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 blutigmetzger
Strange
Registered: 10/14/13
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 Re: Math paradox, whats the answer?  [Re: berdinwall]
#21191869 - 01/28/15 02:28 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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The previous flips have nothing to do with the final flip. They way they land do not affect the actual flip of the coin. The only real way that they would come into play considering the likelihood of getting another heads is if you were to ask, "The first 9 flips are heads, what are the odds that the 10th will be heads as well?"
Bottom line probability reigns. Statistically it is a rarity, but there is no greater chance one way or the other when each individual flip is taken into account on their own.
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 psi
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall]
#21191892 - 01/28/15 02:33 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Let's say earlier flips did affect the probability of later flips somehow. I get heads 9 times in a row and the flipping motion of the coin is influenced by some mystery force so that it's more likely to come up tails to "correct its mistake".
Ok, but what if I find out that before I did my 9 flips, the following even more unlikely sequence happened: (9 heads, then 9 tails, then 9 heads, then 9 tails, then 9 heads, then 9 tails.) If I get a tail next, then the coin flips are continuing a sequence that's far more unlikely than just getting 10 in a row. Which takes precedence? How far back in the history of this coin to we have to go in order to guess which unlikely sequence it's trying to avoid on the next flip?
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koods
Ribbit
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: SoloTrip]
#21191896 - 01/28/15 02:33 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
SoloTrip said:
A woman who gives birth to 5 girls might be convinced that her 6th child will be a boy because the odds of having 6 girls are so low. She would be wrong. The odds are 50/50 same as the rest.
Sexing is not completely random like a coin flip. There may be a biological reason she is pumping out girls.
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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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berdinwall
<3 whooooshhh
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: psi]
#21191950 - 01/28/15 02:46 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
psi said:
Let's say earlier flips did affect the probability of later flips somehow. I get heads 9 times in a row and the flipping motion of the coin is influenced by some mystery force so that it's more likely to come up tails to "correct its mistake".
Ok, but what if I find out that before I did my 9 flips, the following even more unlikely sequence happened: (9 heads, then 9 tails, then 9 heads, then 9 tails, then 9 heads, then 9 tails.) If I get a tail next, then the coin flips are continuing a sequence that's far more unlikely than just getting 10 in a row. Which takes precedence? How far back in the history of this coin to we have to go in order to guess which unlikely sequence it's trying to avoid on the next flip?
I cant answer your questions but I don't think you can answer mine either.
I think if you ran the original scenario out infinity times, it may come out to 50/50 whether the 10th flip is heads or tails.
However, if you walked up to a roulette table and saw the last 9 spins were black, what would you put your money on? What would most people put their money on?
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koods
Ribbit
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall]
#21191972 - 01/28/15 02:51 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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If there is something "off" about the coin that is making it end on tails, then definitely you would want to bet tails.
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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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koods
Ribbit
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall] 1
#21191986 - 01/28/15 02:53 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
berdinwall said:
Quote:
psi said:
Let's say earlier flips did affect the probability of later flips somehow. I get heads 9 times in a row and the flipping motion of the coin is influenced by some mystery force so that it's more likely to come up tails to "correct its mistake".
Ok, but what if I find out that before I did my 9 flips, the following even more unlikely sequence happened: (9 heads, then 9 tails, then 9 heads, then 9 tails, then 9 heads, then 9 tails.) If I get a tail next, then the coin flips are continuing a sequence that's far more unlikely than just getting 10 in a row. Which takes precedence? How far back in the history of this coin to we have to go in order to guess which unlikely sequence it's trying to avoid on the next flip?
I cant answer your questions but I don't think you can answer mine either.
I think if you ran the original scenario out infinity times, it may come out to 50/50 whether the 10th flip is heads or tails.
However, if you walked up to a roulette table and saw the last 9 spins were black, what would you put your money on? What would most people put their money on?
If it is a proper roulette table then you wouldn't put your money on it because roulette is stupid.
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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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psi
TOAST N' JAM
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall]
#21191988 - 01/28/15 02:53 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
berdinwall said:
I cant answer your questions but I don't think you can answer mine either.
I'm not clear on what's still confusing you, but I was trying to show that the assumption that the coin is trying to "break unlikely combos" leads to some muddy waters.
Quote:
I think if you ran the original scenario out infinity times, it may come out to 50/50 whether the 10th flip is heads or tails.
However, if you walked up to a roulette table and saw the last 9 spins were black, what would you put your money on? What would most people put their money on?
I would not bet at all and the earlier spins would have no bearing on my decision. I couldn't say what most people would do.
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psi
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: berdinwall]
#21192060 - 01/28/15 03:11 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
berdinwall said:
Quote:
psi said:
but my point is that the coins don't know or care about which sequences of events we might assign significance to.
best point yet but you guys keep saying little strings of words that would argue your point.
such as "considerably less rare" and uzziel said "probable? not exactly"
if these weren't contributing factors in your equation you shouldn't have brought them up....if they account for something they do, if they don't they don't which is it?
I didn't respond to this directly before because you're being rather vague about what you're asking.
If I'm about to flip a coin 10 times:
The chances of getting this sequence:
heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads
are 1 in 1024 (i.e. (1 in 2)^10 because 10 flips).
The chances of getting this specific sequence:
heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, tails
are also 1 in 1024, just as likely.
But, the chances in general of getting 9 heads and 1 tail out of 10 flips are 10 in 1024, because there are 10 different sequences that satisfy that requirement (tails on the first toss, on the second toss, etc). All but one of those sequences (the one where the tail occurs last) are ruled out as possibilities after getting 9 heads in a row though, so the fact that we are "more likely to get one tail than no tails" in general doesn't favor either outcome on the last toss after 9 heads.
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KingKnowledge
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: psi]
#21192086 - 01/28/15 03:16 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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It's not a paradox; there are two different answers deepening on whether you are considering the 10th flip as an independent trial, or as part of 10 trials.
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koods
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: psi] 2
#21192095 - 01/28/15 03:17 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Wow. This is really way too complicated considering this simple fact: Each toss is independent of what happened before.
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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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KingKnowledge
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: koods]
#21192119 - 01/28/15 03:22 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
Wow. This is really way too complicated considering this simple fact: Each toss is independent of what happened before.
That may be true. However, the probability of flipping 10 heads in a row may be less than the probability of flipping 9 heads and then a tails.
http://www.khanacademy.org/math/cc-seventh-grade-math/cc-7th-probability-statistics/cc-7th-compound-events/v/compound-probability-of-independent-events
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psi
TOAST N' JAM
Registered: 09/05/99
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Quote:
KingKnowledge said:
Quote:
koods said:
Wow. This is really way too complicated considering this simple fact: Each toss is independent of what happened before.
That may be true. However, the probability of flipping 10 heads in a row may be less than the probability of flipping 9 heads and then a tails.
All 1024 possible sequences from 10 flips are equally likely. Disregarding order though, you're 10 times as likely to get 9 heads and 1 tail as you are to get 10 heads.
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Algo
Backstrap Fever
Registered: 12/15/14
Posts: 3,857
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: psi]
#21192174 - 01/28/15 03:34 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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if your chances are 50/50 the probability can never be changed. heres a question if you were to hold a hypithetical stick in your hand and swing it back and forth how long would the stick have be, so that the tip moved at the speed of light?
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Patlal
You ask too many questions
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Algo]
#21192183 - 01/28/15 03:35 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
AlgoRythm said:
if your chances are 50/50 the probability can never be changed. heres a question if you were to hold a hypithetical stick in your hand and swing it back and forth how long would the stick have be, so that the tip moved at the speed of light?
It has nothing to do with the lenght of the stick
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koods
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Patlal] 2
#21192307 - 01/28/15 03:58 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Patlal said:
Quote:
AlgoRythm said:
if your chances are 50/50 the probability can never be changed. heres a question if you were to hold a hypithetical stick in your hand and swing it back and forth how long would the stick have be, so that the tip moved at the speed of light?
It has nothing to do with the lenght of the stick
Sounds like something someone with a short stick would say.
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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Alexestalex
fallen angel
Registered: 03/20/12
Posts: 5,644
Loc: heart of the sun
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Wow shroomery is st00pid
OP actually thinks this is a mathematical paradox when it's just simple probability lmfao
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Stay far from timid, only make moves when your heart's in it.
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koods
Ribbit
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Algo]
#21192327 - 01/28/15 04:03 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
AlgoRythm said:
if your chances are 50/50 the probability can never be changed. heres a question if you were to hold a hypithetical stick in your hand and swing it back and forth how long would the stick have be, so that the tip moved at the speed of light?
Two reasons why this wouldn't work. One, the energy you impart on the stick can only travel the length of the stick at the speed of sound (mechanical pressure wave in a medium. Two, there isn't enough energy in the universe to accelerate the tip of the stick to the speed of light since an objects mass increases to infinity at the speed of light it would require an infinite amount of force to accelerate it.
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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Algo
Backstrap Fever
Registered: 12/15/14
Posts: 3,857
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: koods]
#21192349 - 01/28/15 04:09 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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I understand that completely, but the question is only hyperthetical obviously it would never work but if a stick that long acted as a stick that were 5 feet long, then there would be a mathmatical answer. i think i will spend the night figuring it out, ill get back to ya. lol
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searching
Registered: 06/08/11
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: Alexestalex]
#21192415 - 01/28/15 04:24 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Alexestalex said:
Wow shroomery is st00pid
OP actually thinks this is a mathematical paradox when it's just simple probability lmfao
Yeah only on the shroomery would this require this much discussion.  just kidding though there are a lot of really smart people on here.
The answer is it's 50/50 though.
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berdinwall
<3 whooooshhh
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Re: Math paradox, whats the answer? [Re: searching]
#21193669 - 01/28/15 08:03 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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I just think its bs. I get yalls point but id bet most of you put your money on it not being heads again on the 10th flip
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