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BoldAsLove
Pokemon Master


Registered: 03/10/11
Posts: 2,549
Loc: Kanto Region
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: KauaiOrca]
#22170193 - 08/31/15 05:30 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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KauaiOrca said:
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BoldAsLove said:
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KauaiOrca said: He'll take more votes from Hillary than from Bernie, IMHO. Biden is much closer to Hillary politically than he is to Bernie. Bernie is an anti establishment insurgent candidate and Biden and Hillary are ultimate establishment candidates. As such, he'll benefit.
I agree that what you say sounds intuitive, but if you look at that Iowa poll, it seems Biden draws from Sanders and Clinton supporters about equally, which is interesting to me and I'm trying to figure out why.
Biden hasn't even announced. The polls out right now aren't telling us much. Hillary's support is soft ... Bernie's isn't. When he announces he'll get a good 5-10 point pop. I'll bet at least 3/4 of that comes from Clinton.
That would be my guess to, but it's just based on intuition. The last data point I saw suggests that that might not actually be true. I believe the numbers with Biden in the race were 37-30 for Hillary and without Biden they were 43-35. I agree with your reasoning for why Biden would take more votes from Hillary, but those numbers suggest a roughly 50/50 split.
-------------------- DISCLAIMER: None of the ideas expressed above are actually mine. They are told to me by Luthor and Ferdinand , the five inch tall space aliens who live under my desk. In return for these ideas, I have given them permission to eat any dust bunnies they may find under there.
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 3,131
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: BoldAsLove]
#22170741 - 08/31/15 07:14 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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BoldAsLove said:
That would be my guess to, but it's just based on intuition. The last data point I saw suggests that that might not actually be true. I believe the numbers with Biden in the race were 37-30 for Hillary and without Biden they were 43-35. I agree with your reasoning for why Biden would take more votes from Hillary, but those numbers suggest a roughly 50/50 split.
The moment that democrats start to doubt that Hlllary can win because of the email scandal, her numbers will really take a hit. A lot of her support came from the fact that she had a commanding lead and people like being on a winning horse. When that narrative is shattered then her support will hit the exits fast because she simply isn't very popular. She'll have some loyal support from women, but a lot of people find the Clinton money game repulsive.
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
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Bigbadwooof
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Registered: 12/07/13
Posts: 13,347
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: KauaiOrca]
#22170778 - 08/31/15 07:22 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Part of me wonders if the DNC made the debates so late in the game because they were unsure of Hillary's capability to win, and they needed time to get another status quo candidate in he race if things started turning south. How many debates have the Republicans done so far? 3? 4? And democrats aren't doing the first one til fucking October?
-------------------- "It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti FARTS "There is no need for conspiracy where interests converge" - George Carlin Every one of you should see this video. "If you bombard the earth with photons for a while, it can emit a roadster" - Andrej Kerpathy
 
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 3,131
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: Bigbadwooof]
#22170792 - 08/31/15 07:26 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bigbadwooof said: Part of me wonders if the DNC made the debates so late in the game because they were unsure of Hillary's capability to win, and they needed time to get another status quo candidate in he race if things started turning south. How many debates have the Republicans done so far? 3? 4? And democrats aren't doing the first one til fucking October?
They did it because they didn't want this election cycle to chew up as much money in the primary phase as it did when Obama faced Hillary. If Hillary would have kept a big lead, she wouldn't have had to spend so much money on the primaries leaving a big war chest for the general election.
Looks like that strategy has gone to shit.
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
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BoldAsLove
Pokemon Master


Registered: 03/10/11
Posts: 2,549
Loc: Kanto Region
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: KauaiOrca]
#22171571 - 08/31/15 10:05 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
KauaiOrca said:
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BoldAsLove said:
That would be my guess to, but it's just based on intuition. The last data point I saw suggests that that might not actually be true. I believe the numbers with Biden in the race were 37-30 for Hillary and without Biden they were 43-35. I agree with your reasoning for why Biden would take more votes from Hillary, but those numbers suggest a roughly 50/50 split.
The moment that democrats start to doubt that Hlllary can win because of the email scandal, her numbers will really take a hit. A lot of her support came from the fact that she had a commanding lead and people like being on a winning horse. When that narrative is shattered then her support will hit the exits fast because she simply isn't very popular. She'll have some loyal support from women, but a lot of people find the Clinton money game repulsive.
Maybe, but the email scandal really isn't as big of a deal to voters as the media makes it out to be. I think Clinton's main downfall is that she is from a political dynasty and really isn't going to change anything in Washington if elected. I agree that her support will fall as people believe Bernie can win, but Bernie is really going to need grassroots support to get his message out. In some states, you still have a third of the voters not able to recognize his name.
Quote:
KauaiOrca said:
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Bigbadwooof said: Part of me wonders if the DNC made the debates so late in the game because they were unsure of Hillary's capability to win, and they needed time to get another status quo candidate in he race if things started turning south. How many debates have the Republicans done so far? 3? 4? And democrats aren't doing the first one til fucking October?
They did it because they didn't want this election cycle to chew up as much money in the primary phase as it did when Obama faced Hillary. If Hillary would have kept a big lead, she wouldn't have had to spend so much money on the primaries leaving a big war chest for the general election.
Looks like that strategy has gone to shit.
I think another big aspect of it is that they really want Hillary to be the nominee. The chair of the DNC, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, was a co-chair in Clinton's 2008 bid. She also made the decision regarding the debates almost single handedly it seems, and refuses to budge, even after pressure from her co-chairs in the DNC.
It just reeks of dirty politics. By this time in 2007, the Democrats had already had nine debates. And Clinton was the one who was begging for more.
I'm secretly hoping a story breaks about Clinton and Wasserman Schultz colluding to reduce the number of debates.
-------------------- DISCLAIMER: None of the ideas expressed above are actually mine. They are told to me by Luthor and Ferdinand , the five inch tall space aliens who live under my desk. In return for these ideas, I have given them permission to eat any dust bunnies they may find under there.
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The Ecstatic
Chilldog Extraordinaire


Registered: 11/11/09
Posts: 33,369
Loc: 'Merica
Last seen: 1 hour, 15 minutes
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: ballsalsa]
#22173055 - 09/01/15 08:55 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
ballsalsa said: its funny to me that anyone gives 2 shits about iowa. Iowa is far from representative of the population of the U.S., and they don't even have real elections for Christ' sake. The whole premise of a caucus is so far removed from a free election, that i still have a hard time believing that people still vote that way in backwards hillbilly states like iowa.
The premise of primaries themselves is retarded. A creation of the two parties to whittle down the field into the two most bland candidates.
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The Ecstatic
Chilldog Extraordinaire


Registered: 11/11/09
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: Bigbadwooof]
#22173065 - 09/01/15 08:58 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bigbadwooof said: Part of me wonders if the DNC made the debates so late in the game because they were unsure of Hillary's capability to win, and they needed time to get another status quo candidate in he race if things started turning south. How many debates have the Republicans done so far? 3? 4? And democrats aren't doing the first one til fucking October?
The debates are few and far between because the DNC doesn't want an actual liberal challenging Hillary. She can pay lip service to the issues and that's good enough for the party.
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: The Ecstatic]
#22173084 - 09/01/15 09:02 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates
The VP and Presidential debates are controlled by the R's and D's themselves, talk about a conflict of interest.
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The Ecstatic
Chilldog Extraordinaire


Registered: 11/11/09
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Loc: 'Merica
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: qman]
#22173144 - 09/01/15 09:16 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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^ yep.
And how bout the Chair of the DNC was the ex chair of Hillary's 2008 campaign.
No conflict here, folks.
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The Ecstatic
Chilldog Extraordinaire


Registered: 11/11/09
Posts: 33,369
Loc: 'Merica
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: The Ecstatic]
#22174820 - 09/01/15 05:05 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, endorses Bernie Sanders.
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Bigbadwooof
Trumps Bone Spurs




Registered: 12/07/13
Posts: 13,347
Last seen: 40 minutes, 32 seconds
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: The Ecstatic]
#22174886 - 09/01/15 05:26 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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The Ecstatic said: Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, endorses Bernie Sanders.
Holy fuck... Really!?! Wow, that kind of shocks me.
-------------------- "It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti FARTS "There is no need for conspiracy where interests converge" - George Carlin Every one of you should see this video. "If you bombard the earth with photons for a while, it can emit a roadster" - Andrej Kerpathy
 
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The Ecstatic
Chilldog Extraordinaire


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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: Bigbadwooof]
#22175475 - 09/01/15 07:50 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Yeah pretty surprising to me as well.
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Bigbadwooof
Trumps Bone Spurs




Registered: 12/07/13
Posts: 13,347
Last seen: 40 minutes, 32 seconds
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: The Ecstatic]
#22181561 - 09/03/15 01:57 AM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Biden seems to be more worried about Bernie than Hillary if he were to jump in (which I am quite certain he intends to do).
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-213297
Quote:
I am not a populist. But Bernie Sanders, he’s doing a helluva job.
Even Biden feels the Bern!
-------------------- "It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti FARTS "There is no need for conspiracy where interests converge" - George Carlin Every one of you should see this video. "If you bombard the earth with photons for a while, it can emit a roadster" - Andrej Kerpathy
 
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paperbackwriter
Edward Lear


Registered: 03/31/14
Posts: 1,888
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: Bigbadwooof]
#22192508 - 09/05/15 12:38 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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-------------------- Why should we strive with cynic frown To knock their fairy castles down? ~ Eliza Cook It's rather embarrassing to have given one's entire life to pondering the human predicament and to find that in the end one has little more to say than, 'Try to be a little kinder.' ~Aldous Huxley
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Bigbadwooof
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Registered: 12/07/13
Posts: 13,347
Last seen: 40 minutes, 32 seconds
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: paperbackwriter]
#22192537 - 09/05/15 12:45 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
paperbackwriter said: Bernie kicking it old school.
http://time.com/4023760/bernie-sanders-picket-line-iowa/
Lmao! I can't get enough of this guy man. He's great! Bernie is ready to get down and dirty, while Hillary won't even do interviews herself!
That sort of reminds me of the way Jimmy Carter got elected.
-------------------- "It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti FARTS "There is no need for conspiracy where interests converge" - George Carlin Every one of you should see this video. "If you bombard the earth with photons for a while, it can emit a roadster" - Andrej Kerpathy
 
Edited by Bigbadwooof (09/05/15 12:45 PM)
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paperbackwriter
Edward Lear


Registered: 03/31/14
Posts: 1,888
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: Bigbadwooof]
#22196933 - 09/06/15 12:04 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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-------------------- Why should we strive with cynic frown To knock their fairy castles down? ~ Eliza Cook It's rather embarrassing to have given one's entire life to pondering the human predicament and to find that in the end one has little more to say than, 'Try to be a little kinder.' ~Aldous Huxley
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 3,131
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: paperbackwriter]
#22197044 - 09/06/15 12:31 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
paperbackwriter said: Sanders continues to gain in polls.
And Hillary continues to say stupid stuff. Brokaw today on Meet the Press was literally beside himself at how stupid Hillary's responses have been.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/06/tom-brokaw-isnt-buying-hillary-clintons-latest-email-excuse-video/
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
Edited by KauaiOrca (09/06/15 12:33 PM)
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The Ecstatic
Chilldog Extraordinaire


Registered: 11/11/09
Posts: 33,369
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: KauaiOrca]
#22197063 - 09/06/15 12:37 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
KauaiOrca said:
Quote:
paperbackwriter said: Sanders continues to gain in polls.
And Hillary continues to say stupid stuff. Brokaw today on Meet the Press was literally beside himself at how stupid Hillary's responses have been.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/06/tom-brokaw-isnt-buying-hillary-clintons-latest-email-excuse-video/
Quote:
If I've lost Cronkite Brokaw, then I've lost middle America.
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Bigbadwooof
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Registered: 12/07/13
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: The Ecstatic]
#22197410 - 09/06/15 02:12 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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I'm watching the interview Brokaw was talking about. I'm only a few minutes in and it's rough! lmao... They really do go after her on msnbc. Her first interview with them wasn't a cake walk either.
My gf and I were talking about Hillary, and my gf pointed out that she has such incredible control over her body. Like she's studied body language. She has this sort of hypnotic type of nod she does throughout the interview, and it looks like her every movement is calculated.
-------------------- "It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti FARTS "There is no need for conspiracy where interests converge" - George Carlin Every one of you should see this video. "If you bombard the earth with photons for a while, it can emit a roadster" - Andrej Kerpathy
 
Edited by Bigbadwooof (09/06/15 02:14 PM)
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BoldAsLove
Pokemon Master


Registered: 03/10/11
Posts: 2,549
Loc: Kanto Region
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Re: Bernie draws 28,000 in LA and the same in Portland! [Re: KauaiOrca]
#22198190 - 09/06/15 04:42 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
KauaiOrca said:
Quote:
BoldAsLove said:
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KauaiOrca said: He'll take more votes from Hillary than from Bernie, IMHO. Biden is much closer to Hillary politically than he is to Bernie. Bernie is an anti establishment insurgent candidate and Biden and Hillary are ultimate establishment candidates. As such, he'll benefit.
I agree that what you say sounds intuitive, but if you look at that Iowa poll, it seems Biden draws from Sanders and Clinton supporters about equally, which is interesting to me and I'm trying to figure out why.
Biden hasn't even announced. The polls out right now aren't telling us much. Hillary's support is soft ... Bernie's isn't. When he announces he'll get a good 5-10 point pop. I'll bet at least 3/4 of that comes from Clinton.
I apologize, it certainly seems that intuition in this case is indeed supported by the numbers; Biden (pre-announcement) draws more voters away from Clinton than Sanders. I was wrong to suggest otherwise and I'm glad that all the data have been compiled.
This is good news!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/09/06/polls-show-a-biden-presidential-run-would-hurt-clinton-not-sanders/
-------------------- DISCLAIMER: None of the ideas expressed above are actually mine. They are told to me by Luthor and Ferdinand , the five inch tall space aliens who live under my desk. In return for these ideas, I have given them permission to eat any dust bunnies they may find under there.
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