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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
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Bear Beckons
#22005693 - 07/27/15 05:28 PM (8 years, 6 months ago) |
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So.
Months and months ago I was in agreement with Lunar about some global economic troubles that might come about as a result of the divergences between USD strength and the inability of international players to afford that USD-denominated debt they slurped up during the greenback's long slide this past decade.
We watched the indices bounce all over. Greece (which had been a shitshow for a half-decade) got calamitous. Then the "deal" occurred. Greeks have the memories of drunks; they will forget the panic of this deadline and will, in time, revolt against the (now harsher) imposed austerity by the troika.
China, we are seeing, can not fight the winds of the markets any better than their elder brothers the Soviets could. Sure, in the most extreme of cases China could fully support their equity markets, and any other, all other, markets. But then they're right back where 'ol Comrade Red was 30 years ago. Their recent GDP numbers are already suspicious, with recent producer indices and other metrics coming in at levels that wouldn't indicate 7% GDP growth.
Markets took a 30% hit; then rebounded again, then just got crushed 8.5% in a single trading session. They're poised for more losses on Tuesday, according to the futures marekts. How bad, who knows. I'd reckon if the markets hit -2%/-3% in the early hours of trading that the PBOC will announce something, or just close the market altogether due to a glitch or "foreign hack" or something. I can't imagine anybody feels comfortable with their cash in Chinese equities right now (unless they've no need for liquidity for any reasonable time frame).
Then again, what do i know.
I shifted a lot of my piggybank out of equities back in late may (had been feeling the winds changin for a while)
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Adden

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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
#22007248 - 07/27/15 10:33 PM (8 years, 6 months ago) |
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400 dollar gold and 6 dollar silver 2015!
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Stonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: Adden]
#22009916 - 07/28/15 02:15 PM (8 years, 6 months ago) |
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>400 dollar gold and 6 dollar silver 2015!
All those gals in your sig will ask me to do them before that happens.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
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hi
Dow Transports flirting with Bear label.
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
#22136960 - 08/24/15 06:51 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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I put some more money into JPM today. Buy low and sell high. Stocks are on sale so git while they are cheap and at reasonable PEs. Facebook and netflix... Not so much reasonable PEs
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Confucian
...


Registered: 03/31/09
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Loc: USA
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: I put some more money into JPM today. Buy low and sell high. Stocks are on sale so git while they are cheap and at reasonable PEs. Facebook and netflix... Not so much reasonable PEs
If the market continue to tank (which it will, market hasn't dipped in a few years), JPM will also tank.
Price to earnings really isn't that important. The reason these new companies have extremely high PE ratios is because they are new businesses. There is huge growth potential in their earnings. When their earnings improve then the ratio will shrink back down. JPM was founded in the 1700s, it is a mature stock. YOu wouldn't expect JPM to triple in a year. It is very possible with the right market conditions that Facebook triples in a short time (it quadrupled in the last 2 years).
Why did Netflix go from $9 in December 2011 to over $100 today? Well, they have 42 million subscribers in the US and an additional 23 million monthly subscribers internationally.
That is 65 million subscribers compared to half of that a couple years ago.
Look at Netflix's revenues...
2013 - $4.4 billion 2014 - $5.5 billion 6 months ending June 30, 2015 - $3.2 billion.
A better strategy would be to buy stocks with high PE ratios.
Do you really think JPMs stock is going to skyrocket so high that a year or two from now the PE ratio goes above 20? It's not gonna happen.
PS - JPM stock will come down to low $40s as the market crashes over the next year.
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Stonehenge
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This could be the beginning of the big collapse we have talked about for so long. Many have said it would be this year. China looks like the catalyst, the spark that lit the tinder. Once the general herd starts to panic, there is no turning back. I think maybe we have reached that point. The next few weeks will tell the story.
The great depression did not start in one day, it started with a crash but there were peaks after that which looked like a recovery starting but then it always went back down lower. The reason why it will be hard to come out of this one is because of all that debt. We did not have such levels of debt in the 30's.
What will be the safe haven? I say commodities, I like r/e and also gold, silver is probably good too. I am bearish on cash, so I don't know if I should put more into r/e or maybe gold or what. People have to live somewhere and gold has held its value for thousands of years, much longer than any fiat ever has.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


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I am pretty bummed that the puts I was going to buy immediately started to go up so I held off. This with VIX at 13. Oh well, now they are literally 2500% higher than what I was going to buy them at.
No guts, no glory. Only been talking about this for years.
I actually think the time has come to worry more about essentials like food for instance "just in case". The shut down of the grid will leave most scrambling for their next meal with no eggs on the shelves. Pun intended. At least the texting will cease, some blessing there...
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Stonehenge
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Yeah, I hate that when I have the right idea and chicken out only to see I would have cleaned up. 
You think food will vanish and electricity? I was thinking more of a financial meltdown. We are the food producer of the world so if food gets scarce we will make money, or the big farmers will, we will be paying more. I can see that, prices going nuts which means hyper inflation.
They didn't shut down electricity or have food shortages in the depression, just nobody had much money. This time around there will be plenty of cash but you will need a great deal to buy what you need, much like wiemar Germany last century, Zimbabwe in this century or Venezuela ongoing.
Buying some heirloom seed might be a good investment. Grow it out, make more seed plus you have good food. I would not touch the gm seed but that is another topic. The rest of this year should be interesting.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
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hey kids, while this thread is DEFINITELY the 'bear beckons' thread, it's DEFINITELY NOT the 'world is collapsing' thread.
this is simply a correction back towards what we should be at. we're digesting the gluttony of free cash that has found its way to equities since 2011. i don't know why it took so long for this to happen.
first i thought the russia thing would bring it on; or the USD hyperstrength from earlier this year or the greek madness that ended up not imploding (but NOTE, still isnt over) or the oil swoon or the swoon in hoards of other commodities or China's continually weakening industrial appetite
i still think we have another hafl-as-much to fall
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Stonehenge
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Re: Bear Beckons [Re: memes]
#22142968 - 08/25/15 08:23 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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The stock market is not just a little bubbly, its way overpriced. On the good side, if you time it right you can pick up stocks near the bottom for next to nothing. People got rich doing that in the depression and holding on.
What worries me is the debt crisis. When everyone panics, will interest rates spike or stay low? Will china start cashing in its treasuries? Some say its already started doing that. Will we be able to cover or will there be a run on the bank and lack of liquidity? Will everyone want to dump their treasuries like they are dumping stocks and bonds? Will all countries face financial ruin? What will we do about it?
If there is hyperinflation, our debts will be payable in the less valuable money so that is good. But it means every one suffers greatly especially those who have saved. Paradoxically, those who have great debt and were unwise but managed to hold on will be rewarded.
Will they official declare a recession by the end of sept? Will they blame it on bush?
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
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Quote:
Stonehenge said: Yeah, I hate that when I have the right idea and chicken out only to see I would have cleaned up. 
You think food will vanish and electricity? I was thinking more of a financial meltdown. We are the food producer of the world so if food gets scarce we will make money, or the big farmers will, we will be paying more. I can see that, prices going nuts which means hyper inflation.
They didn't shut down electricity or have food shortages in the depression, just nobody had much money. This time around there will be plenty of cash but you will need a great deal to buy what you need, much like wiemar Germany last century, Zimbabwe in this century or Venezuela ongoing.
Buying some heirloom seed might be a good investment. Grow it out, make more seed plus you have good food. I would not touch the gm seed but that is another topic. The rest of this year should be interesting.
I've been calling for a cyber attack for some time now and it certainly has been "happening" or not happening and a hot PTB topic so that would lead me to believe it's a possibility for power outages or grid outages.
More likely either we support here and bounce back up, or I think Houston we really have a problem.
It's a debt crisis, a credit crisis, and a liquidity crisis. The hyperinflation scenario isn't the concern, it's all these bets placed on derivatives on top of all the sovereign debt. The corporations are actually in pretty decent shape, but the amount of leverage of "the system" is appalling. I think they are over a quadrillion.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Stonehenge
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Yeah but most of those derivatives are canceling each other out. Sort of like a casino that might have a lot of money being bet at any given moment but its not all against the house, some play red, some play black and so on. It could be a problem and likely will but its not like a quadrillion will be lost somehow.
Yeah, hacker grid attacks are possible but those are temporary. We have had so many hacker attacks that there are a slew of new firms specializing in fixing and preventing it. I can't see all electricity being cut off for any length of time but in the summer, even one day is insufferable. Likewise food will still be grown.
Don't discount hyperinflation. We got away with qe mostly because the world is hungry for us dollars, and thinks we are the most stable. Russia, china, brazil, etc have not made much of a dent in that. However, as other countries crank up the printing presses to overdrive, which forces their neighbors to do the same, which forces us to do the same, there will be a currency overload. More money chasing the same goods means higher prices even though we haven't seen much yet.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


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It's not as black and red (black and white?) as you put it on the derivatives. Recently our buddies at JPM and GS wheedled out of some obligations based on their "interpretation" of key words in the contracts. Just because you have insurance doesn't mean the insurer will pay you what you think they owe you.
Sit down, read the prospectus for GLD sometime. It's a good read to see just how much the legalese protects our big banksters in this case once again JPM. As custodian, they should be but really aren't going to be responsible to pay you for the failure of GLD based on one of any number of things happening that make them skip out instead.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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TravelerOfSorts
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Registered: 06/29/11
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it was brought on by me and my investment choices
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Banks are traditionally valued on book value as opposed to growth prospects. A Price to earnings over growth or PEG would be more suitable for netflix. Although I do not expect JPM to deliver huge capital gains, banks' lending margins will increase as the fed increases rates and it is a stock that can be held over many economic cycles, not just until a newer disruptive technology comes along.
Sometimes investing is about matching the average returns and not swinging for the fences (or striking out)
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Stonehenge
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You actually think the fed will raise rates significantly? Why would they do that? It would not only make our debt (more) unsustainable but also hurt the rest of the world. They have been talking about it for over a year but always come up with an excuse not to. Expect more of the same.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
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Quote:
Confucian said:
Why did Netflix go from $9 in December 2011 to over $100 today? Well, they have 42 million subscribers in the US and an additional 23 million monthly subscribers internationally.
That is 65 million subscribers compared to half of that a couple years ago.
Look at Netflix's revenues...
2013 - $4.4 billion 2014 - $5.5 billion 6 months ending June 30, 2015 - $3.2 billion.
A better strategy would be to buy stocks with high PE ratios.Quote:
NFLX stock is an overpriced pig is why! Their PE is 247 and that ain't good. To get that international volume they have to lose money. It's retarded, plain and simple. Losing money to gain business is completely retarded. In fact, it's so retarded that I had to not only say it again, but figure out the best way to short this overpriced pig. Put options, obviously, to chose which ones and when will be the key.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
Edited by LunarEclipse (08/26/15 04:26 PM)
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Registered: 11/25/02
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10 year treasury rates have averaged about 5% historically.
Looking back at 1941 to 1956, don't you think there were people that said rates could never go above 3%? Or in the 80's as people were locking in mortgage rates at 15% fixed, there was no shortage of self-assured purchasers.
Rates will come up from historic lows eventually.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Registered: 11/25/02
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Amazon continues to have ever expanding revenue with almost no profit and a huge pe. For many many years now. Sometimes markets are irrational for long periods
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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