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Invisiblezorbman
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Global Depression IMMINENT
    #22315521 - 09/30/15 06:10 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

In my opinion, history will record October 2015 as the beginning of an historic global depression beginning in Europe, then spreading to the U.S.. There are plenty of signs, some of which some of you have already very ably pointed out.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates too low for too long, and a number of asset bubbles have formed as a result. Bubbles that are in the process of popping. The proximate one is the commodity bubble.

There are a number of possible triggers: One is the ongoing collapse of Glencore - a multinational mining and commodity trading company. Their stock was down 29 percent Monday and almost the same the following day I believe. At one time this was the 10th largest company in the world!

They owe twice what they are worth and their debt was recently downgraded to just above junk bond status. In fact, they were downgraded 7 years to the day after Lehman Brothers was downgraded. As most of you remember, 3 months later they collapsed, officially kicking off the Great Recession. It's been a little over 3 months since Glencore was downgraded. I think it was June 9th.

Another is Trafigura. Also I'm hearing Deutsche Bank is in trouble. They have a lot of exposure to Glencore and trillions in derivatives. They are laying people off. Folks, this ain't Greece! We're talking the largest bank in Germany -- the only country keeping Europe afloat. If they go down, they'll take the rest of Europe down with them. Also, Volkswagen -- the largest employer in Germany -- is tanking because of the Dieselgate scandal.

It also appears the junk bond market is starting to tank. That's how it'd begin -- on the periphery. 

People are expecting the classic stock market collapse, although I think the U.S. stock market could have a significant correction,  I think the bubble is in the bond market. The last economic crisis never ended. It was just papered over. Literally. Nothing was done to address the root causes of the crisis, and debt has skyrocketed since then. The Too Big To Fail banks are even bigger. No one went to jail.

Central banks think they can control everything and not allow a cleansing recession to occur. It's like a forest fire. These are usually natural events that clear out the dead wood and make way for new growth. When they are suppressed every single time, the dry brush builds up, and when the fire DOES hit, it's god awful.

This is going to be SEISMIC and, I believe, eventually result in the collapse of the global financial system. Key thing to realize is that this is a process, not a single event!

Money can be made. I'm shorting Europe big time. I think it kicks off this October and most likely in the first week or two of the month. The U.S. should be the last man standing and could hold up for a year or two.

Buckle up!!


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22316961 - 10/01/15 12:12 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Yea, we shall see.  I think we will see oil under $60 a barrel for the next calendar year.  Aside from Glencore, there are a bunch of energy companies on the verge of bankruptcy like Goodrich Patroleum and Halcon Resources.  Your comment about Deutsche bank is a poignant one.  Tons of banks have massive credit lines to energy and materials and with the asset re-evaluation to come over the next month, that will send some companies into bankruptcy. 

I was just reading about an energy merger earlier today and I think there are many more to come in Q1 2016.  With Q3 reports due in October, I think the market is going to get crushed when people learn how bad it really is.  Housing is teetering on the edge and the blast up in home value was not really predicated by any tangible change.  While many analysts seem to think there will be an end of year rally, I don't see how that will be possible based on the trends so far.  There has been no change in the overall fundamentals to suggest that and things will only get worse with an imminent rate increase.  The Fed clearly don't know what the fuck they are doing as when they didn't raise rates, they cited concerns over the global economy and the failure for the inflation rate to hit the target 2% by a large margin; however, a mere week later they claimed that they would raise rates if inflation remained the same as things "looked better" when actually nothing had changed.  Importantly, I really don't think chinese ecomonic data can be believed and the data is most likely skewed upward from the reality.

That said, I think QE and decreasing interest rates in Europe will keep the markets afloat for the near term.  Internationally, we should be keeping our eye on Venezuela, South Africa, Brazil, and Russia which remain in recession.  An economic collapse in especially the last 2 could send the world spiraling out of control.  I remain bullish on Chesapeake Energy, Freeport McMoran, and Transocean for good super cheap buys over the next year during the temporary rally for some easy money to be made.  The first wave was dividend cancellation from tons of companies, now we are seeing large layoffs and pending mergers.  Once we see a wave of bankruptcy filings and mergers, I think it will be time to buy and hold for the next 1-2 years and re-evaluate.  We are definitely teetering on the verge of the abyss.  Hard to say what will happen from there.


--------------------


"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


Edited by All We Perceive (10/01/15 12:32 AM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22317077 - 10/01/15 01:01 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

I think we will see oil under $60 a barrel for the next calendar year.




I agree. And probably well under as this deflationary wave sweeps over.

Also agree with you pretty much on which countries to watch. As for Brazil, S&P cut their debt rating to junk bond status.

Quote:

Deutsche bank is a poignant one.  Tons of banks have massive credit lines to energy and materials..





One thing I didn't mention is Deutsche Bank has 75 trillion in exposure to derivatives. That's crazy considering the entire economy of Germany only pulls 4 trillion a year!

Quote:

..and with the asset re-evaluation to come over the next month, that will send some companies into bankruptcy.




That is one interesting thing to me. As these companies go belly up, the loss of production sets the stage for the next rally in commodities. I don't have a good feel for when that will happen yet. I'm too focused on the immediate situation in Europe.

Quote:

That said, I think QE and decreasing interest rates in Europe will keep the markets afloat for the near term.




Normally, that would probably be the case. I think that central banks have shot their wad though. The markets just don't seem to be responding positively anymore to their pronouncements. They're in the corner with the gun pointed at the monster, but they've fired all their bullets.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22317486 - 10/01/15 05:22 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
In my opinion, history will record October 2015 as the beginning of an historic global depression beginning in Europe, then spreading to the U.S..





I think you are 100% wrong.

1) Europe is not a country. There are 50 countries that make up Europe - all with their own unique problems. You cannot just group 50 countries together and act like they are 1.

2) History has already known that parts of Europe went through and is still in a Great Recession. Greece is currently in a depression. The debt crisis is well documented since 2009.

3) By definition, in order for a region to be in a recession, you need 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This has not happened. The economies of the 19 countries in the Eurozone grew by .3% in Q2 and .4% in Q1.



Quote:

zorbman said:There are a number of possible triggers: One is the ongoing collapse of Glencore - a multinational mining and commodity trading company. Their stock was down 29 percent Monday and almost the same the following day I believe.




1 Random no-name stock has absolutely zero affect on the stock market. Nobody cares or should care about Glencore. It has zero impact on anything and is 1 random meaningless stock that nobody cares about.

Also - it recovered every penny that it dropped.



Edited by Confucian (10/01/15 05:33 AM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Confucian]
    #22319097 - 10/01/15 01:04 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

1) Europe is not a country. There are 50 countries that make up Europe - all with their own unique problems. You cannot just group 50 countries together and act like they are 1.




The European Union shares a single market, a monetary union, and loose borders between member states. It consists of 28 countries with strong economic and political ties. What affects one affects the others. We live in a global economy anyway. When strong economies like Germany, China, and Brazil begin slowing, it affects everyone. Debt requires economic growth. Where in the world do you see the needed growth coming from?

Quote:

2) History has already known that parts of Europe went through and is still in a Great Recession. Greece is currently in a depression. The debt crisis is well documented since 2009.




Yes of course. I saw that one coming too. I am saying that the debt crisis has reached the End Game. The bubble is about to POP! And Europe itself isn't yet in a depression as far as we know.

Quote:

3) By definition, in order for a region to be in a recession, you need 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This has not happened. The economies of the 19 countries in the Eurozone grew by .3% in Q2 and .4% in Q1.




You don't know you are actually in a technical recession or depression except in the rear view mirror when the numbers come in. As Perceive said, "We shall see."

Quote:

1 Random no-name stock has absolutely zero affect on the stock market. Nobody cares or should care about Glencore. It has zero impact on anything and is 1 random meaningless stock that nobody cares about.

Also - it recovered every penny that it dropped.




It's down 70 percent for the year. And the 10th largest company in the world is hardly inconsequential. Most people didn't know about AIG before the '08 crisis either. But as I mentioned before, I don't see this as primarily a stock market event. It's mainly a bond market event/process with some stock market spillover. But forget about Glencore for now. As I also mentioned, it is only one of a multitude of potential triggers for the next stage of the economic crisis. You won't see it until it's already happened.

If I'm looking at an unstable building filled with gasoline and pedestrians below lighting cigarettes, I may not know which particular individual it will be, but I know one thing: There's gonna be a LOT of crispy critters real soon!! :grin:


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblefilthyknees
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22319573 - 10/01/15 03:01 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

with full disclosure I only read the title of the thread here is my opinion:

those in power will not allow absolute collapse just fluctuation because it's not in their interests as it would create a less economically viable situation for their earnings to have value.


--------------------
But if you're in a hurry, and really got to go
If you're in a hurry, might have to find out slow
That it's one thing to try and another to fly
You get there quicker just a step at a time
It's one thing to bark, another to bite
The show ain't over till you pack up at night


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman] * 1
    #22320241 - 10/01/15 05:51 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

You also ardently predicted hyper inflation in 2012 and you were wrong.  You regularly predict doom and gloom that doesn't come to fruition.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: DieCommie]
    #22320315 - 10/01/15 06:12 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

It was 2011 and admittedly I blew that one. But I did accurately predict the 2008 economic crisis and false economic recovery. You conveniently leave that out. Sixty six percent is a damn good batting average.

And I don't "regularly predict doom and gloom". That's just bullshit. I call 'em as I see 'em. When I see booms, I call them as well.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: filthyknees]
    #22320361 - 10/01/15 06:23 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

filthyknees said:
with full disclosure I only read the title of the thread here is my opinion:

those in power will not allow absolute collapse just fluctuation because it's not in their interests as it would create a less economically viable situation for their earnings to have value.




So if the people "in charge" have the power to stop it, why did we have The Great Recession of 2008? The Great Depression itself?

What about the Panic of 1893? The Panic of 1813? The Tulip Bubble?

And every other financial crisis and panic throughout history?

Markets and economies are forces of Nature. It's pure hubris to think they can be controlled over the long haul by some man behind the curtain. All they can do is forestall the ultimate result, making it much worse when it unfolds.

Also, people don't need markets to only move up to make money. You can make money when the markets fall as well. For example, I made a 300% profit in six weeks on the VIX last month by betting right on volatility.


Edited by zorbman (10/01/15 06:32 PM)


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22320799 - 10/01/15 07:42 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I honestly don't remember you making either of those predictions.

How long until we know whether this prediction comes to fruition or not?


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: DieCommie]
    #22320904 - 10/01/15 08:05 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

DieCommie said:
I honestly don't remember you making either of those predictions.

How long until we know whether this prediction comes to fruition or not?




That's okay. Some were in posts, others were in sigs which don't stay with the post. It doesn't matter because I don't base what I claim upon my supposed authority or even accuracy -- just on the facts as I've layed them out here.

How long? I would guess by late summer at the latest. Btw, the government doesn't declare depressions. In fact, the word "recession" is a fairly recent term. They used to just call everything a "depression" - meaning a downturn in the economy.

To be clear, what I am forecasting is the beginning of a sustained, global economic downturn beginning this month in Europe. It will only be visible in the rear view mirror, as are all long term trends.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22321188 - 10/01/15 08:57 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Global economic downturn means a reduction in the global GDP?  Or some other metric?


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: DieCommie]
    #22321404 - 10/01/15 09:57 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I don't have a strong feel for the precise trigger to get the party started. It could be GDP, it could be unemployment, it could (and probably will) be a sudden spike in interest rates. (When they do rise, I expect them to go up much faster than most people expect.) Whatever the case may be, I don't think there's going to be much disagreement about it when we look back on this time period.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22325058 - 10/02/15 06:20 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Its debt that is creating the crisis, the unspoken elephant in the room. Debt is what brought down Greece and will bring down many other countries. In some cases it was because of falling commodity prices, Russia and Venezuela were hit hard by that, others hit but not as hard.

Lets just look at usa for a moment. Its a single country and owes over $18T in federal debt and much more than that in state, county, and municipal debt. This is simply not payable. So what happens when there is an unpayable debt? Look at Greece for the answer.

USA has stayed afloat thus far due in great measure to its reputation as the world super power. Many countries use the us dollar as the official or unofficial currency. In many places its preferred over the official money which goes down in value all the time. We are the last one standing but even we will go under.

What will be the end game? That is the interesting part. Oil has been pushed down because of falling demand but it will go back up one day. Gold has been manipulated down, it will go up along with silver big time. Will commodities really go up or will it be currency going down? Perhaps both? Loads of qe leads to that. Some countries can't print money fast enough because it loses value faster than they can create more. Take Zimbabwe and the 100 trillion dollar bills for example.

Housing will not fall, there may be fluctuations but there is a genuine housing shortage. Come what may, people have to live somewhere. They can give up gold, give up a fancy car, trade down to a flip phone but they have to live somewhere and that will be a house or apt, condo, etc.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22325162 - 10/02/15 06:46 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Isn't it all about fear anyways. For all of the 99% that have money invested, these possible "popping bubbles", scare them into selling off stock or cashing in bonds early, which drops prices and values of companies. Which makes prime opportunity for bigger companies that are doing fine to come in and suck up the failing ones. After a drawn out rocky few months everything ends up fine again. After the smoke clears from that we have just bigger companies.

I for-see this happening over and over again until a few companies or families own everything. Or can sway there massive power around to thwart any up and coming companies to take foot hold.


I just dont see how the world economy will collapse, when most countries are in massive debt. The U.S. for instance, we don't have any money. We have an ever accumulating debt. There is no way to get out of that debt. It will never happen, not in our lifetimes or 50 generations from now.

Now here is a my twist on this whole thing, the 1% are sucking everything dry. Meanwhile space exploration is happening in full force right now. The fact that supposedly just found out about water on mars is highly unlikely. I feel like its been known for a loooong time. Anyways bacck to the point. The 1% are eventually going to build some crazy space colonyship and fly away leaving us with nothing. Thats going to be the "global collapse". Either they let us live and figure shit out on out own. Or they will be smart and know we outnumber them by billions. Nuke the whole planet. And go start somewhere fresh.

_boomertowns prediction for the future_


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22325430 - 10/02/15 07:32 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I think that's a sound analysis of the situation, Stonehenge. The entire world is choked up to its eyeballs with bad debt, and it hasn't been allowed to be purged from the system by market forces. If you had normal economic growth, you could manage most of this debt. That's what these supposedly smart people don't get. Growth is D-E-A-D. Every dollar they injected into the system used to get us a dollar's worth of GDP. That number has been steadily shrinking year after year. It ain't working anymore!! END GAME.

I think what we're seeing now is central banks rapidly losing control. Market movers are realizing the Emperor has no clothes, and the frail woman behind the curtain has been exposed. She's Yellen but it won't do any good!

Quote:

Housing will not fall, there may be fluctuations but there is a genuine housing shortage. Come what may, people have to live somewhere. They can give up gold, give up a fancy car, trade down to a flip phone but they have to live somewhere and that will be a house or apt, condo, etc.




That's the only part I'm not so sure about. I actually expect the real estate market to tank but admittedly, I haven't looked into it that closely. Yes, people will always need housing, but it doesn't necessarily equal one house per family. You are seeing more and more multi-generational households as people attempt to lower their cost of living by sharing it. The housing shortage you spoke of might buy us some time though.

One thing's for sure: These next few years are going to be absolutely amazing (and scary) to live through and hopefully very profitable for some of us.  We just need some actual leadership in DC to make the correct decisions and Soon. Me? I'm not holding my breath.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (10/02/15 07:42 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Boomertown]
    #22325462 - 10/02/15 07:37 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I'll give Stonehenge a chance to respond before I do. I think you made some good points, although I came to a somewhat different conclusion.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Boomertown]
    #22325594 - 10/02/15 07:55 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

>I just dont see how the world economy will collapse, when most countries are in massive debt. The U.S. for instance, we don't have any money. We have an ever accumulating debt. There is no way to get out of that debt. It will never happen, not in our lifetimes or 50 generations from now.

You answered your own question. The debt will tank the world economy, its doing it right now. There are many other factors of course but unpayable debt is high on the list.

What we can do is debase the currency through qe or some other method. The debt is in fixed dollars so if a hundred dollars in 10 years buys what 10 dollars buys today, we can pay off the debt cheap. Treasury holders will not be happy but they will get their money

The alternative is a run on treasuries with everyone wanting to cash them in. We can't have that so we have to buy back whatever anyone wants to sell even if it means printing more money to do it.

Zorb, you have a point about multi generational families living in the same house or building. The millenials are not moving out on their own, many of them are staying with mom and dad. This is taking pressure off the housing market but bottom line is you have to have a place to live. People will work a job just for housing, the wife can work for food and the kids pay off the utilities, or something.

Certain things will always be in demand; food, water, transportation and a place to live.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: Boomertown]
    #22325777 - 10/02/15 08:29 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

I agree with Stonehenge. It can go two ways: You can default on the debt or inflate your way out. I am torn as to what will ultimately happen. I used to be firmly in the Inflate camp, but lately I'm leaning towards some type of default.

But you're right that the elite make money when every asset bubble pops, I'm just not convinced they are deliberately blown up for that purpose. The elite definitely have inside info though and profit every time.

I think this one is different though. We're talking a bond bubble here that has been inflating for DECADES. The entire global economy is built upon debt. Money IS debt! When this bubble pops it will, in my opinion, destroy the entire financial system. Then all bets are off. The ENTIRE shithouse will go up in flames. We could see the pitchforks come out. You will definitely see an increase in tyranny, civil unrest, war, and revolutions during this period. That's what makes this particular bubble aftermath so scary. Sure, if you're nimble you can make money. But can you keep it out of the hands of the government? Or your neighbor's?


Edited by zorbman (10/02/15 08:42 PM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Global Depression IMMINENT [Re: zorbman]
    #22326697 - 10/03/15 01:57 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

For the 10th month in a row, US Factory Orders dropped year-over-year - the longest streak outside of a recession in history.

Look at the previous times this has happened. ALL Recessions:



--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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