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Offlinestarfire_xes
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19373014 - 01/05/14 01:29 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Well great.  I guess if they can't prove anything harmful from the 'consensus' then we shouldn't spend hundreds of billions of dollars and turn over control of the planets energy resources to the UN should we?


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19373128 - 01/05/14 01:52 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Certainly, we can prove that there are harmful effects.  Not catastrophic effects, but harmful.  The oceans are getting more acidic as a result of carbon emissions, and that does have a harmful effect on plant life. 

You are quite the black and white person, aren't you?  If someone says that global warming is partially caused by human activities, you hear "the end of the world is coming because of global warming".  Even that petition you linked only asked about "catastrophic effects" of global warming...not whether or not it's happening or is caused by humans.  Also, if the EPA calls CO2 a pollutant, you see it as "turn[ing] over control of the planets energy resources to the UN."

The world isn't quite as black and white as you seem to believe it to be.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19373176 - 01/05/14 02:02 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
Phred, do you even read your own sources?  Here is a quote from YOUR LINK:

"93% of actively publishing climate scientists indicated they are convinced that humans have contributed to global warming. Our findings also revealed that majorities of experts view human activity as the primary cause of recent climate change: 78% of climate experts actively publishing on climate change, 73% of all people actively publishing on climate change, and 62% of active publishers who mostly do not publish on climate change. These results, together with those of other similar studies, suggest high levels of expert consensus about human-caused climate change (Farnsworth & Lichter 2012, Bray 2010)." (emphasis mine)



Oh, boy. You really have swallowed the Koolaid, haven't you? One by one...

-- "publishing climate scientists" ≠ "scientists"
-- "have contributed to" ≠ "are the major cause of"
-- "human activity" ≠ "humans burning stuff"
-- 93% ≠ 97%
-- 78% ≠ 97%
-- 62% ≠ 97%

Is it plausible some of the very small possible increase (I say "possible" because the surface temperature record reaching back that far has been hopelessly corrupted, but for the sake of argument let's assume it hasn't been) in recorded lower atmosphere temperatures since 1800 can be attributed to human activity? Of course! But that's not the issue.

Quote:

And as for your other link...so a dozen or so out of the over 11k scientists looked at...



And again you indicate your willful ignorance. It's not "over 11k scientists", it's 77. Have you not even read the Cook et al paper yet? Because I have. 

Quote:

Also, even the scientists in that article admit that humans activity is responsible for a significant portion of global warming.



Which scientists? And by the way, "opine" is not a synonym for "admit".

The bottom line is that the AMS survey I linked covers twenty-four times more respondents than does the blatantly bogus survey by Cook et al, and the split between those respondents is nearly even: just a hair more than half believe that what little global warming is occurring is mostly caused by humans. Note that it can't even be determined from the answers just what it is that humans are doing to cause this warming. There is no way, for example to determine how many respondents believe the warming is caused not by burning fossil fuels but instead by paving over vast stretches of the earth, or deforesting big chunks of the Amazon rain forest, or depositing industrial soot onto ice caps, for example.

Quote:

Enlil said:
You admit there is climate change but deny that humans have contributed significantly to it?  Find me a national or international scientific body that agrees with you.



Done. See above. Is the American Meteorological Society not a national scientific body?



Phred


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred] * 1
    #19373214 - 01/05/14 02:15 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Phred said:

Done. See above. Is the American Meteorological Society not a national scientific body?




Wow...you really are ignorant about it.  You don't even know the position held by your own source?  Here is what the AMS says about global warming:

"There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities."
http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechange.html

It goes on to say:

"Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing warming will increase risks and stresses to human societies, economies, ecosystems, and wildlife through the 21st century and beyond, making it imperative that society respond to a changing climate."


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19373252 - 01/05/14 02:27 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Gee... a position drafted by the board of directors of an organization a year and a half ago conflicts with the current opinions of the membership at large. That's a first!

Look, I have never denied that many (perhaps even most) of the scientists in the world believe that fifty per cent or more of the very small amount of supposed warming recorded in the last two centuries, or even the last century, or even the last half century, is due to human activity. What I have truthfully pointed out is:

-- scientific fact is not determined by consensus.
-- global warming alarmists lie about the degree of whatever actual consensus there is

That is entirely apart from the political factors of the whole global warming hoax. Even if humans - by burning stuff - are delaying by a teensy bit the inevitable coming of the next ice age (and yes, Enlil, it is inevitable) that is hardly justification for wasting enormous sums of money in an admittedly futile attempt to alter the rate of that warming to any measurable degree.


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19373276 - 01/05/14 02:32 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Your quoted source, the AMS, seems to be pretty adamant that is it "imperative that society respond to changing climate" and that it will "require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions."  That you disagree is of no consequence, really.  You're not an expert any more than I am.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19373371 - 01/05/14 02:55 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

You're not an expert any more than I am.



No, I am vastly more knowledgeable on the subject than you. Your entire argument is based on unquestioningly believing authority figures (such as Cook, Nuccitelli et al) who have been repeatedly shown to twist reality to suit their own ends. Or did you miss that whole Climategate thing?


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19373406 - 01/05/14 03:04 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Phred said:
No, I am vastly more knowledgeable on the subject than you.



Lol...now you're turning it into a dick size contest?  Feel free, dude.  I don't claim to be an expert on climate change, and I don't believe you to be one.  If, however, your frail ego requires you to claim superiority in the subject matter...by all means, do what you have to do.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19373444 - 01/05/14 03:16 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

If, however, your frail ego requires you to claim superiority in the subject matter...by all means, do what you have to do.



It has nothing to do with ego and everything to do with fact. It is a fact that your precious 97% figure is hogwash. It is also fact that the reason I could prove it is hogwash was due not to "...information fed to you by those who share your political philosophy," but to my familiarity with the subject matter. 

Your claim was that there was no real debate among "experts". I have conclusively demonstrated there is in fact such debate. My ability to show your uncritically-accepted 97% shibboleth as hokum is not because I'm "just another conservative defending the party line simply because it's the party line," but because I know my stuff.


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19373482 - 01/05/14 03:28 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Phred said:
I know my stuff.



No need to be so defensive, dude.  No one is attacking you.  We all think you're very smart and well-informed.  You're just a super guy, all around, and everyone respects you and what you say.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19374258 - 01/05/14 06:37 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

I am impressed with Enlil lately. My first impression was that of a cookie cutter libertarian nutjob like Zappa and Starfire but time and time again he has demonstrated legitimate critical thinking.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: sytar]
    #19374268 - 01/05/14 06:40 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

I fully agree.  He's one of the most balanced and honest players here.  :manofapproval:


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19374626 - 01/05/14 08:13 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Phred said:
-- scientific fact is not determined by consensus.




At some point you have to ask yourself, "Are all those scientists, with fancy PhDs in every possible field, who are over 90% in agreement with each other that Global Warming is real, wrong, after spending lifetimes studying the data...And am I really right?"

Here's the answer: You are wrong. They are right.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Confucian]
    #19375802 - 01/06/14 04:28 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

At some point you have to ask yourself, "Are all those scientists, with fancy PhDs in every possible field, who are over 90% in agreement with each other that Global Warming is real, wrong, after spending lifetimes studying the data...And am I really right?"



And what of the thousands of scientists equivalent in every way to the ones you just described, who disagree with them? Scientists like Richard Linzen, Judith Curry, Willy Soon, Idso, Tol and literally thousands of others?

The alarmists bluster "the science is settled" and "the consensus is solid", but neither statement is even remotely true. The link I provided shows the split is as close as damn to 50-50 in the largest scientific body of atmospheric scientists in the world - the American Meteorological Society. Half and half.

So which half is right? The alarmists or the skeptics? The observed data is on the side of the skeptics. Observation trumps speculation every time, my friend.


Phred


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19375852 - 01/06/14 05:09 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Phred said:
The link I provided shows the split is as close as damn to 50-50 in the largest scientific body of atmospheric scientists in the world - the American Meteorological Society. Half and half.




No, it doesn't.  I'm convinced you didn't even read the document you linked. First, that study only got data from 1821 members of the organization.  This is about 1/4 of the total members.  Further, even among those that did respond, only 9% said that AGW is not occurring.  An additional 17% said that there was not enough information to determine whether or not AGW is occurring.  73%, however, said that humans are at least partially responsible for GW.

That is far from a 50/50 split.  And those are just the ones that voluntarily responded.

The study also looked at publications and found that, "93% of actively publishing climate scientists indicated they are convinced that humans have contributed to global warming."

Now, where is your 50/50 split again?


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19375878 - 01/06/14 05:28 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

I'm convinced you didn't even read the document you linked.



Clearly you didn't.

Quote:

First, that study only got data from 1821 members of the organization.  This is about 1/4 of the total members.



That's a whole hell of a lot better than your precious 97% paper. Cook and Nuccitelli got data from 77 out of just under 12,000. That's substantially less than one per cent. Then, like so many other global alarmists, they just couldn't resist misrepresenting the data derived from that paltry sample. 

Quote:

73%, however, said that humans are at least partially responsible for GW.



Once again, 73% ≠ 97. And once again, there are almost no skeptical scientists who will categorically state that human activity produces no climate change at all. Of course human activity affects climate! So does termite activity. The question has always been: by how much?

Quote:

The study also looked at publications and found that, "93% of actively publishing climate scientists indicated they are convinced that humans have contributed to global warming."



Now you are just repeating yourself. Once again --

-- "publishing climate scientists" ≠ "scientists"
-- "have contributed to" ≠ "are the major cause of"
-- "human activity" ≠ "humans burning stuff"
-- 93% ≠ 97%

Quote:

Now, where is your 50/50 split again?



In the table in the linked survey.


Phred


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19375923 - 01/06/14 05:49 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

The table doesn't support your 50/50 theory either. The only way it even gets close (48/52) is if you include those that think that humans are equally responsible for GW in the 48%.  That's a ridiculous argument.

My claim has always been that the scientific consensus is that humans are responsible for a SIGNIFICANT portion of GW.  Your study, as weak as it is, supports my claim.

In fact, EVERY SOURCE you've linked supports my claim.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19376157 - 01/06/14 07:46 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Can we include natural phenomenon? Like CO vents, fault lines, fissures,magma glows and volcanoes? Since the formation of the planet these events have dumped pollutants and ash into the atmosphere on a scale that humans in a thousand years couldn't match. They might be partially to blame more so than petrol addicted humans and cow farts


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: myc_check1212]
    #19376175 - 01/06/14 07:54 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

I'm no expert, so I'm just going with what the experts say...and the vast majority of them say that human activity is a significant cause of global warming.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19376189 - 01/06/14 08:01 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
I'm no expert, so I'm just going with what the experts say...and the vast majority of them say that human activity is a significant cause of global warming.




with due respect to the experts, they're missing a big part of the equation


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