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OfflineGorlax
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Registered: 05/06/08
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Silver in 2014
    #19384899 - 01/07/14 08:29 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Anyone have any speculation on Silver for 2014. I have been reading that is overdue for a market shift sometime soon. I'm pretty sketched to invest without a little more research. If you keep up with precious metals all the rest Gold, palladium, platinum have already reached some pretty high prices while silver declined. The recent article I have read claim that silver should rebound soon it averagely rebound every 4.2 years and its on 4.7 now.

Quote:

Silver and gold prices have been forced lower in the paper markets while the S&P has been levitated with zero-interest rates, HFT and QE. The financial powers-that-be, the political and financial elite, Wall Street, China, India, Russia, and the U.S. Treasury have all benefitted from the suppression of gold and silver prices. Most have also benefitted from QE and the S&P levitation. The surprise is not that gold and silver prices have been pushed lower after their 2011 blow-off rallies, but that the "smack down" has lasted so long in the face of such strong physical demand.

Regardless, regression to the mean is relevant, even in manipulated markets. Expect a trend change in 2014 and much higher gold and silver prices as they rally above their 200 day moving averages.

The ratio of silver prices to the S&P is back to 2008 levels and substantially below the linear trend since 2006. Expect the ratio to regress (rise) to its mean while silver prices rally substantially from here.

Both long and short term time cycles indicate that an important bottom occurred in June of 2013. It appears that a double-bottom occurred in December of 2013. If this double-bottom holds, time cycles suggest that silver will rally strongly in 2014.




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InvisibleSmushroom
Avid Learner

Registered: 02/02/05
Posts: 2,806
Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Gorlax]
    #19385016 - 01/07/14 08:51 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

While I am not really educated enough on the subject to speculate on whether silver prices will go up I would like to point something out.

In the past most precious metals had little use other then for jewelry and ornamental value. IMO this meant the price was based purely on the perceived value of the metal and had little to do with the practical value.

Gold started to have both practical and perceived value in the late 80s/90s because of its conductive properties. Platinum and palladium had a few practical uses but a lot of their value was purely perceived value.

The use of gold in sophisticated electronics increased into the 2000s which I think is part of the reason (as well as increase in perceived value) that is has shot up so much in the past decade. They are finding more and more uses for platinum and palladium in electronics as well as for catalysts in various chemical reactions that may start to become more commercialized. Platinum prices have reflected this but not so much palladium after it crashed in 01.

IMO silver's price is too dependent on perceived value and I don't think it will go up much. The other precious metals are gaining more and more practical uses and IMO are bound to go up more.

I would take a closer look at palladium since it is the only one to not spike recently.

You may also want to look into rare earth metal prices. Right now China controls almost all of the rare earth mines on earth and has been hoarding it. The US is working on the worlds largest rare earth mine in California that could make the US the #1 producer. Since rare earth metals are essential for high end batteries and also for solar panels their use will continue to grow and prices to skyrocket in the long term. IMO it may be smart to look when the US mine will reach maximum output and short sell rare earths prior to the opening and rebuy after they drop with the new influx of product. Then just hold on for the long haul.


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Gorlax]
    #19385067 - 01/07/14 09:02 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Yes, the others may have more value but silver is not far behind. It's used in millions of processes. I'm really trying to see if the wave will come in 2014. The speculation is promising.

over half of all silver is used to make cars, computers, photovoltaic power systems and… synthetic fibers… an increase in global industrial activity would predictably result in an increase in the industrial demand for silver.

It seems like a toss up.. but everytime I don't go with my instinct I miss the wave!!!!!!

Look into it more deeply and give me your thoughts. The estimates i've seen is it shuld hit 40-45 USD. Which buying at the 20$ price now is a huge profit if one buys bulk.


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InvisibleLana
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Registered: 10/27/99
Posts: 3,109
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Gorlax]
    #19386917 - 01/08/14 08:39 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

I'm not sure what interest you have in the production cost of silver, but gold is closer to its production cost.  Some people hold weight in the idea that the closer a commodity is to its production cost, the better the buying opportunity.

For example, depending on where gold is mined in the world, the cost to mine/refine/etc...in other words, the production cost is between $800 to $1,200 per ounce.

The production cost of silver is, I think, between $5.00 and $8.00    I'm not 100% sure of silvers production cost but if any feels like doing more research, please post. 

Please know that in comparison to gold, silver prices are more volatile.  You'll see bigger gain (and losses) occur faster with silver than you will with gold.  Maybe what I'm trying to ask is, is there a reason you like silver over gold?

You wrote:
"over half of all silver is used to make cars, computers, photovoltaic power systems and… synthetic fibers… an increase in global industrial activity would predictably result in an increase in the industrial demand for silver."

This is true but there is also MUCH more silver on the planet than gold.  Although silver is used a lot more, its cheaper because ther's more of it.  If industrial production slows, the use for silver will decline.  You can see this with copper prices.  Many use the price of copper to gauge "the worlds economy".  If copper prices are low, the world is slow.  If copper prices are high, we build to the sky.

Same goes for other PM's.  I understand that silver is used for tons of industrial projects but keep this in mind.    Central Banks keep gold... not much silver :wink: 

I personally like both.  :smile:
Lana


--------------------
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Edited by Lana (01/08/14 08:45 AM)


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Lana]
    #19390339 - 01/08/14 08:06 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Yeah, the main reason I'm not investing in gold is because I simply don't have the amount to buy reasonable amounts. I also feel like now that the economy is has been steadily recovering that the whole gold thing will take a plunge. I could be totally wrong but the influx of those commercials and such almost seem like those companies are trying to dump their collection to unsuspecting investors.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Gorlax]
    #19390710 - 01/08/14 09:22 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Gorlax said:
Yeah, the main reason I'm not investing in gold is because I simply don't have the amount to buy reasonable amounts.




Mexican "Dos Pesos" can be pretty close or even better rates than 1oz rounds.  I think they are cool.


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InvisibleLana
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Registered: 10/27/99
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Gorlax]
    #19392965 - 01/09/14 10:12 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Gorlax said:
Yeah, the main reason I'm not investing in gold is because I simply don't have the amount to buy reasonable amounts.




Ah.. I use to think the same way.  Remember that a pound of feathers weighs just as much as a pound of bricks.

Or in this case, a gram of gold (1 gram Pamp Suisse Gold Bar .9999 Fine (In Assay) - http://www.apmex.com/product/19041/1-gram-pamp-suisse-gold-bar-9999-fine-in-assay - $51.43

costs about the same amount as 2.3 oz. of silver (1 oz Sunshine Silver Bar .999 Fine (V2)- http://www.apmex.com/product/72282/1-oz-sunshine-silver-bar-999-fine-v2 - $22.30

You can even get 1/2 grams of gold if you wanted.  Point is, you're spending the same about of cash, just for two different items.

I'd say diversify but if you've got silver fever, have at it :smile:

Lana


--------------------
Myco Supply - Distributors of Mycological Products
http://www.MycoSupply.com

The Premiere Source for Mushroom Growing Supplies.
Visit us online or call us toll free


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Lana]
    #19393070 - 01/09/14 10:44 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Remember that a pound of feathers weighs just as much as a pound of bricks.




But an ounce of gold weighs more than an ounce of feathers.  :wink:


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InvisibleCorporal Kielbasa


Registered: 05/29/04
Posts: 17,235
Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Lana]
    #19394646 - 01/09/14 05:04 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Those bars are pretty nifty!  The Fortuna design on the back of the gold is awesome!  The decoder for the silver is pretty fun also.


Edited by Corporal Kielbasa (01/09/14 05:07 PM)


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Corporal Kielbasa]
    #19396922 - 01/10/14 12:54 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Lana said:

The production cost of silver is, I think, between $5.00 and $8.00    I'm not 100% sure of silvers production cost but if any feels like doing more research, please post. 





I wonder how the price continues to be elevated if the cost of mining is 1/3rd spot value. Anyways, I certainly hope to see levels around $8-10 for silver again. That would be a wonderful investment opportunity.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: ManianFH]
    #19397541 - 01/10/14 06:50 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

mick said:
Quote:

Lana said:

The production cost of silver is, I think, between $5.00 and $8.00    I'm not 100% sure of silvers production cost but if any feels like doing more research, please post. 





I wonder how the price continues to be elevated if the cost of mining is 1/3rd spot value. Anyways, I certainly hope to see levels around $8-10 for silver again. That would be a wonderful investment opportunity.




I'm not up on the "cost" of mining silver, but as I recall it is considered a "byproduct" of copper or gold mining?  There is a company SLW that as I also recall can buy silver really cheaply from the producers because of a long term contract to buy the by product.

Hey Mick, weren't you buying Maples in my bottom thread?  You must be a real believer if you pay $20 then want a $10 price...


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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Offlineqman
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Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #19397931 - 01/10/14 09:04 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Over 75% of silver production is a by-product of copper, gold, and zinc/lead mining, so even if silver drops to $12 oz, that silver is coming into market.

The other 25% of silver production comes from primary silver miners, their cash cost of production is over $20 oz in most cases, with all in costs over $40-50oz. At a certain silver price these mines will close, and that will provide support to the market price.

Industrial demand consumes about 2/3's of the silver production, the price of silver is meaningless to industrial buyers as it remains only a small component of total product cost.

The other 1/3 is investment consumption, this is where the price discovery takes place, what are investors willing to pay for a oz of silver?  A lot depends on the price of other commodities.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: qman]
    #19397947 - 01/10/14 09:09 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Thats the thing, its mostly a byproduct so supply is steady, but that especially means that its hard to step UP. You cant just let a base metals mine run on double production to get more silver, itsnot costeffective and simply not feasible, and silver mines tend to bring up COSTLY silver.

Like you said :smile:

Silver is undervalued and its a tiny market so it can suddenly soar upwards, at which point you sell.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #19398792 - 01/10/14 12:28 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Hey Mick, weren't you buying Maples in my bottom thread?  You must be a real believer if you pay $20 then want a $10 price...




I am no expert on silver or the markets. Am looking at this as a long term speculative investment, so a $10 fluctuation to the downside would only inspire more purchasing. I have the money to burn right now and its better spent on silver than on a craps table hehe


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


Edited by ManianFH (01/10/14 12:31 PM)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: ManianFH]
    #19399280 - 01/10/14 01:54 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Silver is a tiny market and it can do sudden crazy things. And big investors try to destabilize timy markets to do just that, so they can profit from it. If you got silver, not paper silver but shiny chiming silver, you can ride along with that and buy and cash in when they do.

Silver is cheap now so its damn good to get in now. Lets not forget, at current prices the average stoner smokes a roll of Maples a month.

Quit for a month and get that roll of Maples and you might one day soon be able to cash in for a week or so for 5x or maybe 10x value.  No need to watch the market too, just post here cause the Shroomery silverbugs will scream bloodly murder when it does happen. Its been said before silver got to $55 and its true now, when silver dips under twenty bucks an ounce but with both hands.

:awegold:


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: ManianFH]
    #19399429 - 01/10/14 02:29 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

mick said:
Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
Hey Mick, weren't you buying Maples in my bottom thread?  You must be a real believer if you pay $20 then want a $10 price...




I am no expert on silver or the markets. Am looking at this as a long term speculative investment, so a $10 fluctuation to the downside would only inspire more purchasing. I have the money to burn right now and its better spent on silver than on a craps table hehe




Craps table lol.  Well yeah, if you are in it for the long haul, you keep buying more if it goes down.  $10 seems a little unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility looking at a long term chart.  I just think they are making a little too much funny money to see $10 again.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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Invisiblenooneman
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: Asante]
    #19399841 - 01/10/14 03:57 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Quit for a month and get that roll of Maples



Okay, now you've got my interest. It would be pretty cool to have a bunch of silver coins if it's that cheap. What's the best place to buy silver coins, and what are the best coins to get?


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: nooneman]
    #19399896 - 01/10/14 04:05 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

nooneman said:
Quote:

Wiccan_Seeker said:
Quit for a month and get that roll of Maples



Okay, now you've got my interest. It would be pretty cool to have a bunch of silver coins if it's that cheap. What's the best place to buy silver coins, and what are the best coins to get?




Maples are good especially the animal ones get the most recently minted ones.  Pandas are awesome for potential appreciation as they limit mintages.  Again, recent years are most cost competitive.  Brittanias are beautiful and worth having. 

apmex.com is a good source.  The mint direct tubes are especially good.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (01/10/14 04:07 PM)


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InvisibleCorporal Kielbasa


Registered: 05/29/04
Posts: 17,235
Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #19400619 - 01/10/14 06:44 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Is the appreciation worth the extra upfront cost? A roll of 25 maples is 785 or 31.40 a coin. 
These bars link are 22.50 a 222 dollar difference.    How long will it take them to make up that initial extra investment?

I'm just trying to understand the coin guys.  I mean coins are awesome.  I get a 300 year old coin has historical value and certain coins would be exceedingly rarer and more valuable.  But a bag full of silver dimes and quarters is only a few over spot right?  Why would I pay and extra 9 an ounce and have to keep them all fine and clean and spend more time selling.

My bad if I sound noobish or oblivious.


Edited by Corporal Kielbasa (01/10/14 08:49 PM)


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Invisiblenooneman
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Loc: Utah
Re: Silver in 2014 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #19401186 - 01/10/14 09:06 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

After extensive thought, this is the one I'm thinking about buying:
http://www.apmex.com/product/72283/1-oz-sunshine-silver-round-999-fine-v2

However, I might go with the APMEX (even though the apmex is uglier IMO) just because if I ever buy a larger denomination, they will match.


Edited by nooneman (01/10/14 09:08 PM)


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