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Confucian
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Registered: 03/31/09
Posts: 1,741
Loc: USA
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A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON!
#22057215 - 08/07/15 08:42 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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I'm seeing a lot of death crosses about to happen. This is when the short term 50 day moving average points down and the long term 200 day moving average points up....And they cross each other. It is a "killer" sell signal, and it's not a short term thing, it's a very long term predictor (10-20 months of bearishness).
The Dow will do the death cross next week:

The S & P 500 is a little trickier, if it happens, it won't happen for another month, and it might get a bounce off the 200 day moving average as it is seeing a minor intraday bounce and flirting with the 200dma today:

Just wanted to point this out, I don't have a big stake in the market either way, but it's something I noticed. If you go back to late 2007 all the indices got death crosses (and recall what happened in 2008). So this could take a while to play out.
So I don't feel like going in and looking up individual stocks right now, but if you start seeing death crosses pop up left and right you might want to be cautious. Take a look at a perfect example with Walmart, the downfall happened fairly quickly, but I want to stress that it is a long long long-term indicator (so expect WMT to be much lower in about 6 months to a year):
Edited by Confucian (08/07/15 09:40 AM)
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22058978 - 08/07/15 02:37 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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so wheres that leave my 12k in the market when I'm in mutual funds? I had lingering feeling this week to switch to bonds or GICs or something for a hwile and then I've got small cap directinvesting portfolio I misseda sell off for 140$ profit and baught into some garb taht is nice ethical product but not a stock market company obviously, I'd like to be getting into solar city now might be a good time for solar city purchase its down to decent price to purchase. I wouldnt mind getting into the euro either but I feel extremely defensive and speculating since you say this, I noticed something array, I think I`ll do something gamblish but I`m not getting to know that i know nothing about the market which in itself took a while but at least I feel i`ve done effort to not have to pay these MER`s for RBC`s dividend which is notorious high MER/trailing
So I thought bonds not ETF's I want something stand alone not a mix you know? currency bothers me a bit as canadian confucian the lingering feeling is conservatives threw us into election at same interval as american politics and I believe protesting caused drop in dollar and that none of this would be happening if pipelines went through.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22059170 - 08/07/15 03:19 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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you heard it here first
surprisingly enough, I've been pretty negative at the macro level for about a year now. Increasingly so since march/april/may. most of the central bank's bullets are already out of the gun and fiscal policy doesn't exist in this kind of political environment... so let's hope any potential equity bears don't reek havoc on main street.
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Confucian
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Registered: 03/31/09
Posts: 1,741
Loc: USA
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22075687 - 08/11/15 10:01 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Confucian said: The Dow will do the death cross next week:

The 200 day moving average is officially higher than the 50 for first time in about 4 years. Could get really ugly.
Edited by Confucian (08/11/15 10:01 AM)
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Penelope_Tree
Shamanic Panic



Registered: 07/31/09
Posts: 8,535
Loc: magic sugarcastle
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22099758 - 08/16/15 06:00 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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What would this look like played out in a years time? Not in market terms, but in consumer terms?
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full blown human
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Confucian
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Registered: 03/31/09
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Loc: USA
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Penelope_Tree]
#22101897 - 08/17/15 08:47 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Penelope_Tree said: What would this look like played out in a years time? Not in market terms, but in consumer terms?
Nobody can predict what the future looks like - I'm just looking at the technical indicators - and they are pretty bearish (but could be just another fakeout with the market climbing higher yet again - nobody knows).
Stock crashes probably won't be felt by the avg. Joe.
They could benefit by lower gas prices...
Could be a weaker job market with more people on unemployment, less hiring, harder to get a loan, less people buying houses (prices dip a little), etc.
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Confucian
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Registered: 03/31/09
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22120943 - 08/21/15 07:24 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Just one day is all it took for the S&P500 to point that 50 day moving average sharply down. Should get death cross end of next month maybe beginning of October. In the calculations (going back 50 closes), instead of including numbers above 2100 there will be a string of numbers a lot closer to 2000, bring down the avg (currently at 2093). Pre-market down 1% just a few minutes before the open.

I don't want to get ahead of myself and assume a 15% market correction over the next few months, but there's the age old question, what came first, the chicken or the egg?
Did the technical indicators predict it - or did something in the fundamentals break down or change recently.
Well, I clearly think the technical indicators are what is causing this, and the bad news will come, but the technical analysis in the charts tell you to expect that.
Edited by Confucian (08/21/15 07:26 AM)
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Penelope_Tree
Shamanic Panic



Registered: 07/31/09
Posts: 8,535
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22124055 - 08/21/15 07:29 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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It could just be a correction, could it not?
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full blown human
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Confucian
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Registered: 03/31/09
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Loc: USA
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Penelope_Tree]
#22124928 - 08/21/15 10:52 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Here's a FIVE-YEAR "WEEKLY" chart of the S&P500. It goes back 5 years, to October of 2010.
First note the golden cross (that is the reverse of the death cross where the 50 day moving avg. [blue line] crosses above the 200 day moving avg. [red line]). Very positive sign in the beginning of 2011.
Next note that incredibly strong 50 day moving average. Do you see the 6 or so times the 50 day moving average holds as support over the course of a half decade (highlighted in yellow)? Well, it was completely demolished today. Crashed right through.
Further, the MACD (black line on bottom of chart) is now negative, for first time since 2011.
It is going to get very ugly. A "recession" takes a couple quarters to play out. A recession looks deep into the future. It's hard to know whether this is a correction or recession. But it's looking pretty damn close to some very ugly action over the next 1-2 years.
Edited by Confucian (08/21/15 10:54 PM)
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22126618 - 08/22/15 12:13 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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what if terrence time wave zero was a stock market chart its just been imaginarily high since 2012 now its past the last lump and it will be non existent and unsupported for ever endevour
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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Adden

Registered: 06/04/03
Posts: 39,201
Loc:
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
#22129929 - 08/23/15 08:28 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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The whole thing is a scam. I made a chunk of change when I was younger and it paid for my undergrad, but it was retard luck. Like full retard, no research, just spare money I threw at things that stuck. Worldwide fucking scam, I don't know how you guys do it. I think it's one of the biggest jokes in the money market. And before someone writes a 3 page response: I really don't care.
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Confucian
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Registered: 03/31/09
Posts: 1,741
Loc: USA
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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22305250 - 09/28/15 09:12 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Confucian said: The Dow will do the death cross next week:
DOW JONES UPDATED PRICE:

Quote:
Confucian said: The S & P 500

S&P 500 UPDATED PRICE:

NASDAQ Death Cross:

Also noticed AMZN plowed through 200 day moving average...$450 puts could be nice:

Visa did the same thing:

Mastercard fall through 200 day moving average:
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ch1ck3n.s0up
Troubled Loner



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Re: A few days away from lots of death crosses ----> Bear Market / Recession Coming VERY SOON! [Re: Confucian]
#22334887 - 10/04/15 09:33 PM (8 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yea bra I'm 'bout to start shorting some stuff
-------------------- "Inspiration ~ Move me brightly ~ light the song with sense and color ~ hold away despair ~ more than this I will not ask ~ faced with mysteries dark and vast ~ statements just seem vain at last" --Jerry Garcia, Terrapin Station "Officer, I'm going to remain silent, and I would like to speak with a lawyer. I'm not resisting, but I don't consent to any searches.
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