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InvisibleConfucian
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The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open!
    #22134324 - 08/24/15 07:32 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

I called it and timed it HERE 2 weeks ago. I bought puts on the SPY (make money if the S&P500 declines).

At that time the S&P500 was trading at 2100 points and I picked up a tiny amount of "puts" that predicted the S&P would hit 1990 points by October 16th.

Unfortunately I didn't have money in my account (poor) so only picked up 2 contracts ($200-worth).

Bought at $1.87...They are over $7 on Friday...They will probably be over $15 today...A 10X investment.

Have a nice day. The market is about to tumble.

https://www.google.com/finance?ei=fhzbVYHwLsaUmAGe37HIDQ


Edited by Confucian (08/24/15 07:32 AM)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22134333 - 08/24/15 07:36 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

SUUUUUCKS that you could only put a few 100 bucks in.

Get out in time!


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Asante]
    #22134360 - 08/24/15 07:44 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
SUUUUUCKS that you could only put a few 100 bucks in.

Get out in time!




Well, I've traded options before. And if your prediction is incorrect your investment goes straight to zero. You lose every penny. It's extremely high risk.

I could have put in $500. Shit, I probably could have done $1000. But at the time, calling for a 5.5% correction in 2 months (from 2100 points to 1990 points) seemed relatively risky. All it would take would be ONE DAY of the market going up and my investment would crash (options are like stocks on crack).

So I said, fuck it, the charts look like hell, let me put $200 in, and see what happens.

I got these at $1.87: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=spy151016p00199000


Edited by Confucian (08/24/15 07:46 AM)


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OfflinePatlal
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22134374 - 08/24/15 07:49 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Well, the Chinese stock market is has been plummeting for a week now. It's kinda obvious the the entire world will follow suit.

Any respectable investor that sees a major market crash abroad should have the common sense to know that in a few days the ripples will be felt at home.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Patlal]
    #22134555 - 08/24/15 08:52 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

The nature of a stock market crash is such that, people simply do not see it coming.  If they did, there would be no crash, just an orderly move lower.  The majority of traders get lulled into a false sense of complacency and don't realize a trend break until it is too late, often because they have been habituated to buying the dips, since recent memory has conditioned them to believe that it is a fail safe strategy.  Only when the pain cuts too deep (and it is difficult to know when "too deep" will manifest), is there a massive rush to the exists like we began to see late last week, and definitely witnessed this morning.  As I posted in my STOCKS thread over in Money Matters...

Quote:

geokills said:
Well that was an exciting opening.  Unfortunately, it was very difficult to participate, as I simply would not get filled on my buy orders this morning.  It seems like we've hit a short term low with today's massive gap down, and I would be looking towards the stocks that have been in strong uptrends and haven't really broken longer term support. $NFLX, $ULTA, $HD, $MO are a handful that come to mind just looking at my screen. For my money, I am sitting on my hands. I tried to get some fills this morning, but as many traders I speak with have also noted, market functionality has been, well, fairly non-functional. I don't want to get trapped in a position while this all settles out, so I'm sitting out. I mostly trade options though, and during this type of move the spreads are so wide that it really stacks the deck against you to be buying. Waiting for calmer waters before I dip my toe in, even if that means I miss some impressive snap backs (which I did).




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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: geokills]
    #22134619 - 08/24/15 09:17 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
The nature of a stock market crash is such that, people simply do not see it coming.  If they did, there would be no crash, just an orderly move lower.  The majority of traders get lulled into a false sense of complacency and don't realize a trend break until it is too late, often because they have been habituated to buying the dips, since recent memory has conditioned them to believe that it is a fail safe strategy.  Only when the pain cuts too deep (and it is difficult to know when "too deep" will manifest), is there a massive rush to the exists like we began to see late last week, and definitely witnessed this morning.  As I posted in my STOCKS thread over in Money Matters...

Quote:

geokills said:
Well that was an exciting opening.  Unfortunately, it was very difficult to participate, as I simply would not get filled on my buy orders this morning.  It seems like we've hit a short term low with today's massive gap down, and I would be looking towards the stocks that have been in strong uptrends and haven't really broken longer term support. $NFLX, $ULTA, $HD, $MO are a handful that come to mind just looking at my screen. For my money, I am sitting on my hands. I tried to get some fills this morning, but as many traders I speak with have also noted, market functionality has been, well, fairly non-functional. I don't want to get trapped in a position while this all settles out, so I'm sitting out. I mostly trade options though, and during this type of move the spreads are so wide that it really stacks the deck against you to be buying. Waiting for calmer waters before I dip my toe in, even if that means I miss some impressive snap backs (which I did).







I was watching Netflix open at $88, dip to $86 by 9:31am, and recover back up to $102 by 10:30am.

$16 bounce in an hour. Would be nice to have gotten a few hundred shares at the lows today.

Regarding the SPY October 16th, 2015 puts, people are scooping up "lotteries" calling for a 30% or more correction in 2 months.

What do you make of this activity? Just pure lotteries?



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22134680 - 08/24/15 09:36 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Confucian said:
Regarding the SPY October 16th, 2015 puts, people are scooping up "lotteries" calling for a 30% or more correction in 2 months.

What do you make of this activity? Just pure lotteries?






It's impossible to say, with the data currently available to me, whether the volume in those low strike options on the SPY is due to the options being bought or sold.  I would expect however, that most of those options are being shorted to the market makers, as the implied volatility is so high that the options are way more expensive than logical reason would provide for under most market circumstances.  When implied volatility is high, the smart trade is to sell options, because even if price on the underlying issue doesn't budge, market stabilization will lower implied volatility and thus bleed out from the price of the option very quickly.  So in this case, the trades you are seeing are not necessarily a lottery ticket at all, but a high probability trade to take in option premium.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Asante]
    #22134952 - 08/24/15 10:47 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
SUUUUUCKS that you could only put a few 100 bucks in.

Get out in time!




It's actually my brother's account. We went half on it. And he took off to Portugal for 2 weeks yesterday.

They hit $19 per contract in the morning. Back down to $9 now though!

Since we only have $200 worth we'll probably hold a while longer, and see if it shoots up to like $30 to $40...


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22146771 - 08/26/15 02:09 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

How are those put options doing? :lol:


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: koods]
    #22146928 - 08/26/15 02:43 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
How are those put options doing? :lol:




Pretty good. From $1.87 (when I bought them 2 weeks ago) to $9.21 today. Only up 400%. I basically gave my brother $100 who has an options account and he got 1 contract which we went half on ($90 each). He's out of the country, for all I know he sold them. They were at $19 for a quick second on Monday but closed around $13ish. Today down to $9.21.

Anyways, why the bizarre bump out of nowhere? Obviously you think one bounce (even though all indices are down for the week) means we'll keep going up forever as has been the case the last 6 years. Guess what, the economy moves in cycles. What goes up will come right back down. Long overdue. There was a recession in 2001 and again in 2008 and now it is 7.5 years later (guess what that means?).

If I make a trade it's strictly based on the charts. And they look horrific. That's why I was able to see this coming with near perfect timing (the Dow Jones was at 17,337 when I saw the writing on the wall. today it is 16,285).

Also, you realize today is the first positive gain in 7 trading days. The last positive day was August 17th.


Edited by Confucian (08/26/15 03:31 PM)


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22147125 - 08/26/15 03:16 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

How does a put option rise when the underlying equity or index rises so sharply.

Come on all the near term puts lost 40-80% of their value today.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: koods]
    #22147184 - 08/26/15 03:26 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
How does a put option rise when the underlying equity or index rises so sharply.

Come on all the near term puts lost 40-80% of their value today.




You must have misinterpreted what I said. They were bought @ $1.87 weeks ago when the Dow was still around 17,500 points...Not today (I edited last post to clarify).

On Monday the Dow dropped 1000 points at the open. This is when I said they reached $19 momentarily, however, they closed on Monday around $13 or so.

Today, Wednesday, they were down 30% or so, to $9.xx.

As long as the S and P stays below 1990 I am gonna at least double my measley $100 that I don't care about.

If you care to check their value over the next couple months before they expire (they will go to zero if SPY is higher than $199..And I am ok with that.) here is the link http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=spy151016p00199000


Edited by Confucian (08/26/15 03:32 PM)


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Invisiblethescientist
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22149647 - 08/27/15 12:38 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

screen shot or gtfo


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OfflineSoulidarity
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: thescientist]
    #22149787 - 08/27/15 02:19 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Get your money ready and buy up once the crash is over with. Ride the wave right back up again :thumbup:


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OfflineSoulidarity
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Soulidarity]
    #22149790 - 08/27/15 02:20 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

If the USD starts to crash im going go on a spending spree when all the prices start dropping


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OfflineSoulidarity
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Soulidarity]
    #22149793 - 08/27/15 02:23 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Shares and stocks in general should be a long term thing IMO, 5-7 year minimum term. Short term speculative stocks is pretty much just betting


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Offlinelowbrow
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22149814 - 08/27/15 02:39 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Confucian said:
I called it and timed it HERE 2 weeks ago. I bought puts on the SPY (make money if the S&P500 declines).

At that time the S&P500 was trading at 2100 points and I picked up a tiny amount of "puts" that predicted the S&P would hit 1990 points by October 16th.

Unfortunately I didn't have money in my account (poor) so only picked up 2 contracts ($200-worth).

Bought at $1.87...They are over $7 on Friday...They will probably be over $15 today...A 10X investment.

Have a nice day. The market is about to tumble.

https://www.google.com/finance?ei=fhzbVYHwLsaUmAGe37HIDQ



What's this got to do with Christianity?


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Soulidarity]
    #22149966 - 08/27/15 05:50 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Soulidarity said:
If the USD starts to crash im going go on a spending spree when all the prices start dropping




I'm not an economics expert, but I don't think that's always true. For instance, if the dollar declines, the price of goods could very well go up. Look at Nigeria or some of those countries where the money ain't shit.

I think the US has some checks and balances which would limit inflation, but I don't think it's always true that goods are discounted.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: thescientist]
    #22149979 - 08/27/15 06:10 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

thescientist said:
screen shot or gtfo




Screen shot of what? I bought the lowest amount possible (1 contract @ $1.87).

Options move fast as hell. It doubled within 2 days (went to $3.50s), then went back to $1.90s, then increased 10-fold over the next week. It was $19 Monday, $9 Wednesday, and it's looking like it will be in the $5-$7 range today unless @ 8:30am when GDP and jobless claims are released the numbers are worse than expected.


Edited by Confucian (08/27/15 06:12 AM)


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OfflineTurtletotem
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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Confucian]
    #22149995 - 08/27/15 06:23 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Lekker voor ze!


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Re: The Dow Jones is DECLINING BY 800 POINTS minutes before the open! [Re: Turtletotem] * 1
    #22150105 - 08/27/15 07:16 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Kutjebef!


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