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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,214
Loc: Lost In Space
Kyoto debunked.
    #2073792 - 11/05/03 05:35 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

I found these articles and the study to be interesting. Maybe others will as well. I'll just paste the one and provide links to the others.







Kyoto debunked
A pillar of the Kyoto Accord is based on flawed calculations, incorrect data and an overtly biased selection of climate records, an important new paper reveals

Tim Patterson
Financial Post


Wednesday, October 29, 2003
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This has been a nightmare of a year for aficionados of the Kyoto Accord. After Canada's ratification of the treaty in late 2002, environmentalists had every reason to believe that few climate experts would dare continue to publicly oppose Kyoto's science, Russia would quickly ratify the accord and it soon would become international law.

Instead, as illustrated at this month's World Climate Change Conference in Moscow, exactly the opposite has happened. The growing number of scientists who dispute the treaty's scientific foundation have become increasingly vocal, regularly pushing their case in the media as groundbreaking studies continue to be published that pull the rug out from under Kyoto's shaky edifice.

Of these, none may have the long-term impact of the paper published yesterday in the prestigious British journal Energy and Environment, which explains how one of the fundamental scientific pillars of the Kyoto Accord is based on flawed calculations, incorrect data and a biased selection of climate records.

The paper's authors, Toronto-based analyst Steve McIntyre and University of Guelph economics professor Ross McKitrick, obtained the original data used by Michael Mann of the University of Virginia to support the notion that the 20th-century temperature rise was unprecedented in the past millennium. A detailed audit revealed numerous errors in the data. After correcting these and updating the source records they showed that based on Mann's own methodologies, his original conclusion was flawed. Mann's original version resulted in the famous "hockey stick" graph that purported to show 900 years of relative temperature stability (the shaft of the hockey stick) followed by a sharp increase (the blade) in the 20th century (see graph). The corrected version of the last thousand years actually contradicts the view promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and removes the foundation for claims of 20th-century uniqueness.

To understand the significance of the McIntyre/McKitrick announcement, it is important to consider how our understanding of long-term climate history has evolved over the past decade. In its 1990 and 1995 "Assessment Reports", the IPCC clearly identified two major global climatic events in the past millennium, as confirmed by thousands of papers written by quaternary geologists during the past century -- a "Medieval Warm Period" (MWP) from about 800 to 1300 A.D. that was as much as two degrees Celsius warmer than today, and a far colder "Little Ice Age" (LIA) from about 1300 to 1900 A.D. The effects of these events were felt worldwide with convincing evidence of both the MWP and LIA found in Europe, North America, Africa, the Caribbean, Peru and even in China, Japan and Australia. As part of our emergence from the LIA, scientists agreed there had been a gradual warming throughout the 20th century, although the reasons for this were hotly contested with increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) and changes in the output of the sun being leading contenders.

In recent years, however, the case for solar variations being the 20th century's major climate driver has become much stronger, much to the consternation of Kyoto supporters. After all, if long before human-induced GHG emission became significant, temperatures were considerably higher than today, there would be little reason to think today's temperatures were anything unnatural. This was especially true since long-term solar records indicated that both the MWP and LIA were closely correlated with changes in solar activity, and the output of the sun has indeed been increasing during the past century's 0.6C warming. Supporters of the GHG-induced warming hypothesis desperately needed a "smoking gun" to prop up the need for Kyoto.

This was conveniently supplied by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in their 1998 paper (referred to as "MBH98") in which they reduced the MWP and LIA to non-events outside Europe and unveiled their "hockey stick." The paper concluded, "Our results suggest that the latter 20th century is anomalous in the context of at least the past millennium. The 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, at moderately high levels of confidence."

Of course, Kyoto fans were delighted. Despite being at odds with most of the scientific literature, and the fact that the MBH98 study was only one of thousands of possible millennial temperature constructions, advocates of the GHG hypothesis of climate change started to promote Mann's results as the definitive global temperature history. Within a year, with little real debate, the hockey stick became entrenched as the new orthodoxy, showing up in official documents everywhere.

However, the scientific review process that all studies must undergo before publication had failed in the case of the MBH98 paper. The temperature data before 1900 were not directly measured, as they were after 1900 when land-based thermometer readings were used. Instead, pre-1900 temperatures were calculated based on the measurement of "proxies," natural phenomena such as the growth of tree rings or coral that indicate what temperature was at certain times in the past. Consequently, grafting the two very different types of data sets together without significant overlap to come to dramatic conclusions was unwarranted and should have been seriously contested by the paper's reviewers. Chris de Freitas of the School of Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, sums up, "The Mann 'hockey stick' is nothing more than a mathematical construct vigorously promoted in the IPCC's 2001 report to affirm the notion that temperature changes of the 20th century were unprecedented."

Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard Institute of Astrophysics added to the critique of Mann's hockey stick in March of this year when they showed that a careful analysis of 240 proxy studies reaffirmed that the MWP and the LIA were indeed worldwide phenomena, not limited to the European and North American continents. Baliunas and Soon's results coupled with this week's McIntyre/McKitrick paper may now end the debate for good. By looking carefully at the MBH98 data and their computational methods, McIntyre and McKitrick uncovered such serious flaws that the temperature indexes computed from it are, to quote McIntyre and McKitrick, "unreliable and cannot be used for comparisons between the current climate and that of previous centuries." Mann's claims that "temperatures in the latter half of the 20th century were unprecedented," and the IPCC's and Environment Canada's confident assertions that the 1990s was "likely the warmest decade" and 1998 the "warmest year" of the millennium, are wholly unsubstantiated.

Among the many mistakes in Mann's paper, some appear blatant, some simply careless apparently due to clerical errors (for example, allocating measurements to the wrong years, "filling" tables with identical numbers for different proxies in different years, etc.). In many cases, obsolete source data was used that have since been revised by the originating researchers. As an example of their numerous "truncation errors," Mann's Central England Temperature series stops without explanation at 1730, even though data are available back to 1659, thus hiding a major 17th century cold period. Similarly, Central Europe data are truncated at 1550, rather than 25 years earlier, for which the data are available, the effect being to remove the warmest data in the series. Of course, no one with an understanding of climate history really believes there was a dramatic temperature spike in the middle of the Little Ice Age. Yet Mann's data and methodology actually supports such a notion, completely contradicting his contention that there was merely a gradually cooling between 1000 AD and 1900.

Correcting and updating the proxy database used by Mann and his co-authors and then repeating Mann's methodology, McIntyre and McKitrick showed that the MBH98 study in fact reveals that the late 20th century Northern Hemisphere temperature trend is unexceptional compared to the preceding centuries. In doing so, they demonstrate the sort of in-depth analysis the IPCC should have conducted on its own. Instead, its so called "rigorous review process" failed miserably, giving highly flawed work central prominence in the 2001 IPCC Report. As a consequence, governments worldwide are now making some of their most expensive policy decisions ever based on uncritical acceptance of an IPCC Report that we now know to be decidedly unsound in itself.

Dr. Tim Patterson is a professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Carleton University.

Kyoto Debunked


More


The study


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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InvisiblePsiloKitten
Ganja Goddess

Registered: 02/13/99
Posts: 1,617
Re: Kyoto debunking is bunk [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #2073804 - 11/05/03 05:39 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

Record loss of ozone over Antarctica this year
Recent analysis of satellite-based measurements by scientists from the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) shows that record amounts of ozone were destroyed over Antarctica in September this year.

On each day over the period 23 to 26 September the amount of ozone lost over Antarctica exceeded the previous daily record of 45.5 million tons recorded in 2000. On 25 September this year a record loss of 47.3 million tons was reached.

?This is a significant amount of ozone,? said NIWA scientist Greg Bodeker. ?It?s equivalent to about 8 kg of ozone for every person on Earth. The amount lost this year (47 million tons) is the amount that would be required to restore Antarctic ozone levels to the minimum levels that were measured before the onset of the Antarctic ozone hole in the early 1980s.?

The calculations are based on measurements made by satellite-based instruments operated by NASA and the European Space Agency. NIWA scientists have compared these measurements with measurements from ground-based instruments, including those operated by NIWA at Scott Base in Antarctica, and at NIWA?s atmospheric research laboratory at Lauder in Central Otago, and combined them to create a single, global, long-term database of ozone.

?This technique combines the global coverage of satellite-based instruments with the long-term stability and accuracy of ground-based measurements,? said Dr Bodeker. ?We are one of a few organisations in the world to create such combined databases of ozone measurements.?

Dr Bodeker said this ozone depleted air would spread out over the southern hemisphere, including New Zealand, at the end of November?early December when the ozone hole breaks up, and would lead to high UV levels during summer.

?We expect the ozone hole to recover over the coming decades following international restrictions of CFC (chlorofluorocarbons) emissions, but the record ozone depletion measured this year shows that we haven?t reached the turning point yet.?


http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/SC0311/S00016.htm

Here is an article about the previous study:
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20000908largest_ozone_hole.html



--------------------


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,214
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Kyoto debunked. [Re: PsiloKitten]
    #2073812 - 11/05/03 05:43 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

As the ozone hole is supposedly caused by chlorofluorocarbons, and Kyoto is about carbon dioxide, your rebuttal falls flat.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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InvisiblePsiloKitten
Ganja Goddess

Registered: 02/13/99
Posts: 1,617
Re: Kyoto debunked. [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #2073955 - 11/05/03 06:33 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

Perhaps you should read the Kyoto Protocol paying attention to things like Article 2 aii, aiv, etc etc. This is in support and excess of the Montreal Protocol.

Do you know what green house gasses are? Here is a little tip for you:

"Many gases exhibit such ?greenhouse? properties, including those that occur naturally in the atmosphere, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and those that are man-made, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)."


Way to simplify something that you dont appear to know alot about.

Have a nice day.


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Offlined33p
Welcome to Violence

Registered: 07/12/03
Posts: 5,381
Loc: the shores of Tripoli
Last seen: 4 years, 4 months
Re: Kyoto debunking is bunk [Re: PsiloKitten]
    #2073971 - 11/05/03 06:37 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

When a single volcano errupts it emmits more chlorine into the air than if every device containing cfcs were to vented into the air.

Dupont had the patent for cfc's but funny how right after it expired the gov't said that cfcs were dangerous to the environment. But lucky for us Dupont also had a patent for hcfc's which is not as effective as cfc's and also is hazardous to humans.

Good thing the gov't is out there keeping us safe from the corporations. :smile:


--------------------
I'm a nihilist. Lets be friends.

bang bang


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Offlined33p
Welcome to Violence

Registered: 07/12/03
Posts: 5,381
Loc: the shores of Tripoli
Last seen: 4 years, 4 months
Re: Kyoto debunking is bunk [Re: PsiloKitten]
    #2073972 - 11/05/03 06:37 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

shit first double post ever

But by the way read some of Bear's essays, they are intresting.


--------------------
I'm a nihilist. Lets be friends.

bang bang


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InvisiblePsiloKitten
Ganja Goddess

Registered: 02/13/99
Posts: 1,617
Re: Kyoto debunking is bunk [Re: d33p]
    #2073994 - 11/05/03 06:41 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

Ill have to look into that volcano thing.

:smile:


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?


Registered: 11/29/01
Posts: 34,214
Loc: Lost In Space
Re: Kyoto debunked. [Re: PsiloKitten]
    #2074047 - 11/05/03 06:56 PM (13 years, 10 months ago)

I have read it. The thrust of the treaty is on carbon dioxide. You're correct in that all the way at the end they finally list the gasses you mention.

It still appears the study mentioned in the article is flawed. More than flawed actually. Poorly done with data omitted in a way which strikes me as deliberate.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


Post Extras: Print Post  Remind Me! Notify Moderator
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