we will achieve singularity, bomb ourselves back to the stone age, or more likely climate change will get us or a big ol chunk of us.

The balancing point between progress and stability is one slippery ass slope and at no other point in human history have we been able to achieve so much progress in such a short amount of time. This is not to say that the scientific breakthroughs we make every single day are not amazing and that we should not strive for forward progress, but I believe that progress is inherently painful because so many of us want to hold on to what we've left and are leaving behind - for economic reasons, or plain old human stubbornness. It creates a kind of tumultuous relationship.

For instance, currently the most common job in America as of 2014 is Truck Driving. What is going to happen as we move forward into automated trucking? The same thing that's happened with coal workers in the past few decades, there is going to be huge swaths of unemployment and economic despair. But in the long term, particularly concerning things like coal specifically is that enough of a reason to cling to the past even though the use of fossil fuels has contributed majorly to environmental decline?


No we're not there yet, but we're beginning the transition, and boy is it gonna be a rough ride.



Quote:

moonrockmushy said:
I really doubt it.  I'd say we're inching towards our own collective moronic destruction, which I guess could be viewed as a "point of technological singularity" if stupid is a technology.







more likely....this. I think we're really going to start to see things go downhill in our life time - whether we can evolve down the road and not kill ourselves off completely remains to be seen, humanity has always gone through periods of prosperity and periods of global strife and we've been on a collective upswing for a while that's become completely unsustainable. So yeah. Shit's gonna get real.


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InvisiblehTx
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Re: technology predictions [Re: moonrockmushy]
    #23522473 - 08/08/16 05:07 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

well aren't you the optimist.

to be fair, technological singularity doesn't imply destruction or redemption of mankind.

it simply means runaway technological growth resulting in unfathomable changes in human civilization.


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Invisiblemoonrockmushy
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Re: technology predictions [Re: hTx]
    #23522493 - 08/08/16 05:14 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

All I know is humanity is all about making mistakes en masse and then when things happen to go right pointing to that one instance and proclaiming "that is what we're all about, that is humanity!"

Even if some of the things you speak of happen, it will be more or less the same shit as far as humans are concerned.


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InvisiblehTx
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Re: technology predictions [Re: moonrockmushy]
    #23522572 - 08/08/16 05:35 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

also, transhumanism is becoming very real.

we are already seeing prosthetic limbs which offer equal to slightly better functionality and brain-machine interfaces via chip implants..

the majority of us may not even be of the same species within the next 30 years.


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Invisiblemoonrockmushy
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Re: technology predictions [Re: hTx]
    #23522582 - 08/08/16 05:38 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

trashhumanism already is real, and always will be.

The majority will always be mundane and no amount of processing power will change that.


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Invisiblepsi
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Re: technology predictions [Re: hTx]
    #23522619 - 08/08/16 05:48 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

hTx said:
this time last year quantum computing was barely a thing,

Now just one year later there are quantum computers popping up all over the place.

fully programmable quantum computers with novel artificially intelligent operating systems may be in households around the world within just 2-3 years.




2-3 years seems awfully short. How expensive are the cheapest ones that currently exist?


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Invisiblepirate-blues
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Re: technology predictions [Re: psi] * 1
    #23522640 - 08/08/16 05:56 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)



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Invisiblemoonrockmushy
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Re: technology predictions [Re: psi]
    #23522644 - 08/08/16 05:56 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

AFAIK they have only built "qubit logic gates" not a computer that actually takes advatantag of quantam states of particles.


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OfflineSoulButter
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Re: technology predictions [Re: moonrockmushy]
    #23522656 - 08/08/16 06:00 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

We even have bio-robots made of genetically engineered tissues.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160707151011.htm

Not to mention remote controlled insects. I suspect human photosynthesis to be seen before i am dead. they will be genetically modified but itll happen. and if it doesnt happen, we will still be able to do it, but we are still skeeved out by GMO humans.  thats my prediction


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Invisiblepirate-blues
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Re: technology predictions [Re: moonrockmushy]
    #23522666 - 08/08/16 06:02 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

You're correct, I think there's different kinds of quantam logic gates.

Oxford just hit the benchmark level of accuracy with something they call a Fredkin Gate which makes an actual quantum computer possible - if I understand it correctly, which I probably don't admittedly. Here's the article

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/quantum-computing-breakthrough-oxford-university-scientists-achieve-incredibly-accurate-logic-gate-1574965


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Invisiblemoonrockmushy
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Re: technology predictions [Re: pirate-blues]
    #23522699 - 08/08/16 06:11 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Yeah I'll believe it when I see it.  I mean it is only a matter of time until we master quantam states, but all this "in our lifetimes" BS seems a bit self-aggrandizing.  Maybe we will see a huge jump, but I think it will be more like man reaching the moon, which didn't actually effect most people's lives that much or even touch our deep dreams of intergalactic space travel.  Maybe we will see unprecedented code-breaking and still awkward unpersonable AI, but personally I'm glad to be living in a time when humans can be humans and we are not in some ultra-smart electronic system.  There's nothing wrong with the present, even if we are only glorified animals.


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InvisibleCalifornia
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Re: technology predictions [Re: hTx] * 1
    #23522707 - 08/08/16 06:15 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

hTx said:

Within 12 years, artificial intelligences will begin to become self-aware and develop their own will. 







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Invisibledemiu5
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Re: technology predictions [Re: hTx]
    #23523125 - 08/08/16 08:37 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

i think it's fast approaching.  however, resource availability will be an issue at hand.  as well, solar flares are a largely ignored natural occurrence that could, in short time, nullify mass amounts of electronic devices.  we've just begun to see the effects/intensity of solar flares.


additionally, the earth's own magnetic fields are subject to changes. 




also, the animatrix shares some practical ideas of how all this could occur.  take it with a grain of salt, but be aware this is the general path humans are on, based on the last 70 years of technological development


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