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Shop: Bridgetown Botanicals Bridgetown Botanicals   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Predict it
    #21980076 - 07/22/15 11:57 AM (8 years, 6 months ago)

Has anyone seen this site Predictit.org ? It's basically a derivatives market for political predictions. They found a loop hole in the online gambling laws.

I just bought 100 shares on Hillary losing the Democratic nomination at 25 cents each. I can either sell them to someone else, or wait and if the prediction comes true each share is reimbursed for $1.

I also have a buy order pending for Trump shares at 13 cents. People underestimate how much Americans hate typical politicians, and how racist the GOP electorate really is.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Predict it [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21980424 - 07/22/15 02:11 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

that sounds entertaining and fun.

probably using the same loopholes the fantasy football betting platforms use.  since interpreting the environment requires a skillset, you're not gambling and thus it's not prohibited, or some shit like that.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Predict it [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21982134 - 07/22/15 09:33 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

Good find.

I used to take part in a somewhat similar site called Newsfutures. I used it to bet ( faux money ) on mostly sports, but you could also bet on politics, business, etc. Even how many hurricanes there'd be in a season. I really miss that place. I'm going to check this out now though..


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Predict it [Re: zorbman]
    #21983949 - 07/23/15 10:17 AM (8 years, 6 months ago)

The thing that's retarded about these sites is that they usually have a withdrawal limit so until you like invest 100$ into them you won't be able to withdraw the money or they charge a fee. I already read they charge a 10% fee and the FAQ is huge so finding the loopholes they setup for the users is going to be a bitch all on it's own.


Quote:

Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10% of your profit. There is no fee if you sell your shares at the same price that you paid or a lower price. There is also no charge to open an account with us or to deposit funds via credit card. If you wish to convert some or all of your balance to cash, we charge a 5% processing fee.





so add that into any investment you make. It's fucking obvious hilary is going to be the dem nominee. That is why they have the 850$ limit because a huge fund could come in invest everything they have into this company and tank them for the 1$ return.

It honestly sounds like a gimmick and with so much contract nonsense I would only do small amounts.


Edited by Gorlax (07/23/15 10:21 AM)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Predict it [Re: Gorlax]
    #21984199 - 07/23/15 11:38 AM (8 years, 6 months ago)

Yeah, I looked at it, and it needs a lot of work to get me on board. There were surprisingly few props available for one thing. I guess I got spoiled with Newsfutures.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: Predict it [Re: zorbman]
    #21984845 - 07/23/15 01:30 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

I only deposited $50 with them. Their fees seem OK to me. I'm more concerned about the risk of their website disappearing one day and my money being gone forever. As for the lack of diverse betting options I expect that they will expand once they gain more users.

I think the $850 limit is set to stop people from manipulating the markets which would be easy to do because of the limited liquidity. For every yes prediction there is also a no, so they don't lose money when they pay out the winners. They have no stake in the outcome, they just mediate between the two traders and then take 10% from whoever wins. It seems like a great business model.

Hillary is a terrible candidate. She might win the nomination, but it is far from a sure thing. She has been steadily losing ground in the polls. I'll take 1:4 odds against her all day.


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Predict it [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21987620 - 07/23/15 10:25 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

She's getting the nomination. If she doesn't then I'd be shocked. She is like poster child representative that's why she's been so quite lately. they sure as fuck aren't looking at any of the other dems seriously.

The 850$ thing is put to limit a take over. Imagine putting your life savings on hilary and then she gets the nomination. If it was 25 cents a bid. You'd make 4x what you invested. Subtract a 10% fee and then subtract the 5% to cash fee. You'd make a return of 385% which is by all means excellent. this would then destroy the company because they would not be able to deal with the pay outs, it's a beta version still too. I mean if you really wanted to bet on this shit you could go to a casino website that allows non athletic betting and they would have the money and balls to do a pay out high as fuck.


Once the shares per bid become too close to 1$ they are basically worthless and you'd be making a very small return.

That's all numbers though. I really would also be worried that it would just disable or vanish as well. Probably says somewhere in the TOS that they can do so if they become in violation of something and have to shut down. I mean pump and dumps do it all the fucking time.


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: Predict it [Re: Gorlax]
    #21989974 - 07/24/15 12:02 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

I am pretty sure they have no stake in the outcome because every yes share is offset by a no share.

Hillary is at 75 cents for yes and 25 for no. If yes wins they owe those share holders 25 cents, but they make 25 cents off every no. If No wins they owe them all 75 cents, but they make 75 cents off of every yes. Either way they break even on the payout then take their 10%.

Clinton is the poster child of Washington insiders. Americans want someone who can represent change. Hillary can't represent change. Plus she isn't a relatable or likeable person. Don't forget that at this time 8 years ago every pundit and talking head thought she had the nomination locked up.


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Predict it [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21990845 - 07/24/15 03:27 PM (8 years, 6 months ago)

so if she is 75 cents for yes and if the outcome is true they return you 1$. You would break even once you withdrew the money. It's a scam, you would only win on the completely insane results like No for 25 cents.


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: Predict it [Re: Gorlax]
    #21993607 - 07/25/15 02:40 AM (8 years, 6 months ago)

Like I said I'll take 1:4 odds against Clinton all day, but if you think she's a sure bet then why not take this opportunity for a 33% return on investment?

Maybe this website is a scam, but not for the reason you imply. They make no profits or losses based on the outcome of these predictions. They are not a bookie setting odds and taking bets. The prices of these contracts are set by the bid and ask of the traders.

It's like how stock brokers don't care if you make money or lose money, they just take their commission.


Edited by Dr. P. Silocybin (07/25/15 02:46 AM)


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Predict it [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21993638 - 07/25/15 03:22 AM (8 years, 6 months ago)

No man read the fine print. I'm not going to argue right now. I'm too tired. Why the fuck would they invest money into something that doesn't generate money. This is like a low level off shore casino attempting to loophole through bullshit to do it in the US via other off athletic betting. Especially cuz you have to wait years before a payout it's something that I said I wouldn't stack a lot against. Never said don't throw 50$ that's ok. I'm saying don't' gamble on this like you would a solidified site.. period.. It's beta anyways.


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