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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Caterpillar, Inc. - The World's Leading Industrial Bellwether:
* Revenues collapse by 19 percent
* Firing 10,000 employees
* 34 consecutive months of declining revenues and 11 consecutive months of double digit sales declines
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
Edited by zorbman (10/22/15 08:45 AM)
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
#22417286 - 10/22/15 09:04 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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The crazy thing is we are seeing many global corporations putting out weak revenue and profit reports, yet the stock market is still moving higher.
I guess the market has already priced this in and is forecasting a major rebound for 2016, time will tell.
As we know, stocks can rally on weak earnings, but will the rebound happen next year?
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
Last seen: 2 years, 4 months
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
#22420330 - 10/22/15 09:08 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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The Bill Hicks economic theory; shows us, the introduction of markets is a result of free trade. In the first place, their markets, purpose is the growth that central economic sites reap.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
#22421566 - 10/23/15 06:06 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
qman said: The crazy thing is we are seeing many global corporations putting out weak revenue and profit reports, yet the stock market is still moving higher.
I guess the market has already priced this in and is forecasting a major rebound for 2016, time will tell.
As we know, stocks can rally on weak earnings, but will the rebound happen next year?
Yeah, the stock market can be seemingly crazy and counter-intuitive as it relates to earnings and even the overall economy. I've been forced to rethink my own assumptions over time about how it should behave given A, B or C.
I mean there have been monster rallies like this one from 1932-1937 in the midst of the worst years of The Great Depression:

A lot of the seemingly weird behavior is from either central bank intervention or the expectation of it. Bad news is perversely good news because more intervention is expected. Then you have stock buybacks.
Also, I think a lot of what drives it is capital flows. Obviously, the big institutional money is flowing out of commodities right now. But it needs a market of sufficient size to accommodate these vast sums of money. Only two other markets meet that criteria: the bond market and the stock market. So capital flows to perceived safety, despite any underlying fundamentals. That's why I think there will be a surprise monster stock market rally in the U.S. over the next couple of years as the air gets let out of the European balloon, it has to go somewhere. If you only look at fundamentals or expectations, you can get lost in the sauce.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
#22424314 - 10/23/15 07:09 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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The Central Banks of the world have apparently agreed to bid up stocks even further with the ECB jawboning leading the way into December and the Fed on hold forever. China is doing their part, and Japan is always ready to further screw their savers and investors with more QE.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
Edited by LunarEclipse (10/23/15 07:42 PM)
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
Last seen: 7 months, 5 days
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FCX's Q3 earnings report was a huge miss and dumped it. I was hopeful given how bearish the market is for oil/copper that they would have overestimated the loss. Turned out to be quite the opposite. I'm going to keep my cash sidelined for now to see how Q4 develops. With tons of earnings misses across the board, the market does not skip a step. The reasonable conclusion would be that people are optimistic about 2016 and that is priced in and that "the worst is over." Strange that the Fed has gone silent on a possible rate increase in December. I continue to think over the long term, materials and energy will see a net positive but it's too early to see how things will turn in the short term. Recession seems possible. See the below article posted today by the Washington Post. If you've been watching volume, you've probably noticed that it has been significantly reduced for this recent upturn in the markets also suggesting that it is not sustainable at least for the short term.
So far, since getting into this little game:
Bought RIG at 12.66. Sold at 14.85 Bought FCX at 11.38. Sold at 12.3775.
Not terrible 
Quote:
Confronted with disappointing data from around the world, economists are whispering a word that hasn’t seemed like a real possibility in years: recession.
It starts with the slowdown in China, which is already straining the global recovery. The world’s second-largest economy has lost its appetite for the raw materials that fueled its industrial boom, leaving the smaller countries that supplied it with resources stumbling in its wake. Slower growth abroad translates into weaker foreign currencies and a stronger U.S. dollar, which makes American goods harder to sell in the global marketplace.
A growing chorus of prominent economists and analysts are arguing those dynamics could tip the world -- and the United States along with it -- into recession within the next two years. The fear is showing up in the recent wild swings in financial markets, rare outside of broader economic downturns. The pace of U.S. job growth has slowed substantially compared to last year. And though the economic expansion has never quite reached many workers, it has actually lasted longer than the post-war average.
“The global economy is uncomfortably close to the edge,” said David Stockton, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
In addition, the final months of the year are a potential minefield for the U.S. recovery: Congress must raise the nation’s borrowing limit before Nov. 3 to avert a catastrophic default. Lawmakers also need to approve the budget for the federal government or face a confidence-sapping shutdown. A wrong move by the Fed as it weighs whether to raise interest rates this year could stymie the economy’s momentum.
Most analysts still believe the most likely scenario is that the country continues to chug along: Congress reaches an eleventh-hour compromise, the nation’s central bank maintains its balancing act, and the U.S. recovery is weighed down but not derailed by international turmoil. Currently, estimates of economic growth are around a sluggish 1 percent annual rate, and though expectations for next year have been repeatedly lowered, they are still positive.
But economists say that those forecasts, which are by nature uncertain, are particularly murky now. China this week reported its economy grew at a 6.9 percent annual rate over the past three months. That’s far faster than U.S. performance, but still the slowest pace since 2009 and shy of the government’s target of 7 percent.
[This is where China's future will be decided]
Many analysts believe the official Chinese numbers are too rosy. In the country’s crowded cities, high-rise apartment buildings sit vacant and factories lay idle after saturating the global marketplace with cheap goods. Outside economists believe the country’s growth rate may be as low as 3 percent, and that uncertainty makes forecasting the ripple effects even more precarious.
China accounts for only a tiny sliver of U.S. exports, but its influence is far wider. The slowdown in China is pushing down oil prices just as America’s production was peaking.
Meanwhile, countries such as Brazil and Australia that once boomed by exporting raw materials to China are now suffering a reversal of fortune as commodity prices plunge. As growth slows, their currencies are weakening against the dollar -- which, in turn, makes U.S. exports more expensive and drags down on the recovery.
That complicated web means there’s plenty of room for a surprise — a bigger contraction in China, a sharper rise in the dollar, a more dramatic slowdown in hiring at home — that could reverse the progress the U.S. recovery has made.
“Economics isn’t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in mid-air,” wrote Willem Buiter, chief global economist at Citigroup, who assigned a 55 percent chance of a moderate to severe global contraction next year.
Since World War II, recessions have occurred an average of every five years. The current expansion is more than six years old, beginning in July 2009. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, but an official designation is often not made until long after the decline has already begun.
The Great Recession started in December 2007 but was not officially diagnosed until a year later -- after the Dow Jones Industrial average had already fallen roughly 40 percent and more than 3.5 million workers had lost their jobs.
A common refrain in economics is that expansions do not die of old age. Rather they are victims of policy decisions, such as the Fed interest rate hikes in the early 1980s to tame double-digit inflation, or of unexpected shocks, such as the implosion of the subprime mortgage industry.
But the spring of 2001 may be a more useful comparison. The country faced weak growth abroad and the fallout of the dot-com bubble, but only 15 percent of economists surveyed that summer believed a downturn had begun, according to Blue Chip forecasts.
Yet the nation was in the midst of a recession that lasted nine months. The downturn was relatively shallow, and in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, then-President George W. Bush quickly proposed a stimulus package that delivered tax rebates to every household.
“A recession is inevitable in the fullness of time. The question is when is one likely to occur?” said Jason Thomas, director of research at The Carlyle Group, a financial services and private equity firm.
Thomas said he doesn’t believe one is imminent. But the more important question, he said, is how damaging it would be if it occurred. Most economists, including Thomas, believe the next recession will likely be mild. The problem is that the nation’s top policymakers may have less power to combat it.
If anything, analysts worry that it will be officials in Washington who inadvertently send the economy over the edge. Bitterly divided lawmakers have no clear plan for averting a catastrophic default on the nation’s debt obligations next month or a shutdown of the federal government in December. The hurdle for any stimulus may be insurmountable.
The other backstop during the financial crisis was the Fed. The nation’s central bank slashed its key interest rate to zero in December 2008 and has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy. Seven years later, rates are still at zero and the Fed has maintained a $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
In other words, most of the central bank’s arsenal is already deployed.
In an interview, former Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said if another recession were to strike, the central bank could resume pumping money into the economy, promise to keep interest rates at zero even longer or even turn them negative -- essentially doubling down on the experimental policies from which officials have been trying to extricate the economy.
“They’re not on the whole a super attractive set of options,” Bernanke said. “So you would hope first that you avoid that situation.”
[Ben Bernanke tells us why he was right about the economy]
But for many Americans, the difference between recovery and recession is blurry at best. The nation’s labor force has shrunk to the lowest level since the 1970s, partly because many people have given up looking for work. Those working part-time even though they would prefer full-time jobs remain well above the pre-recession level.
Perhaps most importantly, wage growth has remained stuck at about 2 percent despite a drop in the unemployment rate and a pickup in hiring.
Georgia resident Dawn O’Neal said she is making less now than she did 15 years ago when she started her career in early childhood education. At 48, she earns $8.50 an hour and believes the minimum wage should be raised to $15. At the very least, she said, she shouldn’t be moving backward.
“People who work every day, people who work 40 hours a week need to get paid what they deserve,” O’Neal said. “They shouldn’t have to worry about struggling or surviving.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/10/23/economists-are-starting-to-sound-alarm-about-the-risk-of-a-new-u-s-recession/
--------------------
"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Do yourself a favor, read this book ASAP! It's a long read, but a vital one to starting to understand that The Fed is in the long run truly not your friend. Or just watch this video for now.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Wouldn't it be amazing if we had, you know.. actual free markets? I guess it's just in man's nature to try to constantly meddle and manipulate market forces/liquidity.
And the sheer arrogance of these people is incredible! Fed chairman sitting before Congress and treated like a priest. You can sit there and build dams and levies, but eventually, that damn river is going to reach the sea! It's only a matter of How and How long?
Pitiful human beings are powerless to alter the primal Forces of Nature in the long run. They just make it worse.
Markets ARE Nature.
And Nature always bats last ..
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
Edited by zorbman (10/27/15 01:54 AM)
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
#22439557 - 10/27/15 10:13 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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The Power Of The Fed has never been greater. We are heading into truly absurd times, I can't really imagine things will end well on this one. The notion that you can actually charge someone for holding your "hard earned money" at the bank is absurd. Of course, given their fees and interest, and the fact that money is created out of thin air, and it's absurd from the get go. But to have a negative interest rate, we are getting into uncharted waters.
In Denmark, their "interest rate" (amount of annual theft) is currently -0.75%. This has resulted in a huge real estate bubble with houses going up 60% in three years as people are "rewarded" for borrowing money (until prices drop back 60% and the banks foreclose).
Then, looking at oil and seeing the drop makes me want to short stocks, but until "The Fed" utters their utterances tomorrow, why bother? Of course Apple with it's pumped up lease driven phone upgrade cycle and massive stock buybacks never goes down, even with China. The stock will likely soar after their funny money earnings are reported after the bell tonight.
At least once we "get attacked" by China/Russia then there will be an excuse for the banking holidays and serious thievery of funds following the most massive debt default and war in global history.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,796
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Quote:
We are heading into truly absurd times, I can't really imagine things will end well on this one.
Things didnt get better, they got worse but they put a spin on it to make it look OK.
Their solution to paint themselves in a corner is to paint faster.
Might as well prepare for the main event.
Babylon's falling
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Asante]
#22441070 - 10/27/15 05:09 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Asante said:
Quote:
We are heading into truly absurd times, I can't really imagine things will end well on this one.
Things didnt get better, they got worse but they put a spin on it to make it look OK.
Their solution to paint themselves in a corner is to paint faster.
Might as well prepare for the main event.
Babylon's falling 
Specifically, the Petrodollar is what's being "killed" based on a number of factors, oversupply of oil and weak demand being just a part of it. The Euro certainly isn't in any great shakes, that's for sure. The German economy is really in the shitter, how those assclowns can drive up their stocks in the face of the VW scandal and Deutsche Bank literally at the apex of the SHTF derivatives is beyond me. You know how desparate they are when oil is DOWN TO 2008 crisis levels and "they" haven't even officially announced the Recession!
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Stonehenge
Alt Center

Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
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Its all juggling of the books same as we do to make unemployment look low and inflation look low. The band played on even after the titanic hit an iceberg. After all, it was unsinkable, just like the usa.
Its hard to believe the crash hasn't happened yet. But the fundamentals keep getting worse not better so its just a matter of time. It will come as a big shock and surprise to most people.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Quote:
The Power Of The Fed has never been greater. We are heading into truly absurd times
When the Fed itself goes bankrupt, that will be an amazing "Oh Shit" moment!
Another Recession/Depression Watch Update:
In U.S. dollar terms, the world is already in a recession:
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
#22443446 - 10/28/15 06:08 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
zorbman said:
Quote:
The Power Of The Fed has never been greater. We are heading into truly absurd times
When the Fed itself goes bankrupt, that will be an amazing "Oh Shit" moment!
Another Recession/Depression Watch Update:
In U.S. dollar terms, the world is already in a recession:

The Fed isn't going bankrupt. Remember, "they" are "the ones" who are able to print funny money and "we the people" pay them interest through real taxes and inflation taxes. Ultimately, "we the people" pay when "our country" (the corporation known as "the United States") defaults on the massive debts that "they" created in our straw men all capitalized letter names.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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U.S. GDP in Q3 fell to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent versus 3.9 percent the previous quarter.
Of course, the MSM is trying to put a positive spin on the news.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-gdp-lands-with-thud-just-15-growth-2015-10-29
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
#22452813 - 10/30/15 09:18 AM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
zorbman said: U.S. GDP in Q3 fell to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent versus 3.9 percent the previous quarter.
Of course, the MSM is trying to put a positive spin on the news.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-gdp-lands-with-thud-just-15-growth-2015-10-29
The GDP "numbers" are so manipulated, massaged, and downright lies at this point you have to believe it's truly more like negative 1.5 percent.
I think this Obamacare disaster has been one of and will continue to be one of the final nails in our collective coffins. Talk about a cartel screw job by the insurance companies/gov.
The student debt bubble is another huge issue not really being considered as that money/debt is completely gov/Fed controlled and created and is going to be a burden to those students once the alcohol haze wears off.
The car loan and auto industry in general has been a supposed bright spot, but it's a huge overcapacity overlending disaster in the making.
Then there's the shale oil industry debt issue that supposedly is good for Amerikkka because it created jobs while poisoning our infrastructure and literally creating earthquakes as well as poisoning wells oh well it's business as usual for big oil. But, in this case robbing peter to pay paul or JPM as the case may be is just another debt disaster in the making.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Quote:
The GDP "numbers" are so manipulated, massaged, and downright lies at this point you have to believe it's truly more like negative 1.5 percent.
I hesitated to post the GDP stats for that very reason. I guess I trust them the "less least" than some of the other notoriously cooked numbers like unemployment. I'd post John Williams' of Shadowstats Q3 GDP numbers but I don't think they're out yet.
You are absolutely right about student loans and particularly auto loans being an underreported disaster waiting to happen. It just shows you the overarching nature of the debt bubble we're in and how far-reaching and devastating it will be when it pops.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
#22453757 - 10/30/15 02:10 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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The "sub-prime" auto loans are apparently being packaged very much like the sub prime mortgage loans, in bundles of crap!
To Stoney - And The Band Played On
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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In the United States:
"Industrial production declined in the first five months of 2015. This has ALWAYS coincided with a recession."
"All four September PMIs recorded sub-zero readings, which only occurs when the US economy is already five to six months into a recession."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/worlds-three-largest-economies-are-recession
Quote:
To Stoney - And The Band Played On
Ah. Good ole' psychedelic era Temps! Let's not forget the Love and Rockets version:
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
#22469544 - 11/03/15 04:55 AM (8 years, 2 months ago) |
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Some talking head yesterday said "well, maybe when we go into a recession in a couple of years"...
Maybe it will be a good thing when the power goes out, if you can stay away from the psycho entitled people who didn't prepare because all was well.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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