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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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The Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates until at least 2016 if then
    #21819477 - 06/17/15 03:36 PM (8 years, 7 months ago)

If they are waiting for this economy to show growth.  Unemployment?  Real unemployment is probably at least 15.4% or 10% higher than government "figures".  Unfortunately they stopped keeping track of layoffs due to "budget constraints".

September 2015 rate hike?  No way. 

Next year?  Even weaker economy, better "be patient" some more...

Face it, the economy is going downhill, not uphill, and more funny money won't be bringing back all those jobs lost by layoffs.  The Fed has been "talking about" raising rates for years, and that jawboning is going to continue IMO.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: The Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates until at least 2016 if then [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21820301 - 06/17/15 07:01 PM (8 years, 7 months ago)

The whole thing is a farce. When yellen says rates will go up later this year, the big boys have a good laugh while the little guys think its true. Even if there were a real improvement in the economy they still would not get away with a hike. No interest hikes with all that debt overhanging.

The only improvement has been in the rhetoric coming from cheerleaders in the media.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: The Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates until at least 2016 if then [Re: Stonehenge]
    #21820860 - 06/17/15 09:01 PM (8 years, 7 months ago)

Blackrock 2015 investment outlook
GROWTH AND POLICY
} U.S. growth is on an upswing.
We expect the Fed to start
raising rates in 2015 and the
yield curve to flatten.



Can you explain yield curve flattening to me please or any flattening because i think its more then what you see


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a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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Invisiblememes
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Re: The Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates until at least 2016 if then [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #21822252 - 06/18/15 03:57 AM (8 years, 7 months ago)

the 'yield curve' is the end-result of plotting the various yields of bonds of various maturity lengths.  %yield is plotted on the Y axis and time on the X axis.

The end result is a yield curve, usually resembling a logarithmic function, as short-term loans (aka bonds) warrant a lower interest rate (in normal environments) than long-term loans, since the borrower gets to use the cash for longer.  Obviously you'd charge me more for a 3-year $1000 loan than you would for a 3-hour $1000 loan.

The 'flattening' of the yield curve would imply that either the front end was raising (relative to the tail), thus flattening... or the tail end was falling relative to the front, thus flattening.  In this instance, I would assume Blackrock is talking about the front-end rising up and flattening out the yield curve



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: The Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates until at least 2016 if then [Re: memes]
    #21823029 - 06/18/15 10:21 AM (8 years, 7 months ago)

I get the feeling that we're going to get a hike by the Fed in September or December this year.  This based on the fact that - while there isn't a consensus amongst the Federal Reserve's individual members with respect to exactly when or how much to raise rates - the individual members do in aggregate have a baseline expectation to raise rates at least once this year.  Couple this with the action in the bond markets (rising yields) and to a lesser extent a slow but steady march higher in the banking sector, it just seems like a decent job has been done to prepare the markets for such a move.  That said, I do think the Fed has its hands tied with respect to a meaningful and rapid rise in interest rates.  In my view, they'll raise once or twice over the next 9 months and then sit on their hands for the foreseeable future because the limited growth of our economy in conjunction with our high debt levels would seem not to allow for anything more dramatic.


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