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berdinwall
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Math paradox, whats the answer?
#21191578 - 01/28/15 01:14 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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alright...so say you're flipping a quarter 10 times
and you flip heads 9 times in a row....are the odds that the last flip will be tails greater because of the previous flips? or still 50/50?
Someone once told me it was a matter of statistics. does statistics break down to true math? or do you just add a factor of statistics into the original 50/50 probability?
is there a proven mathematical answer?
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Edited by berdinwall (01/28/15 01:15 PM)
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DrRedBush
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall] 6
#21191587 - 01/28/15 01:16 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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I'm pretty sure it's still 50/50
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SoloTrip
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: DrRedBush] 1
#21191596 - 01/28/15 01:18 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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A woman who gives birth to 5 girls might be convinced that her 6th child will be a boy because the odds of having 6 girls are so low. She would be wrong. The odds are 50/50 same as the rest.
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psi
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: DrRedBush]
#21191597 - 01/28/15 01:19 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
DrRedBush said: I'm pretty sure it's still 50/50
Yep.
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Faustoid
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: psi]
#21191600 - 01/28/15 01:20 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
psi said:
Quote:
DrRedBush said: I'm pretty sure it's still 50/50
Yep.
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Me_Roy
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Faustoid] 3
#21191604 - 01/28/15 01:21 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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And it's not a paradox.
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psi
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Me_Roy]
#21191610 - 01/28/15 01:23 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yeah that too.
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berdinwall
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Faustoid]
#21191616 - 01/28/15 01:24 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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ok if you had to bet your last $500 on heads or tails for the last flip, which would you choose?
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Edited by berdinwall (01/28/15 01:25 PM)
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Faustoid
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall]
#21191626 - 01/28/15 01:26 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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First one that comes to mind. In a high school science class I guessed correctly about 20 times in a row while a friend flipped as fast as he could. Only stopped cause the teacher yelled at us. My friend was baffled.
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Uzziel
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall]
#21191632 - 01/28/15 01:27 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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It doesn't matter what you choose. Assuming it's a fair coin, the probability of it being one or the other is nearly the same.
The only thing that could make this untrue is if the coin was weighted unequally or the person tossing the coin has a super computer brain and can predict the exact rotation and how it will land
AKA....
Just pick one and pray to god/allah/spaghettimonster/etc
But this is not a paradox at all. This is really basic math.
Edited by Uzziel (01/28/15 01:28 PM)
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Faustoid
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Faustoid]
#21191643 - 01/28/15 01:29 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Now, if it was a person doing flips and they landed on their tail 9 times. I would be inclined to bet he would fail the tenth time and once more land on his tail. This one IS a matter of statistics.
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searching



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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall]
#21191645 - 01/28/15 01:29 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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It's 50/50. It's proven by some probability theorem. I'm too lazy to look it up but I remember from statistics class.
Do you think that flipping heads 9 times in a row has any effect on physically making it more probable the next time? No, because you're still flipping a coin with a 50/50 chance.
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The Doobie Dude


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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: searching]
#21191652 - 01/28/15 01:31 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Math is not real
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"There are a million reasons to drink and one just popped into my head. If a man can't drink when he's living how the Hell can he drink when he's dead?" - Irish Limerick I PLURed once because it was PLUR or die. - D.M.T.
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berdinwall
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: searching]
#21191658 - 01/28/15 01:32 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
searching said: It's 50/50. It's proven by some probability theorem. I'm too lazy to look it up but I remember from statistics class.
Do you think that flipping heads 9 times in a row has any effect on physically making it more probable the next time? No, because you're still flipping a coin with a 50/50 chance.
yeah I kind of do...because it seems true to say "chances are its not gonna stay heads for long "
you really wouldn't be wrong imo
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zappaisgod
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: SoloTrip]
#21191661 - 01/28/15 01:33 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
SoloTrip said: A woman who gives birth to 5 girls might be convinced that her 6th child will be a boy because the odds of having 6 girls are so low. She would be wrong. The odds are 50/50 same as the rest.
Not necessarily. There might be biological reasons that predispose her and her mate to kicking out girls. For instance the sperm that carry the X chromosome are more robust but slower than those carrying the Y chromosome. The cervical and fallopian environment in her body might be inhospitable and favor stronger sperm over slower sperm.
I would bet on her having another girl unless she took measures to favor Y sperm.
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Shroomslip
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The chance you get heads again is 100% because you're obviously using a double sided coin and there's 0 chance you'd get tails with a double sided coin.
I'd actually like to see the answer on this one.. My gut tells me it's not 50/50. I mean yes flipping the coin is still a 50/50 chance, but theoretically don't you have to factor in the fact that you've just "beaten the odds" 9 times? Does it change the 50/50 chance of the coin itself? No. but statistically speaking, doesn't the percentage of it finally being tails go up?
That's why I'd like to see the concrete answer. I have conflicting logic running through my head.
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Patlal
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Shroomslip]
#21191694 - 01/28/15 01:41 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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100% sure that you have 50/50 chance of getting heads or tails.
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Uzziel
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Shroomslip]
#21191708 - 01/28/15 01:44 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Shroomslip said: The chance you get heads again is 100% because you're obviously using a double sided coin and there's 0 chance you'd get tails with a double sided coin.
I'd actually like to see the answer on this one.. My gut tells me it's not 50/50. I mean yes flipping the coin is still a 50/50 chance, but theoretically don't you have to factor in the fact that you've just "beaten the odds" 9 times? Does it change the 50/50 chance of the coin itself? No. but statistically speaking, doesn't the percentage of it finally being tails go up?
That's why I'd like to see the concrete answer. I have conflicting logic running through my head.
No. It's always 50/50. Why would the probability change just because you flip it a few times? It's called random.
Now let X = # flips you do.
Take the limit as X-> infinity and you will see it converge to 50/50. There are only two outcomes. A few lucky flips is nothing. Probable - not exactly, impossible? Definitely not. You could theoretically always flip heads, will it happen in reality? No. But could it happen? Sure.
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psi
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: searching]
#21191736 - 01/28/15 01:51 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
searching said: It's 50/50. It's proven by some probability theorem. I'm too lazy to look it up but I remember from statistics class.
Do you think that flipping heads 9 times in a row has any effect on physically making it more probable the next time? No, because you're still flipping a coin with a 50/50 chance.
Yeah 9 heads in a row is unlikely (1 in 512 I believe) and 10 is half as likely as that (1 in 1024), but when you flip the coin the tenth time it's 1 in 2 like any of the other flips. Any other specific sequence of 10 flips (e.g. heads, tails, tails, heads, heads, tails, tails, tails, heads, tails) would also be 1 in 1024, but that example sequence has no special meaning to us so we don't give a shit about its "unlikeliness". The distribution of heads and tails in that sequence (4 heads, 6 tails) would be considerably less rare, but my point is that the coins don't know or care about which sequences of events we might assign significance to.
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berdinwall
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: psi]
#21191801 - 01/28/15 02:12 PM (9 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
psi said: but my point is that the coins don't know or care about which sequences of events we might assign significance to.
best point yet but you guys keep saying little strings of words that would argue your point.
such as "considerably less rare" and uzziel said "probable? not exactly"
if these weren't contributing factors in your equation you shouldn't have brought them up....if they account for something they do, if they don't they don't which is it?
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