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Distorted Vision
The best. Of the worst.
Registered: 07/30/09
Posts: 4,292
Loc: Indiana
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Quote:
CHeifM4sterDiezL said: If he noes that i know he knows then ima switch the case cuz I know he knows that I know and he knows that he knows that so knowing that he'd think i'd likely switch cuz i know he knows and knowing that he knows wouldnt ask me to switch unless it was the wrong case but knowing that id likly switch because that he knows he probaly would ask me to switch if i infact had the right case. so i would stay with the same case knowing that he would know that he knew which case was whioch and ask me to switch the correct case.
-------------------- "Yo yo just here to spread my clit and show ya'll what a wonderful and free being we are all inside lets take the acid and turn inside into the outside come on over baby lets smell the roses ohh ohh come on we're about to get lit show my undies to your baby I'll hug it down three times go around frown come on we aint a nice clown kiss me upside down down down come on sorry if you cant handle my wokeness come on lets take her panties off write shroomery on my asshole and taste it lick it make if feel like we was 1978 come on baby lets do the locamotion"-Twig dude
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Morgenstern
WHAT!
Registered: 06/07/09
Posts: 6,450
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: DragonChaser]
#21135681 - 01/17/15 09:08 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
DragonChaser said: The problem becomes clearer when you make it bigger. .
^
You draw 1 card of 52 hoping for the ace of spades, not revealing it yet. Your chance was 1 in 52 of selecting it (at the time.) The card holder reveals the rest of the cards, none of which are the ace of spades.
(Which at this point, you now have a chance to pick between yours or the cardholders. It becomes obvious. You now have a 51/52 chance that the one you didn't pick is the ace of spades. It's better to switch your answer.
-------------------- Admins can't read graphs.
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aZombie
Yugen
Registered: 03/14/13
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Morgenstern]
#21135695 - 01/17/15 09:11 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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I bet all the doors are goats.
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lowbrow
Paddy Time!!!!
Registered: 09/12/08
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Morgenstern] 1
#21135777 - 01/17/15 09:27 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Morgenstern said:
^
You draw 1 card of 52 hoping for the ace of spades, not revealing it yet. Your chance was 1 in 52 of selecting it (at the time.) The card holder reveals the rest of the cards, none of which are the ace of spades.
(Which at this point, you now have a chance to pick between yours or the cardholders. It becomes obvious. You now have a 51/52 chance that the one you didn't pick is the ace of spades. It's better to switch your answer.
I don't think this makes any sense.
-------------------- Amanita86 said: Sui is trying to mod right now. Kinda like a newborn calf tryin ta stand fer the first time ain’t it..
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Morgenstern
WHAT!
Registered: 06/07/09
Posts: 6,450
Loc:
Last seen: 7 months, 19 hours
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: lowbrow]
#21135917 - 01/17/15 09:59 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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I don't think you make any sense.
-------------------- Admins can't read graphs.
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Rose
Devil's Advocate
Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 22,518
Loc: Mod not God
Last seen: 1 year, 7 months
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You absolutely want to switch.
Statistics are weird.
-------------------- Fiddlesticks.
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starfire_xes
I Am 'They'
Registered: 10/24/09
Posts: 21,590
Loc: Dallas with all the assho...
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Rose] 6
#21136138 - 01/17/15 10:56 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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No. Once he showed a goat, you have a 50% chance of being on the right door. It doesn't matter if you switch or not and it doesn't matter the chance you started with.
Like flipping a coin, its a random walk. If you flip a coin 5 times and it lands on heads every time, the next coin flip is still a 50% chance that it will land on heads regardless of how many times heads have came up in a row. Its the same principle.
-------------------- [/url][/url] IF THE NEIGHBORS COMPLAIN BECAUSE THE MUSIC'S TOO LOUD, TURN IT UP SO YOU CAN'T HEAR THEM BITCH
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Rose
Devil's Advocate
Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 22,518
Loc: Mod not God
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: starfire_xes]
#21136187 - 01/17/15 11:10 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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The easiest way to explain it, at least that I have heard:
There are one million doors and only one has a car, and the rest have goats. You pick a door.
Then the host says, "You can have what is behind your door, or what is behind door 564,238, one of them has the car."
You would be stupid not to switch. You just went from a one in a million chance, to almost certainty.
With three doors, the odds are not as great, but you would have a 33% chance of being right, and then, a much better chance of being right if you switch. You know the eliminated door was a goat.
It is one of those math things that just seems wrong, but it isn't. It is like our brains are not wired to comprehend this simple statistical situation. Also, we want to hold on to our choice, because we made it first, and what we really fear is discovering that we were right all along and second guessed our instincts. In this case though, all the doors are closed so no wisdom or instinct will help us with that first guess. It is just a random guess. The host does you a favor by letting you doubt yourself and guess again.
-------------------- Fiddlesticks.
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BlunderSoftly
Stranger
Registered: 12/10/13
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Rose]
#21136206 - 01/17/15 11:16 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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This is called the Monty Hall problem, you always change doors. I'm sure someones already posted that though, I didn't read past the first sentence
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psi
TOAST N' JAM
Registered: 09/05/99
Posts: 31,548
Loc: 613
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Rose]
#21136225 - 01/17/15 11:21 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Yeah the natural reaction is to think "well I'd kick myself if it turned out I originally picked the right door". It's possible that you did, but it's twice as likely that you picked the wrong door, and if you did originally pick the wrong door then you are guaranteed the win if you switch.
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jboredone
Money-The root of all evil....
Registered: 01/19/12
Posts: 4,794
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switching the doors isn't going to change shit....you either have the car or the sheeps....
-------------------- Peace Pot Micro-Dot God Loves You High or Not!!! In order to grow old and wise, you must once have been young and dumb!
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Larabar
Crack Addicted Whorsicle
Registered: 11/06/13
Posts: 1,869
Loc: Koryo Kingdom
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: starfire_xes] 1
#21136231 - 01/17/15 11:24 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Chance to choose car out of three doors: 33.33%
Chance to choose car out of two doors: 50%
Chance the first door you chose is the car, after one door is removed: 50%
Really all chances of choosing the right door go up once one door is removed, whether you change or not.
The question is "Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?"
I'd have to say no, since you would still have the 50% chance of choosing the car, whether you decide to change doors or not.
Even though the odds go up for the door that you did not choose, they also go up for the door that you did choose.
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BlunderSoftly
Stranger
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What gets people about this problem is the fact that the wrong option shown to you is one you did not pick.
So the chances that you are still wrong stays at 2/3, the chance that the remaining door is right is 1/2
This remains true for any number of doors, but the difference between the odds on your door and the odds of the other doors is less in the favor of switching
Edited by BlunderSoftly (01/17/15 11:31 PM)
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BlunderSoftly
Stranger
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Larabar]
#21136238 - 01/17/15 11:26 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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No you always switch the doors, look at my earlier post. Your original gander is still tied to the original probability and once a goat is revealed the probability changes, wikipedia Monty Hall problem for a good layout they even have a little excel like chart.
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DieCommie
Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: sincerelylexo] 1
#21136244 - 01/17/15 11:28 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Are people trying to argue you shouldn't switch?
The Pub... Some things about you will never change...
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BlunderSoftly
Stranger
Registered: 12/10/13
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Last seen: 2 years, 2 months
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You guys know that 0.999999999 repeated infinitely is equal to one? Divide 1 by 3 and it gives 0.3333333 to the infinity, then multiply that by 3.
Numbers don't quantize like matter does homies, think about it.
That is why the ultraviolet catastrophe happened I think and statistical thermodynamics get replaced with quantum dynamics.
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Larabar
Crack Addicted Whorsicle
Registered: 11/06/13
Posts: 1,869
Loc: Koryo Kingdom
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: BlunderSoftly] 1
#21136256 - 01/17/15 11:32 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
BlunderSoftly said: No you always switch the doors, look at my earlier post. Your original gander is still tied to the original probability and once a goat is revealed the probability changes, wikipedia Monty Hall problem for a good layout they even have a little excel like chart.
yes you're first choice is still tied to the original probability, but your new choice, whether it be to stay or not, would be tied to the new probability.
Edited by Larabar (01/17/15 11:34 PM)
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psi
TOAST N' JAM
Registered: 09/05/99
Posts: 31,548
Loc: 613
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Larabar]
#21136268 - 01/17/15 11:38 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Not switching benefits you only in the unlikely scenario where you originally picked the one correct door, and switching benefits you in the much more likely scenario that you originally picked one of the two wrong doors.
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BlunderSoftly
Stranger
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: Larabar]
#21136282 - 01/17/15 11:46 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Larabar said:
Quote:
BlunderSoftly said: No you always switch the doors, look at my earlier post. Your original gander is still tied to the original probability and once a goat is revealed the probability changes, wikipedia Monty Hall problem for a good layout they even have a little excel like chart.
yes you're first choice is still tied to the original probability, but your new choice, whether it be to stay or not, would be tied to the new probability.
Exactly, and your first choice had a two thirds chance of being wrong, if you don't change the door then you don't change that probability; everything is as it was before the goat was revealed. That last door has 1/2 chance of being wrong and 1/2 chance of being right.
Expanded to 4 doors and your door has a 1/4 chance of being right, the remaining 2 doors have a 1/3 chance of being right. Pick another door.
All of this is similar to why you cannot know momentum and position of particle at the same time. Because the particle is actually existing as a probability across a standing wave
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Larabar
Crack Addicted Whorsicle
Registered: 11/06/13
Posts: 1,869
Loc: Koryo Kingdom
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Re: Let's see how smart the pub is [Re: psi]
#21136286 - 01/17/15 11:49 PM (9 years, 2 months ago) |
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i do see why "the answer" is yes, but i seriously disagree. Or at least say that it is a question that can be answered both ways.
once one door is removed, one could argue that the first probability becomes irrelevant.
There are still two doors left:
chance first choice was correct: 50%
chance other door is correct: 50%
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