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Invisiblezorbman
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Global Depression IMMINENT
    #22315521 - 09/30/15 06:10 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

In my opinion, history will record October 2015 as the beginning of an historic global depression beginning in Europe, then spreading to the U.S.. There are plenty of signs, some of which some of you have already very ably pointed out.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates too low for too long, and a number of asset bubbles have formed as a result. Bubbles that are in the process of popping. The proximate one is the commodity bubble.

There are a number of possible triggers: One is the ongoing collapse of Glencore - a multinational mining and commodity trading company. Their stock was down 29 percent Monday and almost the same the following day I believe. At one time this was the 10th largest company in the world!

They owe twice what they are worth and their debt was recently downgraded to just above junk bond status. In fact, they were downgraded 7 years to the day after Lehman Brothers was downgraded. As most of you remember, 3 months later they collapsed, officially kicking off the Great Recession. It's been a little over 3 months since Glencore was downgraded. I think it was June 9th.

Another is Trafigura. Also I'm hearing Deutsche Bank is in trouble. They have a lot of exposure to Glencore and trillions in derivatives. They are laying people off. Folks, this ain't Greece! We're talking the largest bank in Germany -- the only country keeping Europe afloat. If they go down, they'll take the rest of Europe down with them. Also, Volkswagen -- the largest employer in Germany -- is tanking because of the Dieselgate scandal.

It also appears the junk bond market is starting to tank. That's how it'd begin -- on the periphery. 

People are expecting the classic stock market collapse, although I think the U.S. stock market could have a significant correction,  I think the bubble is in the bond market. The last economic crisis never ended. It was just papered over. Literally. Nothing was done to address the root causes of the crisis, and debt has skyrocketed since then. The Too Big To Fail banks are even bigger. No one went to jail.

Central banks think they can control everything and not allow a cleansing recession to occur. It's like a forest fire. These are usually natural events that clear out the dead wood and make way for new growth. When they are suppressed every single time, the dry brush builds up, and when the fire DOES hit, it's god awful.

This is going to be SEISMIC and, I believe, eventually result in the collapse of the global financial system. Key thing to realize is that this is a process, not a single event!

Money can be made. I'm shorting Europe big time. I think it kicks off this October and most likely in the first week or two of the month. The U.S. should be the last man standing and could hold up for a year or two.

Buckle up!!


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22316961 - 10/01/15 12:12 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Yea, we shall see.  I think we will see oil under $60 a barrel for the next calendar year.  Aside from Glencore, there are a bunch of energy companies on the verge of bankruptcy like Goodrich Patroleum and Halcon Resources.  Your comment about Deutsche bank is a poignant one.  Tons of banks have massive credit lines to energy and materials and with the asset re-evaluation to come over the next month, that will send some companies into bankruptcy. 

I was just reading about an energy merger earlier today and I think there are many more to come in Q1 2016.  With Q3 reports due in October, I think the market is going to get crushed when people learn how bad it really is.  Housing is teetering on the edge and the blast up in home value was not really predicated by any tangible change.  While many analysts seem to think there will be an end of year rally, I don't see how that will be possible based on the trends so far.  There has been no change in the overall fundamentals to suggest that and things will only get worse with an imminent rate increase.  The Fed clearly don't know what the fuck they are doing as when they didn't raise rates, they cited concerns over the global economy and the failure for the inflation rate to hit the target 2% by a large margin; however, a mere week later they claimed that they would raise rates if inflation remained the same as things "looked better" when actually nothing had changed.  Importantly, I really don't think chinese ecomonic data can be believed and the data is most likely skewed upward from the reality.

That said, I think QE and decreasing interest rates in Europe will keep the markets afloat for the near term.  Internationally, we should be keeping our eye on Venezuela, South Africa, Brazil, and Russia which remain in recession.  An economic collapse in especially the last 2 could send the world spiraling out of control.  I remain bullish on Chesapeake Energy, Freeport McMoran, and Transocean for good super cheap buys over the next year during the temporary rally for some easy money to be made.  The first wave was dividend cancellation from tons of companies, now we are seeing large layoffs and pending mergers.  Once we see a wave of bankruptcy filings and mergers, I think it will be time to buy and hold for the next 1-2 years and re-evaluate.  We are definitely teetering on the verge of the abyss.  Hard to say what will happen from there.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


Edited by All We Perceive (10/01/15 12:32 AM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22317077 - 10/01/15 01:01 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

I think we will see oil under $60 a barrel for the next calendar year.




I agree. And probably well under as this deflationary wave sweeps over.

Also agree with you pretty much on which countries to watch. As for Brazil, S&P cut their debt rating to junk bond status.

Quote:

Deutsche bank is a poignant one.  Tons of banks have massive credit lines to energy and materials..





One thing I didn't mention is Deutsche Bank has 75 trillion in exposure to derivatives. That's crazy considering the entire economy of Germany only pulls 4 trillion a year!

Quote:

..and with the asset re-evaluation to come over the next month, that will send some companies into bankruptcy.




That is one interesting thing to me. As these companies go belly up, the loss of production sets the stage for the next rally in commodities. I don't have a good feel for when that will happen yet. I'm too focused on the immediate situation in Europe.

Quote:

That said, I think QE and decreasing interest rates in Europe will keep the markets afloat for the near term.




Normally, that would probably be the case. I think that central banks have shot their wad though. The markets just don't seem to be responding positively anymore to their pronouncements. They're in the corner with the gun pointed at the monster, but they've fired all their bullets.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22317486 - 10/01/15 05:22 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
In my opinion, history will record October 2015 as the beginning of an historic global depression beginning in Europe, then spreading to the U.S..





I think you are 100% wrong.

1) Europe is not a country. There are 50 countries that make up Europe - all with their own unique problems. You cannot just group 50 countries together and act like they are 1.

2) History has already known that parts of Europe went through and is still in a Great Recession. Greece is currently in a depression. The debt crisis is well documented since 2009.

3) By definition, in order for a region to be in a recession, you need 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This has not happened. The economies of the 19 countries in the Eurozone grew by .3% in Q2 and .4% in Q1.



Quote:

zorbman said:There are a number of possible triggers: One is the ongoing collapse of Glencore - a multinational mining and commodity trading company. Their stock was down 29 percent Monday and almost the same the following day I believe.




1 Random no-name stock has absolutely zero affect on the stock market. Nobody cares or should care about Glencore. It has zero impact on anything and is 1 random meaningless stock that nobody cares about.

Also - it recovered every penny that it dropped.



Edited by Confucian (10/01/15 05:33 AM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22319097 - 10/01/15 01:04 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

1) Europe is not a country. There are 50 countries that make up Europe - all with their own unique problems. You cannot just group 50 countries together and act like they are 1.




The European Union shares a single market, a monetary union, and loose borders between member states. It consists of 28 countries with strong economic and political ties. What affects one affects the others. We live in a global economy anyway. When strong economies like Germany, China, and Brazil begin slowing, it affects everyone. Debt requires economic growth. Where in the world do you see the needed growth coming from?

Quote:

2) History has already known that parts of Europe went through and is still in a Great Recession. Greece is currently in a depression. The debt crisis is well documented since 2009.




Yes of course. I saw that one coming too. I am saying that the debt crisis has reached the End Game. The bubble is about to POP! And Europe itself isn't yet in a depression as far as we know.

Quote:

3) By definition, in order for a region to be in a recession, you need 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This has not happened. The economies of the 19 countries in the Eurozone grew by .3% in Q2 and .4% in Q1.




You don't know you are actually in a technical recession or depression except in the rear view mirror when the numbers come in. As Perceive said, "We shall see."

Quote:

1 Random no-name stock has absolutely zero affect on the stock market. Nobody cares or should care about Glencore. It has zero impact on anything and is 1 random meaningless stock that nobody cares about.

Also - it recovered every penny that it dropped.




It's down 70 percent for the year. And the 10th largest company in the world is hardly inconsequential. Most people didn't know about AIG before the '08 crisis either. But as I mentioned before, I don't see this as primarily a stock market event. It's mainly a bond market event/process with some stock market spillover. But forget about Glencore for now. As I also mentioned, it is only one of a multitude of potential triggers for the next stage of the economic crisis. You won't see it until it's already happened.

If I'm looking at an unstable building filled with gasoline and pedestrians below lighting cigarettes, I may not know which particular individual it will be, but I know one thing: There's gonna be a LOT of crispy critters real soon!! :grin:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblefilthyknees
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22319573 - 10/01/15 03:01 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

with full disclosure I only read the title of the thread here is my opinion:

those in power will not allow absolute collapse just fluctuation because it's not in their interests as it would create a less economically viable situation for their earnings to have value.


--------------------
But if you're in a hurry, and really got to go
If you're in a hurry, might have to find out slow
That it's one thing to try and another to fly
You get there quicker just a step at a time
It's one thing to bark, another to bite
The show ain't over till you pack up at night


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman] * 1
    #22320241 - 10/01/15 05:51 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

You also ardently predicted hyper inflation in 2012 and you were wrong.  You regularly predict doom and gloom that doesn't come to fruition.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: DieCommie]
    #22320315 - 10/01/15 06:12 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

It was 2011 and admittedly I blew that one. But I did accurately predict the 2008 economic crisis and false economic recovery. You conveniently leave that out. Sixty six percent is a damn good batting average.

And I don't "regularly predict doom and gloom". That's just bullshit. I call 'em as I see 'em. When I see booms, I call them as well.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: filthyknees]
    #22320361 - 10/01/15 06:23 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

filthyknees said:
with full disclosure I only read the title of the thread here is my opinion:

those in power will not allow absolute collapse just fluctuation because it's not in their interests as it would create a less economically viable situation for their earnings to have value.




So if the people "in charge" have the power to stop it, why did we have The Great Recession of 2008? The Great Depression itself?

What about the Panic of 1893? The Panic of 1813? The Tulip Bubble?

And every other financial crisis and panic throughout history?

Markets and economies are forces of Nature. It's pure hubris to think they can be controlled over the long haul by some man behind the curtain. All they can do is forestall the ultimate result, making it much worse when it unfolds.

Also, people don't need markets to only move up to make money. You can make money when the markets fall as well. For example, I made a 300% profit in six weeks on the VIX last month by betting right on volatility.


Edited by zorbman (10/01/15 06:32 PM)


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22320799 - 10/01/15 07:42 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I honestly don't remember you making either of those predictions.

How long until we know whether this prediction comes to fruition or not?


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: DieCommie]
    #22320904 - 10/01/15 08:05 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

DieCommie said:
I honestly don't remember you making either of those predictions.

How long until we know whether this prediction comes to fruition or not?




That's okay. Some were in posts, others were in sigs which don't stay with the post. It doesn't matter because I don't base what I claim upon my supposed authority or even accuracy -- just on the facts as I've layed them out here.

How long? I would guess by late summer at the latest. Btw, the government doesn't declare depressions. In fact, the word "recession" is a fairly recent term. They used to just call everything a "depression" - meaning a downturn in the economy.

To be clear, what I am forecasting is the beginning of a sustained, global economic downturn beginning this month in Europe. It will only be visible in the rear view mirror, as are all long term trends.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22321188 - 10/01/15 08:57 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Global economic downturn means a reduction in the global GDP?  Or some other metric?


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: DieCommie]
    #22321404 - 10/01/15 09:57 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I don't have a strong feel for the precise trigger to get the party started. It could be GDP, it could be unemployment, it could (and probably will) be a sudden spike in interest rates. (When they do rise, I expect them to go up much faster than most people expect.) Whatever the case may be, I don't think there's going to be much disagreement about it when we look back on this time period.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22325058 - 10/02/15 06:20 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Its debt that is creating the crisis, the unspoken elephant in the room. Debt is what brought down Greece and will bring down many other countries. In some cases it was because of falling commodity prices, Russia and Venezuela were hit hard by that, others hit but not as hard.

Lets just look at usa for a moment. Its a single country and owes over $18T in federal debt and much more than that in state, county, and municipal debt. This is simply not payable. So what happens when there is an unpayable debt? Look at Greece for the answer.

USA has stayed afloat thus far due in great measure to its reputation as the world super power. Many countries use the us dollar as the official or unofficial currency. In many places its preferred over the official money which goes down in value all the time. We are the last one standing but even we will go under.

What will be the end game? That is the interesting part. Oil has been pushed down because of falling demand but it will go back up one day. Gold has been manipulated down, it will go up along with silver big time. Will commodities really go up or will it be currency going down? Perhaps both? Loads of qe leads to that. Some countries can't print money fast enough because it loses value faster than they can create more. Take Zimbabwe and the 100 trillion dollar bills for example.

Housing will not fall, there may be fluctuations but there is a genuine housing shortage. Come what may, people have to live somewhere. They can give up gold, give up a fancy car, trade down to a flip phone but they have to live somewhere and that will be a house or apt, condo, etc.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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OfflineBoomertown
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22325162 - 10/02/15 06:46 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Isn't it all about fear anyways. For all of the 99% that have money invested, these possible "popping bubbles", scare them into selling off stock or cashing in bonds early, which drops prices and values of companies. Which makes prime opportunity for bigger companies that are doing fine to come in and suck up the failing ones. After a drawn out rocky few months everything ends up fine again. After the smoke clears from that we have just bigger companies.

I for-see this happening over and over again until a few companies or families own everything. Or can sway there massive power around to thwart any up and coming companies to take foot hold.


I just dont see how the world economy will collapse, when most countries are in massive debt. The U.S. for instance, we don't have any money. We have an ever accumulating debt. There is no way to get out of that debt. It will never happen, not in our lifetimes or 50 generations from now.

Now here is a my twist on this whole thing, the 1% are sucking everything dry. Meanwhile space exploration is happening in full force right now. The fact that supposedly just found out about water on mars is highly unlikely. I feel like its been known for a loooong time. Anyways bacck to the point. The 1% are eventually going to build some crazy space colonyship and fly away leaving us with nothing. Thats going to be the "global collapse". Either they let us live and figure shit out on out own. Or they will be smart and know we outnumber them by billions. Nuke the whole planet. And go start somewhere fresh.

_boomertowns prediction for the future_


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22325430 - 10/02/15 07:32 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I think that's a sound analysis of the situation, Stonehenge. The entire world is choked up to its eyeballs with bad debt, and it hasn't been allowed to be purged from the system by market forces. If you had normal economic growth, you could manage most of this debt. That's what these supposedly smart people don't get. Growth is D-E-A-D. Every dollar they injected into the system used to get us a dollar's worth of GDP. That number has been steadily shrinking year after year. It ain't working anymore!! END GAME.

I think what we're seeing now is central banks rapidly losing control. Market movers are realizing the Emperor has no clothes, and the frail woman behind the curtain has been exposed. She's Yellen but it won't do any good!

Quote:

Housing will not fall, there may be fluctuations but there is a genuine housing shortage. Come what may, people have to live somewhere. They can give up gold, give up a fancy car, trade down to a flip phone but they have to live somewhere and that will be a house or apt, condo, etc.




That's the only part I'm not so sure about. I actually expect the real estate market to tank but admittedly, I haven't looked into it that closely. Yes, people will always need housing, but it doesn't necessarily equal one house per family. You are seeing more and more multi-generational households as people attempt to lower their cost of living by sharing it. The housing shortage you spoke of might buy us some time though.

One thing's for sure: These next few years are going to be absolutely amazing (and scary) to live through and hopefully very profitable for some of us.  We just need some actual leadership in DC to make the correct decisions and Soon. Me? I'm not holding my breath.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/02/15 07:42 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Boomertown]
    #22325462 - 10/02/15 07:37 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I'll give Stonehenge a chance to respond before I do. I think you made some good points, although I came to a somewhat different conclusion.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Boomertown]
    #22325594 - 10/02/15 07:55 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

>I just dont see how the world economy will collapse, when most countries are in massive debt. The U.S. for instance, we don't have any money. We have an ever accumulating debt. There is no way to get out of that debt. It will never happen, not in our lifetimes or 50 generations from now.

You answered your own question. The debt will tank the world economy, its doing it right now. There are many other factors of course but unpayable debt is high on the list.

What we can do is debase the currency through qe or some other method. The debt is in fixed dollars so if a hundred dollars in 10 years buys what 10 dollars buys today, we can pay off the debt cheap. Treasury holders will not be happy but they will get their money

The alternative is a run on treasuries with everyone wanting to cash them in. We can't have that so we have to buy back whatever anyone wants to sell even if it means printing more money to do it.

Zorb, you have a point about multi generational families living in the same house or building. The millenials are not moving out on their own, many of them are staying with mom and dad. This is taking pressure off the housing market but bottom line is you have to have a place to live. People will work a job just for housing, the wife can work for food and the kids pay off the utilities, or something.

Certain things will always be in demand; food, water, transportation and a place to live.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Boomertown]
    #22325777 - 10/02/15 08:29 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I agree with Stonehenge. It can go two ways: You can default on the debt or inflate your way out. I am torn as to what will ultimately happen. I used to be firmly in the Inflate camp, but lately I'm leaning towards some type of default.

But you're right that the elite make money when every asset bubble pops, I'm just not convinced they are deliberately blown up for that purpose. The elite definitely have inside info though and profit every time.

I think this one is different though. We're talking a bond bubble here that has been inflating for DECADES. The entire global economy is built upon debt. Money IS debt! When this bubble pops it will, in my opinion, destroy the entire financial system. Then all bets are off. The ENTIRE shithouse will go up in flames. We could see the pitchforks come out. You will definitely see an increase in tyranny, civil unrest, war, and revolutions during this period. That's what makes this particular bubble aftermath so scary. Sure, if you're nimble you can make money. But can you keep it out of the hands of the government? Or your neighbor's?


Edited by zorbman (10/02/15 08:42 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22326697 - 10/03/15 01:57 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

For the 10th month in a row, US Factory Orders dropped year-over-year - the longest streak outside of a recession in history.

Look at the previous times this has happened. ALL Recessions:



--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22332036 - 10/04/15 10:15 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
Its debt that is creating the crisis, the unspoken elephant in the room.

Housing will not fall, there may be fluctuations but there is a genuine housing shortage. Come what may, people have to live somewhere. They can give up gold, give up a fancy car, trade down to a flip phone but they have to live somewhere and that will be a house or apt, condo, etc.




Basic economics and logic dictates that you (central banks) can't "solve" a debt problem by increasing the debt indefinitely.  Japan is really the "model" here we should be looking at, on many levels.  Abenomics is QE on steroids, in fact I think now Abe calls it QQE. 

We are also on the brink of likely direct "fiscal stimulus" where the central banks inject money into the system in the form of checks to "deserving" (illegal aliens) recipients.  This used to be done and who could possibly resist cashing and spending money for nothing?

The amount of debt is so far in excess of the money available to pay for it, that another 88 trillion would have to be "printed" to satisfy it.  What most don't understand about leveraging, is the deleveraging process that inevitably occurs.  It's already starting, as the EM money flow is no longer into the EMs, but out of the EMs. 

Oil prices surely will be retesting 40 sooner than going back over 50.  Where's the demand?  It isn't there, but there's more than enough supply, and massive amounts sitting idle in tanks and tankers.

The Baltic Index reflects the lack of shipping demand and demand for commodities.

Many many stocks are already in bear market territory.  Earnings will be crap this year except for the companies such as HD and LOW who keep increasing their long term debt so they can keep buying back ever more expensive shares in their company stock.  This is truly a Ponzi Scheme where the owners are fleecing investors into believing what a great investment it is because it "goes up every year" as the companies pay big stock option bonuses and really only buy shares to benefit themselves at the expense of shareholders who lose equity in spades when the whole house of cards come tumbling down. 


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Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (10/04/15 10:18 AM)


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22333931 - 10/04/15 06:15 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

"I built a new indicator of US economic activity which contains 17 components ranging from lumber prices and high-yield bond spreads to the inventory-to-sales ratio. It was necessary to construct such an indicator because six years of extreme monetary policy in the US (and other developed markets) has stripped “traditional” cyclical economic data of any real meaning.."  -- Charles Gave

As you can see, each time the indicator dipped to -5, we were either in a recession or one was imminent.



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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22338881 - 10/05/15 09:59 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Lunar, how bad do you see it getting?


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22339797 - 10/06/15 06:08 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Bad enough where the IMF/World Bank/BIS need to "step in" and "save us" just like they are "saving" Greece now...


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22343273 - 10/06/15 10:32 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Bad enough where the IMF/World Bank/BIS need to "step in" and "save us" just like they are "saving" Greece now...




I think they're not really saving anyone. They're just delaying the inevitable. And I don't see how they can save a country the size of the United States.

Who will bail out the bailers? :lol:


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Edited by zorbman (10/06/15 10:56 PM)


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22348506 - 10/08/15 02:39 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

October 8, 2015

Today Deutsche Bank announced a $7 billion quarterly loss from impaired asset write-downs litigation reserves. 

Deutsche Bank, at $75 trillion in holdings, is the largest derivatives player in the world now.  This amount of derivatives is 20x greater than the GDP of Germany.  And that’s DB’s “net” exposure.  As counterparties default, that $75 trillion blossoms at a geometric rate. Deutsche Bank is too big for the German Government to bail-out without implementing Weimar-era money printing.  It’s balance sheet is a nuclear cesspool of toxic assets.

DB is not only now the lethal sovereign risk of Germany, it is the sovereign risk of the entire EU. Whereas Bear Stearns [and] Lehman [Brothers] triggered the Great Financial Collapse in the U.S., Deutsche Bank could potentially trigger the collapse of the global financial system.


http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22350056 - 10/08/15 01:02 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Day After Deutsche Bank Admits Not All Is Well, Swiss Giant Credit Suisse Also Admits It Needs More Cash

.. The real reason, of course, has nothing to do with this, and everything to do with the collapse of manipulation cartels involving Liebor, FX, commodities, bonds, equities, gold, and so on, because when banks can no longer collude with each other to push markets in any given direction, that's when they start losing money. That and, of course, the fact that central bank intervention in capital markets has made it virtually impossible to trade any more. Or as they call it, "miss capital ratios."

Expect many more such announcements in the coming weeks.


I hope so!! :strokebeard: :cheer:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-08/day-after-deutsche-bank-admits-not-all-well-swiss-giant-credit-suisse-also-admits-it


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22354285 - 10/09/15 11:22 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
October 8, 2015

Today Deutsche Bank announced a $7 billion quarterly loss from impaired asset write-downs litigation reserves. 

Deutsche Bank, at $75 trillion in holdings, is the largest derivatives player in the world now.  This amount of derivatives is 20x greater than the GDP of Germany.  And that’s DB’s “net” exposure.  As counterparties default, that $75 trillion blossoms at a geometric rate. Deutsche Bank is too big for the German Government to bail-out without implementing Weimar-era money printing.  It’s balance sheet is a nuclear cesspool of toxic assets.

DB is not only now the lethal sovereign risk of Germany, it is the sovereign risk of the entire EU. Whereas Bear Stearns [and] Lehman [Brothers] triggered the Great Financial Collapse in the U.S., Deutsche Bank could potentially trigger the collapse of the global financial system.


http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/




Check out the Chinese bank, Hua Xia, that DB owns 20% of.  They use WMP to Ponzi the Chinese people with supposedly guaranteed returns in the shadow but not really market.  A couple of years ago some Chinese investors lost all their money, let alone didn't make a "guaranteed" return.  The CONfidence game in China is just that, and their faith in the all mighty government, while shaken some with the recent stock market crash, remains quite strong.

The latest gambling venture in China is bonds.  The chase for yields is strong.  Then they do a repo game where they get 10x leverage/increased risk.  The Chinese sure love to gamble but aren't very good at it.

Anyway, the DB and CS are as you say the cracks in the armor.  DB stock immediately dropped 10% on the news then went back to not only near break even, but up on the day.  Up again today.

Bad is in fact the new good.  Flat is the new normal.  Negative growth is still growth. 

I think this week we saw a worldwide QE assault by all the central bankers.  They are meeting together.  Christine LaGarde encouraged cooperation which in central bank speak means collusion for their mutual profit.  They made some serious bank with the funny money invested in stocks that should have gone down on the employment report and other bad news, but of course bad is the new good.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22356367 - 10/09/15 08:41 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Bad is in fact the new good.  Flat is the new normal.  Negative growth is still growth.




Yeah, it's a perverse system. No one knows what the true price of a given asset would be without central bank intervention. I think that works for awhile .. then the markets begin to factor in that risk. I mean you can't trust the GDP numbers, unemployment, etc.

How the hell do you rationally invest in such a climate??

At some point, ONE individual gets nervous.. then it's hundreds.. thousands.. then millions. And then the bond market starts to go .. Because that is where the bubble is!

It's not stocks this Time!!
Quote:


The CONfidence game in China is just that, and their faith in the all mighty government, while shaken some with the recent stock market crash, remains quite strong.




People are always fighting the Last War. It's not a bubble in stocks. This time, it's in bonds. Look at China!



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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22362207 - 10/11/15 08:55 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

When the bond market finally goes down the tubes it's going to be the bubble of all time bursting everywhere.  Pension funds, for example, just imagine the horror.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22370576 - 10/12/15 08:42 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

It's really hard to overstate the devastation coming our way. This is unprecedented. We've had a 35-year bull market in bonds. Very few people have operated in any other environment. And few now living remember the Great Depression, which I think will look like a picnic compared to this one.

When it goes, it will also be worldwide. Some countries will get hit harder than others of course.

And we need to realize that there will be upheaval politically as well. Hitler, Stalin, and Mao all came to power within a few years of each other around the time of the Great Depression. Then we got World War II.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22371076 - 10/12/15 10:06 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I was just reading an article in the Economist this week about the rising bond spread between government/aaa bonds and lower grade bonds.  Apparently that divergence is an indicator of looming recession.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22372423 - 10/13/15 09:47 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Obumble is hoping the recession will hit in the next presidents term so he can dodge responsibility. It will begin well before that, imo. I wonder if they will blame bush for that too? The media plays cheerleader telling us things are super peachy but any fool can see things are not that great. Compared to later this may be called the end of the golden age so maybe we should appreciate what we still have before its gone.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22376651 - 10/14/15 12:28 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Some recent economic news and headlines:


* The IMF is warning that a new financial crisis is brewing.

* Goldman Sachs: The Third Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Upon Us.

* UBS' 17 year-old Managed High Yield Plus Bond Fund to be liquidated.

* Credit downgrades are now at the highest levels since the peak of the financial crisis in 2009.

* One third of global GDP is already in a recession.

* Volkswagen -- the largest employer in the largest economy in Europe -- had their debt downgraded, making it harder to obtain financing. Further downgrading is expected. And they may be on the hook for $50 billion in losses from the diesel gate scandal.

* Global trade declined 8.4 percent from this time last year.

* China's imports collapsed 20.4 percent in September from this time last year! A sign that something is really, really wrong there. That is HUGE. They are the second largest economy in the world!

I can't tell you how many times the past two weeks I've read bad economic data from different sources, all containing the same phrase: "First time since Lehman."


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/14/15 12:54 AM)


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22377609 - 10/14/15 09:34 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)




Yup, better get ready.

I take it that other than financially prepared you have a months worth of food & drink, first aid stuff and that shit?

I do.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Asante]
    #22377807 - 10/14/15 10:24 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

On economics you tend to be right. On everything else, well.....

The sheep think all is fine, the cheerleaders in the media are tirelessly cranking out feel good stories. If one indicator out of 80 is weakly positive and the rest are weakly bad to very bad, you know which one will be the lead story.

I see people in this forum including mods sneering at the "gloom and doom" predictors saying they have been saying the same thing for 10 years or whatever. Things have been very bad for about 6 or 7 years, coincidentally the amount of time your hero obumble has been on the job mismanaging everything.

Debt is unpayable so the only possible outcomes are printing up fake money to plug the gap, renouncing the debt, or some other scheme involving a little of both

Only an idiot would believe the fed is or was going to raise interest rates. That would be the final blow and everything goes to hell after that. Yet yellin keeps making those balony speeches about maybe raising rates soon and fools keep believing it.

I'm sticking with my prediction of no raises in interst rates and that the collapse will be gradual rather than shockingly sudden. I've changed my outlook on that last part. The stock market may have sudden collapses with the usual upward spike after each one but the general situation will simply grind lower and lower. The dems will try to blame it on bush or on the next president.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22378433 - 10/14/15 12:46 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Wal-Mart.  Oops.  Funny how they blame the poor worker who got the raise from $9 an hour to $10 an hour working part time to avoid getting benefits.  How dare that worker try to live so luxuriously.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22378797 - 10/14/15 02:09 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Walmart is putting out what the public wants. It wants cheap crappy Chinese junk at rock bottom prices. Ask the public if they want to pay more so the workers can live more luxuriously and the answer is no if they have to pay for it but yes if someone else pays for it.

People are free to buy from Nordstrom's, saks, and other high end retailers that pay people more. but few do and almost none of the poor and lower middle class do. The do gooders who want higher wages without more productivity are killing both the poor and business in general.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22379983 - 10/14/15 06:00 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

The sheep think all is fine, the cheerleaders in the media are tirelessly cranking out feel good stories. If one indicator out of 80 is weakly positive and the rest are weakly bad to very bad, you know which one will be the lead story.




Wal-Mart's profits are tanking. Their stock got slammed - 10% today. And what was the headline on Marketwatch?

Wal-Mart to Buyback $20 Billion of Stock :cheer:


More economic news:


* Industrial production fell five months straight in the first half of 2015. This has never happened outside of a recession.

* Merchant Wholesalers’ Sales are in recession territory.

* The Empire Manufacturing Survey is in recession territory.

* All four of the Fed’s September Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings (Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, and Kansas City) came in at readings of sub-zero. This usually happens when you are already 4-5 months into a recession.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-14/us-back-recession-interest-rates-already-zero


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22380051 - 10/14/15 06:18 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

Bad is in fact the new good.  Flat is the new normal.  Negative growth is still growth.




Yeah, it's a perverse system. No one knows what the true price of a given asset would be without central bank intervention. I think that works for awhile .. then the markets begin to factor in that risk. I mean you can't trust the GDP numbers, unemployment, etc.

How the hell do you rationally invest in such a climate??

At some point, ONE individual gets nervous.. then it's hundreds.. thousands.. then millions. And then the bond market starts to go .. Because that is where the bubble is!






"And then the bond market starts to go"

Which bond market?  I think the US 10 year traded below 2% today.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22380231 - 10/14/15 06:57 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

so.

i'm calling for FY16Q3 as being the official marking as teh beginning of the recession (two quarters negative GDP growth)


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22380241 - 10/14/15 07:03 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

"And then the bond market starts to go"

Which bond market?  I think the US 10 year traded below 2% today.




I talked about that earlier but just to recap for anyone who missed it, I would expect Europe to start going first. The junk bond market is already distressed with rising default rates -- another sign of a recession. The U.S. is fine for now IMO. In fact, I have investments in U.S. bond funds and ETFs. I'm thinking that as Europe declines, a lot of that capital will shift to the relative safety of the U.S.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22380283 - 10/14/15 07:13 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

T-bill always the 'safe haven'


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22380336 - 10/14/15 07:22 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

"And then the bond market starts to go"

Which bond market?  I think the US 10 year traded below 2% today.




I talked about that earlier but just to recap for anyone who missed it, I would expect Europe to start going first. The junk bond market is already distressed with rising default rates -- another sign of a recession. The U.S. is fine for now IMO. In fact, I have investments in U.S. bond funds and ETFs. I'm thinking that as Europe declines, a lot of that capital will shift to the relative safety of the U.S.




I agree that the junk market is mispriced, with that being said, we have been here before.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22386823 - 10/16/15 02:28 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

India's Exports/Imports Collapse By 25%




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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22387392 - 10/16/15 08:16 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

ive been enjoying zerohedge.com too


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: memes]
    #22387478 - 10/16/15 08:47 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
T-bill always the 'safe haven'




What will bond and stock prices do if the Fed announces NIRP?  QE4? 

The ongoing melt up in prices of such garbage stock as AMZN for example with their magic never make money formula or FB with their steal your information formula or the biotech stocks that steal your money to feed you toxic crap formula to cover up losses in real world stocks like WMT can not be sustained.  Then you have all this financial engineering of companies letting thieves like GS do buy backs with yet more debt, and this is somehow "good for shareholders". 

Borrowing money to buy more shares, how's that working for MON?  How's that working for WMT?  Oh, not that well, better ramp up the buy backs!

Too much debt?  Better borrow more to cover it in case someone notices every bank, every country, and every city is belly up already.

Lottery winner in IL wants to get paid?  Sorry, when we figure out our budget maybe we can cut you a check.

It's literally getting to be like the end of the original Dumb And Dumber where he opens up the briefcase and the money is all there in the form of IOUs...



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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: memes]
    #22388385 - 10/16/15 01:33 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
ive been enjoying zerohedge.com too




Great site. I visit almost every day.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22388990 - 10/16/15 03:43 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

memes said:
ive been enjoying zerohedge.com too




Great site. I visit almost every day.




They are doing what everyone here is doing for years/decades. Hunting every single piece of information to try to desperately reassure themselves that the market is gonna crash. So far they have been 100% wrong (just like you).

But that doesn't matter. You get to remain in denial and can never be proved wrong all the while you search high and low for little clues and pieces of irrelevant information to use circular reasoning to try to reassure yourself that the position that you have already pre-determined to be true is true ("did you notice India's exports/imports are down year over year - the world market is gonna tank any day now!!").

I can do the exact same thing to build a persuasive case that the economy has bottomed and is going to skyrocket by searching for positive economic news.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22389217 - 10/16/15 04:25 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Maybe you are the one in denial. :lol:

Time will tell ..


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22389274 - 10/16/15 04:39 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Confucian does have a valid point.  It's as biased a site as fox news or huffpo or drudge.  Everything's looked at through the same lense.  And yet, at the same time, the info i see on zerohedge is oft ending up on cnbc's main page 18-36hr later


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22389288 - 10/16/15 04:42 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

If the world isn't in recession by mid 2016, i'll eat my hat. Most likely it will be in depression by then but they will be trying to decide if its in recession or not. We are still in a recession here, never really got out of it. Cooking the books and juggling figures does not make things better.

Facts are facts, they do not have bias, humans have bias.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: memes]
    #22389345 - 10/16/15 04:53 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Every one and every site has a POV. Sure, I like zerohedge. But it's only one of many sites I visit. Just like I watch all news networks to get as balanced of a view as possible. Most people stick to only the source that tells them what they want to hear. I don't want an economic depression! A lot of people will get hurt. I just look at the data and what it tells me. What it has indicated in the past. Doesn't mean it's 100 percent. But it's getting pretty damn close.

One thing I like about ZH is that, while not perfect, they are not cheerleaders for the markets. :cheer:


Many media outlets cheer-led investors right over the cliff in '08. They have no predictive power. I pay attention to sources that are on the cutting edge and have proven themselves in the past. Then I return to them.

If someone has some rosy stats to prove me wrong, feel free to post them. Or just play attack the messenger.

There's alway that.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/16/15 05:04 PM)


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22389455 - 10/16/15 05:19 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
If someone has some rosy stats to prove me wrong, feel free to post them. Or just play attack the messenger.

There's alway that.




Some Good News About the Global Economy

The IMF garnered headlines last week for lowering their world economic growth outlook. What was less discussed, but potentially more important for investors, was that they maintained their outlook for stronger growth in 2016. They’re not alone. In fact, most forecasters, including the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the consensus of economists’ forecasts tracked by Bloomberg, foresee a stronger world economy in 2016 than in 2015 or 2014.

In particular, the IMF forecasts:

• The euro zone will accelerate slightly (to 1.6%) from the pace in 2015 which was already the fastest growth since 2010.

• Economic growth in the United States will improve slightly (to 2.8%), making for the fastest annual pace of growth since 2005.

• Japan’s weak economy will reaccelerate by about half of a percentage point (to 1.0%) from 2015 in 2016.

• Emerging market economies are also expected to grow about a half of a percentage point faster in 2016 (to 4.5%).

• The biggest downgrades to the IMF growth outlook were in commodity-driven developed and emerging economies in recession: Brazil, Russia, and Canada. Of these, only Canada’s economy is expected to grow in 2016.

In addition, the IMF sees an increase in global inflation from 0.3% in 2015 to 1.2% in 2016, potentially marking a big step back from the risk of deflation


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22389502 - 10/16/15 05:27 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap? They were predicting a few years ago that the us economy would be booming by now. China is stumbling, Europe is doing poorly but there is no shortage of cheerleading from the usual suspects.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22389533 - 10/16/15 05:33 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Confucian said:
Quote:

zorbman said:
If someone has some rosy stats to prove me wrong, feel free to post them. Or just play attack the messenger.

There's alway that.




Some Good News About the Global Economy

The IMF garnered headlines last week for lowering their world economic growth outlook. What was less discussed, but potentially more important for investors, was that they maintained their outlook for stronger growth in 2016. They’re not alone. In fact, most forecasters, including the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the consensus of economists’ forecasts tracked by Bloomberg, foresee a stronger world economy in 2016 than in 2015 or 2014.

In particular, the IMF forecasts:

• The euro zone will accelerate slightly (to 1.6%) from the pace in 2015 which was already the fastest growth since 2010.

• Economic growth in the United States will improve slightly (to 2.8%), making for the fastest annual pace of growth since 2005.

• Japan’s weak economy will reaccelerate by about half of a percentage point (to 1.0%) from 2015 in 2016.

• Emerging market economies are also expected to grow about a half of a percentage point faster in 2016 (to 4.5%).

• The biggest downgrades to the IMF growth outlook were in commodity-driven developed and emerging economies in recession: Brazil, Russia, and Canada. Of these, only Canada’s economy is expected to grow in 2016.

In addition, the IMF sees an increase in global inflation from 0.3% in 2015 to 1.2% in 2016, potentially marking a big step back from the risk of deflation




I agree that ZH has lost a lot of credibility the past 4 years, they get way too excited about potential bad news.

The IMF is really no better, does anyone really think emerging market economies are going to grow 4.5% next year?  Not a chance in hell.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22390216 - 10/16/15 07:59 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I see claims of recession in a thread about a depression.  How do I know which one we are in when its mid 2016?


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22391452 - 10/16/15 11:59 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap?




Probably some kind of synthetic drug like QE4  :wink:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/17/15 12:11 AM)


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22407205 - 10/20/15 04:46 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

Stonehenge said:
I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap?




Probably some kind of synthetic drug like QE4  :wink:




They were huffing NIRP.


--------------------
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22407505 - 10/20/15 07:12 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

Stonehenge said:
I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap?




Probably some kind of synthetic drug like QE4  :wink:




They were huffing NIRP.




:lol:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22417185 - 10/22/15 08:19 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Caterpillar, Inc. - The World's Leading Industrial Bellwether:


* Revenues collapse by 19 percent

* Firing 10,000 employees

* 34 consecutive months of declining revenues and 11 consecutive months of double digit sales declines



--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/22/15 08:45 AM)


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Offlineqman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22417286 - 10/22/15 09:04 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

The crazy thing is we are seeing many global corporations putting out weak revenue and profit reports, yet the stock market is still moving higher.

I guess the market has already priced this in and is forecasting a major rebound for 2016, time will tell. 

As we know, stocks can rally on weak earnings, but will the rebound happen next year?


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22420330 - 10/22/15 09:08 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

The Bill Hicks economic theory; shows us, the introduction of markets is a result of free trade. In the first place, their markets, purpose is the growth that central economic sites reap.


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22421566 - 10/23/15 06:06 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
The crazy thing is we are seeing many global corporations putting out weak revenue and profit reports, yet the stock market is still moving higher.

I guess the market has already priced this in and is forecasting a major rebound for 2016, time will tell. 

As we know, stocks can rally on weak earnings, but will the rebound happen next year?




Yeah, the stock market can be seemingly crazy and counter-intuitive as it relates to earnings and even the overall economy. I've been forced to rethink my own assumptions over time about how it should behave given A, B or C.

I mean there have been monster rallies like this one from 1932-1937 in the midst of the worst years of The Great Depression:



A lot of the seemingly weird behavior is from either central bank intervention or the expectation of it. Bad news is perversely good news because more intervention is expected. Then you have stock buybacks.

Also, I think a lot of what drives it is capital flows. Obviously, the big institutional money is flowing out of commodities right now. But it needs a market of sufficient size to accommodate these vast sums of money. Only two other markets meet that criteria: the bond market and the stock market. So capital flows to perceived safety, despite any underlying fundamentals. That's why I think there will be a surprise monster stock market rally in the U.S. over the next couple of years as the air gets let out of the European balloon, it has to go somewhere. If you only look at fundamentals or expectations, you can get lost in the sauce.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22424314 - 10/23/15 07:09 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

The Central Banks of the world have apparently agreed to bid up stocks even further with the ECB jawboning leading the way into December and the Fed on hold forever.  China is doing their part, and Japan is always ready to further screw their savers and investors with more QE.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (10/23/15 07:42 PM)


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22424842 - 10/23/15 09:15 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

FCX's Q3 earnings report was a huge miss and dumped it.  I was hopeful given how bearish the market is for oil/copper that they would have overestimated the loss.  Turned out to be quite the opposite.  I'm going to keep my cash sidelined for now to see how Q4 develops.  With tons of earnings misses across the board, the market does not skip a step.  The reasonable conclusion would be that people are optimistic about 2016 and that is priced in and that "the worst is over."  Strange that the Fed has gone silent on a possible rate increase in December.  I continue to think over the long term, materials and energy will see a net positive but it's too early to see how things will turn in the short term.  Recession seems possible.  See the below article posted today by the Washington Post.  If you've been watching volume, you've probably noticed that it has been significantly reduced for this recent upturn in the markets also suggesting that it is not sustainable at least for the short term.

So far, since getting into this little game:

Bought RIG at 12.66.  Sold at 14.85
Bought FCX at 11.38.  Sold at 12.3775.

Not terrible :justdontknow:

Quote:

Confronted with disappointing data from around the world, economists are whispering a word that hasn’t seemed like a real possibility in years: recession.

It starts with the slowdown in China, which is already straining the global recovery. The world’s second-largest economy has lost its appetite for the raw materials that fueled its industrial boom, leaving the smaller countries that supplied it with resources stumbling in its wake. Slower growth abroad translates into weaker foreign currencies and a stronger U.S. dollar, which makes American goods harder to sell in the global marketplace.

A growing chorus of prominent economists and analysts are arguing those dynamics could tip the world -- and the United States along with it -- into recession within the next two years. The fear is showing up in the recent wild swings in financial markets, rare outside of broader economic downturns. The pace of U.S. job growth has slowed substantially compared to last year. And though the economic expansion has never quite reached many workers, it has actually lasted longer than the post-war average.

“The global economy is uncomfortably close to the edge,” said David Stockton, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.


In addition, the final months of the year are a potential minefield for the U.S. recovery: Congress must raise the nation’s borrowing limit before Nov. 3 to avert a catastrophic default. Lawmakers also need to approve the budget for the federal government or face a confidence-sapping shutdown. A wrong move by the Fed as it weighs whether to raise interest rates this year could stymie the economy’s momentum.

Most analysts still believe the most likely scenario is that the country continues to chug along: Congress reaches an eleventh-hour compromise, the nation’s central bank maintains its balancing act, and the U.S. recovery is weighed down but not derailed by international turmoil. Currently, estimates of economic growth are around a sluggish 1 percent annual rate, and though expectations for next year have been repeatedly lowered, they are still positive.

But economists say that those forecasts, which are by nature uncertain, are particularly murky now. China this week reported its economy grew at a 6.9 percent annual rate over the past three months. That’s far faster than U.S. performance, but still the slowest pace since 2009 and shy of the government’s target of 7 percent.

[This is where China's future will be decided]

Many analysts believe the official Chinese numbers are too rosy. In the country’s crowded cities, high-rise apartment buildings sit vacant and factories lay idle after saturating the global marketplace with cheap goods. Outside economists believe the country’s growth rate may be as low as 3 percent, and that uncertainty makes forecasting the ripple effects even more precarious.

China accounts for only a tiny sliver of U.S. exports, but its influence is far wider. The slowdown in China is pushing down oil prices just as America’s production was peaking.

Meanwhile, countries such as Brazil and Australia that once boomed by exporting raw materials to China are now suffering a reversal of fortune as commodity prices plunge. As growth slows, their currencies are weakening against the dollar -- which, in turn, makes U.S. exports more expensive and drags down on the recovery.

That complicated web means there’s plenty of room for a surprise — a bigger contraction in China, a sharper rise in the dollar, a more dramatic slowdown in hiring at home — that could reverse the progress the U.S. recovery has made.

“Economics isn’t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in mid-air,” wrote Willem Buiter, chief global economist at Citigroup, who assigned a 55 percent chance of a moderate to severe global contraction next year.

Since World War II, recessions have occurred an average of every five years. The current expansion is more than six years old, beginning in July 2009. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, but an official designation is often not made until long after the decline has already begun.


The Great Recession started in December 2007 but was not officially diagnosed until a year later -- after the Dow Jones Industrial average had already fallen roughly 40 percent and more than 3.5 million workers had lost their jobs.

A common refrain in economics is that expansions do not die of old age. Rather they are victims of policy decisions, such as the Fed interest rate hikes in the early 1980s to tame double-digit inflation, or of unexpected shocks, such as the implosion of the subprime mortgage industry.

But the spring of 2001 may be a more useful comparison. The country faced weak growth abroad and the fallout of the dot-com bubble, but only 15 percent of economists surveyed that summer believed a downturn had begun, according to Blue Chip forecasts.

Yet the nation was in the midst of a recession that lasted nine months. The downturn was relatively shallow, and in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, then-President George W. Bush quickly proposed a stimulus package that delivered tax rebates to every household.

“A recession is inevitable in the fullness of time. The question is when is one likely to occur?” said Jason Thomas, director of research at The Carlyle Group, a financial services and private equity firm.

Thomas said he doesn’t believe one is imminent. But the more important question, he said, is how damaging it would be if it occurred. Most economists, including Thomas, believe the next recession will likely be mild. The problem is that the nation’s top policymakers may have less power to combat it.

If anything, analysts worry that it will be officials in Washington who inadvertently send the economy over the edge. Bitterly divided lawmakers have no clear plan for averting a catastrophic default on the nation’s debt obligations next month or a shutdown of the federal government in December. The hurdle for any stimulus may be insurmountable.

The other backstop during the financial crisis was the Fed. The nation’s central bank slashed its key interest rate to zero in December 2008 and has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy. Seven years later, rates are still at zero and the Fed has maintained a $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

In other words, most of the central bank’s arsenal is already deployed.

In an interview, former Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said if another recession were to strike, the central bank could resume pumping money into the economy, promise to keep interest rates at zero even longer or even turn them negative -- essentially doubling down on the experimental policies from which officials have been trying to extricate the economy.

“They’re not on the whole a super attractive set of options,” Bernanke said. “So you would hope first that you avoid that situation.”

[Ben Bernanke tells us why he was right about the economy]

But for many Americans, the difference between recovery and recession is blurry at best. The nation’s labor force has shrunk to the lowest level since the 1970s, partly because many people have given up looking for work. Those working part-time even though they would prefer full-time jobs remain well above the pre-recession level.

Perhaps most importantly, wage growth has remained stuck at about 2 percent despite a drop in the unemployment rate and a pickup in hiring.

Georgia resident Dawn O’Neal said she is making less now than she did 15 years ago when she started her career in early childhood education. At 48, she earns $8.50 an hour and believes the minimum wage should be raised to $15. At the very least, she said, she shouldn’t be moving backward.

“People who work every day, people who work 40 hours a week need to get paid what they deserve,” O’Neal said. “They shouldn’t have to worry about struggling or surviving.”




http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/10/23/economists-are-starting-to-sound-alarm-about-the-risk-of-a-new-u-s-recession/


--------------------


"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22426396 - 10/24/15 09:42 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Do yourself a favor, read this book ASAP!  It's a long read, but a vital one to starting to understand that The Fed is in the long run truly not your friend.  Or just watch this video for now.



--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22438611 - 10/27/15 01:23 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Wouldn't it be amazing if we had, you know.. actual free markets? I guess it's just in man's nature to try to constantly meddle and manipulate market forces/liquidity.

And the sheer arrogance of these people is incredible! Fed chairman sitting before Congress and treated like a priest. You can sit there and build dams and levies, but eventually, that damn river is going to reach the sea! It's only a matter of How and How long?

Pitiful human beings are powerless to alter the primal Forces of Nature in the long run. They just make it worse.

Markets ARE Nature.

And Nature always bats last ..




--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/27/15 01:54 AM)


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22439557 - 10/27/15 10:13 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

The Power Of The Fed has never been greater.  We are heading into truly absurd times, I can't really imagine things will end well on this one.  The notion that you can actually charge someone for holding your "hard earned money" at the bank is absurd.  Of course, given their fees and interest, and the fact that money is created out of thin air, and it's absurd from the get go.  But to have a negative interest rate, we are getting into uncharted waters.

In Denmark, their "interest rate" (amount of annual theft) is currently -0.75%.  This has resulted in a huge real estate bubble with houses going up 60% in three years as people are "rewarded" for borrowing money (until prices drop back 60% and the banks foreclose).

Then, looking at oil and seeing the drop makes me want to short stocks, but until "The Fed" utters their utterances tomorrow, why bother?  Of course Apple with it's pumped up lease driven phone upgrade cycle and massive stock buybacks never goes down, even with China.  The stock will likely soar after their funny money earnings are reported after the bell tonight.

At least once we "get attacked" by China/Russia then there will be an excuse for the banking holidays and serious thievery of funds following the most massive debt default and war in global history.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22440174 - 10/27/15 01:12 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

We are heading into truly absurd times, I can't really imagine things will end well on this one.




Things didnt get better, they got worse but they put a spin on it to make it look OK.

Their solution to paint themselves in a corner is to paint faster.

Might as well prepare for the main event.





Babylon's falling :rastafari:


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Asante]
    #22441070 - 10/27/15 05:09 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
Quote:

We are heading into truly absurd times, I can't really imagine things will end well on this one.




Things didnt get better, they got worse but they put a spin on it to make it look OK.

Their solution to paint themselves in a corner is to paint faster.

Might as well prepare for the main event.





Babylon's falling :rastafari:




Specifically, the Petrodollar is what's being "killed" based on a number of factors, oversupply of oil and weak demand being just a part of it.  The Euro certainly isn't in any great shakes, that's for sure.  The German economy is really in the shitter, how those assclowns can drive up their stocks in the face of the VW scandal and Deutsche Bank literally at the apex of the SHTF derivatives is beyond me.  You know how desparate they are when oil is DOWN TO 2008 crisis levels and "they" haven't even officially announced the Recession!


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22441442 - 10/27/15 06:37 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Its all juggling of the books same as we do to make unemployment look low and inflation look low. The band played on even after the titanic hit an iceberg. After all, it was unsinkable, just like the usa.

Its hard to believe the crash hasn't happened yet. But the fundamentals keep getting worse not better so its just a matter of time. It will come as a big shock and surprise to most people.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22442300 - 10/27/15 09:28 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

The Power Of The Fed has never been greater.  We are heading into truly absurd times




When the Fed itself goes bankrupt, that will be an amazing "Oh Shit" moment!


Another Recession/Depression Watch Update:

In U.S. dollar terms, the world is already in a recession:



--------------------
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22443446 - 10/28/15 06:08 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

The Power Of The Fed has never been greater.  We are heading into truly absurd times




When the Fed itself goes bankrupt, that will be an amazing "Oh Shit" moment!


Another Recession/Depression Watch Update:

In U.S. dollar terms, the world is already in a recession:






The Fed isn't going bankrupt.  Remember, "they" are "the ones" who are able to print funny money and "we the people" pay them interest through real taxes and inflation taxes.  Ultimately, "we the people" pay when "our country" (the corporation known as "the United States") defaults on the massive debts that "they" created in our straw men all capitalized letter names.


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22449985 - 10/29/15 04:51 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

U.S. GDP in Q3 fell to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent versus 3.9 percent the previous quarter.

Of course, the MSM is trying to put a positive spin on the news.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-gdp-lands-with-thud-just-15-growth-2015-10-29


--------------------
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22452813 - 10/30/15 09:18 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
U.S. GDP in Q3 fell to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent versus 3.9 percent the previous quarter.

Of course, the MSM is trying to put a positive spin on the news.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-gdp-lands-with-thud-just-15-growth-2015-10-29




The GDP "numbers" are so manipulated, massaged, and downright lies at this point you have to believe it's truly more like negative 1.5 percent.

I think this Obamacare disaster has been one of and will continue to be one of the final nails in our collective coffins.  Talk about a cartel screw job by the insurance companies/gov.

The student debt bubble is another huge issue not really being considered as that money/debt is completely gov/Fed controlled and created and is going to be a burden to those students once the alcohol haze wears off.

The car loan and auto industry in general has been a supposed bright spot, but it's a huge overcapacity overlending disaster in the making. 

Then there's the shale oil industry debt issue that supposedly is good for Amerikkka because it created jobs while poisoning our infrastructure and literally creating earthquakes as well as poisoning wells oh well it's business as usual for big oil.  But, in this case robbing peter to pay paul or JPM as the case may be is just another debt disaster in the making.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22452982 - 10/30/15 10:16 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

The GDP "numbers" are so manipulated, massaged, and downright lies at this point you have to believe it's truly more like negative 1.5 percent.





I hesitated to post the GDP stats for that very reason. I guess I trust them the "less least" than some of the other notoriously cooked numbers like unemployment. I'd post John Williams' of Shadowstats Q3 GDP numbers but I don't think they're out yet.

You are absolutely right about student loans and particularly auto loans being an underreported disaster waiting to happen. It just shows you the overarching nature of the debt bubble we're in and how far-reaching and devastating it will be when it pops.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22453757 - 10/30/15 02:10 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

The "sub-prime" auto loans are apparently being packaged very much like the sub prime mortgage loans, in bundles of crap!

To Stoney - And The Band Played On



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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22467852 - 11/02/15 06:29 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

In the United States:

"Industrial production declined in the first five months of 2015. This has ALWAYS coincided with a recession."

"All four September PMIs recorded sub-zero readings, which only occurs when the US economy is already five to six months into a recession."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/worlds-three-largest-economies-are-recession

Quote:

To Stoney - And The Band Played On




Ah. Good ole' psychedelic era Temps! Let's not forget the Love and Rockets version:



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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22469544 - 11/03/15 04:55 AM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Some talking head yesterday said "well, maybe when we go into a recession in a couple of years"...

Maybe it will be a good thing when the power goes out, if you can stay away from the psycho entitled people who didn't prepare because all was well.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22470207 - 11/03/15 09:40 AM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Today's idiot "bad is good" thought goes to Reed Hastings, CEO of Netflix, who proclaimed that "we are a billion dollars a year of cash flow negative, yet have a market capitalization of 50 billion dollars.  If that's not evidence of confidence in our business, I don't know what is" or words to that effect.  Then goes on to describe his recently enacted "unlimited vacation" policy and very recently enacted "unlimited child rearing period for both sexes after birth".

"Yeah, sorry Reed, I know I said this was the year for me to stop raising Timmy, after all he is 13 now.  Maybe I can come in and talk with you about it next year after I get back from Tibet." - A Happy Netflix employee of the future


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22486891 - 11/06/15 04:02 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

The Baltic Dry Index Crashes To Its Lowest November Level In History



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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22487123 - 11/06/15 04:55 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
The Baltic Dry Index Crashes To Its Lowest November Level In History






That's an interesting chart, look how high the numbers were in 2006 and 2007 compared to 2013 and 2014. 

The surplus of oil in the world is at 80 year highs. 

The disconnect of the big internationals at all time highs given the strength in the dollar and weakness in the economy has just about reached the greatest fool point.

The good job report news almost being bad news, but mostly just good news for the banks today as now magically the conclusion is that the Fed is going to raise in September based on such a strong US economy.  Seems we have the world buffaloed with our completely bogus unemployment numbers more than even China with their inflated GDP numbers.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22487202 - 11/06/15 05:10 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

That's an interesting chart, look how high the numbers were in 2006 and 2007 compared to 2013 and 2014. 




The world economy is expanding. :yesnod:


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Offlineqman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22487535 - 11/06/15 06:08 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

That's an interesting chart, look how high the numbers were in 2006 and 2007 compared to 2013 and 2014. 




The world economy is expanding. :yesnod:




But wouldn't it be safe to assume that the carriers expanded their fleets during the surge in prices and therefore brought the rates to ship back down again?  It's basically overcapacity at work as the global economy slows down.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22488894 - 11/06/15 11:48 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

It's basically overcapacity at work as the global economy slows down.




Yep. She's slowing down.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22489405 - 11/07/15 07:21 AM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

It's basically overcapacity at work as the global economy slows down.




Yep. She's slowing down.




I wonder if China is going to go "all in" with their psychotic growth plans of more vacant cities?  Laying off and not paying hundreds of thousands of workers may not end well for Mr. Xi.  He hinted at wanting to get back to 10-15% "growth" so we may see QE from them beyond even this last massive debt increase from 2008.  Europe seems ready as ever, and if the dollar keeps rising Aunt Janet can delay this now "foregone conclusion" of a rate increase until 2016.  After all, 55 times they said they would raise, and 55 times they lied...


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