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Adden

Registered: 06/04/03
Posts: 39,201
Loc:
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: KauaiOrca]
#21915004 - 07/08/15 01:15 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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After dipping below 15 momentarily yesterday I'd imagine people will panic sell. I unloaded a lot at 32/33 in "panic" mode but I figured it wasn't getting any better anytime soon. I'll miss some of those coins, but that person is long and gone, but they'd want me to have that money.
Wouldn't be surprised if it tested 10.
In 2001/2002 silver was a great buy for a simple ten year return.
At this point I'm tempted to go gold or go home. Yet, I can see that getting 600-800 before any drastic improvements.
Wondering if memes is buying bulk at 10 or if he's waiting on that for now.
If, in ten years, silver hits a high similar to a few years ago then I'll be sitting so pretty.
Also I agree on silver being bulky and hard to store. My credit union gave me a $25/year safety deposit box. God damn, that thing is **heavy**.
I'm moving soon and worried on how to get it from point A to point B.
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DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Adden]
#21915035 - 07/08/15 01:25 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Dys said: In 2001/2002 silver was a great buy for a simple ten year return.
You are only fooling yourself when you cherry pick a narrow historical time to buy and sell to justify the future. I can cherry pick some periods that short selling metals would would have been a great investment too... But I wont because that is meaningless.
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Stonehenge
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: DieCommie]
#21915046 - 07/08/15 01:29 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Since everyone says silver is going down, I say its going up. We shall see.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: DieCommie]
#21915065 - 07/08/15 01:32 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
DieCommie said:
Quote:
Dys said: In 2001/2002 silver was a great buy for a simple ten year return.
You are only fooling yourself when you cherry pick a narrow historical time to buy and sell to justify the future. I can cherry pick some periods that short selling metals would would have been a great investment too... But I wont because that is meaningless.
Everyone's a genius looking back when it comes to picking market turning points, tops and bottoms. A lot harder to do in the moment.
One thing that is for absolute sure, is that the BIG buyers like LOWER prices. The idea that a central bank in China or Russia can horde a lot of gold and somehow then control the global economy is total and complete nonsense. And, the idea that for whatever reason the gold that people "own" doesn't really exist is also sketchy at best. There are very, very wealthy people that pay attention to this stuff. I hear the predictions of the guys that have some coins at home, but the banks that own bars and bars in vaults keep an eye on it.
As more and more people in the global economy get used to buying shares and investing, the appeal of silver and gold, as an investment, will go down. It will get some great fear spikes from time to time, but the biggest buyers of all want the prices to go down so my guess is they'll make it go down … probably gold around $500 and silver around $7.50 ...
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
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DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Stonehenge]
#21915068 - 07/08/15 01:33 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Stonehenge said: Since everyone says silver is going down, I say its going up. We shall see.
I'm sure it will do a bit of both. Then we can cherry pick our data and each declare ourselves correct.
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 3,131
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: DieCommie]
#21915107 - 07/08/15 01:36 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
DieCommie said:
Quote:
Stonehenge said: Since everyone says silver is going down, I say its going up. We shall see.
I'm sure it will do a bit of both. Then we can cherry pick our data and each declare ourselves correct.
But "everyone" isn't saying it's going down. A lot of people are saying it's at a strong resistance level and it "has to go up" from here.
Markets climb on a wall of worry and go down on a slope of hope. That saying is as true today as it was 100 years ago.
Worry is currently going down.
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
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Adden

Registered: 06/04/03
Posts: 39,201
Loc:
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: DieCommie]
#21915263 - 07/08/15 02:18 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
DieCommie said:
Quote:
Dys said: In 2001/2002 silver was a great buy for a simple ten year return.
You are only fooling yourself when you cherry pick a narrow historical time to buy and sell to justify the future. I can cherry pick some periods that short selling metals would would have been a great investment too... But I wont because that is meaningless.
I'm using those dates because it's when I got into silver/gold on top of my coin collections and it paid off. I can admit it was a shot in the dark plus dumb luck. Not cherry picking so I can declare myself "right".
My father invested in gold/silver heavily during that time and sold during its peak. He's doing very well now in his retirement. My investments paid for 3 years of living expenses while I was laid up during a car wreck. Also, a five year chart is too narrow of a time frame. I was further extrapolating the need to look at wider historical trends.
Relax.
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The Phleg
Big Dick Chakra




Registered: 03/07/10
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Adden]
#21915275 - 07/08/15 02:21 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Dys said: My investments paid for 3 years of living expenses while I was laid up during a car wreck.
Well done. 
I'm curious, how many months/years worth of living expenses did you invest into the metals that were sold off?
-------------------- You wanna get high? Drink tap water. --------------------
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 3,131
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Adden]
#21915571 - 07/08/15 03:30 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Dys said:
Quote:
DieCommie said:
Quote:
Dys said: In 2001/2002 silver was a great buy for a simple ten year return.
You are only fooling yourself when you cherry pick a narrow historical time to buy and sell to justify the future. I can cherry pick some periods that short selling metals would would have been a great investment too... But I wont because that is meaningless.
I'm using those dates because it's when I got into silver/gold on top of my coin collections and it paid off. I can admit it was a shot in the dark plus dumb luck. Not cherry picking so I can declare myself "right".
My father invested in gold/silver heavily during that time and sold during its peak. He's doing very well now in his retirement. My investments paid for 3 years of living expenses while I was laid up during a car wreck. Also, a five year chart is too narrow of a time frame. I was further extrapolating the need to look at wider historical trends.
Relax.
For everyone that times it right there are 100 that didn't. Those gold prices didn't get to near $1,900 an oz a few years ago because everyone was selling at the peak. It was the opposite … The prices got that high because people were BUYING at the peak.
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
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Dr. P. Silocybin
Would you like fries with that?



Registered: 09/09/08
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: KauaiOrca]
#21917659 - 07/09/15 12:31 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
KauaiOrca said: they mostly react to fear. As other markets perform better (equities, debt, etc.) metals become less and less attractive. The fear of the end of the world is what drove metal prices parabolic.
Exactly I was banking on the recent increase in investor's fear due to Greece and China to lead to at least a modest gain in precious metals. I understand why they have been going down, and may continue to go down for awhile, but how does this dangerous macroeconomic climate not lead to an increase in precious metals value? Where is the fear buying? Should have played it by shorting oil not going long on silver 
Quote:
KauaiOrca said: price easily manipulated by large buyers.
I really do think that is what is going on here. The banks and investment firms are systematically driving down the price of precious metals.
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Stonehenge
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Registered: 06/20/04
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We know china has been on a buying binge for gold. There must be many central banks that are dumping their reserves on the quiet to raise cash. But that can go only so far. Gold will explode soon, watch and see. If its not up 20% or more by years end I will stop posting in this forum.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Stonehenge]
#21918655 - 07/09/15 09:42 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Stonehenge said: Gold will explode soon, watch and see. If its not up 20% or more by years end I will stop posting in this forum.
Noted. So by Dec. 31, 2015 it will be 20% higher than right now, no matter what happens in the interm? Right now it is 1162.30. 1162.30 + .2*1162.30 = 1394.76.
I don't want to see you go, but I do like that you made a specific prediction. Stick around in either case.
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 3,131
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Stonehenge]
#21918670 - 07/09/15 09:45 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Stonehenge said: We know china has been on a buying binge for gold. There must be many central banks that are dumping their reserves on the quiet to raise cash. But that can go only so far. Gold will explode soon, watch and see. If its not up 20% or more by years end I will stop posting in this forum.
That is a bold prediction given the look of those charts. I don't see it. I see the prices falling … Gold is going to test $1,000 and Silver is going to test $10. AFter that, we may see a sustained rally.
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Stonehenge]
#21918684 - 07/09/15 09:48 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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why not look at silver transport and mining companies for price of the metal compared to wealthy traiders
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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ManianFH
living in perverty


Registered: 07/06/04
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: KauaiOrca]
#21919890 - 07/09/15 12:48 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
KauaiOrca said:
Quote:
Stonehenge said: We know china has been on a buying binge for gold. There must be many central banks that are dumping their reserves on the quiet to raise cash. But that can go only so far. Gold will explode soon, watch and see. If its not up 20% or more by years end I will stop posting in this forum.
That is a bold prediction given the look of those charts. I don't see it. I see the prices falling … Gold is going to test $1,000 and Silver is going to test $10. AFter that, we may see a sustained rally.
I'll be stoked to see silver hit $10. But really don't think it'll happen.
I hear what everyone's saying about how there are other investments and that even silver/gold could go to zero, but IMO that's just as irrational as doomsday preppers who think it'll go to 10k/ounce.
The markets are cyclical and unless I die early silver will hit 40 again before it ever hits zero.
I do hear what you're saying about costs of storage/transport etc... Currently mine is stored at my dad's house and is safe barring some kind of fire (god forbid for their safety). I think selling it tax free is where those costs are made up, unless you're selling bulk or something
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Adden

Registered: 06/04/03
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: ManianFH]
#21920407 - 07/09/15 03:14 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Little off topic but while we are all here:
I made it a point to sell as close to 4k as I could at three different locations once a week. I had walked in with 10 grand worth of Ag and a few ounces of Au my first go around. The girl I was speaking with said anything over 4k has to be reported as income, unless it was a gift or inheritance, and "if she were to do it, she would go to multiple locations and only accept cash".
She said it's harder to prove to the IRS you didn't purchase it, and the best thing to say when selling is nothing. Can anyone confirm or deny? Prices weren't fluctuating more than 25 cents at the time so I don't see any reason as to why she'd lie about it.
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Dr. P. Silocybin
Would you like fries with that?



Registered: 09/09/08
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: Adden]
#21922302 - 07/09/15 09:56 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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I thought $10,000 was the limit, but that might just be for bank deposits. That's how they got Dennis Hastert. Whatever the amount if you don't tell the buyer your name, and you get paid in cash I don't see why the IRS would have to be involved.
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Dr. P. Silocybin
Would you like fries with that?



Registered: 09/09/08
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Actually I think Hastert was taking out $9,000 at a time, but its also illegal to split up deposits or withdrawals with the intent of avoiding reporting the transactions to the IRS.
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KauaiOrca
Waterman


Registered: 08/12/08
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: ManianFH]
#21922990 - 07/10/15 02:51 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
mick said:
I'll be stoked to see silver hit $10. But really don't think it'll happen.
I hear what everyone's saying about how there are other investments and that even silver/gold could go to zero, but IMO that's just as irrational as doomsday preppers who think it'll go to 10k/ounce.
The markets are cyclical and unless I die early silver will hit 40 again before it ever hits zero.
I do hear what you're saying about costs of storage/transport etc... Currently mine is stored at my dad's house and is safe barring some kind of fire (god forbid for their safety). I think selling it tax free is where those costs are made up, unless you're selling bulk or something
It is ridiculous to suggest the price of gold/silver could go down to zero and it's ridiculous to suggest it's going to sky rocket to $5000 an ounce because of some crazy shortage that simply doesn't exist.
There are tons and tons of gold and silver that is vaulted doing absolutely nothing but just sitting there. It will always have some value but as the global economy moves forward, the role of gold and silver will keep changing. Sure, it's considered an inflation hedge by some, but that doesn't mean it's a good one. It's really commodity speculation and not really an investment. Will the price fluctuate? Of course. Could gold fall to $1,000 an ounce or even $500 an ounce? Of course. Oil, a far more important commodity fell from $120 a barrel to below $50 a barrel in a matter of months. That's how commodities work.
-------------------- "The universe is endless, limitless and infinite. Any effort to define it's boundaries is an attempt to overcome ignorance. We are physical, mental and spiritual beings ... there is no beginning and there is no end. There is only memory. Our repeated loss of memory experiences create the illusion of beginnings and ends. Immortality is the ability to retain full memory through all consciousness transformations. Loss of memory is man's greatest curse and, in very real terms, death." -- Ancient Taoist Master
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Stonehenge
Alt Center


Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
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Re: Bottom Finally In For Silver? [Re: KauaiOrca]
#21923521 - 07/10/15 08:06 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Gold and silver have kept their value for thousands, perhaps many tens of thousands of years. Humans all over the world have lusted after precious metals. Jewelry is probably the biggest use and investment secondary. Its not like it was nearly worthless at one time and then became a fad. Fiat money is a fad and every fiat currency has lost eventually 100% of its value. The us dollar has already lost some 98% and is due for a big drop in years to come. Compare that to gold which has always held value.
BTW, I liked Carlos Castaneda's early books. He seemed to have something. But later it just devolved into fiction to bring in the bucks and I lost interest.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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