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TheBrazilian
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Re: Invasion of Greek Island of Lesbos by Syrian Refugees [Re: Ellis Dee]
#22212770 - 09/09/15 03:23 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Ellis Dee said:
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Ezuma said: Except that times change, systems evolve. History has played out certain ways over the last 7 thousand years, that doesn't mean patters are permanent. We have different technologies than we've ever had, and we have far more power to shape our societies and world. Sure human nature is much the same as it always was, but the game is changing and war even now isn't what it was.
I'll change the subject in order to entertain a hypothetical. I hope you'll enter in to the discussion.
On of the basic principles of history is that geography determines destiny. The British naval tradition and the American frontier and Ocean boundaries...
The European plain has no natural defenses and so it is easily invaded and the territory changes hands over and over. We see this with Polish wars, Russian, and so forth. When Napoleon invaded Russia the only choice Russia had was to continue to fall back into their enourmous and expansive territory and let Napoleon defeat himself. This lack of natural geographical defenses made Russia very vulnerable to invasions over the centuries.
So Russia under the rule of Ivan Czar of all Russians formed a new strategy. For the first time Russia would begin systematic offensive activities to all of its Eastern neighbors. This new strategy was that their best defense was a good offense. And it seemed to work. This is the same strategy carried on to the Soviet Union and explains why they chose to incorporate those Eastern European countries in to the Soviet bloc. Today uncle Vlad (Putin) has set out an identical strategy, of swallowing up these Eastern European countries to use as buffer states and to make their fall back position more secure. This is the same strategy used by Ivan hundreds of years ago and it is based on geography not technology. With all of today's high tech weapons and atomic weapons why it this centuries old strategy still needed for Russian territorial security?
We have two guides to politics. History and geography. To understand geo-politics in the world right now you must deeply understand both and also always ask cui bono, to whose benefit.
Interesting post but do you have a prediction about the world to go with your point?
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Ellis Dee
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Re: Invasion of Greek Island of Lesbos by Syrian Refugees [Re: TheBrazilian]
#22212813 - 09/09/15 03:34 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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TheBrazilian said: Interesting post but do you have a prediction about the world to go with your point?
In the Russian example I do. Russia will use various tactice to keep its neighboring bufferer countries under its control or at least beaten down so as to pose no threat. This includes sowing discord and minority violence in order that they can manage the chaos. This is a tried and true imperial strategy. Put a minority in power and support them so that they are reliant on the outside power to maintain authority. Managing chaos is also far less expensive than maintaining an outright military presence. The British managed India by maintaining various balances of power for years in their imperial days.
Geography will continue to dictate destiny and the strategies used for every geo-political goal. The best guide to the future is the past. What worked before will at least be tried again, because its tried and true..
-------------------- "If the foundations be destroyed, what can the righteous do."-King Solomon And there was war in heaven: Michael and his angels fought against the dragon; and the dragon fought and his angels,
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TheBrazilian
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Re: Invasion of Greek Island of Lesbos by Syrian Refugees [Re: Ellis Dee]
#22212857 - 09/09/15 03:45 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Ellis Dee said:
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TheBrazilian said: Interesting post but do you have a prediction about the world to go with your point?
In the Russian example I do. Russia will use various tactice to keep its neighboring bufferer countries under its control or at least beaten down so as to pose no threat. This includes sowing discord and minority violence in order that they can manage the chaos. This is a tried and true imperial strategy. Put a minority in power and support them so that they are reliant on the outside power to maintain authority. Managing chaos is also far less expensive than maintaining an outright military presence. The British managed India by maintaining various balances of power for years in their imperial days.
Geography will continue to dictate destiny and the strategies used for every geo-political goal. The best guide to the future is the past. What worked before will at least be tried again, because its tried and true..
I pretty much agree but the economy also dictates power and influence and their economy sucks. Sure they have a strangle hold over Belarus but what is going to happen once that dictator gets overthrown? Russia will continue to have influence over the Armenia's and Belarus's of the world but I question it reaching much farther than that. Even a country like Azerbaijan is being welcomed into the west now. But anyways since you are a big geography guy what do you make of the high muslim population and refugees moving into europe? They are going to the land of milk and honey but how much is left? Can two different cultures merge? I'm skeptical.
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Ezuma
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Re: Invasion of Greek Island of Lesbos by Syrian Refugees [Re: Ellis Dee]
#22212858 - 09/09/15 03:46 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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I believe you're right about the example you described though, with Russia and the near future.
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Ellis Dee
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Re: Invasion of Greek Island of Lesbos by Syrian Refugees [Re: TheBrazilian]
#22212987 - 09/09/15 04:12 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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TheBrazilian said: I pretty much agree but the economy also dictates power and influence and their economy sucks. Sure they have a strangle hold over Belarus but what is going to happen once that dictator gets overthrown? Russia will continue to have influence over the Armenia's and Belarus's of the world but I question it reaching much farther than that. Even a country like Azerbaijan is being welcomed into the west now. But anyways since you are a big geography guy what do you make of the high muslim population and refugees moving into europe? They are going to the land of milk and honey but how much is left? Can two different cultures merge? I'm skeptical.
Even if Russian control never goes beyond the Armenia's and Belurus's they will be pretty secure. The Moscow region is simply indefensible and so they believe that their security lies in maintaining a large buffer area. The ethnic cleansings and relocations of ethnic Russians into buffer state areas carried out under Stalin also ensured that if the Soviet Union ever collapsed that chaos would ensue in those border countries maintaining a shield around Russia. As a result now many of those countries have horrible ethnic conflicts and very unstable governments. This benefits Russia in managing those conflicts to their own ends. It always ensures that some faction in the buffer countries will reach out to Moscow for support, and Moscow will always be glad to play the savior role and bring stability. Russia plays these factions against each other the way a musician plays a fiddle.
Its good that you bring up Azerbaijan, which is coveted by the west for its oil. That's what the battle of Stalingrad was about, control of Baku. Thats why when the NAZI generals made a cake of the eastern front Hitler sliced out Baku for himself. Their plan failed because of the enourmous sacrafices of 800,000 Azerbaijanis who fought against NAZI Germany, of whom 400,000 dies in battle. That is almost as many deaths as the USA took in WW2 but in a country with only 3 million total people.
The potential for a Caspian railroad to create a new trade route cutting Russia out of the picture is perhaps the biggest threat to Russian interests coming out of the caucasus gateway. Russia will do everything in its power to prevent this and they will probably succeed. Countries like Azerbaijan saw how unable NATO was to defend Goergia in their war with Russia and it sent a message. Add to the fear how reliant they are on Russia for trade and for maintaining the power balances and I think Russia maintains more or less the status quo for a long time. There are no happy endings involvd here, only the proverbial Russian endings.
-------------------- "If the foundations be destroyed, what can the righteous do."-King Solomon And there was war in heaven: Michael and his angels fought against the dragon; and the dragon fought and his angels,
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Hobozen


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Re: Invasion of Greek Island of Lesbos by Syrian Refugees [Re: Ellis Dee] 2
#22213354 - 09/09/15 05:22 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Ezuma
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Re: Invasion of Greek Island of Lesbos by Syrian Refugees [Re: Hobozen]
#22213547 - 09/09/15 05:55 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Good video. I feel for any legitimate refugees but frankly I care more about Europe. To me the middle east is pretty much a write off
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