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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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First Solar (FSLR)
    #20986791 - 12/16/14 08:59 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

The crashing oil prices have really dragged down the entire energy sector, including Solar. First Solar closed at $40.90 today, down from it's 52 week high of $74.

They are currently producing the most cost effective solar panels on the planet using CdTe instead of silicon. It is a waste product from Iron ore purification so there's not much environmental footprint.

They recently finished a massive solar power plant in southern CA, and have partnered with a CO based clean energy collective to get into the consumer market.

I think Solar energy is a good investment financially and morally. I think First solar will lead their industry. And I think now is a great opportunity to buy in for cheap. I just picked up 25 shares for $41.49 If oil continues to push this stock lower I'm going to buy more. Actually I'll probably buy more regardless.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FSLR

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Offlinestanski
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #20986878 - 12/16/14 09:24 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Seems like they have a great P/E ratio, great earnings potential, low debt, and good management.

The question I always have with companies like this is how fast can they transition to a different market if new technology and new regulations come about? Both are huge unknown factors.

I invested a bit though and thank you for the tip, I agree that it is a good moral investment and I think they are very undervalued right now and a good buy for the long term.

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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: stanski]
    #20987122 - 12/16/14 10:23 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

stanski said:
The question I always have with companies like this is how fast can they transition to a different market if new technology and new regulations come about? Both are huge unknown factors.





You make a good point about new developments in technologies. One reason I choose First Solar over their competitors (particularly Canadian Solar Inc. CSIQ) is that they are investing a lot more into Research and Development.

If you don't want to risk picking the wrong horse but still want to invest in solar you could buy shares of the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)

As far as new regulations, Obama is going forward with his plan to have the EPA tighten restrictions on power plant emissions. I am speculating that this will cause some communities to look for alternatives to their coal power plants, and some of them might find solar to be an attractive option. Even if it doesn't result in any new contracts, just the speculation that it might should be enough to raise stock prices for the whole industry. And that's just domestic. There is a major environmental conference in Paris this spring. If the world powers can agree on some accord to reduce CO2 emissions that should translate into a windfall for the solar industry.

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Offlinestanski
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #20988989 - 12/17/14 11:40 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

I think you have the best in the bunch so I think its a better investment than the index, even if there is the risk of new technology. The others have very high p/e and higher levels of debt. Its also trading at a price to book of .9!!! right now, and has some of the highest profit margins in the industry. Its return on assets and return on investments is a bit lacking, but this still seems to be a very undervalued stock right now with tremendous potential for growth.

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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: stanski]
    #20994563 - 12/18/14 02:52 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Up 6.75% today :cheers:

The US is raising tariffs on Chinese solar panels!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/business/energy-environment/-us-imposes-steep-tariffs-on-chinese-solar-panels.html

First Solar manufactures in many countries around the world, but unlike most of their competition none of their factories are in China.

I almost invested in CSIQ because their P/E ratio is absurd. But they're smaller cap, and had more debt so I decided to pass. They do all of their manufacturing in China. They're down 2.36% today despite the general upwards trend in the market.

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InvisibleMojo
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #20996548 - 12/18/14 09:32 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Hopefully it keeps going up for you.

My only concern with this company is the fact that the CEO liquidated 99% of his shares and has not bought back in yet...  That's not exactly a vote of confidence from the man running the company.

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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Mojo]
    #21001184 - 12/19/14 10:57 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

The current CEO? All I could find was this article about the ex-CEO selling out.

http://archive.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/08/12/20110812first-solar-ex-ceo-sells-shares.html

Regardless of who the CEO is I think the Waltons control this company.

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InvisibleMojo
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21002235 - 12/20/14 08:20 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

My source shows Hughes James Alton as the current CEO, he liquidated 16000 shares in May and currently retains ~550 shares.  I'm not saying this for sure a terrible thing. CEOs sell stock for many reasons but when it's the majority of your stock like this I can't help but wonder what he knows that we don't.  This also brings me to the timing for taking a position on this stock. It's been loosing value since September, what gives you confidence that this is where it will bottom out?

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Mojo]
    #21002295 - 12/20/14 08:54 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

As far as I can tell, making electricity from solar panels sounds nice, but isn't very economically viable as an investment.  Without tax breaks and a real excess of power to sell back to the power company, it just fails.  With oil at 1/2 what it was this summer, it totally fails.

There is also the issue of SRM (Solar Radiation Management).  Even though most don't believe it is happening in spite of massive evidence to the contrary, the spraying of aerosols has in fact caused less sun to hit the earth recently.  Something like 12% less.  More spraying will cause even less sun to hit the earth.  This makes solar panels even less efficient, and economically viable.


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Anxiety is what you make it.

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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21004944 - 12/20/14 08:14 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Mojo said:
My source shows Hughes James Alton as the current CEO, he liquidated 16000 shares in May and currently retains ~550 shares.  I'm not saying this for sure a terrible thing. CEOs sell stock for many reasons but when it's the majority of your stock like this I can't help but wonder what he knows that we don't. 



Well, that is quite worrisome..

Quote:

This also brings me to the timing for taking a position on this stock. It's been loosing value since September, what gives you confidence that this is where it will bottom out?



I think that decrease in value is directly linked to the decline in oil prices. I think we are at least near if not at the bottom of oil, so that makes me think we are also at or near the bottom of first solar. Also, I think that sustainable energy is going to be in the news a lot this spring because Obama is going forward with new regulations for power plants. First Solar is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the American solar market, the fastest growing solar market in the world. Also there is a global summit on climate change coming up in Paris. If the world's super powers come to some kind of agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions solar companies stand to benefit greatly.



Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
As far as I can tell, making electricity from solar panels sounds nice, but isn't very economically viable as an investment.  Without tax breaks and a real excess of power to sell back to the power company, it just fails.



First Solar isn't focused on selling solar panel to individuals. They build massive solar power plants that are commissioned by state governments and utility companies.

I don't believe that there is any energy source that is not subsidized by governments.

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21006408 - 12/21/14 06:11 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

So, with oil 1/2 what it used to be, please explain why a government would spend all that taxpayer money on a project that loses money?

I know, it's called pork.  Buy Jimmy Dean instead if you want to invest in pork.

First Solar, why???  And China company, to boot. 

Lots of other fish in the investment seas, and trying to pick a bottom on a dog driven by fake economics is a mistake.


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21007880 - 12/21/14 02:38 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
So, with oil 1/2 what it used to be, please explain why a government would spend all that taxpayer money on a project that loses money?




Sustainability. Some people are thinking long term. It's smart economics. Oil won't be this cheap forever.

Quote:

And China company, to boot.




huh?

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21011073 - 12/22/14 06:14 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Dr. P. Silocybin said:
Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
So, with oil 1/2 what it used to be, please explain why a government would spend all that taxpayer money on a project that loses money?




Sustainability. Some people are thinking long term. It's smart economics. Oil won't be this cheap forever.

Quote:

And China company, to boot.




huh?




I get nervous any time I hear the word "sustainability".  You are reaching, and some means not as many as you would want for your stock.

China is a disaster in the making, a huge debt and real estate bubble that when it bursts, it will impact everyone.  Maybe 2 years out. 

I also notice First Solar cancelled plans for a big plant in China after four years of working on it. 

Don't chase your dog with fleas stock that you are married to, is my best advice.  Woof.


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21017048 - 12/23/14 01:07 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
I get nervous any time I hear the word "sustainability".  You are reaching, and some means not as many as you would want for your stock.

China is a disaster in the making, a huge debt and real estate bubble that when it bursts, it will impact everyone.  Maybe 2 years out. 

I also notice First Solar cancelled plans for a big plant in China after four years of working on it. 

Don't chase your dog with fleas stock that you are married to, is my best advice.  Woof.



I'm only in for $1000, far from married.

Bold prediction about China. If that comes to fruition it won't matter what stocks I've picked the global economy will tank. In the mean time I maintain my optimism for the future of sustainable energy.

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21020192 - 12/24/14 06:12 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

I took a look at the chart, and must say that is one of the uglier charts I've seen in a while.  Hadn't realized it hit $12 a couple of years ago.

While not married, you have given this dog with fleas an engagement ring and still speak highly of the bitch.


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21021563 - 12/24/14 01:35 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Every solar company hit a rough patch in 2012. If it drops down that low again I'll be buying more.

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21022437 - 12/24/14 06:34 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Dr. P. Silocybin said:
Every solar company hit a rough patch in 2012. If it drops down that low again I'll be buying more.




Till death do us part.  Ouch.


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21022713 - 12/24/14 08:27 PM (9 years, 4 months ago)

I just try to buy low and sell high

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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21023823 - 12/25/14 05:54 AM (9 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Dr. P. Silocybin said:
I just try to buy low and sell high




Try buying a stock in an uptrend next time then.  It works a lot better than chasing FSLR back to 12...


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Offlinestanski
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Re: First Solar (FSLR) [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21322254 - 02/24/15 11:11 AM (9 years, 2 months ago)

First solar is shooting through the roof, what do people think about the pooled asset spinoff? And the deal with Apple to provide them with solar energy?

Edited by stanski (02/24/15 11:20 AM)

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