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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Stocks to short = make your picks
    #21787127 - 06/10/15 09:03 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

There have to be many many stocks to short, and when this Fed created bull aka bubble monster of a rally breaks, will go down to a fraction of their currently lofty valuations.

Here are a few picks to go short:

1.  Tesla (TSLA) - current price $256.  Their CFO resigned an hour ago, that can't be good.  Their CEO is truly a slickster con man but the car is cool and he does impress people.  Now it's batteries, we can't make money on cars, but now we are selling batteries.  The car is completely overpriced, with batteries that will need to be replaced at some point at about 1/2 the price of the car.  Stock was trading in the low 30s back in 2013.  Target = first support 185 range, after that kiss this one goodbye.

2.  Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) - current price $606 a share.  It's a restaurant chain, people!  What happens when someone finds a chihuahua in their burrito?  The pork episode didn't seem to hurt, but a real dog?  Even a chi chi one?  Not good.  39x earnings, really?

3.  Netflix (NFLX)- Really?  650 a share and 166x earnings?  Try 475 first "support" then 340 next support.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21787721 - 06/10/15 12:20 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

I think you need to wait to see signs of a meaningful break in any of these before going short.  They're just too strong with too much momentum behind them.

In the case of CMG, the 39x multiple is justified by the company's growth rate.  It's PEG (price to earnings ratio divided by growth) is still under 2x, which is where a growth stock starts to look expensive to me.

NFLX on the other hand, well, I suppose all you can say is that the stock has been under-owned.  It does seem very expensive to me on a valuation basis, but they are obviously the major player in transforming the way consumers receive video media (although I think AAPL could ultimately become a disruptor here - but it hasn't happened yet).  It will be interesting to see how the added liquidity from NFLX's impending stock split will affect the stock.  Frankly, the stock does look extended and I have a hard time buying it up here, but I've been saying that for a while, and missing out on a lot of profit because of it!

TSLA, no comment.  It's clearly trading on future optimism and is way overvalued based on the current metrics.  Still, optimism can keep a momentum stock running for longer than you can stay solvent as a short!

As I first said, I think you need to see a meaningful break first, attempting to pick a top is a fool's errand, as what can appear to be a top is really just a high base of consolidation until/unless there is a breakdown of support.  You can either short on the break, or wait for a throw-back toward prior support-turned resistance, and short at a failure there.  The airlines come to mind as a great example, looking at UAL and LUV.  This is where the short action is, and where I made some scratch shorting UAL last month.  I would look for LUV to fail at $36-$37 and UAL at around $55 for a possible short entry.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: geokills]
    #21793459 - 06/11/15 05:19 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I think you need to wait to see signs of a meaningful break in any of these before going short.  They're just too strong with too much momentum behind them.

In the case of CMG, the 39x multiple is justified by the company's growth rate.  It's PEG (price to earnings ratio divided by growth) is still under 2x, which is where a growth stock starts to look expensive to me.

NFLX on the other hand, well, I suppose all you can say is that the stock has been under-owned.  It does seem very expensive to me on a valuation basis, but they are obviously the major player in transforming the way consumers receive video media (although I think AAPL could ultimately become a disruptor here - but it hasn't happened yet).  It will be interesting to see how the added liquidity from NFLX's impending stock split will affect the stock.  Frankly, the stock does look extended and I have a hard time buying it up here, but I've been saying that for a while, and missing out on a lot of profit because of it!

TSLA, no comment.  It's clearly trading on future optimism and is way overvalued based on the current metrics.  Still, optimism can keep a momentum stock running for longer than you can stay solvent as a short!

As I first said, I think you need to see a meaningful break first, attempting to pick a top is a fool's errand, as what can appear to be a top is really just a high base of consolidation until/unless there is a breakdown of support.  You can either short on the break, or wait for a throw-back toward prior support-turned resistance, and short at a failure there.  The airlines come to mind as a great example, looking at UAL and LUV.  This is where the short action is, and where I made some scratch shorting UAL last month.  I would look for LUV to fail at $36-$37 and UAL at around $55 for a possible short entry.




I'm looking for the overall market to peak out before initiating any short positions.  The latest bounce doesn't make that too likely at least for now.

Apparently NFLX could split as much as 30:1 which is absurd.  It makes the case to keep going up as the 100 share buyers can now afford to load up on it.  The Amazon approach to taking over the world while losing money is hard to fight when people don't seem to care about profitability.  I think NFLX lost 73 million last quarter buying business which doesn't seem to bright to me but the people keep bidding it up.


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OfflineKingKnowledge
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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21795406 - 06/12/15 12:59 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

I would highly advise against shorting a company like Tesla. Innovative genius of a CEO? The most hype/news coverage I've ever seen for a car company? Expansion into the battery market with the Tesla home battery? Sure, it could go down to $200 temporarily, but this guy is fucking smart.


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: KingKnowledge]
    #21845146 - 06/23/15 10:32 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

tesla is all over magazines pop science road & track


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #21852365 - 06/24/15 10:24 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

NFLX hit 706 today, closed at 678 on huge volume.  Carl Icahn sold his stake after a huge runup.  It's going to split 7 for 1 so under 100.  We shall see if it can "retest 700" and go over 100...


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21855235 - 06/25/15 03:33 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Yeah, yesterday was a great short opportunity on NFLX for sure, I missed it.  Follow through today.  Probably stays weak for a while.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: geokills]
    #21860937 - 06/26/15 07:13 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Yeah, yesterday was a great short opportunity on NFLX for sure, I missed it.  Follow through today.  Probably stays weak for a while.




Already at 650.  Will be curious to see what it does after this split.


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Re: Stocks to short = make your picks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21890870 - 07/03/15 02:11 AM (5 years, 7 months ago)

:takingnotes:


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