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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Investing in WWIII
    #22125829 - 08/22/15 07:47 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

To those worried about whether The Fed raises interest rates 1/4% after years of hand wringing, and the havoc this will wreak after holding them at zero for years, fear not.

The world is heading into WWIII, and war is always good for the economy.  War in The Middle East is the logical "jump starter" for this floundering world wide economy.  First you have to destroy things like the oil fields and refineries and kill and injure a lot of people, but then you get to rebuild and that means construction jobs and Halliburton profits.

So, I'm thinking buy some Halliburton.

Even if we don't go to war Halliburton will be a good choice for the building and running of "fun" camps in CA after the water runs out.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22126607 - 08/22/15 12:09 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

they freeze market in world wars though?

I would buy the food companies unless this is a war of the future where its the market running as usual and immense profits deal making and productivity for the machine? I be saying buy into something like garmin, the gps makers/ smith n wessun ruger browning and all that, I'd buy optics stock like camera makers olympus with all their machine logistics tech and hospital tech, I wouldn't hessitate to own some municipal bonds and I would also buy into penny stock mines in ontario aswell as desalination plants but I dont think their are stocks for those, companies I would buy that are low could see everything maybe a company that makes camo clothes, Salt mines. DOW chemical.


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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Offlinesaenchai
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22126663 - 08/22/15 12:25 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Capital preservation seems more important than aggressive betting in what seems to be the beginning of at least a bearish market if not the eventually severe crash some people expect. Oil may be crashing even lower the next few years. What you're proposing could surely pay off well in some scenarios and play out not so well in others.

I heard that if you're going to buy stocks right now, it may be a good idea to hedge five to twenty percent in gold bullion or inverse etfs to absorb your losses and maybe even gain in the event of a crash. I have to agree about war coming soon but I can't imagine how it will play out or with whom and what it will affect. Too many variables lol things are way shifty right now.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22127259 - 08/22/15 02:22 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

TravelerOfSorts said:
they freeze market in world wars though?

I would buy the food companies unless this is a war of the future where its the market running as usual and immense profits deal making and productivity for the machine? I be saying buy into something like garmin, the gps makers/ smith n wessun ruger browning and all that, I'd buy optics stock like camera makers olympus with all their machine logistics tech and hospital tech, I wouldn't hessitate to own some municipal bonds and I would also buy into penny stock mines in ontario aswell as desalination plants but I dont think their are stocks for those, companies I would buy that are low could see everything maybe a company that makes camo clothes, Salt mines. DOW chemical.




If there's a war in the Middle East, oil will immediately go back to 60.  This will certainly benefit the oil companies.

Muni bonds?  Just say no. 

Desalination/water technology investments? Not so much WWIII but water is in fact going to be the next oil.  Smart water meters that can control how much and when the drought ridden hangers on in CA get to flush, for example.  "If it's yellow, let it mellow, if it's brown, you get to flush it down once a day."


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: saenchai]
    #22127306 - 08/22/15 02:32 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

saenchai said:
Capital preservation seems more important than aggressive betting in what seems to be the beginning of at least a bearish market if not the eventually severe crash some people expect. Oil may be crashing even lower the next few years. What you're proposing could surely pay off well in some scenarios and play out not so well in others.

I heard that if you're going to buy stocks right now, it may be a good idea to hedge five to twenty percent in gold bullion or inverse etfs to absorb your losses and maybe even gain in the event of a crash. I have to agree about war coming soon but I can't imagine how it will play out or with whom and what it will affect. Too many variables lol things are way shifty right now.




Just as the talking heads have advised us that "all is well in the US" up until about last week, these same heads keep now touting 30 oil after touting that it would hold at 60 and be back to 80 by year end. 

Gold is a shitty investment, it's not a hedge against anything and is of no real value other than kind of maintaining value against a declining dollar.  It's funny how much the gold bugs can't even begin to read a chart.  Sure it bounced off of 1090 as predicted but it will hit 1100 again way before 1200 and probably go below 1000 as well.  It's a shiny pretty metal.  I notice folks don't heat their houses or drive their cars filled up with gold.  Oil can certainly keep dropping for a while, but if war breaks out oil will spike, and soon.  The petrodollar is dead without Iran, John Kerry even came out and said it.  The PTB need higher oil, and need war to stoke this economy.  What other "scenario" do you see playing out?

As to who it affects, it affects virtually everyone.  What happens when the bombs start dropping here in the states, when people can't even bear the prospects of a stinking 1/4% rise in short term interest rates?  How can we get the petrodollar back and protect the USD without taking over the Middle East for good?


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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Offlinesaenchai
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22127488 - 08/22/15 03:13 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

I am of the opinion that gold's price has been manipulated but fair enough. Gold's real value is debatable but I do think it will shoot up as different fiat currencies collapse. I do agree that the invasion of Iran is a possibility.

I consider the possibility that global infrastructure may fail in some ways when the global recession takes hold fully causing an inability to distribute goods like oil. It may even fail from an emp attack, hacking attack, or sun flare damage. The implications of that could render a lot of what we're talking about irrelevant. I'm not so sure where bombs will be dropped if any. There are so many potential outcomes from here and forces at work that you can't really even try to piece together a likely outcome. Even the insiders and the elite who move the chess pieces around the board don't know what's going to happen after they play their moves. No telling how everyone will react until it happens. If you take that position I hope it pays off for you.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: saenchai]
    #22127585 - 08/22/15 03:40 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Gold's price is in fact manipulated, just as this economy and all the "indicators" is manipulated to appear that it is somehow recovering.  With gold however, I would contend that the real value won't become recognized UNTIL there is a gold backed currency, and then "they" (the IMF/World Bank/BIS probably will want to hold all the gold after "they" seize it during the martial law/rounding up of dissidents and collection of firearms which comes well before the new one world gold backed IMF SDR based currency gets handed out by the UN peacekeeping forces.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22129087 - 08/22/15 11:09 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

War is very pre 21st century (with exceptions like the Iraq War, Syrian Civil War, etc.). You should really check out Steven Pinker's ¨The Better Angels of Our Nature¨ about how peaceful modern society is compared to anytime in the past. There just isn't going to be 2 or 3 big global powers declaring war against each other any more...ever.

As far as US involvement in the Middle East, Obama's strategy for a long time now has been to sit on the sidelines and let those countries in the Middle East step up.

This is partly why we need to normalize relations with Iran. They are the big Shiite power. They balance out the Sunni radicals in Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

Especially after the disaster that is Iraq. The US is not going to war anytime soon.


Edited by Confucian (08/22/15 11:11 PM)


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: Confucian]
    #22129760 - 08/23/15 07:11 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

I considered joining military this year.


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


Edited by TravelerOfSorts (08/23/15 10:15 AM)


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22129765 - 08/23/15 07:13 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Its hypathetical too confucian, u need to get on lunars scheme but more then stocks I'd want to participate in such a event I would buy lots of rain coats.


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: Confucian]
    #22130872 - 08/23/15 01:05 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Confucian said:
War is very pre 21st century (with exceptions like the Iraq War, Syrian Civil War, etc.). You should really check out Steven Pinker's ¨The Better Angels of Our Nature¨ about how peaceful modern society is compared to anytime in the past. There just isn't going to be 2 or 3 big global powers declaring war against each other any more...ever.

As far as US involvement in the Middle East, Obama's strategy for a long time now has been to sit on the sidelines and let those countries in the Middle East step up.

This is partly why we need to normalize relations with Iran. They are the big Shiite power. They balance out the Sunni radicals in Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

Especially after the disaster that is Iraq. The US is not going to war anytime soon.




The US/Obama recently admitted to funding and training ISIS.  People need to listen when their leader speaks.  Obama is in no way sitting on the sidelines and Syria is a big part of the plan.  Iraq has also recently seen "boots on the ground".  The Ukraine is a powder keg.  China and Russia and Brics represent the threat to the petrodollar USD in a big way.

I checked out that book and it's reviews on Amazon.  Based on our military presence throughout the world and the ongoing escalations, I don't think it holds much water.  Ancient man going further back than the author did were likely much less "violent" towards other men.  They were more interested in hunting food and surviving, and the hunting went better with some other guys as they tag teamed some mastodon or buffalo on their way to their next meal.  Religion and power hungry governments was the real reason for the escalation in violence, although the agricultural growth also contributed.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: Confucian]
    #22131216 - 08/23/15 02:49 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

>As far as US involvement in the Middle East, Obama's strategy for a long time now has been to sit on the sidelines and let those countries in the Middle East step up.

Maybe on your planet but here on earth, obumble has been a war monger.

Yes, gold will shoot up with instability as will bitcoin. With fiat currencies dropping like mad, there is no other outcome even though the dollar has gone up in the short term. Once obumble has been kicked to the curb and a rational president put in his place, things will improve but I still see a worldwide economic collapse before things get better.

War helps no one, we don't have the money to pay for it unless we repudiate our debts either outright or via qe inspired inflation. I laugh at the fools telling us the fed will jack up interest rates. They will do no such thing. It would push the dollar even higher and put more misery on the third world and china. If they did even a token .1% rise I will be surprised.

Does anyone believe china will grow by 7% this year. Lol, but that's what the talking heads are telling us.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22131570 - 08/23/15 04:08 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

The "thing" that you don't seem to understand, is that this is a credit crisis, a liquidity crisis, and a debt crisis, but that really doesn't equate to gold going up.  In fact, it just keep going down the past years in spite of the ongoing printing press and devaluation of currencies.  So much for protection against inflation.  Geopolitical turmoil doesn't seem to be having much of an effect either.

This collapse is the unwinding of all this debt that can't happen orderly, or may not happen at all.  I really think it's that bad this time that we could be in for banking holidays and a major reset/taking of money.  Gold and silver, while still tangible assets and "theoretically" worth a lot, won't mean much if the system gets frozen.

War is the only thing I can see driving up inflation in a way that affects the average person more than we have been seeing.  The funny money has no meaningful inflation affect because it's not sloshing around in the economy. In fact, the economy is contracting.

China is contracting as well.  They are no longer "growing", they are wallowing in bloated debt and with an absolutely monstrous shadow banking situation with dire implications. 7% a year?  No Freaking Way.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22132173 - 08/23/15 06:05 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Of course credit has something to do with it, a lot to do with it. But what is the credit in terms of? Its in fiat currency. This kills small countries who borrow in dollars, convert it into their own money but have to pay back in dollars. If the dollar had gone down instead of their own currency they would be in good shape but the opposite is true.

QE does indeed factor into it and will in time create massive inflation as I said. The fact it hasn't happened yet is simply because the can keeps getting kicked further down the road but there is a limit to that. Every dollar, yuan, yen, euro, etc that is created out of nothing must be accounted for. Part of the reason the dollar has not dropped much is because a lot of the qe went into the stock market

There is no limit on how many dollars, euros, yen and so on that can be printed or created electronically. There is a definite limit on how much gold is available and how much is being mined each year. Gold kept stable for years and then started taking off in the early 2000's. It went from 300 to 1900 and now at 1100+. Silver too has had a ride.

Speaking of debt, we have an unpayable debt of some 18T that has to be accounted for some day. The only way to pay it is to let the dollar devalue which is coming. You can believe the fed will raise rates if you want to but they will not do that. It would kill us, and many other countries too. All hell will break loose fairly soon no matter what and fiat is not going to come out on top. Commodities will, including gold and silver.

I have too much in cash, I'm just not sure what to put it in.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Offlineqman
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22132542 - 08/23/15 07:36 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
The "thing" that you don't seem to understand, is that this is a credit crisis, a liquidity crisis, and a debt crisis, but that really doesn't equate to gold going up.  In fact, it just keep going down the past years in spite of the ongoing printing press and devaluation of currencies.  So much for protection against inflation.  Geopolitical turmoil doesn't seem to be having much of an effect either.

This collapse is the unwinding of all this debt that can't happen orderly, or may not happen at all.  I really think it's that bad this time that we could be in for banking holidays and a major reset/taking of money.  Gold and silver, while still tangible assets and "theoretically" worth a lot, won't mean much if the system gets frozen.

War is the only thing I can see driving up inflation in a way that affects the average person more than we have been seeing.  The funny money has no meaningful inflation affect because it's not sloshing around in the economy. In fact, the economy is contracting.

China is contracting as well.  They are no longer "growing", they are wallowing in bloated debt and with an absolutely monstrous shadow banking situation with dire implications. 7% a year?  No Freaking Way.




"so much for protection against inflation"

There is no inflation in developed economies, gold only provides protection against producer price inflation, not consumer inflation. Commodities have been crushed the past 4 years and wages have also stayed flat, that's not a good environment for gold.

The Fed buying MBS's is not inflationary, that money never entered the economy, people got fooled into thinking QE was opening up "the printing press", it wasn't.

Debt is deflationary in nature, that's not going to change anytime soon.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: qman]
    #22132757 - 08/23/15 08:35 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

>The Fed buying MBS's is not inflationary, that money never entered the economy, people got fooled into thinking QE was opening up "the printing press", it wasn't.

Where did it go then?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22132886 - 08/23/15 09:03 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
>The Fed buying MBS's is not inflationary, that money never entered the economy, people got fooled into thinking QE was opening up "the printing press", it wasn't.

Where did it go then?




The banks took that money and cleansed their insolvent balance sheets, in theory they were suppose to extend that new credit availability into the private sector, that never happened (big surprise).

It's a great deal for the banks, make bad loans and then get 100% back from the Fed for a asset now worth 50% from the original value.  Many banks took the new credit and financed corporate share buybacks, again the money stay in Wall Street and never hit main street.

Yes, the Fed also did buy around $1.5 trillion of T-Bonds over the past 6-7 years, but in reality how much is that in a $60 trillion per year global economy, not much.


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Re: Investing in WWIII [Re: qman]
    #22133846 - 08/24/15 03:50 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Around here my family works for Halliburton or is ex-military gone to other oil services...

If your considering the beginning of WWIII is a middle east conflict,,, how is this different than the last 60-80 years? Before the U.S. it was Britain and Europe, they are in the same financial situation, so it must not have worked for them.

War will not promote long term growth for an economy... China is already the peasant class workforce supplying cheap goods. what exactly are we going to rebuild the middle east into? Why? Their workforce is to small, and their land is divided among too many countries.  Do we really want to re-distribute that temporarily stimulated wealth to them?

Our rich are to busy buying up their own stock grasping on to their own egos! What will support our entire middle east war? The BRIC? The IMF? Any fiat currency? (u must be joking)...

There's just too many people, too many mouths to feed, percent population rise is no longer going up at a high rate.  This means there will not be enough spenders/consumers to support the QE "infinite" ideal...

Still, at any rate, my family does invest in Halliburton, but not for the future, but to keep it going right now! They play the numbers game at the same time knowing it is failing miserably.

Somehow, they have hope in something else.

They tell me:
Invest in family!
Someone you can trust!


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