|
ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



Registered: 03/11/15
Posts: 20,855
Loc: Foreign Lands
|
A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century
#22331918 - 10/04/15 09:37 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr043743#t=article
Quote:
Life-extending technology that might lead to much higher life expectancies does not yet exist and, should it be developed, must be widely implemented before it would influence statistics on population levels. We believe that potential forms of technology do not justify developing or revising forecasts of life expectancy. Extrapolation models fail to consider the health status of people currently alive and explicitly assume that the past can predict the future. Given that past gains in life expectancy have largely been a product of saving the young, and since future gains must result from extending life among the old, another quantum leap in life expectancy can occur only if the future is different from the past.14
An informed approach to forecasting life expectancy should rely on trends in health and mortality that may be observed in the current population. Forecasting life expectancy by extrapolating from the past is like forecasting the weather on the basis of its history. Looking out the window, we see a threatening storm — obesity — that will, if unchecked, have a negative effect on life expectancy. Despite widespread knowledge about how to reduce the severity of the problem, observed trends in obesity continue to worsen. These trends threaten to diminish the health and life expectancy of current and future generations.
Finally, our forecast has other public-policy implications. Dire predictions about the impending bankruptcy of Social Security based on the SSA's projections of large increases in survival past 65 years of age appear to be premature. However, this “benefit” will occur at the expense of the economy in the form of lost productivity before citizens reach retirement and large increases in Medicare costs associated with obesity and its complications.63 Presently, annual health care costs attributable to obesity are conservatively estimated at $70 billion to $100 billion.64,65 With rapid increases in the prevalence of diabetes, and a decrease in mean age at the onset of diabetes, the cost of treating diabetes-related complications, such as heart disease, stroke, limb amputation, renal failure, and blindness, will increase substantially. A similar escalation of health care costs from other complications associated with obesity (e.g., cardiovascular disease, hypertension, asthma, cancer, and gastrointestinal problems) is inevitable. The U.S. population may be inadvertently saving Social Security by becoming more obese, but the price to be paid by obese people themselves and the economy is already high enough to justify considerably increased spending on public health interventions aimed at reducing the incidence and severity of obesity.
Unless effective population-level interventions to reduce obesity are developed, the steady rise in life expectancy observed in the modern era may soon come to an end and the youth of today may, on average, live less healthy and possibly even shorter lives than their parents. The health and life expectancy of minority populations may be hit hardest by obesity, because within these subgroups, access to health care is limited and childhood and adult obesity has increased the fastest.67 In fact, if the negative effect of obesity on life expectancy continues to worsen, and current trends in prevalence suggest it will, then gains in health and longevity that have taken decades to achieve may be quickly reversed. The optimism of scientists and of policymaking bodies about the future course of life expectancy should be tempered by a realistic acknowledgment that major threats to the health and longevity of younger generations today are already visible
discuss hysterically
--------------------
Like cannabis topics? Read my cannabis blog here
|
Patlal
You ask too many questions



Registered: 10/09/10
Posts: 44,797
Loc: Ottawa
Last seen: 5 hours, 50 minutes
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: ballsalsa]
#22331959 - 10/04/15 09:58 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Finally, mother nature found a way to manage human population control. We have been thwarting her on every every attempt.
--------------------
|
larry.fisherman
shoulda died already



Registered: 11/03/12
Posts: 36,294
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: Patlal]
#22331966 - 10/04/15 10:00 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Patlal said: Finally
|
ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



Registered: 03/11/15
Posts: 20,855
Loc: Foreign Lands
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: Patlal]
#22332085 - 10/04/15 10:30 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Patlal said: Finally, mother nature found a way to manage human population control. We have been thwarting her on every every attempt.
Nature: "Heart Disease FTW! Suck it human noobs!"
--------------------
Like cannabis topics? Read my cannabis blog here
|
Prisoner#1
Even Dumber ThanAdvertized!


Registered: 01/22/03
Posts: 193,665
Loc: Pvt. Pubfag NutSuck
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: Patlal]
#22332094 - 10/04/15 10:32 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Patlal said: Finally, mother nature found a way to manage human population control. We have been thwarting her on every every attempt.
we'll just put more warning labels on shit and give the big FUCK YOU! to mother nature
|
Patlal
You ask too many questions



Registered: 10/09/10
Posts: 44,797
Loc: Ottawa
Last seen: 5 hours, 50 minutes
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: ballsalsa]
#22332105 - 10/04/15 10:34 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
ballsalsa said:
Quote:
Patlal said: Finally, mother nature found a way to manage human population control. We have been thwarting her on every every attempt.
Nature: "Heart Disease FTW! Suck it human noobs!"
Heart disease: The human male's only predator
--------------------
|
Konyap

Registered: 06/30/07
Posts: 33,945
Loc: Planet Piss
Last seen: 4 years, 2 months
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: Patlal]
#22333412 - 10/04/15 04:09 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
I read somewhere that lung cancers only cost a fraction of what diabetics cost because they get it and die.
You cant' complain about fat people though, they really think they have a thyroid problem. I don't want to act like I'm better then them because they'd have to go to the gym for years to see a change and most people are just tired from work and what not, still can not put up with that loud snoring...
|
ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



Registered: 03/11/15
Posts: 20,855
Loc: Foreign Lands
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: Patlal]
#22333532 - 10/04/15 04:46 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Patlal said:
Quote:
ballsalsa said:
Quote:
Patlal said: Finally, mother nature found a way to manage human population control. We have been thwarting her on every every attempt.
Nature: "Heart Disease FTW! Suck it human noobs!"
Heart disease: The human male's only predator
i saw a table when i was looking this shit up that showed men under 45 leading cause of death to be "unintentional injury", but then every age group after 45 was "heart disease"
--------------------
Like cannabis topics? Read my cannabis blog here
|
specialpeopleclub



Registered: 04/10/14
Posts: 5,584
Loc: Mitten
Last seen: 3 years, 7 months
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: ballsalsa]
#22333602 - 10/04/15 05:04 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Take care of your body. Tell someone that, all you will shet is indognation, because americans are fatalistic morons. It;s sad people can't do something like thIs. We do have so many health myths, which makes people confused, so they give up and let it go. More life for the rest of us. Thay is how it works
--------------------
|
Patlal
You ask too many questions



Registered: 10/09/10
Posts: 44,797
Loc: Ottawa
Last seen: 5 hours, 50 minutes
|
Re: A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the U.S. in the 21st Century [Re: ballsalsa]
#22333604 - 10/04/15 05:04 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
ballsalsa said:
Quote:
Patlal said:
Quote:
ballsalsa said:
Quote:
Patlal said: Finally, mother nature found a way to manage human population control. We have been thwarting her on every every attempt.
Nature: "Heart Disease FTW! Suck it human noobs!"
Heart disease: The human male's only predator
i saw a table when i was looking this shit up that showed men under 45 leading cause of death to be "unintentional injury", but then every age group after 45 was "heart disease"
So stupidity as a young man, heart disease as an older man
--------------------
|
|