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InvisibleSwami
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Registered: 01/19/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
The Null Hypothesis
    #2190556 - 12/19/03 03:19 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

For the purpose of this discussion, I will define The Null Hypothesis as a theory that nothing extraordinary is going on (in relation to various topics). This is somewhat different than Occam's Razor although they sometimes overlap.

For example: many threads here have been created concerning coincidence. If the types of coincidences would occur regardless of any mystical direction or cosmic force and the Null Hypothesis adequately explains the happenings, then why (other than for amusement) opt for the Mystical Hypothesis?


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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Invisiblekaiowas
mndfrayze'speppet urme
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Swami]
    #2190591 - 12/19/03 03:32 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

heh damn so you assume that nothing is going on??? evidence?? back the claim???


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

Registered: 03/29/03
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: kaiowas]
    #2190606 - 12/19/03 03:36 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

I think it's a joke, if not, the "Null Hypothesis" simply
defines everything to be ordinary ("nothing extraordinary is going on").
This explains nothing...
it's just a statement...
like saying "the world is"...


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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OfflineFrog
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Swami]
    #2190607 - 12/19/03 03:36 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

If the null hypothesis adequately explains something that I have used "magic" to explain previously, then I will change my way of thinking on that topic.

I still think, though, that there is more going on in the universe than meets the eye, that can't be explained using logic.


--------------------
The day will come when, after harnessing the ether, the winds, the tides, gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of love. And, on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire.  -Teilard


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InvisibleTrueBrode
Stranger

Registered: 11/03/03
Posts: 287
Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Swami]
    #2190633 - 12/19/03 03:41 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

I think it would help to cite some more specific examples other than synchronicity, but in general, science usually gives names to things- it says that subject A does this and this to subject B and then that is why such and such happens, but it has not (yet) explained why many things come to be, so the mystical or the divine is used to finish off the explanation, usually in a more optimistic light to comfort people.

When it comes to synchronicity, what scientific explanation do you have that makes the mystical irrelevant here? Yeah sure, it may all be coincidence, and it probably is, but there is that slim chance that it may not be, so I do not think it hurts to entertain mystical/spiritual ideas. I just wish people did not state their theories or beliefs as facts, and admit it when they are proven wrong.


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InvisibleSwami
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: lucid]
    #2190656 - 12/19/03 03:48 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

No it is not a joke.

Superstition is a form of magical thinking. *overheard in a casino* "I always win when my wife sits on my right." Now this may seem silly to many of you, but to me it is no sillier than much of the nonsense bantered about here.

Let's try a real-world example: A train crashes, killing 148 of 155 passengers. The survivors believe that they were spared as God had some purpose for them yet to fulfill. Thousands of computer simulations of the event shows that a similar number of people will survive.

The Null Hypothesis explains the survival of the passengers equally as well (if not better) as the God Hypothesis, so why put the magic in a random event?


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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Invisiblekaiowas
mndfrayze'speppet urme
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Swami]
    #2190677 - 12/19/03 03:51 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

yeah sure who is to say what is and what isn't. can you swami???


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

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Posts: 6,319
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Swami]
    #2190709 - 12/19/03 03:59 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

"The Null Hypothesis explains the survival of the passengers "
well, technically, the Null Hypothesis doesn't explain the
survival of the passengers, rather it defines that the survival
of the passengers was "ordinary" (whatever that means).
The God Hypothesis essentially suggests that it was
"all meant to be" (when u break it down logically - i.e. those
who survived were meant to, by God's will etc).
In a nut shell I think both hypothesis are saying something
similar, except the latter (God hyp) is implying that there
is an external entity and the rest of the properties commonly
associated with that entity. There is no proof either way for
the latter. Also, there is no proof either way that my salt
shaker is not currently governing cosmic events. In the end
it comes down to which model is more useful - if any is
better at all, or even required. Personally, I'm intrugied
by my own need to "explain" things and a seemingly intrinsic
primitive desire to associate "meaning" and "value" to things.
If this desire is strong, then one can see why the God Hypothesis
is so tempting.
I guess I've said a lot without really saying anything :frown:
but then what is saying something... :smirk:
too much Meditation for me :nut:


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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Invisiblekaiowas
mndfrayze'speppet urme
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: lucid]
    #2190715 - 12/19/03 04:01 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

hehe are you seeing the absurdity in things as well??  :smile:


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

Registered: 03/29/03
Posts: 6,319
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: kaiowas]
    #2190734 - 12/19/03 04:04 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

kaiowas said:
hehe are you seeing the absurdity in things as well??  :smile:




yea, it's like everytime I start talking or thinking I realize
how utterly pointless it is and my mind quiets down...


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: lucid]
    #2190737 - 12/19/03 04:05 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

but another part of me doesn't want to stop, it wants
"resolution"...of what ? I have no idea...
I am a mystery unto myself...


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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Invisiblekaiowas
mndfrayze'speppet urme
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: lucid]
    #2190774 - 12/19/03 04:14 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

hmm when you quiet down the clarity comes :smile:  then you can disperse your energy at will.  but really thoughI feel ya on wanting to keep going, I still do sometimes.  I am a feeble human you see


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: kaiowas]
    #2190777 - 12/19/03 04:15 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

kaiowas said:
hmm when you quiet down the clarity comes :smile:  then you can disperse your energy at will.  but really thoughI feel ya on wanting to keep going, I still do sometimes.  I am a feeble human you see




arn't we all :sun:


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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InvisibleSclorch
Clyster

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Registered: 07/13/99
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Swami]
    #2190782 - 12/19/03 04:17 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

As expected, I fully support this theory.
I think I have an answer to your question...

Swami: If the types of coincidences would occur regardless of any mystical direction or cosmic force and the Null Hypotesis adequately explains the happenings, then why (other than for amusement) opt for the Mystical Hypothesis?

Because many people find comfort in concepts "greater than themselves." I think this may be linked to what Professor Stanley Milgram calls a deep-seated sense of duty to authority. I take it a step further and claim that most people actively seek answers from authority figures, real or imaginary. It's an issue of confidence and fear in the face of uncertainty (this keeps coming up, just like free will vs. determinism).

To more specifically answer your question: when the answer is hard to come by or there is no answer currently available (my personal favorite conclusion), there is a tendency for one to reach for the mystical answer. Some will find solace in the more common sources (i.e. Christianity, Islam, etc.) and others, who have admittedly had bad experiences with mainstream mysticism, will find consolation in the fringe mysticism (i.e. wicca, astrology, aliens, elves, etc.).


--------------------
Note: In desperate need of a cure...


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Invisiblekaiowas
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Sclorch]
    #2190790 - 12/19/03 04:19 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

yeah it's like how religion works the same way like a safety net. in the end though it brings more baggage then relief.


--------------------
Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

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Posts: 6,319
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Sclorch]
    #2190791 - 12/19/03 04:20 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Sclorch said:
As expected, I fully support this theory.
I think I have an answer to your question...

Swami:  If the types of coincidences would occur regardless of any mystical direction or cosmic force and the Null Hypotesis adequately explains the happenings, then why (other than for amusement) opt for the Mystical Hypothesis?

Because many people find comfort in concepts "greater than themselves."  I think this may be linked to what Professor Stanley Milgram calls a deep-seated sense of duty to authority.  I take it a step further and claim that most people actively seek answers from authority figures, real or imaginary.  It's an issue of confidence and fear in the face of uncertainty (this keeps coming up, just like free will vs. determinism).

To more specifically answer your question: when the answer is hard to come by or there is no answer currently available (my personal favorite conclusion), there is a tendency for one to reach for the mystical answer.  Some will find solace in the more common sources (i.e. Christianity, Islam, etc.) and others, who have admittedly had bad experiences with mainstream mysticism, will find consolation in the fringe mysticism (i.e. wicca, astrology, aliens, elves, etc.).




you forgot leprechauns (not to be confused with elves)... :smirk:


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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OfflineSpecialEd
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: Swami]
    #2190801 - 12/19/03 04:24 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

then why (other than for amusement) opt for the Mystical Hypothesis?




you assume that people consciosly choose Mystical Hypothesis.  Aren't you familiar with astrology?  Some people (like myself, cancer) are naturally intuitive and creative due to our astrological sign.  These traits lend themselves to magical thinking.  If more people were born under rational signs, we wouldn't have this problem with ridiculous explanations. :smile:


--------------------
"Plus one upvote +1..."
--- //
-- :meff:
  /l_l\/
--\-/----


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: SpecialEd]
    #2190810 - 12/19/03 04:27 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

indeed. You forget Swami, that God instilled the belief in God
in us. And I quote my mom (the foremost authority on God) that
God himself has written that He exists. There, proven :nut:


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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OfflineSpecialEd
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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: lucid]
    #2190813 - 12/19/03 04:29 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Don't forget, an omnipotent God can affirm his own consequence without being fallicious.


--------------------
"Plus one upvote +1..."
--- //
-- :meff:
  /l_l\/
--\-/----


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Offlinelucid
Jack's AlteredConsciousness

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Re: The Null Hypothesis [Re: SpecialEd]
    #2190820 - 12/19/03 04:30 PM (12 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

SpecialEd said:
Don't forget, an omnipotent God can affirm his own consequence without being fallicious.




quick, what's the sound of one mind collapsing ?  :crazy2:


--------------------
"no-mind un-thinks no-thought..."


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