|
MagicMush123
moon person



Registered: 01/22/15
Posts: 5,101
Loc: Chinada
|
Vancouver housing market
#22101498 - 08/17/15 05:07 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Do you guys believe the Vancouver housing market is on a "bubble "? Or do you guys believe that what we are seeing is the new norm, and these prices are here to stay?
|
MagicMush123
moon person



Registered: 01/22/15
Posts: 5,101
Loc: Chinada
|
|
Do you guys think a correction in interest rates would result in foreclosures and bankruptcies?
|
DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
|
|
By "correction" you mean rise, right? Yes, I do. I'm not an expert, but if rates rise and then prices fall more people are upside down and trapped.
|
MagicMush123
moon person



Registered: 01/22/15
Posts: 5,101
Loc: Chinada
|
Re: Vancouver housing market [Re: DieCommie]
#22110081 - 08/19/15 07:47 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
I don't think anyone could have predicted how low interest rates are now, and yet people still borrowing and spending
|
DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
|
|
There is little reason to save....
|
Brian Jones
Club 27



Registered: 12/18/12
Posts: 12,342
Loc: attending Snake Church
Last seen: 7 hours, 37 minutes
|
Re: Vancouver housing market [Re: DieCommie]
#22117860 - 08/20/15 05:53 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
I have always wondered how much the high housing values in Vancouver were related to the city being filled with grow houses, and the usually very light penalties when they got caught.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
|
MagicMush123
moon person



Registered: 01/22/15
Posts: 5,101
Loc: Chinada
|
Re: Vancouver housing market [Re: DieCommie]
#22118332 - 08/20/15 07:58 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
If you don't care about the future
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
|
Quote:
MagicMush123 said: Do you guys believe the Vancouver housing market is on a "bubble "? Or do you guys believe that what we are seeing is the new norm, and these prices are here to stay?
Vancouver real estate is not only in a bubble, it's a big big one. There is no "new norm", and prices ARE going to drop.
Do you think interest rates will stay this low forever? Do you think all the subprime loans you aren't hearing about now but will in 2016 that "fail" (never should have been made) with just the first wave of declines will lead to more buying or more selling with more foreclosures.
Chinese investors, in particular, has bought a lot of overpriced real estate in Vancouver, San Francisco, etc, and they aren't the sharpest knives in the drawer, to say the least. Look back at Japan and how they bought all that overpriced real estate and their economy still sucks as a result. That's what China will be going through starting soon and ending in about 25 years.
The demographics for real estate really couldn't look much worse. The baby boomers will be downsizing as time goes on, and the millenials are not only out of work but are likely to remain so and huddled up with mom and dad and the three other slacker kids who went to college and had high hopes.
To buy real estate now would be a HUGE mistake. Just say no. 2018, maybe.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
Edited by LunarEclipse (08/22/15 07:30 AM)
|
DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
|
|
Quote:
LunarEclipse said: Do you think interest rates will stay this low forever?
Forever is a long time. How about low interest for the next 20 or 100 years?
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: Vancouver housing market [Re: DieCommie]
#22125931 - 08/22/15 08:26 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
DieCommie said:
Quote:
LunarEclipse said: Do you think interest rates will stay this low forever?
Forever is a long time. How about low interest for the next 20 or 100 years?
No way, Jose. "Buying" bonds from the printing of all that funny money? It isn't a Sustainable Development!
(extra points for incorporating Agenda 21 buzz words)
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
|
|
I don't know enough to make a claim on interest rates. Raising them sure seems to entail a lot of pain. Why can't they be low for 20 to 100 years? I don't understand the buzz words.
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: Vancouver housing market [Re: DieCommie] 1
#22126015 - 08/22/15 08:53 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
DieCommie said: I don't know enough to make a claim on interest rates. Raising them sure seems to entail a lot of pain. Why can't they be low for 20 to 100 years? I don't understand the buzz words. 
Back in the "old days", The Fed actually allowed market forces to dictate interest rates, instead of continually suppressing them.
Why can't the Ponzi Scheme continue for 20 to 100 years more under The Fed with zero rates and a bubbling economy? Because the bubbles burst, like they are starting to do now in the stock markets. The debt markets will be a "safe haven" for a while yet because people think they are safe. When they finally understand they aren't safe in T Bonds, then the selling will begin in earnest and The Fed won't be able to keep the lid on rates.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
|
|
Can you explain the specific a little more, I don't quite get it. The Fed offers bonds at a low rate and as a result the market rate is low. If those bonds are not safe, you mean there will be a default then right? When treasury bonds default then the interest rate will go up? Because the risk is higher? And you see a default happening within the next 20 years?
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: Vancouver housing market [Re: DieCommie]
#22130833 - 08/23/15 12:52 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
DieCommie said: Can you explain the specific a little more, I don't quite get it. The Fed offers bonds at a low rate and as a result the market rate is low. If those bonds are not safe, you mean there will be a default then right? When treasury bonds default then the interest rate will go up? Because the risk is higher? And you see a default happening within the next 20 years?
If you consider that the whole system of money is built on debt, and look at how much fresh debt has been created since the last "financial crisis", it's a lot more than ever. Meanwhile, as the debt amount has ballooned and The Fed's balance sheet along with it, the very low interest rates are the only thing making it even sort of "work". If interest rates go back to 4% on the 10 year T Bond from the current 2%,then the amount of interest becomes that much more because the principal amount is that much more.
Given the incredible leverage built into the financial system of banks and their derivatives, it can't last even 20 years without a meltdown. The USD and the implications of the death of the petrodollar really throw a monkey wrench into the "works" as well.
But, like any good Ponzi scheme, as long as the investors in the treasuries feel confident they will get their money back, the game goes on. The stock market drop actually benefits bonds, because the institutions have to put their money somewhere, and they still believe T bonds are their "safest" choice.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
Edited by LunarEclipse (08/23/15 12:55 PM)
|
MagicMush123
moon person



Registered: 01/22/15
Posts: 5,101
Loc: Chinada
|
|
Very interesting, in theory couldn't they artificially keep interest rates low to keep the system running and prevent bankruptcies and foreclosures for we don't have what happened in the states prior to 2010?
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
|
Quote:
MagicMush123 said: Very interesting, in theory couldn't they artificially keep interest rates low to keep the system running and prevent bankruptcies and foreclosures for we don't have what happened in the states prior to 2010?
It's not just theory, that's what's been happening. There is also a lot of shadow inventory of foreclosures, folks way behind on their mortgages, hedge funds buying large blocks of foreclosure houses and turning them into rentals, and low and even no money down on new purchases same as the last peak.
The Vancouver market with it's Asian exposure seems particularly vulnerable. China is a mess, and the Chinese have purchased a lot of real estate in Vancouver etc.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
MagicMush123
moon person



Registered: 01/22/15
Posts: 5,101
Loc: Chinada
|
|
If that's what's happening then wouldn't a foreclosure just get re bought, right away? Then how would prices lower?
|
|