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Offlineenotake2
Stop Bush's war
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End ot the world as we know it? peak oil *link working!*
    #2333612 - 02/14/04 06:55 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Dear Reader,

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global ?Peak Oil? and related geo-political events.

So who are these nay-sayers who claim the sky is falling? Conspiracy fanatics? Apocalypse Bible prophesy readers? To the contrary, they are some of the most respected, highest paid geologists and experts in the world. And this is what's so scary.

The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question."

According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, "America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."

If you are like 99% of the people reading this letter, you have never heard of the term "Peak Oil". I had not heard the term until a few months ago. Since learning about Peak Oil, I have had my world view, and basic assumptions about my own individual future turned completely upside down.

A little about myself: A few months ago, I was a 25 year old law school graduate who found out he had just passed the California Bar Exam. I was excited about a potentially long and prosperous career in the legal profession, getting married, having kids, contributing to my community, and living the "American Dream."

Peak Oil has caused me to seriously question how realistic this vision of my life is.

Whether you're 25 or 75, an attorney or an auto mechanic, what you are about to read will shake the foundations of your life.

Below you find a brief explanation of Peak Oil, the ramifications, and what we can do about it. For the sake of simplicity, I have designed the following explanation for somebody unfamiliar with Peak Oil. If you would like more in depth explanations with graphs, charts, and the like, please consult the extensive interviews, articles and sites I have linked to throughout this site.


What is "Peak Oil"?

All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out.

Put simply: oil is abundant and cheap on the upslope, scarce and expensive on the downslope.

For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve. "Peak Oil" is the industry term for the top of the curve. It's often referred to as "Hubbert's Peak" a reference to King Hubbert, the geologist who discovered that oil production follows a bell curve.

Once we pass the peak, we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas.

In practical terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world's population in 2020 will be both much larger (appoximately twice as big) and much more industrialized than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace the worldwide production of oil by a significant margin.

The more demand for oil exceeds production of oil, the higher the price goes.

Ultimately, the question is not "When will we run out of oil?" but rather, "When will we run out of cheap oil?"

Find the rest of the article here


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Computer games don't affect kids. I mean if Pacman affected our generation as kids, we'd all be running around in a darkened room, munching pills and listening to repetitive electronic music.

"Being bitter and hateful is like drinking a vial of poison and hoping the other person gets sick" FreakQLibrium

"My motto from here on out is: If someone or something (including me) in my life is conducting themselves in such a way that they can be seen on Jerry Springer, it's time to take out the garbage!!! When you stop taking their behaviour personally and see their antics as a true reflection on their character, it becomes absolutely nauseating." Anon. on abusive relationships.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: enotake2]
    #2333627 - 02/14/04 07:32 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Dude, that is an enormous post.

I will make two requests:

1) Can you explain how the fact that oil is not an infinite resource relates to politics or to activism or to law?

2) Once you have done so, can you provide a link to that monster rather than posting the entire thing? Feel free to include a brief excerpt or two in order to catch our interest if you wish.

pinky


--------------------


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InvisibleClean
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial soc [Re: enotake2]
    #2333660 - 02/14/04 08:21 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

this is very important.
it's all about control


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Invisiblekaiowas
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial soc [Re: enotake2]
    #2333769 - 02/14/04 10:31 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

ok I will try to summarize right after breakfast! and those two questions pinksharkmark asked are answered already by enotake!!  great post!  I'm goinng to check those sources you gave.

a couple of things to chew on before I try to summarize hehe

if those sources measure up, ala the cnn article you gave,  and what bushes Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham quote

"America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives"

not to mention expert geologists perspectives, gotta check to see if those are good as well.

then there's peak oil definition as well that I have to research that out, but if the fact that jimmy carter mentioned it tells me that it's acceptable theory.  this theory is only acceptable because of this one part in this post that did it for me...

" showed this site to a friend and she said, "That's ridiculous, there is tons of oil left! We won't run out for at least 50 years."

Your friend is correct. The immediate crisis we face is not a lack of oil, but a lack of affordable oil.

Once oil production peaks, it will begin to steadily and permanently decline. This will force a prolonged, secular contraction in GDP if adequate substitutes for oil cannot be provided. As explained above, no true substitutes for oil currently exist that can be brought online in sufficient capacity to avert a worldwide crisis"

WOW!!!!!  :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


if this is true then wow.

ask youself this enotake,  do you think humans can live without oil.. would it be that bad?  isn't all this manufacturing the things that's polluting our water and planet in the first place?  could we again live without electricity?



btw


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Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Invisiblekaiowas
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial soc [Re: enotake2]
    #2333770 - 02/14/04 10:31 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

oh yeah, not to mention you and me talked about the re-instatement of the draft, you said around summer of 2005, mine said around june 2005.  :frown:


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Offlineenotake2
Stop Bush's war
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Phred]
    #2334035 - 02/14/04 01:25 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Hi pinky,

1) the post relates to politics because the article explains many of the decisions of the bush administration and for example, patriot act I and II. It also suggests ideas for activism around the issue that, if correct, will affect all of us and our families profoundly.

2) LInk provided. I'll have to think about how to best summarise it or which paragraphs to include. Give me a day .


--------------------
Computer games don't affect kids. I mean if Pacman affected our generation as kids, we'd all be running around in a darkened room, munching pills and listening to repetitive electronic music.

"Being bitter and hateful is like drinking a vial of poison and hoping the other person gets sick" FreakQLibrium

"My motto from here on out is: If someone or something (including me) in my life is conducting themselves in such a way that they can be seen on Jerry Springer, it's time to take out the garbage!!! When you stop taking their behaviour personally and see their antics as a true reflection on their character, it becomes absolutely nauseating." Anon. on abusive relationships.


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InvisibleStarter
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Phred]
    #2336592 - 02/15/04 07:14 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Pinky, isn't war politics in its most dramatic form?

If so, then peak oil is politics.

It's a known oil will run out, it's finite. But what's of more interest is at what point will the oil reserves be economical to exploit?

That's what the article (which I've read) is about and the consequences will be depression, starvation, epidemics and war. Our very way of life reliant on petrochemicals will come to an end without a "B" plan. Of course this could all be complete bollocks and more oil reserves discovered? I really don't know? But it will hit the end at some point as it is finite. Has peak oil already happened in 2000 as said in the article?


--------------------
Convert Metric and Imperial.


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OfflineNiamhNyx
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: enotake2]
    #2337512 - 02/15/04 03:37 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

I'm currently reading "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies." By Richard Heinberg. ITS A FANTASTIC BOOK. I reccommend anyone who's interested in the consequences of Peak Oil read it.



Also these:

http://www.dieoff.com/


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OfflinePhred
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Starter]
    #2340619 - 02/16/04 12:37 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Starter writes:

That's what the article (which I've read) is about and the consequences will be depression, starvation, epidemics and war.

"Will be"? Uh huh.

Having read Erdman and Ehrlich and Toffler and the rest of their ilk thirty years ago, I have more than a little skepticism of such prophesies of doom.

The price of oil will eventually rise to the point where it no longer makes economic sense to burn it in order to produce energy. This does not mean the coming of The Apocalypse, it just means energy will be produced in other manners. Nothing more, nothing less.

However, if some of you feel strongly enough about the thread staying in this forum, fine by me.

pinky


--------------------


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InvisibleStarter
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Phred]
    #2358432 - 02/20/04 10:13 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Did I say that Pinky? I said the article said that.

Read the article, see for yourself.


--------------------
Convert Metric and Imperial.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Starter]
    #2358500 - 02/20/04 10:32 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

First of all, I never said you said that.

As it happens though, you did. Your statement was:

Quote:

That's what the article (which I've read) is about and the consequences will be depression, starvation, epidemics and war.



You first told us what the article covered, then claimed that the consequences of the things covered in the article "... will be depression, starvation, epidemics and war."

If you wanted to say that the article claimed the consequences would be depression, starvation, epidemics and war, your sentence should have been constructed along these lines --

"That's what the article (which I've read) is about and the author claims the consequences will be depression, starvation, epidemics and war."

In either case, it doesn't matter to me whether the assertion is made by the author or by you. It's still a nonsensical assertion.

pinky


--------------------


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OfflineKentuckyPWRLFTR
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Phred]
    #2358733 - 02/20/04 11:32 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Since you want be pedantic toward my friend "Starter",  allow me to do the same with your improperly worded interogatories, you typed:


"1) Can you explain how the fact that oil is not an infinite resource relates to politics or to activism or to law?

2) Once you have done so, can you provide a link to that monster rather than posting the entire thing?"

The word "can" requires only a "yes" or "no" answer. But alas, you wish to have your protagonist de facto explain those things. It is far more clear to write: "Please explain..."

"Starter", I like the reference to Clausewitz :smile:


--------------------
In Xanadu did Kubla Khan a stately pleasure-dome decree...

"The eternal silence of these infinite spaces frightens me."

OCD had rendered me completely insane and not believable.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: KentuckyPWRLFTR]
    #2359039 - 02/20/04 01:14 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Thank you for your advice.

If Starter had not implied that I held the prediction of doom and gloom to be his own opinion, I would not have pointed out his lack of clarity.

If I were inclined to be pedantic, I'd mention that your phrase, "Since you want be pedantic toward my friend..." doesn't follow the rules of English grammar, but I'll let it slide.

pinky


--------------------


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Phred]
    #2359465 - 02/20/04 03:19 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

The difference being that the error you mention has nothing to do with a lack of understanding of english grammar.


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OfflineKentuckyPWRLFTR
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Re: End ot the wolkd as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: Phred]
    #2364564 - 02/21/04 06:26 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

You are quite welcome.

I certainly appreciate your benevolence toward my mistake of leaving out the word "to". Were you perplexed as to whether or not I needed a comma? I merely left out a word. I most certainly understand English grammar and amazingly enough know how to appropiately phrase requests for information.

Would you like me to point out some errors in your other posts in this thread? Exempli Gratia: "If you wanted to say that the article claimed the consequences would be depression, starvation, epidemics and war, your sentence should have been constructed along these lines --" The use of either two dashes or even a hyphen is inappropiate under the circumstances. You should have used a colon.

But hey, who really cares about such innane things?


--------------------
In Xanadu did Kubla Khan a stately pleasure-dome decree...

"The eternal silence of these infinite spaces frightens me."

OCD had rendered me completely insane and not believable.


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InvisibleLe_Canard
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Re: End ot the world as we know it?'Peak oil' and industrial [Re: enotake2]
    #2364819 - 02/21/04 07:41 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Well, if worst comes to worst, there's still a wealth of coal underneath the eastern US. Of course, this would be much more expensive both to extract and process than crude oil.


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Invisiblekaiowas
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Re: End ot the world as we know it? peak oil *link working!* [Re: enotake2]
    #2369008 - 02/22/04 08:15 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

*bump*


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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InvisibleShroomismM
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Re: End ot the world as we know it? peak oil *link working!* [Re: enotake2]
    #2369017 - 02/22/04 08:18 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

hmm.. I suppose it's a good time to start a revolution then huh?

http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat...sb=5&o=&fpart=2


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Invisiblekaiowas
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Re: End ot the world as we know it? peak oil *link working!* [Re: enotake2]
    #2637045 - 05/04/04 03:55 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

bump


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: End ot the world as we know it? peak oil *link working!* [Re: kaiowas]
    #2637226 - 05/04/04 04:41 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Update: The coal is still there, and is still where most of America's energy comes from.


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