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InvisibleConfucian
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Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding
    #22389482 - 10/16/15 05:24 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

List only positive economic news here! Help build the case that the world economy is still expanding, and is not going to contract any time soon. Be as biased as possible - it will help with the objective at hand.

Some Good News About the Global Economy

The IMF garnered headlines last week for lowering their world economic growth outlook. What was less discussed, but potentially more important for investors, was that they maintained their outlook for stronger growth in 2016. They’re not alone. In fact, most forecasters, including the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the consensus of economists’ forecasts tracked by Bloomberg, foresee a stronger world economy in 2016 than in 2015 or 2014.

In particular, the IMF forecasts:

• The euro zone will accelerate slightly (to 1.6%) from the pace in 2015 which was already the fastest growth since 2010.

• Economic growth in the United States will improve slightly (to 2.8%), making for the fastest annual pace of growth since 2005.

• Japan’s weak economy will reaccelerate by about half of a percentage point (to 1.0%) from 2015 in 2016.

• Emerging market economies are also expected to grow about a half of a percentage point faster in 2016 (to 4.5%).

• The biggest downgrades to the IMF growth outlook were in commodity-driven developed and emerging economies in recession: Brazil, Russia, and Canada. Of these, only Canada’s economy is expected to grow in 2016.

In addition, the IMF sees an increase in global inflation from 0.3% in 2015 to 1.2% in 2016, potentially marking a big step back from the risk of deflation


Edited by Confucian (10/17/15 05:22 AM)


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Positive Economic News Only Thread [Re: Confucian]
    #22389500 - 10/16/15 05:27 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

10-16-15

U.S. consumer sentiment rebounds

U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded strongly in early October, suggesting that the economic recovery remained on track despite headwinds from a strong dollar and weak global demand that have weighed on the industrial sector, particularly manufacturing.

The snapback in sentiment reported on Friday underscored robust domestic demand and offered hope that consumer spending would remain solid enough to support economic growth, which has slowed significantly in recent months.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 92.1 in early October from a reading of 87.2 September. The survey's current conditions sub-index shot up to 106.7 this month from 101.2 in September.

The index at current levels has historically been consistent with roughly a 4 percent annualized rate of consumer spending growth, according to economists.

"This suggests that U.S. household sentiment has turned an important corner, and is a hopeful sign on the outlook for consumer spending activity going forward, given signs of weakness in other parts of the economy," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

The rise in sentiment, which likely reflected cheaper gasoline prices, suggested limited impact from recent stock market volatility. Consumers were the most optimistic about their personal financial expectations since 2007.

Their views toward purchases of long-lasting manufactured goods were equally bullish.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and has been the bright spot in the economy as the industrial sector wobbles under the onslaught of slowing global growth and the resurgent dollar, which have eroded demand for U.S. manufactured goods.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Positive Economic News Only Thread [Re: Confucian]
    #22390258 - 10/16/15 08:07 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

10/16/15
WSJ.com

Stocks Post Third Week of Gains: Earnings results proving to be overall better than expected

Stocks rose for the third week in a row as the first batch of third-quarter results were broadly well-received by investors.

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite, it is the longest streak of weekly gains since February.

Helping to boost stocks this week were surprising signs of strength in some corporate earnings reports as well as increased doubts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 74.22 points, or 0.4%, to 17215.97. The S&P 500 edged up 0.5%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0.3%.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.8% and the S&P 500 advanced 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%.

“Investors are starting to look past the issues that were hitting companies in the third quarter,” said Saira Malik, head of global equity portfolio management at TIAA-CREF Asset Management. “We are fairly bullish on the market going forward.”

Heading into October, investors were expecting one of the worst quarters for corporate earnings in years. Though so far results have been choppy, many investors expect beats going forward.

Including results from 58 companies in the S&P 500, earnings are on track to slip 4.6% in the third quarter, according to FactSet. Ahead of the reporting season, analysts had expected earnings to decline 5.1%.

“We’re going to see more positive surprises,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network. “Companies walk in to the analysts and say, ‘The sky is falling.’ Then, of course, it turns out to be not as bad.”

On Friday, General Electric reported a profit that beat Wall Street forecasts. Shares rose 3.4%. Separately, SunTrust Banks Inc. said loans and deposits grew and reported profit growth that on an adjusted basis beat expectations. The bank’s stock rose 1.2%.

Friday’s gains follow a rise in stocks on Thursday after lackluster economic data further eroded expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates this year from ultralow levels. Data on Friday showed U.S. industrial production fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September from a month earlier, the latest sign of a factory slowdown.

“I would be quite surprised this point if we got a rate increase this year,” said Mr. McMillan.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up to 2.026% on Friday, from 2.025% on Thursday. Yields rise as prices fall.

Markets in Asia and Europe also gained Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.1%, closing in on its highest level in a month. The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 1.6% and the Hang Seng Index gained 0.8% as investors also hoped for more stimulus from Beijing. China’s third-quarter growth figures are due Monday.

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%.

On Thursday, U.S. consumer prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September, while manufacturing data remained weak in October. At the same time, U.S. jobless claims matched the lowest level in over 40 years.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley cautioned that his expectation for a rate rise this year depends on the performance of economic data, citing evidence of recent weakening.

In Europe, some upbeat third-quarter earnings have further fueled the rally, according to UniCredit equity strategist Christian Stocker.
“The earnings season is going pretty well. With the Fed now likely to not increase rates until next year, that has brightened the mood,” he said.

In corporate news, shares of United Continental Holdings slipped 3.1% Friday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Oscar Munoz, the new chief of the airline, had a heart attack Thursday and is being treated in a Chicago hospital.

Shares of Twitter climbed 4.9% after Microsoft’s former chief executive, Steve Ballmer, said he owns 4% of the social media company.

In commodities, gold edged down 0.4% to $1,183.60 a troy ounce after logging five consecutive days of gains.

U.S.-traded crude oil rose 1.9% Friday to $47.26 a barrel. For the week, however, it was down 4.8%.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Positive Economic News Only Thread [Re: Confucian]
    #22390282 - 10/16/15 08:12 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

10/15/15

US jobless claims fall 7K, revisit 42-year lows

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell back to a 42-year low last week, suggesting the labor market remained strong despite an abrupt slowdown in job growth in the past two months.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 255,000 for the week ended Oct. 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims were last at this level in July, which was the lowest since November 1973.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,250 to 265,000 last week, the lowest level since December 1973.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 50,000 to 2.16 million in the week ended Oct 3.

That was the lowest reading since November 2000 and suggested the long-term unemployed were finding jobs.



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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Positive Economic News Only Thread [Re: Confucian]
    #22391926 - 10/17/15 05:24 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

10/15/15
NYT.com

Stronger Economy Cited as U.S. Reports Lowest Budget Deficit of Obama’s Tenure

WASHINGTON — The federal budget deficit fell this year to its lowest level since President Obama took office, his administration reported Thursday, a change propelled by an increase in tax receipts amid a strengthening economy.

The deficit was $439 billion in the 2015 fiscal year, $44 billion less than last year, the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget said in a report. The shortfall represents 2.5 percent of the economy, the lowest share since 2007.

“Under the president’s leadership, the deficit has been cut by roughly three-quarters as a share of the economy since 2009 — the fastest sustained deficit reduction since just after World War II,” Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said in a statement released with the figures. The deficit ballooned to $1.4 trillion in 2009, in part because of stimulus spending during the recession.

Government receipts rose by 8 percent over the last year, the report said, which “can be attributed to a stronger economy.” Rising wages drove up collections of individual and payroll taxes, and higher corporate profits led to an increase in business income tax receipts. Also, fees and payments under the Affordable Care Act that took effect in 2015 helped increase federal collections.

The administration cheered the figures as vindication of Mr. Obama’s economic policies and as proof of the resurgence he set in motion after taking office during the depths of the recession.

But the good news came amid uncertainty over whether the White House would be able to strike a budget deal with Republicans to keep the government functioning beyond a December deadline. The administration is also trying to garner support to raise the debt limit before Nov. 3, the date when Mr. Lew said the government would exhaust its ability to borrow.

Mr. Lew, in a letter to lawmakers hours before the deficit numbers were released, moved up by two days his initial estimate of when the statutory borrowing limit would be reached. By Nov. 3, he said, the government would have to resort to “extraordinary measures” to meet federal obligations.

Fiscal hawks called the deficit numbers a positive sign, but they cautioned that the improvement would probably be fleeting. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that deficits will begin to rise again in 2017 if fiscal policies are not overhauled.

Maya MacGuineas, the leader of the Campaign to Fix the Debt, called Thursday’s report “good news,” adding, “Now the bad news: This may well be the lowest it will be for a long time.”


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Confucian]
    #22392193 - 10/17/15 07:59 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)



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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Confucian] * 1
    #22392214 - 10/17/15 08:07 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

The massive decline in world poverty is major and positive.  Rich people think their world is ending because they might not be in the to 10% anymore...  But they lack perspective.

For the most part, humanity has been getting richer and is getting richer year after year, decade after decade, century after century.  The fact that spoiled americans (including myself) complain about having to live in an apartment rather than a 3bdrm house doesn't change that.


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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Confucian] * 1
    #22396189 - 10/18/15 02:09 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)



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Invisiblememes
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: DieCommie]
    #22396362 - 10/18/15 05:43 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

DieCommie said:
The massive decline in world poverty is major and positive.  Rich people think their world is ending because they might not be in the to 10% anymore...  But they lack perspective.

For the most part, humanity has been getting richer and is getting richer year after year, decade after decade, century after century.  The fact that spoiled americans (including myself) complain about having to live in an apartment rather than a 3bdrm house doesn't change that.




yes indeed. 





Confucian, while I like the idea for this thread, i challenge us all to post only actual data that shows a brightening horizon; not projections or other forecasts.


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Confucian]
    #22396390 - 10/18/15 06:18 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

We often hear about our declining standard of living using ideas like "real dollars", "inflation adjusted", etc.  But in fact our standard of living is not decreasing, it is increasing.

Americans have more housing space than generations before, with less people per house.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/04/real_estate/american-home-size/
http://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-households-in-the-us/

Americans consume more food than before.
http://www.usda.gov/factbook/chapter2.pdf

Americans have a longer life expectancy than before, thanks to diminishing infant mortality.
http://demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html

Americans are able to consume more energy than ever before.
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10

Americans have more cars per household.
https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch6en/conc6en/USAownershipcars.html

And of course there are other increases that are hard to graph.  My smartphone costs me $30 a month and affords me more information, communication and power than hundreds of dollars a month would in generations past.

A group of people with a bigger house, more food, more cars, more energy, less infant mortality and more electronic gadgets does not have a lower standard of living.  The American standard of living is on the rise, along with the rest of the world.


I would suggest that American's perceptions and baseline expectations are on the rise too, and on the rise faster than our standard of living.  This disconnect is what fuels the myth that our standard of living is diminishing. 


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Confucian]
    #22407200 - 10/20/15 04:38 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Home builder sentiment was up again this month!


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22409330 - 10/20/15 01:22 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Yeah, americans are able to eat more food now, I notice that in the streets. Some are carting around a few extra months worth of food on them.

The good news is the global recession and depression have not hit yet.

Another bit of good news is obumble will be in charge not much longer giving us a chance to recover.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22411090 - 10/20/15 08:22 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I've never seen an emaciated homeless ever in the states.  I've seen some emaciated tweakers and anorexics.  I have also seen the food banks and soup kitchens go out and try to get homeless to come get their food...  Imagine that, having to peddle free food.  When we ate from the food bank and soup kitchen it was more than enough.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: DieCommie]
    #22412331 - 10/21/15 06:03 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

We often hear about our declining standard of living using ideas like "real dollars", "inflation adjusted", etc.  But in fact our standard of living is not decreasing, it is increasing.








Because you are a conservative, you are probably going to ignore, discredit or twist these facts or even defend them as being right  :herpyderp:


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Asante] * 1
    #22413344 - 10/21/15 11:26 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Inequality does not necessarily mean people are getting poorer.  It means some people are getting richer faster than others, which is what you expect with exponential growth.  It means there is more jealously.

The real wealth inequality problem is the one between the west and the rest of the world.  That inequality is unsustainable and unfair.  But even then, the poorest of the world are indeed getting richer. 

This is a thread on positive news, why are you derailing it?  You accuse me of ignoring facts, but I posted a slew of facts.  You posted a propaganda video.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: DieCommie]
    #22425986 - 10/24/15 06:28 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Who can still afford dad working, a stay at home mom raising the kids in a house that is their own?

Not many.

Apart from the sexist pitch, single income households on mediocre jobs could do it all.

Did you see the bottom 40% almost vanish off that graph?


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Asante]
    #22484662 - 11/06/15 07:08 AM (8 years, 2 months ago)

11/06/15
NYT.com

U.S. Economy Added 271,000 Jobs in October; Unemployment Rate at 5.0%



The American economy added 271,000 jobs in October, a very strong showing that makes an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve much more likely when policy makers meet next month.

The report on hiring and unemployment, released Friday by the Labor Department, was eagerly anticipated on Wall Street, where traders and economists have been sifting each new bit of economic data for any augury of the central bank’s course.

The unemployment rate dipped to 5.0 percent, from 5.1 in September.

At this level, the unemployment rate is close to what would normally be considered the threshold for full employment by the Fed and many private economists.

However, the so-called slack that built up in the labor market after the recession has altered traditional calculations of how far unemployment can fall before the job market tightens and the risk of inflation rises.

This week, Janet L. Yellen, the chairwoman of the Fed, told a panel on Capitol Hill that an increase in December was a “live possibility” if the economy continued to perform well.

Still, Ms. Yellen left herself and the rest of the Open Market Committee of the Fed plenty of wiggle room, emphasizing that no decision had been made on whether to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Indeed, they will have an additional jobs report for November in hand by the time they gather for their last meeting of the year, on Dec. 15 and 16.

Although the initial interest rate increase would be small, most likely a quarter of a percentage point, with rates’ having sat near zero since the depths of the recession in late 2008, any increase would represent a new era for investors and borrowers here and abroad.

Before the report on Friday, economists had been anticipating a payroll increase of about 180,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged from September’s level.


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OfflineCyber
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Asante]
    #22485214 - 11/06/15 09:58 AM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
Who can still afford dad working, a stay at home mom raising the kids in a house that is their own?

Not many.

Apart from the sexist pitch, single income households on mediocre jobs could do it all.

Did you see the bottom 40% almost vanish off that graph?





Wait a sec, The above is BS.

I am a working dad, with a stay at home mom and a house. We did it when I was making $10 an hr back in the 90's.

It can be done, it is not easy and you have to give up a lot of stuff to do it. Most people can't do it because they dont want to live in a budget. They want things like big screen TV's, eating out 5 nights a week, and a new car. In almost all cases they are willing to go into debt to do it. Thus pawning there future for instant gratification and possessions that will loose value over the long run.

Because we chose it early and have always lived within our means, we have the things most dont.

At 45 I am 3 years away from paying of my house.
We have NO other Debt!

We have managed our money properly and have always worked to save.

Peoples lack of money management and their willingness to go into debt is not a direct sign of economic issues.


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OfflineCyber
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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Cyber]
    #22485244 - 11/06/15 10:03 AM (8 years, 2 months ago)

"The current national unemployment rate is 5.1%, down from 6.1% at this time last year. While overall unemployment is low, the IT unemployment rate remains much lower at 2.9%. "

http://www.upp.com/it-unemployment-rates


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Positive Economic News: Building a Case that the World Economy is Expanding [Re: Asante]
    #22486194 - 11/06/15 01:40 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
Who can still afford dad working, a stay at home mom raising the kids in a house that is their own?

Not many.

Apart from the sexist pitch, single income households on mediocre jobs could do it all.

Did you see the bottom 40% almost vanish off that graph?




At the standard of living generations ago, yes most can still do that.  It means no restaurants, cooking from scratch, one car, no internet, small house, repairing your socks, no automatic dishwasher, no cell phone, etc.

The thing that has changed is expectations.  People don't want to repair their socks anymore.


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