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InvisibleXlea321
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Registered: 02/26/01
Posts: 9,134
CIA report: We could lose this situation
    #2099692 - 11/13/03 02:02 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

'We could lose this situation'

? CIA says insurgents now 50,000 strong
? Crisis talks over transfer of power

Julian Borger in Washington and Rory McCarthy in Baghdad
Thursday November 13, 2003
The Guardian

The White House yesterday drew up emergency plans to accelerate the transfer of power in Iraq after being shown a devastating CIA report warning that the guerrilla war was in danger of escalating out of US control.
The report, an "appraisal of situation" commissioned by the CIA director, George Tenet, and written by the CIA station chief in Baghdad, said that the insurgency was gaining ground among the population, and already numbers in the tens of thousands.

One military intelligence assessment now estimates the insurgents' strength at 50,000. Analysts cautioned that such a figure was speculative, but it does indicate a deep-rooted revolt on a far greater scale than the Pentagon had led the administration to believe.

An intelligence source in Washington familiar with the CIA report described it as a "bleak assessment that the resistance is broad, strong and getting stronger".

"It says we are going to lose the situation unless there is a rapid and dramatic change of course," the source said.

"There are thousands in the resistance - not just a core of Ba'athists. They are in the thousands, and growing every day. Not all those people are actually firing, but providing support, shelter and all that."

Although, the report was an internal CIA document it was widely circulated within the administration. Even more unusually, it carried an endorsement by Paul Bremer, the civilian head of the US-run occupation of Iraq - a possible sign that he was seeking to bypass his superiors in the Pentagon and send a message directly to President George Bush on how bad the situation has become.

Proof of the strength of the insurgents and their ability to strike anywhere in Iraq was provided in another devastating suicide bombing yesterday.

This time the target was the Italian military police barracks in the south-eastern city of Nasariya.

At least 17 Italians and eight Iraqis were killed, striking a blow at one of the few nations prepared to send troops to help the US and Britain contain the rising violence.

Following crisis talks in Washington yesterday, Mr Bremer flew back to Baghdad armed with proposals to bolster the US-backed Iraqi governing council with more powers and more resources in an attempt to speed up elections.

Under one of the proposals, the council could be expanded or transformed into a full provisional government backed by an interim constitution.

That would represent a radical reversal of earlier US policy which was to put off the transfer of real power to an Iraqi government until after elections, which in turn would have to await a comprehensive new constitution.

The new blueprint, which reverses that methodological progression and which is closer to what was done in post-war Afghanistan, emerged from an urgently arranged series of meetings between the president, his top national security advisers, and Mr Bremer, as the security situation in Iraq continued to deteriorate rapidly.

In scenes last night reminiscent of the height of the war, US forces went back on the offensive with air strikes and armoured assaults on a suspected guerrilla stronghold near Baghdad. Guerrilla attacks, meanwhile, have become more frequent, bolder and bloodier.

In public at least, the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has insisted that the attacks are the work of a few remnants of Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist party and a handful of Islamic jihadists from other Arab countries.

It is understood that Mr Bremer's administration is concerned about the impact of the decision by US forces to escalate their offensive against the insurgents, anxious that bombing and heavy-handed raids will increase popular support for the insurgency.

Mr Bremer refused to provide details of the new US plan, but US and British officials said he was carrying proposals from Mr Bush aimed at bolstering the interim Iraqi leadership in the hope of winning the confidence of Iraqis and paving the way for elections pencilled in for the end of next year. But, according to some US officials, elections could be held in four to six months.

The UN security council has given the Iraqi governing council until December 15 to come up with a constitutional blueprint and organising elections.

The council, deeply divided by internal disputes, has shown little sign of meeting that deadline, but the new US proposals would put it under pressure to accelerate its work and the transfer of power.

One of the options discussed in the White House yesterday was replacing the governing council with a new body.

The council was hand-picked by Washington after the war, largely from returning exiles, but it has since disappointed US officials by its slow progress. Many of its 24 members fail to turn up to its meetings, and the CIA report said the council had little support among the Iraqi population.

However, the secretary of state, Colin Powell insisted: "We are committed to the governing council and are prepared to help them in any way we can."

"We're looking at all sorts of ideas, and we do want to accelerate the work of reform," Mr Powell said.

"We want to accelerate the work of putting a legal basis under the new Iraqi government and we are doing everything we can to get the governing council equipped with everything they need."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1083847,00.html


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Xlea321]
    #2100922 - 11/13/03 10:57 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

And we walked right into Saddam's trap too....

Our hands are now tied. If we simply just walk out of Iraq now, it might well send the message to extremists that the west cannot carry through on its military threats against oil embargoes and price gouging. If we dont, the war will eventually escalate to a point where it is no longer possible to conceal our true intentions (which is to forcibly replace OPEC as the global oil monopoly). Once those intentions are revealed, other countries will be forced to defend themselves against US oil agression; and that is when it will be out of US control.

Apparently the ancient Mayans were very close with that end date...my guess is a few years before then.



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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


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Anonymous

Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Xlea321]
    #2101010 - 11/13/03 11:35 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

hopefully this will speed things up a bit.


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2101026 - 11/13/03 11:41 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

we asked for it and now were getting it good.


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PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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InvisiblePsiloKitten
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Registered: 02/13/99
Posts: 1,617
Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Annapurna1]
    #2101853 - 11/13/03 03:15 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

La la la.. I give it 3.5 years, but there are slim odds the danger could be averted.

Make love not war.  :mushroom2:



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InvisibleXlea321
Stranger
Registered: 02/26/01
Posts: 9,134
Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2101920 - 11/13/03 03:38 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

hopefully this will speed things up a bit.

Your optimism is touching mush.

Just wonder what those 50,000 insurgents will do to the puppet "Iraq Governing Council" when the US pulls out tho. Karzai's authority in Afghanistan extends about as far as his front door. Without the americans backing him up he's toast.


--------------------
Don't worry, B. Caapi


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Anonymous

Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Xlea321]
    #2102086 - 11/13/03 04:19 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

how do you think the situation can best be resolved?


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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2102460 - 11/13/03 06:23 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

There is no way to resolve it. Simple as that.


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Anonymous

Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #2102506 - 11/13/03 06:37 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

it's hard to know exactly what the resistance wants.

if they just want the US to expedite its departure, that's one thing.

are they going to respect a constitutional government? are they lead mostly by remnants of the ba'ath party who want to restore the old regime? do they just want the US out?

their motives are important.


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OfflineMixomatosis
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Registered: 10/28/03
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Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2109466 - 11/15/03 05:59 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

neat-o


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InvisibleXlea321
Stranger
Registered: 02/26/01
Posts: 9,134
Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2110694 - 11/16/03 03:45 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

are they going to respect a constitutional government?

In a word, no.

Would you accept a US government handpicked by Saddam?



--------------------
Don't worry, B. Caapi


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Invisiblekaiowas
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Registered: 07/14/03
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Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Xlea321]
    #2111063 - 11/16/03 09:47 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

don't you jsut love the things you don't hear or read on the TV or in the newspaper?


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Annnnnnd I had a light saber and my friend was there and I said "you look like an indian" and he said "you look like satan" and he found a stick and a rock and he named the rock ooga booga and he named the stick Stick and we both thought that was pretty funny. We got eaten alive by mosquitos but didn't notice til the next day. I stepped on some glass while wading in the swamp and cut my foot open, didn't bother me til the next day either....yeah it was a good time, ended the night by buying some liquor for minors and drinking nips and going to he diner and eating chicken fingers, and then I went home and went to bed.---senior doobie


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Anonymous

Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Xlea321]
    #2111308 - 11/16/03 01:24 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

how do you think the situation can be best resolved?


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InvisibleXlea321
Stranger
Registered: 02/26/01
Posts: 9,134
Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2114007 - 11/17/03 02:22 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

Little difficult to know now mush. Once you start wars of aggression in places like Iraq and Afghanistan you're usually a little beyond "resolutions". My guess is there'll be a guerilla war in Iraq for a good decade, followed by a civil war and the emergence of another western backed tyrant like Saddam who will do as he's told.

It's like Ted Bundy coming to me and saying "How do I best resolve this" after slaughtering 30 women. I'd have to say "Sorry Ted, if you'd come to me BEFORE killing we might've been able to work something out".


--------------------
Don't worry, B. Caapi


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Anonymous

Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Xlea321]
    #2115302 - 11/17/03 08:09 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

surely you must think that some course of action on the part of the united states right now would be the most beneficial and appropriate. what do you think the united states should do at this point that would be most beneficial to the people of iraq?


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2115639 - 11/17/03 11:05 AM (13 years, 3 months ago)

What would be most beneficial for the ppl of Iraq right now would be for King George and Haliburton to run away in the most cowardly fashion possible. But this is not an option for the junta for the reasons i gave above, not to mention the fact that the junta doesnt give a ~damn~ about Americans, let alone Iraqis.


--------------------


"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


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Anonymous

Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Annapurna1]
    #2115889 - 11/17/03 12:33 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

so what do you think they should do?


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InvisibleXlea321
Stranger
Registered: 02/26/01
Posts: 9,134
Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2115901 - 11/17/03 12:35 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

what do you think the united states should do at this point that would be most beneficial to the people of iraq?

Stop the privatisation program.


--------------------
Don't worry, B. Caapi


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Anonymous

Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: Xlea321]
    #2115922 - 11/17/03 12:39 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

what do you mean?


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Registered: 05/21/02
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Re: CIA report: We could lose this situation [Re: ]
    #2115938 - 11/17/03 12:43 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

mushmaster said:
so what do you think they should do?




If it was up to me i would leave immediately and get ready for a massive oil embargo.


--------------------


"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


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