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Invisiblememes
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Bear Beckons
    #22005693 - 07/27/15 05:28 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)







So.







Months and months ago I was in agreement with Lunar about some global economic troubles that might come about as a result of the divergences between USD strength and the inability of international players to afford that USD-denominated debt they slurped up during the greenback's long slide this past decade.

We watched the indices bounce all over.  Greece (which had been a shitshow for a half-decade) got calamitous.  Then the "deal" occurred.  Greeks have the memories of drunks; they will forget the panic of this deadline and will, in time, revolt against the (now harsher) imposed austerity by the troika.

China, we are seeing, can not fight the winds of the markets any better than their elder brothers the Soviets could.  Sure, in the most extreme of cases China could fully support their equity markets, and any other, all other, markets.  But then they're right back where 'ol Comrade Red was 30 years ago.  Their recent GDP numbers are already suspicious, with recent producer indices and other metrics coming in at levels that wouldn't indicate 7% GDP growth. 

Markets took a 30% hit; then rebounded again, then just got crushed 8.5% in a single trading session.  They're poised for more losses on Tuesday, according to the futures marekts.  How bad, who knows.  I'd reckon if the markets hit -2%/-3% in the early hours of trading that the PBOC will announce something, or just close the market altogether due to a glitch or "foreign hack" or something.  I can't imagine anybody feels comfortable with their cash in Chinese equities right now (unless they've no need for liquidity for any reasonable time frame).

Then again, what do i know.

I shifted a lot of my piggybank out of equities back in late may (had been feeling the winds changin for a while)


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InvisibleAdden
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22007248 - 07/27/15 10:33 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

400 dollar gold and 6 dollar silver 2015!


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Adden]
    #22009916 - 07/28/15 02:15 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

>400 dollar gold and 6 dollar silver 2015!

All those gals in your sig will ask me to do them before that happens.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Invisiblememes
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22135888 - 08/24/15 02:56 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

hi

Dow Transports flirting with Bear label.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22136960 - 08/24/15 06:51 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

I put some more money into JPM today. Buy low and sell high. Stocks are on sale so git while they are cheap and at reasonable PEs. Facebook and netflix... Not so much reasonable PEs


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22142450 - 08/25/15 06:50 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
I put some more money into JPM today. Buy low and sell high. Stocks are on sale so git while they are cheap and at reasonable PEs. Facebook and netflix... Not so much reasonable PEs




If the market continue to tank (which it will, market hasn't dipped in a few years), JPM will also tank.

Price to earnings really isn't that important. The reason these new companies have extremely high PE ratios is because they are new businesses. There is huge growth potential in their earnings. When their earnings improve then the ratio will shrink back down. JPM was founded in the 1700s, it is a mature stock. YOu wouldn't expect JPM to triple in a year. It is very possible with the right market conditions that Facebook triples in a short time (it quadrupled in the last 2 years).

Why did Netflix go from $9 in December 2011 to over $100 today? Well, they have 42 million subscribers in the US and an additional 23 million monthly subscribers internationally.

That is 65 million subscribers compared to half of that a couple years ago.

Look at Netflix's revenues...

2013 - $4.4 billion
2014 - $5.5 billion
6 months ending June 30, 2015 - $3.2 billion.

A better strategy would be to buy stocks with high PE ratios.

Do you really think JPMs stock is going to skyrocket so high that a year or two from now the PE ratio goes above 20? It's not gonna happen.

PS - JPM stock will come down to low $40s as the market crashes over the next year.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Confucian]
    #22142584 - 08/25/15 07:13 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

This could be the beginning of the big collapse we have talked about for so long. Many have said it would be this year. China looks like the catalyst, the spark that lit the tinder. Once the general herd starts to panic, there is no turning back. I think maybe we have reached that point. The next few weeks will tell the story.

The great depression did not start in one day, it started with a crash but there were peaks after that which looked like a recovery starting but then it always went back down lower. The reason why it will be hard to come out of this one is because of all that debt. We did not have such levels of debt in the 30's.

What will be the safe haven? I say commodities, I like r/e and also gold, silver is probably good too. I am bearish on cash, so I don't know if I should put more into r/e or maybe gold or what. People have to live somewhere and gold has held its value for thousands of years, much longer than any fiat ever has.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge] * 1
    #22142752 - 08/25/15 07:47 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

I am pretty bummed that the puts I was going to buy immediately started to go up so I held off.  This with VIX at 13.  Oh well, now they are literally 2500% higher than what I was going to buy them at.

No guts, no glory.  Only been talking about this for years. 

I actually think the time has come to worry more about essentials like food for instance "just in case".  The shut down of the grid will leave most scrambling for their next meal with no eggs on the shelves.  Pun intended.  At least the texting will cease, some blessing there...


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22142877 - 08/25/15 08:08 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Yeah, I hate that when I have the right idea and chicken out only to see I would have cleaned up. :frown:

You think food will vanish and electricity? I was thinking more of a financial meltdown. We are the food producer of the world so if food gets scarce we will make money, or the big farmers will, we will be paying more. I can see that, prices going nuts which means hyper inflation.

They didn't shut down electricity or have food shortages in the depression, just nobody had much money. This time around there will be plenty of cash but you will need a great deal to buy what you need, much like wiemar Germany last century, Zimbabwe in this century or Venezuela ongoing.

Buying some heirloom seed might be a good investment. Grow it out, make more seed plus you have good food. I would not touch the gm seed but that is another topic. The rest of this year should be interesting.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Invisiblememes
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge] * 1
    #22142938 - 08/25/15 08:17 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

hey kids, while this thread is DEFINITELY the 'bear beckons' thread, it's DEFINITELY NOT the 'world is collapsing' thread.

this is simply a correction back towards what we should be at.  we're digesting the gluttony of free cash that has found its way to equities since 2011.  i don't know why it took so long for this to happen. 

first i thought the russia thing would bring it on;
or the USD hyperstrength from earlier this year
or the greek madness that ended up not imploding (but NOTE, still isnt over)
or the oil swoon
or the swoon in hoards of other commodities
or China's continually weakening industrial appetite




i still think we have another hafl-as-much to fall


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22142968 - 08/25/15 08:23 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

The stock market is not just a little bubbly, its way overpriced. On the good side, if you time it right you can pick up stocks near the bottom for next to nothing. People got rich doing that in the depression and holding on.

What worries me is the debt crisis. When everyone panics, will interest rates spike or stay low? Will china start cashing in its treasuries? Some say its already started doing that. Will we be able to cover or will there be a run on the bank and lack of liquidity? Will everyone want to dump their treasuries like they are dumping stocks and bonds? Will all countries face financial ruin? What will we do about it?

If there is hyperinflation, our debts will be payable in the less valuable money so that is good. But it means every one suffers greatly especially those who have saved. Paradoxically, those who have great debt and were unwise but managed to hold on will be rewarded.

Will they official declare a recession by the end of sept? Will they blame it on bush?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22142993 - 08/25/15 08:28 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
Yeah, I hate that when I have the right idea and chicken out only to see I would have cleaned up. :frown:

You think food will vanish and electricity? I was thinking more of a financial meltdown. We are the food producer of the world so if food gets scarce we will make money, or the big farmers will, we will be paying more. I can see that, prices going nuts which means hyper inflation.

They didn't shut down electricity or have food shortages in the depression, just nobody had much money. This time around there will be plenty of cash but you will need a great deal to buy what you need, much like wiemar Germany last century, Zimbabwe in this century or Venezuela ongoing.

Buying some heirloom seed might be a good investment. Grow it out, make more seed plus you have good food. I would not touch the gm seed but that is another topic. The rest of this year should be interesting.




I've been calling for a cyber attack for some time now and it certainly has been "happening" or not happening and a hot PTB topic so that would lead me to believe it's a possibility for power outages or grid outages.

More likely either we support here and bounce back up, or I think Houston we really have a problem.

It's a debt crisis, a credit crisis, and a liquidity crisis.  The hyperinflation scenario isn't the concern, it's all these bets placed on derivatives on top of all the sovereign debt.  The corporations are actually in pretty decent shape, but the amount of leverage of "the system" is appalling.  I think they are over a quadrillion.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22143031 - 08/25/15 08:34 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Yeah but most of those derivatives are canceling each other out. Sort of like a casino that might have a lot of money being bet at any given moment but its not all against the house, some play red, some play black and so on. It could be a problem and likely will but its not like a quadrillion will be lost somehow.

Yeah, hacker grid attacks are possible but those are temporary. We have had so many hacker attacks that there are a slew of new firms specializing in fixing and preventing it. I can't see all electricity being cut off for any length of time but in the summer, even one day is insufferable. Likewise food will still be grown.

Don't discount hyperinflation. We got away with qe mostly because the world is hungry for us dollars, and thinks we are the most stable. Russia, china, brazil, etc have not made much of a dent in that. However, as other countries crank up the printing presses to overdrive, which forces their neighbors to do the same, which forces us to do the same, there will be a currency overload. More money chasing the same goods means higher prices even though we haven't seen much yet.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22143069 - 08/25/15 08:40 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

It's not as black and red (black and white?) as you put it on the derivatives.  Recently our buddies at JPM and GS wheedled out of some obligations based on their "interpretation" of key words in the contracts.  Just because you have insurance doesn't mean the insurer will pay you what you think they owe you. 

Sit down, read the prospectus for GLD sometime.  It's a good read to see just how much the legalese protects our big banksters in this case once again JPM.  As custodian, they should be but really aren't going to be responsible to pay you for the failure of GLD based on one of any number of things happening that make them skip out instead.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22144535 - 08/26/15 05:08 AM (8 years, 5 months ago)

it was brought on by me and my investment choices


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Confucian] * 1
    #22147416 - 08/26/15 04:14 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Banks are traditionally valued on book value as opposed to growth prospects. A Price to earnings over growth or PEG would be more suitable for netflix. Although I do not expect JPM to deliver huge capital gains, banks' lending margins will increase as the fed increases rates and it is a stock that can be held over many economic cycles, not just until a newer disruptive technology comes along.

Sometimes investing is about matching the average returns and not swinging for the fences (or striking out)


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22147448 - 08/26/15 04:22 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

You actually think the fed will raise rates significantly? Why would they do that? It would not only make our debt (more) unsustainable but also hurt the rest of the world. They have been talking about it for over a year but always come up with an excuse not to. Expect more of the same.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Confucian]
    #22147466 - 08/26/15 04:25 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Confucian said:

Why did Netflix go from $9 in December 2011 to over $100 today? Well, they have 42 million subscribers in the US and an additional 23 million monthly subscribers internationally.

That is 65 million subscribers compared to half of that a couple years ago.

Look at Netflix's revenues...

2013 - $4.4 billion
2014 - $5.5 billion
6 months ending June 30, 2015 - $3.2 billion.

A better strategy would be to buy stocks with high PE ratios.
Quote:






NFLX stock is an overpriced pig is why!  Their PE is 247 and that ain't good.  To get that international volume they have to lose money.  It's retarded, plain and simple.  Losing money to gain business is completely retarded.  In fact, it's so retarded that I had to not only say it again, but figure out the best way to short this overpriced pig.  Put options, obviously, to chose which ones and when will be the key.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (08/26/15 04:26 PM)


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22147594 - 08/26/15 04:52 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

10 year treasury rates have averaged about 5% historically.

Looking back at 1941 to 1956, don't you think there were people that said rates could never go above 3%? Or in the 80's as people were locking in mortgage rates at 15% fixed, there was no shortage of self-assured purchasers.

Rates will come up from historic lows eventually.


--------------------
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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22147617 - 08/26/15 04:55 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Amazon continues to have ever expanding revenue with almost no profit and a huge pe. For many many years now. Sometimes markets are irrational for long periods


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22147635 - 08/26/15 04:58 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
10 year treasury rates have averaged about 5% historically.

Looking back at 1941 to 1956, don't you think there were people that said rates could never go above 3%? Or in the 80's as people were locking in mortgage rates at 15% fixed, there was no shortage of self-assured purchasers.

Rates will come up from historic lows eventually.




In spite of nobody believing it, and because of nobody believing it, I think the odds are actually in favor of a rate hike in September, after all this nonsense.  The reason I say this was some odd comments at the bottom of the ticker on CNBC from both JPM and Citibank stating that The Fed in fact should raise rates in September.  I suspect it will catch the market off guard and make it go down because at that point it truly will be a September Surprise.  But I won't be surprised.  Oh no.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22147809 - 08/26/15 05:35 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

I remember back in Sep/Oct 2008 when the market was tumbling and they were putting together a financial bailout ($700 billion of "TARP").

October 3rd, the DJIA opened at 10,483...As soon as 10am or so rolled around the market rallied up to 10,800.

Within MINUTES of the TARP announcement, amid all the idiot lawmakers cheering like they saved the day, the market started to tank.

It tanked and tanked and tanked and ended up 500 points lower at 10,300. And then it was pure hell for the next 5 or 6 months.



I don't think it's going to be that bad, but I think the market is in a lose-lose situation. They keep interest rates flat market tanks...They raise interest rates market tanks.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22147962 - 08/26/15 06:01 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
10 year treasury rates have averaged about 5% historically.

Looking back at 1941 to 1956, don't you think there were people that said rates could never go above 3%? Or in the 80's as people were locking in mortgage rates at 15% fixed, there was no shortage of self-assured purchasers.

Rates will come up from historic lows eventually.




I agree with the 'eventually' part. I do not agree there will be a significant rise in sept or any time soon. I would not be surprised at a token increase of 0.1% or so accompanied by lots of talk about gradually raising it some more. That is possible but I see that as somewhat unlikely to very unlikely depending on what happens between now and then. No way in hades will they jack it up a full point or more. You can quote me on that in sept if you like. Eventually yes, but first we must have the bloodbath.

If you believe the pundits when they say the correction is over, you will be feeding the lions behind the scene who are feasting on sheep who followed the talking heads.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22164743 - 08/30/15 12:57 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

I've been wondering what to do with excess cash which I do not see as a good thing. You do need some, for ongoing expenses, possible emergencies and so on but with banks paying next to nothing in interest and possible inflation in the wings, I was getting a little antsy.

I didn't want to buy another house, I have my hands full right now and still haven't rehabbed all of the ones I do have. My car needed some work and they quoted me a very high price, probably more than the old car is worth. Its a reputable shop so I don't think I was being high balled but it still runs. A very economical '96 4 cylinder.

Now I think i'll just buy a new car, probably get a new '15 at a discount. Why pay thousands more for a '16 which will be worth like 5 grand less in a year? I plan to keep it at least 10 years, change the oil every 1000 and do all the other maintenance and not run it rough.

If they jack up the min to $15 like they are trying to do, that will increase the cost of goods all by itself plus we don't know what will happen financially. We've been on the edge of the cliff for a long time without going over but luck only lasts so long. I figure all consumer goods will go up and while this is not exactly an investment, it avoids the constant repairs on an old car and saves the increase if I waited a few more years. Now I have to run the gauntlet of sleazy car dealers and their tricks.

Sound like a good plan?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleAdden
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22164973 - 08/30/15 02:11 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Sounds good, just be sure to sell the car private party. Trading them in is a biggest scam.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Adden]
    #22165840 - 08/30/15 06:17 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Dys said:
Sounds good, just be sure to sell the car private party. Trading them in is a biggest scam.




I agree, the trade in is a game. They figure, for example 25k for the car, they figure yours is worth 1k. In my case less but just to use round numbers. So they say they will give you 2k for your car but can't come down any on the new one. If paying all cash you could get the new one for 23k after bargaining a bit, so they are getting your old car for nothing. Many people are so thrilled by the trade in they don't do the math and realize they are being taken.

I don't worry about keeping up with the jonses so it will be an economy car probably a corolla. If I worried about those things I never would have driven it this long. It looks like a beater now with rust. The engine is still good, ac works fine, even windshield washer and gets good mileage, about 24. That's why I kept it so long.

i'll make a cash deal, and when I'm ready i'll ask what they want to give on trade in and they will probably make some lame excuse like they aren't allowed to do that after a deal has been made. They don't want to admit they wouldn't want to give $100 but I can no doubt get 500 or more myself. I used to buy old cars and resell them years ago. That was before when you could put an ad in the paper under a fake name and they didn't know the difference. Now you tell them your phone number and they tell you your name. I could still do it using a burner cell phone but I'm not planning to sell more than the legal limit over which you are required to have a dealers license.

I would save some money fixing it and keeping it but its time to move on. I was getting to the point I hated for people to see what I drove.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22172491 - 09/01/15 04:14 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

today should be another interesting one.

major indexes were slightly red yesterday despite oil continuing it's bounce.  seems people took thier money and ran, because it's down 3% since yesterday's close.  asia and europe showed more 2-3% weakness last night; let's see how US equities hold up today.

if our tuesday US data comes out too weak (aka, US economy slowing) or too strong (aka supporting the fed sept rate hike) then I think the dow could close in the 15s this week~


Edited by memes (09/01/15 04:35 AM)


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22172524 - 09/01/15 04:47 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

The China Blame Game is so absurd as to be already getting obnoxious.  The notion that the US is somehow economically separate from China is preposterous.  Absolutely ridiculous.  We buy literally 3/4 of our cheap goods that are about the only thing going for us from China. 

To somehow imagine that the US is in recovery is another notion that really is getting obnoxious to hear.  Talk about some massaged numbers for an economy not only in debt but that doesn't make anything anymore.

Down we go, this is a GLOBAL selloff CNBC, quit your gum flapping to the contrary...


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22172645 - 09/01/15 06:22 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Dow Jones is off 440 points an hour before open...


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22172861 - 09/01/15 08:00 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Down we go, this is a GLOBAL selloff CNBC, quit your gum flapping to the contrary...




:lol: I can't even watch those guys anymore, most of them haven't a clue and get so sensational that it's become more of a circus of over-enthusiastic dolts than an informing news channel.  No disrespect intended to the select few anchors and guests who do know what they're talking about, but I just don't have the time or energy to wade through the rest of the network's bullshit to find them.  Quite literally, the only time I have turned CNBC on over the past years is to catch the real time commentary of big headline data, which has more or less been exclusively on Fed policy releases.  I do however check their mobile application several times a day to read stories that I can hand pick, as well as ZeroHedge.com and the fine folks over on the StockMarketMentor & OptionMarketMentor forums.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: geokills]
    #22174252 - 09/01/15 02:33 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Most of the time I turn the sound down except for Joe Kernan who is so remarkably full of himself yet actually is amusing.  Maybe it's because he's so pompous with a smile that I get a kick out of it.  That's before the market opens so no harm no foul.  Usually any real commentary comes from the early morning elitists.  It's fun to do a little homework and see just who they are connected too other than the obvious "I work for JPM" people.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22174309 - 09/01/15 02:49 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
The China Blame Game is so absurd as to be already getting obnoxious.  The notion that the US is somehow economically separate from China is preposterous.  Absolutely ridiculous.  We buy literally 3/4 of our cheap goods that are about the only thing going for us from China. 

To somehow imagine that the US is in recovery is another notion that really is getting obnoxious to hear.  Talk about some massaged numbers for an economy not only in debt but that doesn't make anything anymore.

Down we go, this is a GLOBAL selloff CNBC, quit your gum flapping to the contrary...




Tell it like it is, you pull no punches.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22174486 - 09/01/15 03:34 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Usually any real commentary comes from the early morning elitists.



I think you're right.  But as I'm west coast, I'm not usually up early enough.  When I get up, I'm immediately working to parse through headlines and pre-market action, and then it's off to the races.  :dancing:


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22175007 - 09/01/15 06:01 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

well, we got close to that 16k mark, but didnt dip below it.  probably tomorrow, as asia's probably going to sell off tonight off our our lead.

CNBC is great for catching the big picture.  If you ignore the details of every story you read, and just look at the headlines, over time, it paints a very very clear picture of the prevailing trend


"XYZ index closes at new highs!"
"10 new IPOs you should read up on"
"Tesla, to the moon?!?"
"S&P Closes at new highs, Dow off intraday peak"
"Biotech gets stung, utilities get a bump"
"market wandering?  here's how to navigate"
"S&P hits highs, Dow Transports dive"
"Markets stagnant, Transports continue swoon"
--------this is where i get tired of inventing headlines------------
"fear!"
"panic! at the disco"
"Berar!"
"collapse!"
"we've bottomed"


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22175149 - 09/01/15 06:39 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

XYZ is mainly backside dealings, things like waste water, and its directly affected by the roll of QRS & UVW with the QRS depolarizations being tracked in contrast with the Understanding Recreational Vehicles, XYZ is also known for the famous Canadian channel cousin of ABC.


--------------------
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in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22175216 - 09/01/15 06:54 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

it took me like 15 seconds to figure out you were bullshitting.  took me all the way to the end;  the QRS & UVW didnt stop me at all, lollercoptor


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22177131 - 09/02/15 06:14 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Kelly Evans is a goddess.  I love it when a woman is so beautiful that she has the confidence (or woke up too late) to leave off the make up.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22181611 - 09/03/15 02:48 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

TravelerOfSorts said:
XYZ is mainly backside dealings, things like waste water, and its directly affected by the roll of QRS & UVW with the QRS depolarizations being tracked in contrast with the Understanding Recreational Vehicles, XYZ is also known for the famous Canadian channel cousin of ABC.




I'm glad when I rolled the dice and randomly picked a shroomerite to base all my investing options on, it was you.  I'm rolling in so much dough now.  Thanks mang, these biscuits will taste great!


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: mndfreeze]
    #22186598 - 09/04/15 07:02 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Dow Jones off 285 points with 30 minutes until the open. Gotta love it.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Confucian]
    #22187770 - 09/04/15 12:10 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

with china open monday (after their holiday this week) and the US closed; i'm thinking tuesday's premarket might look worse


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22189640 - 09/04/15 07:10 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
with china open monday (after their holiday this week) and the US closed; i'm thinking tuesday's premarket might look worse




Monday September 14th.  Dow down 7.77% to 14,415...


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22190927 - 09/04/15 11:28 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

it's 2015

recent lows were 15,666

mark of the beast





grin & BEAR it


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22191511 - 09/05/15 06:14 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Oh you ain't seen nothing yet.  You about to get Shmitaed.  Sept 14, 2015.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22191755 - 09/05/15 08:35 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

yeah i remember you talking about the shemitah a while back.  i mentioned it to some jewish friends of mine who were bewildered (one is The accountant for mega mega hedge fund-type institutions, so I was expecting her to know, at the very least)

either way, we'll see what happens~! :smile:


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22191839 - 09/05/15 09:06 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

There is always some religious fanatic claiming they have a prophecy from their friend that lives in outer space. It is so ridiculous I just can't comprehend how people buy into that type of thinking.

My uncle, who is a pastor, said this to me: "Now I'm not sure if you are into prophecies, but there is a Jewish Rabbi who is Christian that has correctly predicted every stock market crash. He is foreseeing another one this year, in the year of the SHITTARD". He didn't actually say shittard, I think he said "shmitah".


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Confucian]
    #22192236 - 09/05/15 11:18 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Confucian said:
There is always some religious fanatic claiming they have a prophecy from their friend that lives in outer space. It is so ridiculous I just can't comprehend how people buy into that type of thinking.

My uncle, who is a pastor, said this to me: "Now I'm not sure if you are into prophecies, but there is a Jewish Rabbi who is Christian that has correctly predicted every stock market crash. He is foreseeing another one this year, in the year of the SHITTARD". He didn't actually say shittard, I think he said "shmitah".




Maybe he said it was going down the shitter.

To those not paying attention, we never really "got out of" the mess from 2008.  Borrowing more and more money and getting deeper and deeper in debt normally leads to (you may choose only one)

1.  Bankruptcy
2.  Financial prosperity


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22192256 - 09/05/15 11:26 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

LE, that is true yet the left wing loonies proclaim that things are just great right now. One of them even said things were a million times better than under bush. They believe everything the govt says and anything in the msm. Logic just bounces off the shield of propaganda they have swallowed.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22192266 - 09/05/15 11:30 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
LE, that is true yet the left wing loonies proclaim that things are just great right now. One of them even said things were a million times better than under bush. They believe everything the govt says and anything in the msm. Logic just bounces off the shield of propaganda they have swallowed.




But, watching Alan Greenspan on CNBC yesterday did anything but breed confidence in this economy.  He (to paraphrase) said that the mountain of debt and all this hoopla about a mere quarter percent increase in rates after 6+ years is very concerning.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22192969 - 09/05/15 02:25 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

I'm wondering if I should even be putting my money anywhere right now. I know it might sound weird but I don't feel comfortable without 5k cash on hand (in our emergency "bug out" bag) and at least a moderate supply of gold and silver. It's probably a moot point in a major emergency when it can just be seized.

False sense of security but makes me feel better.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Adden]
    #22276194 - 09/22/15 08:23 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Roar.

I think it's time for our next leg down.  The charts, the metrics, the leading indicators, and even the news headlines - they're all still rolling over.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22276537 - 09/22/15 09:42 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

I can't believe the big crash hasn't happened yet. Its simply amazing how long some things can go on without anything propping it up. The various markets have defied gravity or prices have been beaten down, mostly on commodities. This gives rise to opportunities because the correctly identified underpriced commodity can shoot up in value. The gravity defiers are sure to fall, but they are staying afloat better than willie coyote who hasn't yet noticed that he ran off a cliff and is standing on thin air.

Those who bet gravity would not be defied much longer find themselves impatient, waiting for the expected drop that hasn't come. What if the economy and stock market keep flying for several years? The short sellers get eaten up. I don't think it will happen that way but we may soon see something dramatic happen. These are the ides of sept we have been warned about.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22292015 - 09/26/15 07:03 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Quote:

memes said:
with china open monday (after their holiday this week) and the US closed; i'm thinking tuesday's premarket might look worse




Monday September 14th.  Dow down 7.77% to 14,415...




China was down 7% that day.

This coming Monday September 28th I think sets up to be a BDD (Big Down Day). The charts and price action leads me to conclude this.  With the Pope and China leader in town last week was a prop up week, but I think the real selling begins next week. 

Aooooooga!  Now Dive!


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22306678 - 09/29/15 05:33 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

ouch, japan took a hit last night.  they were down 400 or so when i went to bed but i didnt think the bleeding would continue while i "slept".  i'm interested to see how long this takes to play itself out


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22307349 - 09/29/15 10:02 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Its an ongoing slow motion train wreck. People are looking for a "black" day, a big dramatic fall but it seems it will be drops, rising part way back, then another drop etc. World wide debt has sunk the economy and it will get worse before it gets better.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22782821 - 01/15/16 04:03 PM (8 years, 16 days ago)

Well, July '15 may not have been too far off from what is now tangibly (transports, Russell, MSCI World Index, EURO 600) a Bear Market.  US Equities bears to follow, as Iran comes online and China's debt bubble pops (equity market collapse has funneled cash right into the corporate bond market which will itself explode as recession hits Main Streets worldwide and China's already-pained export market further deteriorates (freight indexes and prices worldwide have tanked).  China's recognition of nonperforming loans will sour its national fiscal situation, leading to further Yuan weakening, which (as we've seen in August and now again at the start of 2016) bleeds US equities even more.

:cheers:

whoever turned me on to Zerohedge, thanks again.  It's been a good read these last 6mo


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22895800 - 02/12/16 12:47 PM (7 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
Months and months ago I was in agreement with Lunar about some global economic troubles that might come about as a result of the divergences between USD strength and the inability of international players to afford that USD-denominated debt they slurped up during the greenback's long slide this past decade.

We watched the indices bounce all over.  Greece (which had been a shitshow for a half-decade) got calamitous.  Then the "deal" occurred.  Greeks have the memories of drunks; they will forget the panic of this deadline and will, in time, revolt against the (now harsher) imposed austerity by the troika.






continued fun.  Greece just starting back up.  THe rest of the PIIGS looking equally weak.  Euro banking just in a mess altogether, likely going to result in soverign rescue or by a depositer bail-in, perhaps in the form of negative rates on deposit accounts.

high-yield and (increasingly) IG credit looking suspect as continued oil price depression lasts longer than expected just a few short months ago:  us domestic shale producers being found to have lower break-evens than previously thought, the proxy war between Saudi Arabia & Iran in Yemen now has a new theatre in Syria, where it's Russia/Iran/Bashaar Al-Assad vs US-backed rebels, Saudi Arabia & the US coalition.

Only recent oil priec spikes have resulted from ETF liquidations and likely-fabricated "rumors" of OPEC supply-side action to put a floor under Oil.






fun times ahead.


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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22895844 - 02/12/16 01:00 PM (7 years, 11 months ago)

Someone back home mentioned there's a few hundred workers from the Canadian oil sands who showed up to work one day and were all told to just go home.


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