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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22332036 - 10/04/15 10:15 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
Its debt that is creating the crisis, the unspoken elephant in the room.

Housing will not fall, there may be fluctuations but there is a genuine housing shortage. Come what may, people have to live somewhere. They can give up gold, give up a fancy car, trade down to a flip phone but they have to live somewhere and that will be a house or apt, condo, etc.




Basic economics and logic dictates that you (central banks) can't "solve" a debt problem by increasing the debt indefinitely.  Japan is really the "model" here we should be looking at, on many levels.  Abenomics is QE on steroids, in fact I think now Abe calls it QQE. 

We are also on the brink of likely direct "fiscal stimulus" where the central banks inject money into the system in the form of checks to "deserving" (illegal aliens) recipients.  This used to be done and who could possibly resist cashing and spending money for nothing?

The amount of debt is so far in excess of the money available to pay for it, that another 88 trillion would have to be "printed" to satisfy it.  What most don't understand about leveraging, is the deleveraging process that inevitably occurs.  It's already starting, as the EM money flow is no longer into the EMs, but out of the EMs. 

Oil prices surely will be retesting 40 sooner than going back over 50.  Where's the demand?  It isn't there, but there's more than enough supply, and massive amounts sitting idle in tanks and tankers.

The Baltic Index reflects the lack of shipping demand and demand for commodities.

Many many stocks are already in bear market territory.  Earnings will be crap this year except for the companies such as HD and LOW who keep increasing their long term debt so they can keep buying back ever more expensive shares in their company stock.  This is truly a Ponzi Scheme where the owners are fleecing investors into believing what a great investment it is because it "goes up every year" as the companies pay big stock option bonuses and really only buy shares to benefit themselves at the expense of shareholders who lose equity in spades when the whole house of cards come tumbling down. 


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Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (10/04/15 10:18 AM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22333931 - 10/04/15 06:15 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

"I built a new indicator of US economic activity which contains 17 components ranging from lumber prices and high-yield bond spreads to the inventory-to-sales ratio. It was necessary to construct such an indicator because six years of extreme monetary policy in the US (and other developed markets) has stripped “traditional” cyclical economic data of any real meaning.."  -- Charles Gave

As you can see, each time the indicator dipped to -5, we were either in a recession or one was imminent.



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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22338881 - 10/05/15 09:59 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Lunar, how bad do you see it getting?


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22339797 - 10/06/15 06:08 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Bad enough where the IMF/World Bank/BIS need to "step in" and "save us" just like they are "saving" Greece now...


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22343273 - 10/06/15 10:32 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Bad enough where the IMF/World Bank/BIS need to "step in" and "save us" just like they are "saving" Greece now...




I think they're not really saving anyone. They're just delaying the inevitable. And I don't see how they can save a country the size of the United States.

Who will bail out the bailers? :lol:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/06/15 10:56 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22348506 - 10/08/15 02:39 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

October 8, 2015

Today Deutsche Bank announced a $7 billion quarterly loss from impaired asset write-downs litigation reserves. 

Deutsche Bank, at $75 trillion in holdings, is the largest derivatives player in the world now.  This amount of derivatives is 20x greater than the GDP of Germany.  And that’s DB’s “net” exposure.  As counterparties default, that $75 trillion blossoms at a geometric rate. Deutsche Bank is too big for the German Government to bail-out without implementing Weimar-era money printing.  It’s balance sheet is a nuclear cesspool of toxic assets.

DB is not only now the lethal sovereign risk of Germany, it is the sovereign risk of the entire EU. Whereas Bear Stearns [and] Lehman [Brothers] triggered the Great Financial Collapse in the U.S., Deutsche Bank could potentially trigger the collapse of the global financial system.


http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22350056 - 10/08/15 01:02 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Day After Deutsche Bank Admits Not All Is Well, Swiss Giant Credit Suisse Also Admits It Needs More Cash

.. The real reason, of course, has nothing to do with this, and everything to do with the collapse of manipulation cartels involving Liebor, FX, commodities, bonds, equities, gold, and so on, because when banks can no longer collude with each other to push markets in any given direction, that's when they start losing money. That and, of course, the fact that central bank intervention in capital markets has made it virtually impossible to trade any more. Or as they call it, "miss capital ratios."

Expect many more such announcements in the coming weeks.


I hope so!! :strokebeard: :cheer:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-08/day-after-deutsche-bank-admits-not-all-well-swiss-giant-credit-suisse-also-admits-it


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22354285 - 10/09/15 11:22 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
October 8, 2015

Today Deutsche Bank announced a $7 billion quarterly loss from impaired asset write-downs litigation reserves. 

Deutsche Bank, at $75 trillion in holdings, is the largest derivatives player in the world now.  This amount of derivatives is 20x greater than the GDP of Germany.  And that’s DB’s “net” exposure.  As counterparties default, that $75 trillion blossoms at a geometric rate. Deutsche Bank is too big for the German Government to bail-out without implementing Weimar-era money printing.  It’s balance sheet is a nuclear cesspool of toxic assets.

DB is not only now the lethal sovereign risk of Germany, it is the sovereign risk of the entire EU. Whereas Bear Stearns [and] Lehman [Brothers] triggered the Great Financial Collapse in the U.S., Deutsche Bank could potentially trigger the collapse of the global financial system.


http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/




Check out the Chinese bank, Hua Xia, that DB owns 20% of.  They use WMP to Ponzi the Chinese people with supposedly guaranteed returns in the shadow but not really market.  A couple of years ago some Chinese investors lost all their money, let alone didn't make a "guaranteed" return.  The CONfidence game in China is just that, and their faith in the all mighty government, while shaken some with the recent stock market crash, remains quite strong.

The latest gambling venture in China is bonds.  The chase for yields is strong.  Then they do a repo game where they get 10x leverage/increased risk.  The Chinese sure love to gamble but aren't very good at it.

Anyway, the DB and CS are as you say the cracks in the armor.  DB stock immediately dropped 10% on the news then went back to not only near break even, but up on the day.  Up again today.

Bad is in fact the new good.  Flat is the new normal.  Negative growth is still growth. 

I think this week we saw a worldwide QE assault by all the central bankers.  They are meeting together.  Christine LaGarde encouraged cooperation which in central bank speak means collusion for their mutual profit.  They made some serious bank with the funny money invested in stocks that should have gone down on the employment report and other bad news, but of course bad is the new good.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22356367 - 10/09/15 08:41 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Bad is in fact the new good.  Flat is the new normal.  Negative growth is still growth.




Yeah, it's a perverse system. No one knows what the true price of a given asset would be without central bank intervention. I think that works for awhile .. then the markets begin to factor in that risk. I mean you can't trust the GDP numbers, unemployment, etc.

How the hell do you rationally invest in such a climate??

At some point, ONE individual gets nervous.. then it's hundreds.. thousands.. then millions. And then the bond market starts to go .. Because that is where the bubble is!

It's not stocks this Time!!
Quote:


The CONfidence game in China is just that, and their faith in the all mighty government, while shaken some with the recent stock market crash, remains quite strong.




People are always fighting the Last War. It's not a bubble in stocks. This time, it's in bonds. Look at China!



--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22362207 - 10/11/15 08:55 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

When the bond market finally goes down the tubes it's going to be the bubble of all time bursting everywhere.  Pension funds, for example, just imagine the horror.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22370576 - 10/12/15 08:42 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

It's really hard to overstate the devastation coming our way. This is unprecedented. We've had a 35-year bull market in bonds. Very few people have operated in any other environment. And few now living remember the Great Depression, which I think will look like a picnic compared to this one.

When it goes, it will also be worldwide. Some countries will get hit harder than others of course.

And we need to realize that there will be upheaval politically as well. Hitler, Stalin, and Mao all came to power within a few years of each other around the time of the Great Depression. Then we got World War II.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22371076 - 10/12/15 10:06 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I was just reading an article in the Economist this week about the rising bond spread between government/aaa bonds and lower grade bonds.  Apparently that divergence is an indicator of looming recession.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22372423 - 10/13/15 09:47 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Obumble is hoping the recession will hit in the next presidents term so he can dodge responsibility. It will begin well before that, imo. I wonder if they will blame bush for that too? The media plays cheerleader telling us things are super peachy but any fool can see things are not that great. Compared to later this may be called the end of the golden age so maybe we should appreciate what we still have before its gone.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22376651 - 10/14/15 12:28 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Some recent economic news and headlines:


* The IMF is warning that a new financial crisis is brewing.

* Goldman Sachs: The Third Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Upon Us.

* UBS' 17 year-old Managed High Yield Plus Bond Fund to be liquidated.

* Credit downgrades are now at the highest levels since the peak of the financial crisis in 2009.

* One third of global GDP is already in a recession.

* Volkswagen -- the largest employer in the largest economy in Europe -- had their debt downgraded, making it harder to obtain financing. Further downgrading is expected. And they may be on the hook for $50 billion in losses from the diesel gate scandal.

* Global trade declined 8.4 percent from this time last year.

* China's imports collapsed 20.4 percent in September from this time last year! A sign that something is really, really wrong there. That is HUGE. They are the second largest economy in the world!

I can't tell you how many times the past two weeks I've read bad economic data from different sources, all containing the same phrase: "First time since Lehman."


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/14/15 12:54 AM)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22377609 - 10/14/15 09:34 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)




Yup, better get ready.

I take it that other than financially prepared you have a months worth of food & drink, first aid stuff and that shit?

I do.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Asante]
    #22377807 - 10/14/15 10:24 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

On economics you tend to be right. On everything else, well.....

The sheep think all is fine, the cheerleaders in the media are tirelessly cranking out feel good stories. If one indicator out of 80 is weakly positive and the rest are weakly bad to very bad, you know which one will be the lead story.

I see people in this forum including mods sneering at the "gloom and doom" predictors saying they have been saying the same thing for 10 years or whatever. Things have been very bad for about 6 or 7 years, coincidentally the amount of time your hero obumble has been on the job mismanaging everything.

Debt is unpayable so the only possible outcomes are printing up fake money to plug the gap, renouncing the debt, or some other scheme involving a little of both

Only an idiot would believe the fed is or was going to raise interest rates. That would be the final blow and everything goes to hell after that. Yet yellin keeps making those balony speeches about maybe raising rates soon and fools keep believing it.

I'm sticking with my prediction of no raises in interst rates and that the collapse will be gradual rather than shockingly sudden. I've changed my outlook on that last part. The stock market may have sudden collapses with the usual upward spike after each one but the general situation will simply grind lower and lower. The dems will try to blame it on bush or on the next president.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22378433 - 10/14/15 12:46 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Wal-Mart.  Oops.  Funny how they blame the poor worker who got the raise from $9 an hour to $10 an hour working part time to avoid getting benefits.  How dare that worker try to live so luxuriously.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22378797 - 10/14/15 02:09 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Walmart is putting out what the public wants. It wants cheap crappy Chinese junk at rock bottom prices. Ask the public if they want to pay more so the workers can live more luxuriously and the answer is no if they have to pay for it but yes if someone else pays for it.

People are free to buy from Nordstrom's, saks, and other high end retailers that pay people more. but few do and almost none of the poor and lower middle class do. The do gooders who want higher wages without more productivity are killing both the poor and business in general.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22379983 - 10/14/15 06:00 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

The sheep think all is fine, the cheerleaders in the media are tirelessly cranking out feel good stories. If one indicator out of 80 is weakly positive and the rest are weakly bad to very bad, you know which one will be the lead story.




Wal-Mart's profits are tanking. Their stock got slammed - 10% today. And what was the headline on Marketwatch?

Wal-Mart to Buyback $20 Billion of Stock :cheer:


More economic news:


* Industrial production fell five months straight in the first half of 2015. This has never happened outside of a recession.

* Merchant Wholesalers’ Sales are in recession territory.

* The Empire Manufacturing Survey is in recession territory.

* All four of the Fed’s September Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings (Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, and Kansas City) came in at readings of sub-zero. This usually happens when you are already 4-5 months into a recession.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-14/us-back-recession-interest-rates-already-zero


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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22380051 - 10/14/15 06:18 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

Bad is in fact the new good.  Flat is the new normal.  Negative growth is still growth.




Yeah, it's a perverse system. No one knows what the true price of a given asset would be without central bank intervention. I think that works for awhile .. then the markets begin to factor in that risk. I mean you can't trust the GDP numbers, unemployment, etc.

How the hell do you rationally invest in such a climate??

At some point, ONE individual gets nervous.. then it's hundreds.. thousands.. then millions. And then the bond market starts to go .. Because that is where the bubble is!






"And then the bond market starts to go"

Which bond market?  I think the US 10 year traded below 2% today.


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