|
Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
|
Denver Housing Woes…
#22165084 - 08/30/15 02:47 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
When I decided to go to school, I picked Colorado for reasons that mostly related to convenience, I lived in a neighboring state at the time, so Colorado was a way for me to start over in a new place, but still remain close to family.
I got a job in Denver last year and have been enjoying the work, and the city… But fucking hell, housing is skyrocketing in this city. Somehow I ended it up in one of two cities in the entire country that not only has fully recovered since the housing bubble of 2008/2009, but has soared right past those prices into record breaking home prices.
I don’t know anything about housing; and don’t care to invest in it. I just want to buy a modest house in a decent school district for my daughter to attend school. We have always subscribed to a modest lifestyle, and believe in living very comfortably within our means. But right now I am left with a choice; buy a house that stretches our budget right now, for fear that housing is just going to go up and up. Or wait it out and see if this is another bubble, which seems fairly unlikely given how recent the last one hit.
With that said, the situation here is eerily reminiscent of the last housing bubble, banks are lending some of the riskier loans again, even caving-in on criteria required for Jumbo Loans (Since most of the housing here is over 400k at this point…), construction projects are everywhere, suspicious signs are up on street posts promising rewarding careers in real estate. I guess im just a little suspicious by the growth.. Or maybe I am just hoping this is another bubble so that one day prices will fall, and I can afford a reasonable property in the Denver area…
Anyone understand what’s going on with Denver?
|
ashfiken
TotalCrazyasshole


Registered: 09/06/06
Posts: 3,073
Loc: SCranton
Last seen: 12 minutes, 37 seconds
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: Mojo]
#22167801 - 08/31/15 05:34 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
It's a hip place. And marijuana is legal there. Expect housing in this area to stay high for a bit. Maybe think about outside Denver and commute? I'd love to be anywhere in CO, but I know that Denver has gotta be.pricey.
Cheers
-------------------- hmm... "I'm naked and fearless... And my fear is naked." "life isn't worth living without the threat of death" "I got my plans in a ziploc bag, let's see how unproductive we can be" "nobody lives their lives fully except for bull fighters" My Trade List
|
All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
Last seen: 7 months, 5 days
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: ashfiken]
#22170663 - 08/31/15 07:01 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
My buddy somehow snagged a sweet duplex around 12th and Kalamath for $1000/month a couple years ago. That price is now pretty much non-existant in that area. I would look in the Mexican neighborhoods west of the Highlands--Sloan's lake area. I have several friends over there and it is affordable. The small niche just west of 14th and Colorado is also an option. Park Hill, City Park West, and Capitol Hill are now too high to actually live in. The rent in Denver is frankly pretty bizarre. Hubs far as fuck east from downtown are just as high as places much closer. On the flip side, apartment building construction is exploding which should drive down rental prices in the longer term. The fact is, the weed boom put Colorado on the map for the rest of the country and they looked into it and realized Colorado is the shit. However, the turnover of people in Colorado is, I would wager, much higher than other metro areas as people tend to leave rather quickly for somewhere else. People are paying over market price for houses all over the metro area. Ultimately, traffic is going to get a lot worse in the short term which could put a damper on the Denver glow due to its utterly inadequate roadway system. In addition, the school system in Denver remains close to terrible and the job market questionable at best.
The markets are teetering on the edge of oblivion again and I am very skeptical that the 08 crash solved any actual systemic problems. I'm going to wait a couple years before looking at buying to see how the housing market reacts to the ubiquitous legalization of marijuana in other states and the cooling of Denver's trendiness.
--------------------
"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
|
The "solution" to the 08 crash was to print massive amounts of money all over the world. China is the poster child of debt and misuse of capital to produce "growth". Wait 2 years, and you won't believe house prices dropped that much. I sold 1 house at the peak in 05 and 2 houses at the peak in 15. The shadow foreclosures are coming out of the shadows now as the banks prepare for the crash. JPM knows. Look at the bank layoffs worldwide, and let that be your poker "tell".
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
|
|
I hear you and am in a similar situation. We have a young daughter we want to have a stable place to raise with decent schools. The trouble is I live in an expensive city where the average home is 350k. One needs to make well over 100k a year to afford that and the average yearly wage for a male in my city is 35k...
I wouldn't be surprised if the prices came crashing down, and I hope they do. But I honestly don't think it will happen. Its very expensive to build the modern expectation for a house. The cost of land, development and resources is high and the whole world wants a piece of that. There is simply not enough resources to quench the average american's thirst for resources and luxury. I expect home prices will continue to rise and home ownership will be a luxury for the rich. The notion that the middle class can afford a large three bedroom home was never well founded.
|
Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: DieCommie]
#22212718 - 09/09/15 03:13 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
The median price of a home in Denver is roughly $350,000, home prices have gone up 10 - 11% per year for almost three years now. If this trend continues for another three years, we will be looking at a median home price closer to half a million. The median household income in Denver is ~$60,000... Not real high, so where the hell are all these rich people going to come from? And if investors are buying them all up, it still takes a high income to rent a half million dollar home, I feel like there's got to be a breaking point somewhere. And hopefully soon...
|
DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: Mojo]
#22213025 - 09/09/15 04:19 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
I often wonder where all the rich people come from and what they do... They are out there. The regular people commute and/or live in apartments.
Maybe you are right and it will break. Im just going to keep renting until house prices collapse or I get priced out of my city.
|
Big Bear
Earf Child



Registered: 06/11/14
Posts: 5,415
Loc: In love, On time
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: Mojo]
#22214944 - 09/09/15 11:36 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
I highly doubt it will break any time soon. Denver is expanding at a rate that is faster than its infrastructure can support. There aren't enough houses. The value is not going down any time soon.
I suggest looking up north near FoCo. At least it's not a traffic filled cluster fuck 24/7/365. Shit maybe even the western slope. You could make the commute for the time being (would suck ass) but then could work on finding a new job and settling down up there. The plus side is that FoCo is growing too so I'd imagine the value of your home would climb tremendously over the next ten years assuming no crazy financial collapse. You could focus on putting as much towards it as possible then perhaps sell it for a really great price, then use the proceeds to put towards a house somewhere else where you could get a lot of bang from that buck.
I moved out here for work and to get out of the shithole I lived in prior, but I can't imagine how i'd support myself here if I didn't grow and have the career I do.
Good luck
-------------------- Need help growing? Ask AMU for hassle free answers. Every year is getting shorter, never seem to find the time...
|
Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: Big Bear]
#22216183 - 09/10/15 09:56 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
I commuted to Denver from FoCO for three months and I was ready to kill myself.. FoCO is like a small paradise compared to the big city, but when you are spending three to four hours of your day commuting its not like you have any time to enjoy the city you actually live in anyway. I swore I would never commute again, I live 6 miles from work and my happiness has improved ten fold. But If my rent keeps going up, I am starting to feel like it's a bad financial decision to stay where I am at now.. Hence, me looking into buying.. I guess im just a little sad, I feel like I missed my opportunity to live here.. I have a coworker that bought a place in LoDo in 2005 for $250k, his place recently appraised for over $800k and its not even a big house..
In my particular line of work, most jobs are actually outside of city centers, I felt fairly lucky to have landed a job in the city.. I could likely find a job that pays a little more in an area where the median price of a home is less than half of Denver. This would likely require a move out of Colorado... The thing is my current job is really lax, no drug tests, good money, and there's lots of entertainment options in the city... I just need to decide if the premium I pay is worth it.. And its turning out to be a really hard decision..
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,419
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 24 minutes
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: DieCommie]
#22216221 - 09/10/15 10:09 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
DieCommie said: I often wonder where all the rich people come from and what they do... They are out there. The regular people commute and/or live in apartments.
The disparity is that rich people tend to own several properties at any given time, both outright as well as through collective investments such as TIC's and limited partnerships, for managed income. As the rich have become richer, they have diversified their wealth through real estate in a big way. The real estate market has also seen a big surge in foreign buyers, particularly from China, as Chinese multi-millionaires and billionaires have a strong desire to move their assets outside of China, where their government can't meddle in their affairs.
Quote:
Chinese are now the biggest foreign buyers of U.S. housing. They poured $28.6 billion into properties in the past year, more than double the investment of number two, the Canadians, according to the National Association of Realtors. They are seeking top schools for their children, better health care, fresh air and a safe haven for their cash amid economic uncertainty at home.
Source
The article where I grabbed the above quote also notes that China's stock market crash may reduce their foreign investment activity in real estate. I reckon a crash here at home would have a similar effect. On the other hand, employment opportunities in high density areas (i.e. big cities like Denver, Los Angeles, San Fran, New York, et al) will continue to drive population growth which will continue to put upward pressure on housing prices. Hard to say how much real estate values would pull back in those scenarios, and if those scenarios don't manifest, there likely will not be any pullback since, at least here in Los Angeles, there is a shortage of housing given the amount of people that want to live (and continue to move) here.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: geokills]
#22216447 - 09/10/15 11:17 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Geo,
Considering the large number of properties that were scooped up by investors over the years since the crash, it may fundamentally change real estate in America moving forward. Historic graphs of steady home appreciation seem to have little relation to today's housing markets.. I feel like investors parking cash in American real estate could potentially lead to more volatility in the housing market moving forward. What do you think of this line of thinking?
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: Mojo]
#22216515 - 09/10/15 11:34 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Mojo said: Geo,
Considering the large number of properties that were scooped up by investors over the years since the crash, it may fundamentally change real estate in America moving forward. Historic graphs of steady home appreciation seem to have little relation to today's housing markets.. I feel like investors parking cash in American real estate could potentially lead to more volatility in the housing market moving forward. What do you think of this line of thinking?
If you look at the underlying demographics for housing in general going forward, it's not good. You have the "Taco Tuesday" baby boomer retirement house push and some tech bubble money and apparently weed bubble kush money in CO. Plus, isn't CO some sort of HQ for the elite when it all goes down?
Speaking of going down, yes, the number of foreign investors, and hedge funds invested in real estate is quite high. This is also in a time period when the shadow foreclosures are starting to show up more. Inventories of unsold homes is increasing as prices don't go up.
What's next? Obviously, prices start going down. CA in particular is vulnerable as the Asian foolhardy "buy it all the way up" investors for lack of a better word are ready to lose big $$ in the USA as well as their homeland.
We are heading into some seriously scary times in relation to China and it won't end well. The debt they have amassed in the last 5 years vs. GDP is amazing. The growth "engine" is more debt to build more roads to empty cities. Their solution to bring the "growth rate" back up to 7% was to build at a 10% rate every year! Genius!
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,419
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 1 hour, 24 minutes
|
Re: Denver Housing Woes… [Re: Mojo]
#22216758 - 09/10/15 12:43 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
|
|
Perhaps, as with most things that go up quickly, they can just as well come down quickly. However with interest rates so low and, in my opinion, unlikely to move appreciably higher for the foreseeable future, it seems that the carrying cost for these investment properties would be fairly low.
Personally, I would have a hard time buying in this market. I live in Los Angeles and our home value is the highest it's ever been. As a result, we have been thinking about selling and moving to a less expensive market on the central Californian coast. But if you don't own your own home and you can afford one that you want to live in for the long haul, I wouldn't fault you for buying it! Prices will always fluctuate, but if you're living in the thing (as opposed to buying as an investment), home ownership is security.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
|