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Invisiblememes
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22380231 - 10/14/15 06:57 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

so.

i'm calling for FY16Q3 as being the official marking as teh beginning of the recession (two quarters negative GDP growth)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22380241 - 10/14/15 07:03 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

"And then the bond market starts to go"

Which bond market?  I think the US 10 year traded below 2% today.




I talked about that earlier but just to recap for anyone who missed it, I would expect Europe to start going first. The junk bond market is already distressed with rising default rates -- another sign of a recession. The U.S. is fine for now IMO. In fact, I have investments in U.S. bond funds and ETFs. I'm thinking that as Europe declines, a lot of that capital will shift to the relative safety of the U.S.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22380283 - 10/14/15 07:13 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

T-bill always the 'safe haven'


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Offlineqman
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Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22380336 - 10/14/15 07:22 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

"And then the bond market starts to go"

Which bond market?  I think the US 10 year traded below 2% today.




I talked about that earlier but just to recap for anyone who missed it, I would expect Europe to start going first. The junk bond market is already distressed with rising default rates -- another sign of a recession. The U.S. is fine for now IMO. In fact, I have investments in U.S. bond funds and ETFs. I'm thinking that as Europe declines, a lot of that capital will shift to the relative safety of the U.S.




I agree that the junk market is mispriced, with that being said, we have been here before.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22386823 - 10/16/15 02:28 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

India's Exports/Imports Collapse By 25%




--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22387392 - 10/16/15 08:16 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

ive been enjoying zerohedge.com too


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: memes]
    #22387478 - 10/16/15 08:47 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
T-bill always the 'safe haven'




What will bond and stock prices do if the Fed announces NIRP?  QE4? 

The ongoing melt up in prices of such garbage stock as AMZN for example with their magic never make money formula or FB with their steal your information formula or the biotech stocks that steal your money to feed you toxic crap formula to cover up losses in real world stocks like WMT can not be sustained.  Then you have all this financial engineering of companies letting thieves like GS do buy backs with yet more debt, and this is somehow "good for shareholders". 

Borrowing money to buy more shares, how's that working for MON?  How's that working for WMT?  Oh, not that well, better ramp up the buy backs!

Too much debt?  Better borrow more to cover it in case someone notices every bank, every country, and every city is belly up already.

Lottery winner in IL wants to get paid?  Sorry, when we figure out our budget maybe we can cut you a check.

It's literally getting to be like the end of the original Dumb And Dumber where he opens up the briefcase and the money is all there in the form of IOUs...



--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: memes]
    #22388385 - 10/16/15 01:33 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
ive been enjoying zerohedge.com too




Great site. I visit almost every day.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22388990 - 10/16/15 03:43 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

memes said:
ive been enjoying zerohedge.com too




Great site. I visit almost every day.




They are doing what everyone here is doing for years/decades. Hunting every single piece of information to try to desperately reassure themselves that the market is gonna crash. So far they have been 100% wrong (just like you).

But that doesn't matter. You get to remain in denial and can never be proved wrong all the while you search high and low for little clues and pieces of irrelevant information to use circular reasoning to try to reassure yourself that the position that you have already pre-determined to be true is true ("did you notice India's exports/imports are down year over year - the world market is gonna tank any day now!!").

I can do the exact same thing to build a persuasive case that the economy has bottomed and is going to skyrocket by searching for positive economic news.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22389217 - 10/16/15 04:25 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Maybe you are the one in denial. :lol:

Time will tell ..


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22389274 - 10/16/15 04:39 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Confucian does have a valid point.  It's as biased a site as fox news or huffpo or drudge.  Everything's looked at through the same lense.  And yet, at the same time, the info i see on zerohedge is oft ending up on cnbc's main page 18-36hr later


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22389288 - 10/16/15 04:42 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

If the world isn't in recession by mid 2016, i'll eat my hat. Most likely it will be in depression by then but they will be trying to decide if its in recession or not. We are still in a recession here, never really got out of it. Cooking the books and juggling figures does not make things better.

Facts are facts, they do not have bias, humans have bias.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: memes]
    #22389345 - 10/16/15 04:53 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Every one and every site has a POV. Sure, I like zerohedge. But it's only one of many sites I visit. Just like I watch all news networks to get as balanced of a view as possible. Most people stick to only the source that tells them what they want to hear. I don't want an economic depression! A lot of people will get hurt. I just look at the data and what it tells me. What it has indicated in the past. Doesn't mean it's 100 percent. But it's getting pretty damn close.

One thing I like about ZH is that, while not perfect, they are not cheerleaders for the markets. :cheer:


Many media outlets cheer-led investors right over the cliff in '08. They have no predictive power. I pay attention to sources that are on the cutting edge and have proven themselves in the past. Then I return to them.

If someone has some rosy stats to prove me wrong, feel free to post them. Or just play attack the messenger.

There's alway that.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/16/15 05:04 PM)


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22389455 - 10/16/15 05:19 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
If someone has some rosy stats to prove me wrong, feel free to post them. Or just play attack the messenger.

There's alway that.




Some Good News About the Global Economy

The IMF garnered headlines last week for lowering their world economic growth outlook. What was less discussed, but potentially more important for investors, was that they maintained their outlook for stronger growth in 2016. They’re not alone. In fact, most forecasters, including the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the consensus of economists’ forecasts tracked by Bloomberg, foresee a stronger world economy in 2016 than in 2015 or 2014.

In particular, the IMF forecasts:

• The euro zone will accelerate slightly (to 1.6%) from the pace in 2015 which was already the fastest growth since 2010.

• Economic growth in the United States will improve slightly (to 2.8%), making for the fastest annual pace of growth since 2005.

• Japan’s weak economy will reaccelerate by about half of a percentage point (to 1.0%) from 2015 in 2016.

• Emerging market economies are also expected to grow about a half of a percentage point faster in 2016 (to 4.5%).

• The biggest downgrades to the IMF growth outlook were in commodity-driven developed and emerging economies in recession: Brazil, Russia, and Canada. Of these, only Canada’s economy is expected to grow in 2016.

In addition, the IMF sees an increase in global inflation from 0.3% in 2015 to 1.2% in 2016, potentially marking a big step back from the risk of deflation


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22389502 - 10/16/15 05:27 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap? They were predicting a few years ago that the us economy would be booming by now. China is stumbling, Europe is doing poorly but there is no shortage of cheerleading from the usual suspects.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Offlineqman
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Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 4 hours, 47 minutes
Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22389533 - 10/16/15 05:33 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Confucian said:
Quote:

zorbman said:
If someone has some rosy stats to prove me wrong, feel free to post them. Or just play attack the messenger.

There's alway that.




Some Good News About the Global Economy

The IMF garnered headlines last week for lowering their world economic growth outlook. What was less discussed, but potentially more important for investors, was that they maintained their outlook for stronger growth in 2016. They’re not alone. In fact, most forecasters, including the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the consensus of economists’ forecasts tracked by Bloomberg, foresee a stronger world economy in 2016 than in 2015 or 2014.

In particular, the IMF forecasts:

• The euro zone will accelerate slightly (to 1.6%) from the pace in 2015 which was already the fastest growth since 2010.

• Economic growth in the United States will improve slightly (to 2.8%), making for the fastest annual pace of growth since 2005.

• Japan’s weak economy will reaccelerate by about half of a percentage point (to 1.0%) from 2015 in 2016.

• Emerging market economies are also expected to grow about a half of a percentage point faster in 2016 (to 4.5%).

• The biggest downgrades to the IMF growth outlook were in commodity-driven developed and emerging economies in recession: Brazil, Russia, and Canada. Of these, only Canada’s economy is expected to grow in 2016.

In addition, the IMF sees an increase in global inflation from 0.3% in 2015 to 1.2% in 2016, potentially marking a big step back from the risk of deflation




I agree that ZH has lost a lot of credibility the past 4 years, they get way too excited about potential bad news.

The IMF is really no better, does anyone really think emerging market economies are going to grow 4.5% next year?  Not a chance in hell.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: qman]
    #22390216 - 10/16/15 07:59 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I see claims of recession in a thread about a depression.  How do I know which one we are in when its mid 2016?


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Invisiblezorbman
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Registered: 06/04/04
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22391452 - 10/16/15 11:59 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap?




Probably some kind of synthetic drug like QE4  :wink:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/17/15 12:11 AM)


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22407205 - 10/20/15 04:46 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

Stonehenge said:
I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap?




Probably some kind of synthetic drug like QE4  :wink:




They were huffing NIRP.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22407505 - 10/20/15 07:12 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

Stonehenge said:
I wonder what drugs they are on when they come up with that crap?




Probably some kind of synthetic drug like QE4  :wink:




They were huffing NIRP.




:lol:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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