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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22147635 - 08/26/15 04:58 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
10 year treasury rates have averaged about 5% historically.

Looking back at 1941 to 1956, don't you think there were people that said rates could never go above 3%? Or in the 80's as people were locking in mortgage rates at 15% fixed, there was no shortage of self-assured purchasers.

Rates will come up from historic lows eventually.




In spite of nobody believing it, and because of nobody believing it, I think the odds are actually in favor of a rate hike in September, after all this nonsense.  The reason I say this was some odd comments at the bottom of the ticker on CNBC from both JPM and Citibank stating that The Fed in fact should raise rates in September.  I suspect it will catch the market off guard and make it go down because at that point it truly will be a September Surprise.  But I won't be surprised.  Oh no.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22147809 - 08/26/15 05:35 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

I remember back in Sep/Oct 2008 when the market was tumbling and they were putting together a financial bailout ($700 billion of "TARP").

October 3rd, the DJIA opened at 10,483...As soon as 10am or so rolled around the market rallied up to 10,800.

Within MINUTES of the TARP announcement, amid all the idiot lawmakers cheering like they saved the day, the market started to tank.

It tanked and tanked and tanked and ended up 500 points lower at 10,300. And then it was pure hell for the next 5 or 6 months.



I don't think it's going to be that bad, but I think the market is in a lose-lose situation. They keep interest rates flat market tanks...They raise interest rates market tanks.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22147962 - 08/26/15 06:01 PM (8 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
10 year treasury rates have averaged about 5% historically.

Looking back at 1941 to 1956, don't you think there were people that said rates could never go above 3%? Or in the 80's as people were locking in mortgage rates at 15% fixed, there was no shortage of self-assured purchasers.

Rates will come up from historic lows eventually.




I agree with the 'eventually' part. I do not agree there will be a significant rise in sept or any time soon. I would not be surprised at a token increase of 0.1% or so accompanied by lots of talk about gradually raising it some more. That is possible but I see that as somewhat unlikely to very unlikely depending on what happens between now and then. No way in hades will they jack it up a full point or more. You can quote me on that in sept if you like. Eventually yes, but first we must have the bloodbath.

If you believe the pundits when they say the correction is over, you will be feeding the lions behind the scene who are feasting on sheep who followed the talking heads.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22164743 - 08/30/15 12:57 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

I've been wondering what to do with excess cash which I do not see as a good thing. You do need some, for ongoing expenses, possible emergencies and so on but with banks paying next to nothing in interest and possible inflation in the wings, I was getting a little antsy.

I didn't want to buy another house, I have my hands full right now and still haven't rehabbed all of the ones I do have. My car needed some work and they quoted me a very high price, probably more than the old car is worth. Its a reputable shop so I don't think I was being high balled but it still runs. A very economical '96 4 cylinder.

Now I think i'll just buy a new car, probably get a new '15 at a discount. Why pay thousands more for a '16 which will be worth like 5 grand less in a year? I plan to keep it at least 10 years, change the oil every 1000 and do all the other maintenance and not run it rough.

If they jack up the min to $15 like they are trying to do, that will increase the cost of goods all by itself plus we don't know what will happen financially. We've been on the edge of the cliff for a long time without going over but luck only lasts so long. I figure all consumer goods will go up and while this is not exactly an investment, it avoids the constant repairs on an old car and saves the increase if I waited a few more years. Now I have to run the gauntlet of sleazy car dealers and their tricks.

Sound like a good plan?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleAdden
I'm a teapot
Registered: 06/04/03
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22164973 - 08/30/15 02:11 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Sounds good, just be sure to sell the car private party. Trading them in is a biggest scam.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Adden]
    #22165840 - 08/30/15 06:17 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Dys said:
Sounds good, just be sure to sell the car private party. Trading them in is a biggest scam.




I agree, the trade in is a game. They figure, for example 25k for the car, they figure yours is worth 1k. In my case less but just to use round numbers. So they say they will give you 2k for your car but can't come down any on the new one. If paying all cash you could get the new one for 23k after bargaining a bit, so they are getting your old car for nothing. Many people are so thrilled by the trade in they don't do the math and realize they are being taken.

I don't worry about keeping up with the jonses so it will be an economy car probably a corolla. If I worried about those things I never would have driven it this long. It looks like a beater now with rust. The engine is still good, ac works fine, even windshield washer and gets good mileage, about 24. That's why I kept it so long.

i'll make a cash deal, and when I'm ready i'll ask what they want to give on trade in and they will probably make some lame excuse like they aren't allowed to do that after a deal has been made. They don't want to admit they wouldn't want to give $100 but I can no doubt get 500 or more myself. I used to buy old cars and resell them years ago. That was before when you could put an ad in the paper under a fake name and they didn't know the difference. Now you tell them your phone number and they tell you your name. I could still do it using a burner cell phone but I'm not planning to sell more than the legal limit over which you are required to have a dealers license.

I would save some money fixing it and keeping it but its time to move on. I was getting to the point I hated for people to see what I drove.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Stonehenge]
    #22172491 - 09/01/15 04:14 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

today should be another interesting one.

major indexes were slightly red yesterday despite oil continuing it's bounce.  seems people took thier money and ran, because it's down 3% since yesterday's close.  asia and europe showed more 2-3% weakness last night; let's see how US equities hold up today.

if our tuesday US data comes out too weak (aka, US economy slowing) or too strong (aka supporting the fed sept rate hike) then I think the dow could close in the 15s this week~


Edited by memes (09/01/15 04:35 AM)


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22172524 - 09/01/15 04:47 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

The China Blame Game is so absurd as to be already getting obnoxious.  The notion that the US is somehow economically separate from China is preposterous.  Absolutely ridiculous.  We buy literally 3/4 of our cheap goods that are about the only thing going for us from China. 

To somehow imagine that the US is in recovery is another notion that really is getting obnoxious to hear.  Talk about some massaged numbers for an economy not only in debt but that doesn't make anything anymore.

Down we go, this is a GLOBAL selloff CNBC, quit your gum flapping to the contrary...


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22172645 - 09/01/15 06:22 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Dow Jones is off 440 points an hour before open...


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22172861 - 09/01/15 08:00 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Down we go, this is a GLOBAL selloff CNBC, quit your gum flapping to the contrary...




:lol: I can't even watch those guys anymore, most of them haven't a clue and get so sensational that it's become more of a circus of over-enthusiastic dolts than an informing news channel.  No disrespect intended to the select few anchors and guests who do know what they're talking about, but I just don't have the time or energy to wade through the rest of the network's bullshit to find them.  Quite literally, the only time I have turned CNBC on over the past years is to catch the real time commentary of big headline data, which has more or less been exclusively on Fed policy releases.  I do however check their mobile application several times a day to read stories that I can hand pick, as well as ZeroHedge.com and the fine folks over on the StockMarketMentor & OptionMarketMentor forums.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: geokills]
    #22174252 - 09/01/15 02:33 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Most of the time I turn the sound down except for Joe Kernan who is so remarkably full of himself yet actually is amusing.  Maybe it's because he's so pompous with a smile that I get a kick out of it.  That's before the market opens so no harm no foul.  Usually any real commentary comes from the early morning elitists.  It's fun to do a little homework and see just who they are connected too other than the obvious "I work for JPM" people.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22174309 - 09/01/15 02:49 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
The China Blame Game is so absurd as to be already getting obnoxious.  The notion that the US is somehow economically separate from China is preposterous.  Absolutely ridiculous.  We buy literally 3/4 of our cheap goods that are about the only thing going for us from China. 

To somehow imagine that the US is in recovery is another notion that really is getting obnoxious to hear.  Talk about some massaged numbers for an economy not only in debt but that doesn't make anything anymore.

Down we go, this is a GLOBAL selloff CNBC, quit your gum flapping to the contrary...




Tell it like it is, you pull no punches.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22174486 - 09/01/15 03:34 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Usually any real commentary comes from the early morning elitists.



I think you're right.  But as I'm west coast, I'm not usually up early enough.  When I get up, I'm immediately working to parse through headlines and pre-market action, and then it's off to the races.  :dancing:


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22175007 - 09/01/15 06:01 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

well, we got close to that 16k mark, but didnt dip below it.  probably tomorrow, as asia's probably going to sell off tonight off our our lead.

CNBC is great for catching the big picture.  If you ignore the details of every story you read, and just look at the headlines, over time, it paints a very very clear picture of the prevailing trend


"XYZ index closes at new highs!"
"10 new IPOs you should read up on"
"Tesla, to the moon?!?"
"S&P Closes at new highs, Dow off intraday peak"
"Biotech gets stung, utilities get a bump"
"market wandering?  here's how to navigate"
"S&P hits highs, Dow Transports dive"
"Markets stagnant, Transports continue swoon"
--------this is where i get tired of inventing headlines------------
"fear!"
"panic! at the disco"
"Berar!"
"collapse!"
"we've bottomed"


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22175149 - 09/01/15 06:39 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

XYZ is mainly backside dealings, things like waste water, and its directly affected by the roll of QRS & UVW with the QRS depolarizations being tracked in contrast with the Understanding Recreational Vehicles, XYZ is also known for the famous Canadian channel cousin of ABC.


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22175216 - 09/01/15 06:54 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

it took me like 15 seconds to figure out you were bullshitting.  took me all the way to the end;  the QRS & UVW didnt stop me at all, lollercoptor


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
    #22177131 - 09/02/15 06:14 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Kelly Evans is a goddess.  I love it when a woman is so beautiful that she has the confidence (or woke up too late) to leave off the make up.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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OfflinemndfreezeMDiscordReddit
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22181611 - 09/03/15 02:48 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

TravelerOfSorts said:
XYZ is mainly backside dealings, things like waste water, and its directly affected by the roll of QRS & UVW with the QRS depolarizations being tracked in contrast with the Understanding Recreational Vehicles, XYZ is also known for the famous Canadian channel cousin of ABC.




I'm glad when I rolled the dice and randomly picked a shroomerite to base all my investing options on, it was you.  I'm rolling in so much dough now.  Thanks mang, these biscuits will taste great!


--------------------
Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus!

quote]Urb said:
I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: mndfreeze]
    #22186598 - 09/04/15 07:02 AM (8 years, 4 months ago)

Dow Jones off 285 points with 30 minutes until the open. Gotta love it.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Confucian]
    #22187770 - 09/04/15 12:10 PM (8 years, 4 months ago)

with china open monday (after their holiday this week) and the US closed; i'm thinking tuesday's premarket might look worse


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