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OfflineNiamhNyx
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Collapse of Industrial Civilization
    #2337516 - 02/15/04 03:38 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

This is from http://www.inthewake.netfirms.com/


The collapse of industrial civilization is inevitable.
Currently we are in a situation where industrial civilization requires more and more energy each year to persist. The industrialized population is growing. Capitalism is doing its best to ensure that every person in the population consumes more each year. The infrastructure of civilization is becoming larger and more complex, and requires ever-increasing amounts of energy just to maintain it. Also, human-caused ecological catastrophies require increasingly large amounts of energy to cope with. The water table, for example, in China's breadbasket is dropping by 3 to 10 feet a year, which means that massive energy expenditures (and the depletion of water elsewhere) will be required just to keep their yields the same. (Which is not currently happening. For the past four years, civilization has consumed more grain than it produced, last year by a margin of almost twice the annual grain ouput of Canada.) Global warming and climate change will also require energy compensation to keep industrial civilization from flying apart. An Intergovernmental Panel has found that by 2065, monetary costs of weather damage caused by climate change will exceed the entire planet's gross domestic product.

But at the same time, evidence shows it as likely that we have already used more than half of our planet's available fossil fuel reserves. Which means that, according to Hubbert's curve, we will have less and less energy available to us each year until we run out completely.

Often when I talk about this to people for the first time, they say, "Well, have you heard about this new hybrid car?" or "Yes, I think the government had better start putting more energy into renewable technologies." I think that in the case of renewables, the solution would be worse than the problem. For instance, to run the all cars in England on corn-ethanol would require that the entire land area of England be cultivated with corn. Which of course, is impossible, since you would have to get rid of the cities and highways to have enough space, and then where would the cars drive? And even then, you still don't have energy to light and heat houses that the car drivers live in, or the offices that they work at. You don't have energy to run the factories that manufacture their cars, or the replacement parts to repair them. You don't have energy for the police stations, or least of all the military, which are the "hidden fist of the hidden hand" which help to keep this whole system going.

Clearly this situation will not last. Eventually the upward energy consumption trend and the downward availability trend will collide catastrophically. The result will be the collapse of industrial civilization, and there is nothing that anyone can do to stop it.

But there are things that people can do about it, during and after it. Which is what this book is for.

Liberty, democracy and ecological sanity are not compatible with industrial civilization.

Industrial civilization will destroy more human and living communities the longer it lasts. Hence, the longer it exists, the worse are our chances for survival.

Therefore, it is desirable that industrial civilization should end as soon as possible.


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Anonymous

Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: NiamhNyx]
    #2337584 - 02/15/04 03:58 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

my prediction for the future is progress and prosperity, but i've still got plenty of ammo and nonperishables of course.  :wink:


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OfflineNiamhNyx
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: ]
    #2337595 - 02/15/04 04:03 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

That prediction is groundless if you look at the actual numbers of what we've got and how much we use. Remember, oil probably peaked in 2000. After that it gets progressively more expensive. Considering every single thing we do in this civilization depends upon oil it's pretty clear we're in for a crash.


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Anonymous

Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: NiamhNyx]
    #2337655 - 02/15/04 04:17 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

there will not come a day when all of the sudden, the lights go out, the heat dies, you drive to the gas station and they have a sign saying, "sorry, the earth ran out of oil last night". it will be a gradual process. as oil becomes more scarce, it will become more expensive. as it becomes more expensive, we're gonna start using less of it and it will be more economically feasable to develop alternative energy sources. the technology is out there, but there's no reason to develop it so long as we've got cheap crude sitting under our noses. it's gonna be fine.


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: ]
    #2337703 - 02/15/04 04:29 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

my prediction for the future is progress and prosperity

Who for mush? What kind of future do you see for your kids in this neocon paradise? When technological jobs in the US increasingly going the same way as factory jobs overseas to places like India? What line of work do you think your kids will be able to earn a living in that an Indian can't do for a fraction of the wage?


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Anonymous

Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: Xlea321]
    #2337715 - 02/15/04 04:31 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Who for mush?

for everyone.

excuse me, but are we talking about tariffs now?


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: ]
    #2337729 - 02/15/04 04:35 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

No, you've heard about offshoring in the computer industry? Jobs being done by highly educated americans are now being shipped out to India.


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Anonymous

Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: Xlea321]
    #2337751 - 02/15/04 04:42 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

yeah, i've heard of that. how does it have anything to do with peak oil and the collapse of industrial society?

if you wanna talk about outsourcing, tariffs, etc, bump carbonhoots' recent thread on the issue.


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: ]
    #2337776 - 02/15/04 04:48 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

It was referring to your prediction of progress and prosperity.


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Anonymous

Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: Xlea321]
    #2337811 - 02/15/04 04:56 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

this thread is about dwindling natural resources and how left "unchecked", our current rate of consumption will soon cause the downfall of society as we know it. rather than debate the ins and outs of free trade here, let's stay on topic. i'm sure anyone could come up with a lot of reasons to refute my prediction of progress and prosperity, but unless it's got something to do with the topic of this thread, it would be more appropriate to create a new thread or bump a relevant one.


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OfflineTheOneYouKnow
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: NiamhNyx]
    #2338234 - 02/15/04 06:54 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

NiamhNyx said:
This is from http://www.inthewake.netfirms.com/
The collapse of industrial civilization is inevitable.




Everything that is existential has a beginning and an end. I'm not sure if the industrial civilization will cease to be in the foreseeable future, or if it will morph into a civilization that has solved some of the problems that are caused by industry, such as pollution. In about five billion years, our sun will run out of hydrogen to fuse and will start fusing helium, and the earth will dry up and all life on earth will die. A reassuring thought :smile:
Quote:


Industrial civilization will destroy more human and living communities the longer it lasts. Hence, the longer it exists, the worse are our chances for survival.




Sorry to not respond to some of the excellent points that were in this article, but I think that this statement sums it up.  The absolute worst that humans could do to this planet, short of destroying it with nuclear weapons, would make it inhabitable for human life.  IF this happened, in a few million years, most traces of human existance would disappear, nature would take back everything that we've taken from her, and the earth would be a better place.  Most "environmentalists" seem to be concerned with the ability of the Earth to sustain human creatures, which is logical since we are humans, but when they say that we could "destroy" the earth, I always think that is a great exaggeration.  Even if we could destroy the earth, which would take using all of our nuclear arsenals to do, the universe would still exist.  Most problems that we humans face are so short-term and display our ignorance of the universe and it's workings.  I can assure you that no matter what man does, our planet will be made uninhabitable by natural causes at some point in the future. It really puts things in perspective :smile:
Quote:


Therefore, it is desirable that industrial civilization should end as soon as possible.



Or that it should evolve to a state where the impact on the earth is lessened.  I'd say that our "industrialized" society, that is, western europe and America, probably produce less pollution per capita than third world nations do and we probably do more to make the earth a better place than most third world nations do.


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Invisibletimetravel
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: ]
    #2338237 - 02/15/04 06:54 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

but i've still got plenty of ammo and nonperishables of course.




I know you are joking but some people have ammo. Why the ammo? Is it for use against the poor who will be the first victim of high gas prices? Yes. Rich people are not going to be roaming for food. The moment the poor can't get to their shitty jobs cause the price of gas is too high is the day the shit is going to hit the fan. The gov won't let you keep or have ammo when the shit hits the fan, they have homeland security to protect ya. And you'll have to just ride out the hard times. No offense against India, but thats where we are headed.


--------------------
Everything in this post happened 7 years ago. If you do not feel good get a hobby like r/c airplane flying.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: NiamhNyx]
    #2338239 - 02/15/04 06:56 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

We have enough coal to last us another 300 years.


--------------------


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Invisibletimetravel
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #2338248 - 02/15/04 06:59 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

We have enough coal to last us another 300 years. 







Try sticking a lump of coal in your gas tank. Won't work!  :grin:


--------------------
Everything in this post happened 7 years ago. If you do not feel good get a hobby like r/c airplane flying.


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Anonymous

Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: timetravel]
    #2338262 - 02/15/04 07:05 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

as we run out of oil, it will become more expensive. i've been to countries in europe where gasoline costs more per liter than it does per gallon here. they tend to use public transportation more, drive smaller vehicles, ride bicycles, etc, etc, etc, in those places, and you know what, the shit hasn't "hit the fan" there yet, and it's not going to.

what do the doomsday people here think should be done about this oil crisis?


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Invisibletimetravel
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: ]
    #2338282 - 02/15/04 07:13 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

i've been to countries in europe where gasoline costs more per liter than it does per gallon here. they tend to use public transportation more,




I lived and worked in germany for 12 years. They have a public transportation system, we do not. We have nothing compared to them. And I have read that it would be economically impossible for the usa to start one. We are broke. The usa was built without public transportation in mind. Germany always had public transportation and built their cities around such a system. We don't even have bike paths. Every sidewalk in germany has a bike path next to it. We are screwed.


--------------------
Everything in this post happened 7 years ago. If you do not feel good get a hobby like r/c airplane flying.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: timetravel]
    #2338304 - 02/15/04 07:21 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Ever heard of electricity?


How about electric cars?


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Invisibletimetravel
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #2338317 - 02/15/04 07:27 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

  Ever heard of electricity?


How about electric cars?




Poor people can't even pay their electric bill and you expect them to buy a new electric car? Anyway we are not tooled up to produce the amount of cars and electricity to power them that will be needed in order to avoid chaos. Remember there are 53 million living on 15k or less in the usa. Thats alot of people and it only takes a week of no food to piss em all off.  :mad2:
This country was built on the fly.


--------------------
Everything in this post happened 7 years ago. If you do not feel good get a hobby like r/c airplane flying.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: timetravel]
    #2338341 - 02/15/04 07:36 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Well it won't really affect the people who already can't afford cars now will it?

I think electric cars will be cheaper than gasoline cars when they catch on. They're actually alot less complicated than heavy expensive internal combustion engines and transmissions, something electric cars don't need.


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Invisibletimetravel
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Re: Collapse of Industrial Civilization [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #2338371 - 02/15/04 07:48 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Well it won't really affect the people who already can't afford cars now will it?





Nope, they will just get mugged alot more often. I don't think it will affect the middle class that much either. I'll pay up to 20bucks a gallon before I start to have trouble.
Its the poor saps who work at shitty jobs just making ends meat and have to drive to work, and there are alot of them, that are going to go through hell.


--------------------
Everything in this post happened 7 years ago. If you do not feel good get a hobby like r/c airplane flying.


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