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OfflineKryptos
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: laughingdog] * 2
    #23519676 - 08/07/16 05:55 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

laughingdog said:
https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/overfishing

More than 85 percent of the world's fisheries have been pushed to or beyond their biological limits and are in need of strict management plans to restore them. Several important commercial fish populations (such as Atlantic bluefin tuna) have declined to the point where their survival as a species is threatened. Target fishing of top predators, such as tuna and groupers, is changing marine communities, which lead to an abundance of smaller marine species, such as sardines and anchovies.




At least we still have anchovies for our pizzas.

Why so negative? I don't think any of these problems are "unsolvable". Except maybe reversing extinction. That is likely unsolvable outside some really cool breakthroughs in genetic engineering. However everything else:

Quote:

laughingdog said:
Meanwhile, Climate change, nuclear arsenals, new viruses, antibiotic resistance,  oil spills, acidification of oceans, control of media by a few corporations, an aging population on more prescription drugs that end up in the water supply and then fish (because sewage treatment works at the size scale of bacteria, & not at the nanoscale molecules that are the chemicals in drugs), - oil spills from freight trains and fracking (with more earthquakes in say Oklahoma and accompanying water pollution from fracking), depleting of the ancient underground water reserves by agriculture, in I think California, Texas, & the midwest, aging nuclear power plants, pesticide resistant insect pests, to name some other issues I can think of at the moment (although there many more), all add up, to something that is not solvable.




I believe is completely solvable, as soon as it becomes profitable to solve the problem. We are extremely adaptive, as evidenced by the fact that we were able to even create these problems to begin with. Of course, this argument still stands on the idea of the almighty dollar, but that has been constant throughout history. Just replace "dollar" with "denarii" or "seashells" or "salt" or "freshly hunted deer leg" or "bushel of grain" or whatever currency you want. Even hunters traded their meat for the berries that gatherers found. So far, we've been marching towards a solution on many of these problems. The ozone hole over the south pole is beginning to close up due to regulations of several pollutants. Less people are in poverty than ever before across the world, and there are less combat deaths in the last decade than in any other period of recorded history. One of the research groups at my university recently created a completely green bioresin that can filter out TOCs (total organic carbon) like the pharmaceuticals/pesticides/whatever that is ending up in the water supply. New environmental regulations are slowing the creation of pollution, and we are relatively much less polluting per capita than we were 20 years ago. Places are banning fracking. Things like twitter make everyone a potential journalist/photographer, allowing us to dispute the "official" record (in at least some cases, I'm not assuming twitter is a bastion of free and unbiased media). New antibiotics are being developed and researched constantly, as well as some novel methods for killing bacteria without antibiotics (PDT-type stuff, though it's mostly focused on cancer now, it has the potential to act as an "antibiotic" that life as we know it is unable to develop resistance to).

The only real "problem" that is consistently getting worse is an aging population. However, I don't think that's a problem. That simply means that more people are living longer, and less people are popping out babies every two years. This is a good thing, as it helps fix many of the other issues mentioned thus far. Sure, we need to start working on restructuring society to be more about old people, but with any luck that will cause the type of financial pressure that will cripple the defense industry. Also there will be less young people with an abundance of energy and an absence of brain cells willing to go fight someone over relatively trivial bullshit. (Yeah, I guess I'm calling terrorist attacks trivial bullshit here, because...they are, compared to deaths by car, deaths by heart attack, deaths by smoking, deaths by obesity...Oh, and deaths by going to war. We've lost more soldiers than civilians in 9/11, and that isn't counting the half-mil or so Iraqi civilians. Maybe we should take those "christian values" that everyone in the US seems to think the country is based on and just turn the other cheek once in a while).

To address nuclear power specifically in its own point, yeah, we might need a meltdown to wake up and smell the smoke. Acceptable collateral damage, to use the military term. The idea of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" is being used a little too freely in some cases. However, I would also add that nuclear power is *THE* way to fix a lot of our environmental issues, and modern Gen IV reactors (which are for some idiot reason banned in the US) don't even produce long-term radioactive waste, with full decay on the order of years to decades, as opposed to centuries. In some cases, nuclear waste is actually an economic value. For example, Pd-107 (a byproduct of U-235 light water reactors, currently can be optimized to be 1.25% of reactor waste without using Gen IV technology) has a half life of 6.5 million years, and releases 7.207*10^-5 Ci of radiation, two orders of magnitude below the OSHA standardized limit of 1*10^-3 Ci over a 40 hour week. We could always use more palladium, as it is an excellent catalyst and can save energy (and reduce pollution) through development of new catalytic methods. Nuclear development as a whole has been quietly pushed forward quite a bit by other governments and even private entities (remember that kid that built a reactor in his shed and the EPA covered his house in cement? Yeah, he's a legit genius who recently got a $100K fellowship to build his theoretical design which cannot melt down). Now we just need people to stop associating the word "nuclear" with hiding under their desks during drills in the 50s, and start associating it with clean energy that is effectively limitless for the next 100,000 years or so. After that natural radioactive deposits will have degraded too much for us to use using current technology.

I really hate these doom-and-gloom posts, because they are part of the problem. It's much easier to declare a problem "unsolvable" and go to the bar, only to whine at everyone that's willing to listen about how bad the world is. Option B would be to actually sit down and put in the effort of being part of the solution. Quit whining, start working.


Edited by Kryptos (08/07/16 05:58 PM)


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Invisiblelaughingdog
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: demiu5]
    #23519827 - 08/07/16 06:30 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

interesting apparently some of the nitrogen comes from fish

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140218-salmon-fertilising-the-forests

short film and article

"How salmon help keep a huge rainforest thriving
The Great Bear Rainforest is the largest temperate rainforest in the world. This huge and pristine wilderness depends on an unlikely source for its long-term survival – the salmon which spawn in its rivers and creeks.

18 February 2014
The Great Bear Rainforest is vital to the health of the planet. This enormous habitat covers 32,000 sq km (12,000 sq mi) on the Pacific coast of Canada, helping purify both air and water, and is an unspoiled home to grizzly bears, wolves and cougars.
The forest is the scene of one of nature’s most impressive migrations; the perilous journey of the Pacific salmon from the sea through the forest rivers to spawn in its creeks. The salmon run draws carnivores such as bears and wolves to the river bank, where they gorge on the migrating fish.
In this film, ecological economist Pavan Sukhdev, The Nature Conservancy’s lead scientist Dr M Sanjayan and camerawoman Sophie Darlington talk about the salmon’s unsung role in fertilising the forest. The bears who feast on the spawning salmon don’t eat on the river – they drag the carcasses far into the forest. The remains of the salmon contain vast quantities of nitrogen that plants need to grow. Eighty percent of the nitrogen in the forest’s trees comes from the salmon. In other words, these ocean dwellers are crucial for the forest’s long-term survival."


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Invisiblelaughingdog
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: Kryptos]
    #23519930 - 08/07/16 06:58 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:

At least we still have anchovies for our pizzas.

I really hate these doom-and-gloom posts, because they are part of the problem. It's much easier to declare a problem "unsolvable" and go to the bar, only to whine at everyone that's willing to listen about how bad the world is. Option B would be to actually sit down and put in the effort of being part of the solution. Quit whining, start working.




You are welcome to be optimistic, ( & alternately to be emotional & attempt humor & if you really want to: "put your money (ie efforts) where your mouth is"), as far as I'm concerned. I do not see myself as whining, because I never said things either should, could, or would be different - I merely pointed out that in my opinion, in answer to the OP, that the problems are neither purely monetary or political and too complex and interrelated for solveability. I do not live in a big city, or aspire to be a CEO so the already happening decline of quality of life in cities compared to a semi rural life do not effect me personally. That millions more will be thus affected shortly seems undebateable.

It seems to me that if you read some world history, and read some anthropology such as Marvin Harris, and Jarred Diamond, and really consider the data on the mega cities I think, the evidence is against an optimistic view. I'm sure the Mayans and Romans and many others thought they would be around forever and were oblivious of their environmentally damaging practices. But the anthropological and archaeological record show the same patterns repeated by humans for thousands of years, world wide, with resultant fall of empires and civilizations. This time around all the factors have been both multiplied and magnified.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: laughingdog] * 1
    #23520598 - 08/07/16 10:41 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

I see where you're going, I think. I wouldn't necessarily call my post "optimistic", because while I do think that eventually these problems will be solved and humans will keep on living, the death of a large chunk of the human population due to the issues you described seems like it will be a prerequisite for us to start working on a solution. At the very least, enough people have to die that wrongful death settlements need to start eating into corporate profits above an acceptable level.

As for the cities, I think that is a problem of population vs. technological capacity. Before the first sewer systems were built in Iran 3000 years ago, no more than ~1000 people could live in a "city" without river access, by virtue of not having somewhere to put poop. Once we figured that out, we started running into issues of supplying adequate food, then fire protection, then building materials, then crime, etc. Many civilizations have fallen based on crumbling infrastructure and too much population to properly handle.

I do not know if the "megacities" you speak of have necessarily reached capacity based on current technology, but I would imagine that Tokyo or Shanghai or New York are getting there. Now, we just need to figure out better ways to keep people watered, fed, sheltered, clean, and happy. I'm specifically looking at traffic as the next big challenge, and I'm fairly certain that self driving cars will be a significant improvement in this regard. Ideally, we would become less obsessed with owning things and start participating in a sharing economy when it comes to our new and shiny self-driving cars. Sort of like public transportation, except hopefully with less...fluids. Some places, like the city I currently live in, could do with just getting their public transportation system into working order. Sadly, I'm not joking when I say I routinely see buses show up so late that another bus on the same route actually beats them there. I don't mean same as in identical, but the kind where you have, say, a route that splits at one point towards the end, and you have something like a 1 that runs every 20 minutes, with 1A running every 20 minutes but with a ten minute shift. Imagine having a 1 show up, then no 1A, then another 1, then two 1As within a 5 minute period.

To get a little more on-topic with the OP, I think some major societal changes will have to be made for the middle class as we know it to survive. Specifically, we need to figure out how to deal with increased productivity. Until the industrial revolution, life was pretty...plain. The amount of work needed to make something useful usually made the resulting object prohibitively expensive to the common peasant. As productivity increased, driving prices down, we saw the emergence of a middle class. Now, productivity has continued to increase at a rapid pace, while wages have stagnated and real purchasing power has dropped like a rock. This has led to the concentration of wealth in the upper echelons of society, as mentioned in the OP. One man can now rule a financial empire that supplies vast swaths of the population with goods, while simultaneously employing a fraction of the number of people supplied. For example, Walmart in the US currently employs 0.5% of the population, and sells 40% of the goods. Even if the profits were divided evenly across the board, 39.5% of the population could theoretically be left with no income (minus a few percent for non-walmart-employee walmart suppliers).

I see a few solutions. The first, which is by far my favorite, is the idea of a Universal Living Wage, where you just show up to the local DHS office on the first of the month and get a poverty line adjusted paycheck, just for being you. This isn't necessarily enough to thrive on, but it is enough for food, rent, and clothes. I imagine this will reduce the available work force to some degree, while keeping the consumer purchasing power (and therefore economic liquidity) fairly stable. Less workers means higher wages, so there will be a certain balance point at which people will start rejoining the workforce. Of course, any wages you earn would get taxed, but you would always get your monthly ULW check, even if you were making millions. This would also encourage innovation, such as replacing unskilled manual labor or low level customer service with machines (see: Europe, where cost of labor is much higher). Even if all of these generally low paying jobs disappear completely, the people that now work there for minimum wage would be able to survive on their ULW. I imagine that most people that are content not working or working reduced hours would spend their time on creative pursuits that would be overall beneficial to humanity as a whole. I'm thinking science or art/entertainment. They likely wouldn't be out committing crimes against other people, at least, because their stable financial situation would not force them to seek desperate measures to survive. In this case, the middle class would end up being people that collect their ULW and work an average job, with a relatively similar real income and expenditures that until very recently were associated with the middle class (house, two cars, 5 movies a year, yearly vacation, etc.) Sadly, now, some of these are upper class luxuries (vacations).

The other solution that I see, would be more of a Luddite ideal: Quit innovating. Go back the the factories of the 1960s, where they were efficient enough to supply a middle class with goods, but inefficient enough to raise cost of labor. I'm not a fan of this, because I don't necessarily think that would work. I also think progress is a good thing. For many of the reasons I mentioned in my last block'o'text, I have absolutely no rose-tinted nostalgia glasses on.

The third option is of course to strengthen current wealth redistribution methods. We just need more money to get removed from wealthy pockets and placed into poor pockets. The idea here is solely keeping the economy liquid, as 1 rich person will buy 1 car, but the same exact amount of wealth split evenly among 10 poor people will cause them to buy 10 cars. Selling 10 cars is much better for the economy than selling 1 car. There was a TED talk about this, basically saying that rich CEOs are not job creators, consumers are. Link:


I think the most likely solution is the third option, because we humans have this weird psychological tendency to not want to give someone else freebies, even if not handing out a feebie ends up hurting ourselves. For example: giving a homeless person a free place to live would cost taxpayers an average of 12k/yr per person, while leaving them on the streets ends up costing an average of 25-30k/yr/person (mostly as uninsured medical treatment and jail time for the homeless people that commit minor crimes for a meal and a bed). Most people would rather eat the triple cost rather than giving someone as "undeserving" as a homeless person free rent. If we disguise it as "welfare", then we can at least feel good about ourselves because it turns the recipient into a subhuman that is to be pitied, as opposed to an equal that is "lazy" (as most homeless are viewed). Maybe we will eventually become altruistic enough where the universal wage option would get support, but I doubt it, even though it would likely work better than the welfare system does now or ever would.


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OfflineTheSheph
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: Kryptos]
    #23520725 - 08/07/16 11:28 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

I enjoyed reading this thread. I think that the credit based economy is an important idea to take into consideration when describing the decline of the middle class.


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Offlinedeff
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: Kryptos]
    #23521384 - 08/08/16 08:47 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

great post Kryptos :smile: I too think the universal living income idea is a good one


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: Kryptos]
    #23521441 - 08/08/16 09:17 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Yes Kryptos, I have often wondered if the universal Basic income could work, and I think that if we really wanted it to it could.  Many citizens have to change their minds about a lot of different subjects in order for something like that to be viable, however.  But something like this will have to happen or huge swaths of people will simply rot before our eyes.  Technology is leading to the superfluousness of humans in many professional roles.  Twenty years from now, it is possible that humans will not be working anymore at all.  If you were an employer, would you take an old-fashioned human, or a machine that works around-the-clock, for no wage, that makes zero mistakes?  It's a no-brainer.

So the question we have to ask ourselves is: What are we going to do with everybody?  We're going to have to organize society around different lines, essentially tipping off a cultural revolution.  That or suffer like never before. 

I am reminded of the quote by Douglas Rushkoff: 

"The question we have to begin to ask ourselves is not how do we employ all the people who are rendered obsolete by technology, but how can we organize a society around something other than employment? Might the spirit of enterprise we currently associate with "career" be shifted to something entirely more collaborative, purposeful, and even meaningful?"


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: DividedQuantum] * 1
    #23521496 - 08/08/16 09:40 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

The issue I see with automation of the workforce is direct cost-benefit analysis. Right now, automating the workforce is not even remotely viable in the US as wages are low and demand for jobs is extremely high, especially in the low qualifications jobs that would be easiest to replace with a robot. This is not true for other parts of the world, most notably some of the smaller and wealthier countries in Europe.

Overall, I think some lessons can be taken from how places like France do things: their legal work week is 35 hours, after being dropped from 39 hours in 2000. This has the effect of creating more jobs to fill the openings left by shorter shifts, while giving people more free time to pursue other interests. Of course, wages would need to be shifted upwards to account for less hours worked, and I don't know how they addressed that issue. I think Basic Income (I still like Universal Living Wage more...it makes it seem more like something that everyone is entitled to, and has some of the connotations of "welfare" as I argued above due to the word "living") would be a viable solution to keep people fed and happy. Of course, if this was implemented incrementally concurrent with incremental reductions in the legal work week, we could transition to the ideal slowly without ruffling any petticoats.

I agree with that quote wholeheartedly. I hate to use Star Trek (old, not the stuff that came out after DS9) as an example, as it is an imperialist utopia with many flaws (mostly reflecting the racism of the time), but I do like the idea that society is based on self-improvement and development, as opposed to career. Though, career is also a form of self development. I think getting people to focus on creative endeavors would be extremely beneficial, as it would both keep people busy as artists/entertainers, and as consumers of the new deluge of entertainment. Of course, science would also be a valuable pursuit, but I don't think that most people would willingly start doing academic research in their spare time.

Maybe we need to make society value people not by the digits in their bank accounts, but by the number of consumers that routinely make use of your creations? ("subscribers" to use the Youtube term?)

EDIT: A lot of my reasoning on this idea is based on three *EXCELLENT* blog posts (three part series) that I will link below. I strongly suggest you give it a read.

http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2012/11/hipsters_on_food_stamps.html
http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2012/11/hipsters_on_food_stamps_part_2.html
http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2012/12/product_review_panasonic_pt_ax.html


Edited by Kryptos (08/08/16 09:48 AM)


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: Kryptos]
    #23521503 - 08/08/16 09:45 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Very good points. :thumbup:


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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #23522629 - 08/08/16 05:51 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

When you consider that something like 45 million poorer americans are "ON" food stamps, and the less than 1% who are truly rich just keep getting "richer", then the middle class has nowhere to go but down, crushed, balls busted.  The whole "concept" of negative interest rates doesn't make me sorry for banks not making their beloved spread, it makes me sad for savers.  When you have to pay the bank to "hold" your funds, that alone kills any working man's incentive IMO.



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Invisiblelaughingdog
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #23524016 - 08/09/16 05:20 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

predictions are based on assuming stability or control exist
I think so many wild cards are in play and interacting
that trying to answer the big questions considered here is
much less valid than predicting weather more than a week out

consider  just this one item from today's news

"Strider is capable of creating custom malware tools and has operated below the radar for at least five years," Symantec's Security Response team wrote yesterday in a blog post. "Based on the espionage capabilities of its malware and the nature of its known targets, it is possible that the group is a nation-state level attacker."

--------
"A sophisticated cyber espionage group that has managed to keep a low profile has been found to target organizations in Russia, China and a couple of European countries, Symantec reported on Sunday.
The threat actor, dubbed Strider by Symantec, and also known as ProjectSauron, is believed to have been active since at least 2011. Symantec analyzed one of the group’s tools, named Remsec, after a customer submitted a sample detected by its security product due to suspicious behavior.
According to researchers, Remsec is a piece of malware primarily designed for spying. The threat can open a backdoor on the infected computer, log keystrokes, steal files from the infected machine, and allow the attackers to move laterally on the network." ...etc etc...

-----------

Meanwhile:
There is some good video on youtube about chernobyl, and the wildlife there, now that the radiation keeps most humans out. The wolves, eagles, & other wildlife are returning & all doing quite well without us. The farms and buildings are being swallowed by a more natural landscape. If we all died suddenly, I don't think we would be missed, by the world, or universe, except briefly perhaps by a few helpless pets.


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Invisibledemiu5
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: laughingdog]
    #23524608 - 08/09/16 11:04 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

laughingdog said:
Meanwhile:
There is some good video on youtube about chernobyl, and the wildlife there, now that the radiation keeps most humans out. The wolves, eagles, & other wildlife are returning & all doing quite well without us. The farms and buildings are being swallowed by a more natural landscape. If we all died suddenly, I don't think we would be missed, by the world, or universe, except briefly perhaps by a few helpless pets.






while, in large part, i agree with the bolded sentiment, the reality is there are so many pieces of infrastructure (i.e. nuclear facilities, mining facilities, oil refineries, dams etc...) that require human intervention to keep them from "melting down", stop functioning, or other applicable phrases, that if humans were all of a sudden to disappear with the infrastructure still intact would cause significant ecological damage.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: laughingdog]
    #23524631 - 08/09/16 11:19 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

laughingdog said:
predictions are based on assuming stability or control exist
I think so many wild cards are in play and interacting
that trying to answer the big questions considered here is
much less valid than predicting weather more than a week out

consider  just this one item from today's news

"Strider is capable of creating custom malware tools and has operated below the radar for at least five years," Symantec's Security Response team wrote yesterday in a blog post. "Based on the espionage capabilities of its malware and the nature of its known targets, it is possible that the group is a nation-state level attacker."

--------
"A sophisticated cyber espionage group that has managed to keep a low profile has been found to target organizations in Russia, China and a couple of European countries, Symantec reported on Sunday.
The threat actor, dubbed Strider by Symantec, and also known as ProjectSauron, is believed to have been active since at least 2011. Symantec analyzed one of the group’s tools, named Remsec, after a customer submitted a sample detected by its security product due to suspicious behavior.
According to researchers, Remsec is a piece of malware primarily designed for spying. The threat can open a backdoor on the infected computer, log keystrokes, steal files from the infected machine, and allow the attackers to move laterally on the network." ...etc etc...

-----------

Meanwhile:
There is some good video on youtube about chernobyl, and the wildlife there, now that the radiation keeps most humans out. The wolves, eagles, & other wildlife are returning & all doing quite well without us. The farms and buildings are being swallowed by a more natural landscape. If we all died suddenly, I don't think we would be missed, by the world, or universe, except briefly perhaps by a few helpless pets.





This thread being yet one more example of doomed people pretending "it ain't so" yet in the 6th great mass extinction event.  Even the bugs are dying as the sheep play on their phones.  The other day I literally had to almost hit someone wandering towards me with a wall on the left as they walked towards me in a zombie daze.  Get off your phones every time is yet another dose of wifi.  Want to talk about a decline of everybody, do a little homework into what that wifi does to your brain.  Oh yea, you love that internet and immediate connectivity to show them where you are and what you are searching for today, right?

I weep for the future, most of you sheep deserve to be fleeced but it's still a sad but true scenario.



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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #23524636 - 08/09/16 11:21 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)



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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #23524661 - 08/09/16 11:28 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

The fascist defacement of the Georgia Guidestones will not go unpunished. Of this I assure my brethren.


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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: yeah] * 1
    #23524673 - 08/09/16 11:33 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

yeah said:
The fascist defacement of the Georgia Guidestones will not go unpunished. Of this I assure my brethren.




OK preacher man or woman as the case may be.  The Georgia Guidestones maybe deserved to be punished.  I get nervous when you say brethren.  In fact TBH many of your posts are a bit nervy.

yeah.  punish this.


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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #23524681 - 08/09/16 11:36 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Just desire that I have my way. Whatever it is, I promise it's gooooooooood...


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Re: the Decline of the American middle-class [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #23525918 - 08/09/16 08:06 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Your defeatist attitude and justification of it took more time than I chose to spend reading it. I think you had it right the first time before you buried your heart watching that movie.  Oh well when they come to take you to the camp you've already fucking given up, maybe they make you a fucking hall monitor and you can be the man you need to be.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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