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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Re: TPP [Re: qman]
    #23527692 - 08/10/16 09:21 AM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Very good points. :thumbup:


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Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: TPP [Re: qman]
    #23528732 - 08/10/16 04:29 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
Fal, if employment is really back to normal, yet my ask you a few questions.

1. If we have "full employment" like you claim, why is GDP growth barely at 1%?  That doesn't even make sense, historically the GDP growth rate should be 3% or higher with strong employment rates, we are NOT seeing it.



Easy question.  It's because population growth has slowed.  The following graph shows how the GDP growth rate per capita has actually remained relatively constant, while the population growth rate is going way down:



Quote:

qman said:
2. If we are back to "normal employment" levels, why have interest rates stayed at 0% for the past 8 years?  It doesn't make sense, "normal employment" levels should have rates at least in the 3-6% range.  Today the Fed can't even hike rates .25 basis points, why is that?



That's another easy question, it's because interest rates aren't tied to unemployment. They are set to keep inflation stable.  If inflation starts to rise, interest rates will go up accordingly to keep inflation in check.

Quote:

qman said:
3. "Full employment" should have higher wage pressure, this isn't happening today, wages are stagnant. Every other time period when full employment was occurring, wages went higher!  Why was my father getting 8-12% ANNUAL wage hikes at the corporation he was working at in the 1970's?  It wasn't because they were just nicer. :lol:



Historical evidence shows that minimum wages and strong labor unions are more closely tied to wages than unemployment.  I keep asking for an example showing how unemployment is tied to wages, but it's never provided, and I've providing evidence showing the correlation between union membership and wage equality, but it's always ignored.  Here it is again:



--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Offlineqman
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Re: TPP [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #23528902 - 08/10/16 05:25 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Population growth is only one POTENTIAL factor in slower economic growth, with that being said one could find many reasons today of how a growing population could cause negative economic growth. How's the surging population growth been working for Africa lately?  Last I saw they were risking their lives in boats fleeing to the EU.

"interest rates aren't tied to employment"

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html

"The Phillips curve... remains the key to relating unemployment to inflation in mainstream macroeconomic analysis"

"showing how unemployment is tied to wages" 

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html

"Phillips conjectured that the lower employment rate, that the tighter the labor market and, therefore, the faster firms must raise wages to attract scare labor"


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: TPP [Re: qman]
    #23529221 - 08/10/16 06:54 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

They arent risking their lives.

Theyre economic opportunists. Scum who need to stay on their own continent.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: TPP [Re: qman]
    #23529275 - 08/10/16 07:11 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
Population growth is only one POTENTIAL factor in slower economic growth, with that being said one could find many reasons today of how a growing population could cause negative economic growth. How's the surging population growth been working for Africa lately?  Last I saw they were risking their lives in boats fleeing to the EU.



Yes, there a lot of reasons why the GDP growth rate per capita might slow down.  But all other things being equal, we would expect the GDP per capita growth rate to remain constant, which it is (as the graph above clearly shows).  It is unreasonable to suggest that because it isn't suddenly increasing (I don't know why you think it should) that we have too many illegals.

Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
interest rates aren't tied to unemployment. They are set to keep inflation stable.  If inflation starts to rise, interest rates will go up accordingly to keep inflation in check.




http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html

"The Phillips curve... remains the key to relating unemployment to inflation in mainstream macroeconomic analysis"



Inflation is not the same as interest.

Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
I keep asking for an example showing how unemployment is tied to wages, but it's never provided



http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html

"Phillips conjectured that the lower employment rate, that the tighter the labor market and, therefore, the faster firms must raise wages to attract scare labor"



Do you know what "conjecture" means?

I'm asking for real world evidence.  Here is the REAL relationship between unemployment and wages:



Are they correlated, or inversely correlated?  Clearly, there is no evident correlation between unemployment and wages.  Yes, I know that violates Econ 101 principles.  But this is the real world, not conjecture.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Offlineqman
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Re: TPP [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #23529331 - 08/10/16 07:24 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
They arent risking their lives.

Theyre economic opportunists. Scum who need to stay on their own continent.




"They aren't risking their lives"

The journey is risking their lives in many instances, how many have died when their boats sunk? Thousands.

"They're economic opportunists"

In most instances this has proven to be true.

"Scum who need to stay on their own continent"

No, just people that need to use LEGAL means to enter countries they aren't citizens of in the first place, or better yet, fix their own homelands.


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Offlineqman
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Re: TPP [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #23529361 - 08/10/16 07:33 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

qman said:
Population growth is only one POTENTIAL factor in slower economic growth, with that being said one could find many reasons today of how a growing population could cause negative economic growth. How's the surging population growth been working for Africa lately?  Last I saw they were risking their lives in boats fleeing to the EU.



Yes, there a lot of reasons why the GDP growth rate per capita might slow down.  But all other things being equal, we would expect the GDP per capita growth rate to remain constant, which it is (as the graph above clearly shows).  It is unreasonable to suggest that because it isn't suddenly increasing (I don't know why you think it should) that we have too many illegals.

Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
interest rates aren't tied to unemployment. They are set to keep inflation stable.  If inflation starts to rise, interest rates will go up accordingly to keep inflation in check.




http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html

"The Phillips curve... remains the key to relating unemployment to inflation in mainstream macroeconomic analysis"



Inflation is not the same as interest.

Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
I keep asking for an example showing how unemployment is tied to wages, but it's never provided



http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html

"Phillips conjectured that the lower employment rate, that the tighter the labor market and, therefore, the faster firms must raise wages to attract scare labor"



Do you know what "conjecture" means?

I'm asking for real world evidence.  Here is the REAL relationship between unemployment and wages:



Are they correlated, or inversely correlated?  Clearly, there is no evident correlation between unemployment and wages.  Yes, I know that violates Econ 101 principles.  But this is the real world, not conjecture.




You chart shows a little bit of both, the end of the chart shows what I have been saying from the very beginning, lower unemployment should show wage growth.

The problem with your chart is that it doesn't break down the wages into categories, if the top 20% of wage earners are the only ones seeing wage growth, it can heavily influence that growth rate even if the bottom 80% are still experiencing stagnant wages.


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Offlinehostileuniverse
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Re: TPP [Re: qman]
    #23529577 - 08/10/16 08:40 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

The only graphs that matter, the ones Fal so conveniently leaves out, are these



fal does not like facts, this is why he chooses to ignore them


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: TPP [Re: qman]
    #23529677 - 08/10/16 09:03 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
The problem with your chart is that it doesn't break down the wages into categories, if the top 20% of wage earners are the only ones seeing wage growth, it can heavily influence that growth rate even if the bottom 80% are still experiencing stagnant wages.



Wrong, that's why I chose "median" wage data and not "average"; so the top 20% don't skew anything.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Offlineqman
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Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: TPP [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #23529705 - 08/10/16 09:14 PM (7 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

qman said:
The problem with your chart is that it doesn't break down the wages into categories, if the top 20% of wage earners are the only ones seeing wage growth, it can heavily influence that growth rate even if the bottom 80% are still experiencing stagnant wages.



Wrong, that's why I chose "median" wage data and not "average"; so the top 20% don't skew anything.




Yep, my bad.


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