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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19370500 - 01/04/14 10:03 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Your ignorance is showing again.  Smog and climate change are unrelated.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19370947 - 01/05/14 12:27 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Your ignorance has been showing for days.  You keep claiming '97% of scientists by consensus' you should know as a lawyer how to argue.  claiming that some experts agree on something somehow makes it true is a logical fallacy called 'appeal to authority'

Now, I know you can do better than that.  But then again, many arguments in favor of global warming are riddled with specious reasoning.  And to be fair, many arguments against it are also specious. 


Note that I never said there is no global climate change.  I just said there is insufficient experiment and data to draw any conclusion. 

By the way, according to one environmental research group (If I can find the link I will post it) CO2 and methane, 2 of the supposedly bad greenhouse gases, are insignificant sources of heat trapping.  The 2 KNOWN MAJOR SOURCES of causing dramatic temperature change are 1) Solar Activity and 2) Water Vapor. 

With number 2) I now propose a hypothesis:  Since catalytic converters convert harmful engine emissions into water vapor (and CO2) the conversion of harmful emissions into water vapor will lead to global temperature increase.  :smirk:


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19371680 - 01/05/14 07:45 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Once again, you've failed to read and understand.  I never said that it must be true because 97% of scientists agree.  I said that I am not an expert, but that 97% of experts agree that climate change is the product of human activity.  As a result, I choose to go with the 97%.

A 97% consensus is very compelling evidence.  All of your arguments about faulty science etc. are undercut by the fact that 97% of experts see it differently.  Either 97% are incompetent because they can't spot incompetence, or they are biased.  In either case, that would mean that 97% of experts are not experts at all.

I'm going to need a bit more than the word of a few internet knowitalls to believe that the 97% are lying or are not experts.

If there were a legitimate debate about the issue, there would be some national or international science bodies that would disagree with the theory of anthropogenic global warming.  There isn't...not a single one.  Are you really arguing that all of those scientists missed the flaws in the AGW argument?  I'm sorry...I don't buy that 97% of experts are actually incompetent.

That only leaves bias/intentional misrepresentation.  As unlikely the notion of 97% incompetence rate is, the notion that 97% are engaged in some kind of conspiracy to deceive the public is absurd to the point of lunacy.  I've only seen that kind of thinking among the truther crowd.

Finally, lets focus this back on topic where it started.  The EPA's treatment of CO2 as a pollutant is based on scientific findings by national/international scientific bodies.  You claim those findings are incorrect.  Tell me, how would you rather the EPA make decisions:  1) By listening to the scientific community, or 2) by political process


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19371692 - 01/05/14 07:47 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

:thumbup:


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19371782 - 01/05/14 08:32 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:A 97% consensus is very compelling evidence.  All of your arguments about faulty science etc. are undercut by the fact that 97% of experts see it differently.  Either 97% are incompetent because they can't spot incompetence, or they are biased.  In either case, that would mean that 97% of experts are not experts at all.



Why do you continue to accept the obviously bogus number as gospel? The Cook, Nuccitelli et al paper has been so thoroughly debunked by so many people who actually know statistics and research design protocols (not even to mention the blatant and deliberate misrepresentation by Cook et al) that you look absurd endlessly parroting the number. It's bogus. 

Quote:

If there were a legitimate debate about the issue, there would be some national or international science bodies that would disagree with the theory of anthropogenic global warming.  There isn't...not a single one.



There are thousands of scientists who disagree. It's not hard to discover that very obvious fact.

Quote:

As unlikely the notion of 97% incompetence rate is, the notion that 97% are engaged in some kind of conspiracy to deceive the public is absurd to the point of lunacy.  I've only seen that kind of thinking among the truther crowd.



I have to admit I am baffled by your deliberate refusal to educate yourself on this issue. I've seen you post some extremely intelligent stuff on this board, so your inability to grasp that occasionally scientific papers are published which on closer inspection turn out to be bogus comes as a real surprise.

Quote:

Finally, lets focus this back on topic where it started.  The EPA's treatment of CO2 as a pollutant is based on scientific findings by national/international scientific bodies.



No, it isn't. The EPA's ruling was based on a complete and utter ignorance of science and an absurd redefinition of a commonly-used word: "pollutant".

Quote:

Tell me, how would you rather the EPA make decisions:  1) By listening to the scientific community, or 2) by political process.



The decision by the EPA to categorize CO2 as a "pollutant" was reached through a blatantly political process.



Phred


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19371878 - 01/05/14 09:09 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

You keep saying it was thoroughly debunked as if I'm supposed to take your word for it.  I don't.


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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19371917 - 01/05/14 09:22 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

There are thousands of scientists who disagree. It's not hard to discover that very obvious fact.




I find this very very hard to believe, do you have any sources to such a bogus claim?


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #19372204 - 01/05/14 10:31 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

The_Red_Crayon said:
Quote:

There are thousands of scientists who disagree. It's not hard to discover that very obvious fact.




I find this very very hard to believe, do you have any sources to such a bogus claim?



When I say it's not hard to discover, I mean it's not hard to discover. That's what search engines are for. But if you insist on being spoonfed, here's some information about a survey of 1,854 scientists whose specialty is meteorology and atmospheric science.

Quote:

Not all scientists agree that global warming is man-made. Nearly half of meteorologists and atmospheric science experts don’t believe that human activities are the driving force behind global warming, according to a survey by the American Meteorological Society.

The survey of AMS members found that while 52 percent of American Meteorological Society members believe climate change is occurring and mostly human-induced, 48 percent of members do not believe in man-made global warming.




So there's almost a thousand just there, in just one scientific organization located in a single country. Click the link above and read the whole paper if you wish. While Red Crayon is doing that, let's look a little deeper into this survey, shall we?

Quote:

Furthermore, the survey found that scientists who professed “liberal political views” were much more likely to believe in the theory of man-made global warming than those who without liberal views.



I'm shocked! Shocked, I say!

Quote:

“Political ideology was the factor next most strongly associated with meteorologists’ views about global warming. This also goes against the idea of scientists’ opinions being entirely based on objective analysis of the evidence, and concurs with previous studies that have shown scientists’ opinions on topics to vary along with their political orientation,” writes survey author Neil Stenhouse of George Mason University.

“The result suggests that members of professional scientific organizations have not been immune to influence by the political polarization on climate change that has affected politicians and the general public,” Stenhouse writes.



No shit, Sherlock. It's not a question of "the science is settled" but of "vote the party line, Komrad! Al Gore says it is so, therefore it must be so... he is so much smarter than that evil chimpy MacBushHaliburton, after all."

Then there is the ongoing online petition you can check out here. Over thirty thousand signatures so far, though not all are atmospheric scientists.


Quote:

Enlil said:

You keep saying it was thoroughly debunked as if I'm supposed to take your word for it.  I don't.



That's why I said your ignorance is deliberate. You believe the bogus number because your God, community organizer B. H. Obama proclaimed it to be so. Why expend the effort to do even rudimentary fact-checking?

If you had shown even a fraction of the skepticism to such an obviously fake number you showed to the conventional wisdom on the George Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin case, you would have easily discovered articles such as this one --

Quote:

97% Study Falsely Classifies Scientists' Papers, according to the scientists that published them

The paper, Cook et al. (2013) 'Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature' searched the Web of Science for the phrases "global warming" and "global climate change" then categorizing these results to their alleged level of endorsement of AGW. These results were then used to allege a 97% consensus on human-caused global warming.

To get to the truth, I emailed a sample of scientists whose papers were used in the study and asked them if the categorization by Cook et al. (2013) is an accurate representation of their paper. Their responses are eye opening and evidence that the Cook et al. (2013) team falsely classified scientists' papers as "endorsing AGW", apparently believing to know more about the papers than their authors.



I suggest you go to the link and see how many scientists agree that the Cook et al paper misrepresents their work.

Cook and his cohorts claim they sent out questionnaires to almost 12,000 scientists. Yet just 77 answered the question, so it isn't a sample size of almost 12,000 scientists, it is a sample of 77 scientists, several of whom explicitly say their research has been misrepresented. Besides, the question asked is worthless:

Quote:

The question Cook and his alarmist colleagues surveyed was simply whether humans have caused some global warming. The question is meaningless regarding the global warming debate because most skeptics as well as most alarmists believe humans have caused some global warming. The issue of contention dividing alarmists and skeptics is whether humans are causing global warming of such negative severity as to constitute a crisis demanding concerted action.



Indeed. Has human activity caused some change in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere since 1800 or 1850 or whenever? Almost certainly! So has termite activity. The disagreement among scientists looking into the issue is over the magnitude of that change.

Quote:

Viewing the Cook paper in the best possible light, Cook and colleagues can perhaps claim a small amount of wiggle room in their classifications because the explicit wording of the question they analyzed is simply whether humans have caused some global warming. By restricting the question to such a minimalist, largely irrelevant question in the global warming debate and then demanding an explicit, unsolicited refutation of the assertion in order to classify a paper as a ‘consensus’ contrarian, Cook and colleagues misleadingly induce people to believe 97 percent of publishing scientists believe in a global warming crisis when that is simply not the case.

Misleading the public about consensus opinion regarding global warming, of course, is precisely what the Cook paper sought to accomplish. This is a tried and true ruse perfected by global warming alarmists. Global warming alarmists use their own biased, subjective judgment to misclassify published papers according to criteria that is largely irrelevant to the central issues in the global warming debate. Then, by carefully parsing the language of their survey questions and their published results, the alarmists encourage the media and fellow global warming alarmists to cite these biased, subjective, totally irrelevant surveys as conclusive evidence for the lie that nearly all scientists believe humans are creating a global warming crisis.

These biased, misleading, and totally irrelevant “surveys” form the best “evidence” global warming alarmists can muster in the global warming debate. And this truly shows how embarrassingly feeble their alarmist theory really is.



Tru dat.


Phred


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #19372312 - 01/05/14 10:55 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

The_Red_Crayon said:
Quote:

There are thousands of scientists who disagree. It's not hard to discover that very obvious fact.




I find this very very hard to believe, do you have any sources to such a bogus claim?





http://www.petitionproject.org/index.php



That was found with a 20 second internet search  :smirk:

http://inpursuitofhappiness.wordpress.com/2008/02/12/22000-scientists-disagree-with-un-global-warming-push/


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19372401 - 01/05/14 11:17 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

One more point:  Scientists can't even predict the weather with any accuracy a week ahead, but we are supposed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and put the worlds energy resources under control of the UN because they can predict what's going to happen in a hundred years??????


:lolsy:


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Phred]
    #19372415 - 01/05/14 11:23 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Phred, do you even read your own sources?  Here is a quote from YOUR LINK:

"93% of actively publishing climate scientists indicated they are convinced that humans have contributed to global warming. Our findings also revealed that majorities of experts view human activity as the primary cause of recent climate change: 78% of climate experts actively publishing on climate change, 73% of all people actively publishing on climate change, and 62% of active publishers who mostly do not publish on climate change. These results, together with those of other similar studies, suggest high levels of expert consensus about human-caused climate change (Farnsworth & Lichter 2012, Bray 2010)." (emphasis mine)

And as for your other link...so a dozen or so out of the over 11k scientists looked at claim that errors were made?  wow...that's compelling, dude.  Also, even the scientists in that article admit that humans activity is responsible for a significant portion of global warming.

I also really loved how you made it a political issue by invoking the name of a president that I didn't even vote for.  Just one more reason to doubt your objectivity on the issue.


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19372425 - 01/05/14 11:25 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

starfire_xes said:
One more point:  Scientists can't even predict the weather with any accuracy a week ahead, but we are supposed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and put the worlds energy resources under control of the UN because they can predict what's going to happen in a hundred years??????





How many times do I have to tell you?  Weather and climate are not the same thing.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19372545 - 01/05/14 11:54 AM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
Quote:

starfire_xes said:
One more point:  Scientists can't even predict the weather with any accuracy a week ahead, but we are supposed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and put the worlds energy resources under control of the UN because they can predict what's going to happen in a hundred years??????





How many times do I have to tell you?  Weather and climate are not the same thing.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html





I know weather and climate arent the same thing but they are related.  And what makes you think scientists can predict the climate in 100 years?  Based on an unproven hypothesis and driven by people with a political agenda?

Note I am still not saying there is NOT climate change.  I am saying I don't see a compelling reason to turn over control of the worlds energy resources to a political agency based on an UNPROVEN hypothesis.

Just remember what Van Jones, the short lived 'green czar' of the first Obama administration said:

"The color of communism is no longer red.  It is green."

Green and global warming have nothing to do with the health of the planet.  They have to do with a political agenda. 

By the way, every time there is a tornado or storm, why do the climate clowns start screaming "SEE!!! GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?"


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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19372585 - 01/05/14 12:03 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

starfire_xes said:

I know weather and climate arent the same thing but they are related.  And what makes you think scientists can predict the climate in 100 years? 


Stop making strawman arguments.  Nowhere in any post have I claimed that scientists can accurately predict the climate in 100 years.  That has NOTHING to do with my claim. 
Quote:

Note I am still not saying there is NOT climate change.  I am saying I don't see a compelling reason to turn over control of the worlds energy resources to a political agency based on an UNPROVEN hypothesis.


What, exactly, is the unproven hypothesis?  You admit there is climate change but deny that humans have contributed significantly to it?  Find me a national or international scientific body that agrees with you.
Quote:


By the way, every time there is a tornado or storm, why do the climate clowns start screaming "SEE!!! GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?"


Because an increase in global temperatures increases the likelihood of more severe weather over the long run.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19372683 - 01/05/14 12:24 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
Quote:

starfire_xes said:

I know weather and climate arent the same thing but they are related.  And what makes you think scientists can predict the climate in 100 years? 


Stop making strawman arguments.  Nowhere in any post have I claimed that scientists can accurately predict the climate in 100 years.  That has NOTHING to do with my claim. 
Quote:

Note I am still not saying there is NOT climate change.  I am saying I don't see a compelling reason to turn over control of the worlds energy resources to a political agency based on an UNPROVEN hypothesis.


What, exactly, is the unproven hypothesis?  You admit there is climate change but deny that humans have contributed significantly to it?  Find me a national or international scientific body that agrees with you.
Quote:


By the way, every time there is a tornado or storm, why do the climate clowns start screaming "SEE!!! GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?"


Because an increase in global temperatures increases the likelihood of more severe weather over the long run.





Show ME the proof of MAN MADE climate change.  Can't?

I didn't admit there is climate change.  I said I am not saying there is not climate change, or let me clarify that I don't have enough evidence either way to say it is caused by MAN.

And I presented a link with 31,000+ american scientists alone who don't believe the theory.  Did you look at it? 

By the way, do you think that the large number of scientists who are funded by a political organiation (The UN) to do research on climate change can just come right out and say, aww, this is bullshit? 

It takes just a little research to find data analysis that shows that global climate change predictions arent happening like the Global Alarmists have predicted

It takes a lof of research to find valid data supporting it.

It takes little research to find people who claim 'the consensus is' or 'oh my god, the sea level rise will flood coastal cities' or 'the polar bears or dying'

That is, it is easy to find logical fallacies masquerading as science.  So let me tell you this one more time:

Science does NOT depend on consensus.  It only depends on the truth. 

There was also once a consensus that the earth was flat, and that evolution was bullshit, and that the earth was the center of the universe.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19372722 - 01/05/14 12:33 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

First, there was never a scientific consensus that the earth was flat.  That's just nonsense.

Second, your petition just proves my point that the debate only exists in the public, the media, and politics.  It doesn't exist in the scientific community. 

I think this discussion has run its course...at least for my part.  I've yet to see any compelling evidence undercutting the strong evidence in favor of the AGW argument and consensus thereof.  You, phred, and anyone else are all free to disregard the mountains of studies and evidence.  I choose to take what I consider to be the only rational approach to the issue:  Deferring to those people who are experts in the field.  Should new information become available in the future, I'll change my views accordingly if I deem it warranted.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19372785 - 01/05/14 12:46 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:

I think this discussion has run its course...at least for my part.  I've yet to see any compelling evidence undercutting the strong evidence in favor of the AGW argument and consensus thereof.  You, phred, and anyone else are all free to disregard the mountains of studies and evidence.  I choose to take what I consider to be the only rational approach to the issue:  Deferring to those people who are experts in the field.  Should new information become available in the future, I'll change my views accordingly if I deem it warranted.





Well, talk about ignorance.  What did the IPCC say in the fifth annual assesment review?  (AR5)


Here is what the are now saying about all the supposed 'apocalyptic events' arising from MMGW:


    Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (a circulating current in the north Atlantic in which waters at high latitudes are cooled, sink and flow toward the equator, are warmed, rise to the surface, and then flow once more toward higher latitudes): Very unlikely (0-10%) that the AMOC will undergo a rapid transition (high confidence).

    Ice sheet collapse: Exceptionally unlikely (0-1%) that either Greenland or West Antarctic Ice sheets will suffer near-complete disintegration (high confidence).

    Permafrost carbon release: Possible that permafrost will become a net source of atmospheric greenhouse gases (low confidence).

    Clathrate methane release: Very unlikely (0-10%) that methane from clathrates will undergo catastrophic release (high confidence).

    Tropical forests dieback: Low confidence in projections of the collapse of large areas of tropical forest.

    Boreal forests dieback: Low confidence in projections of the collapse of large areas of boreal forest.

    Disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice: Likely (66-100%) that the Arctic Ocean becomes nearly ice-free in September before mid-century under high forcing scenarios such as RCP8.5 (medium confidence).

    Long-term droughts: Low confidence in projections of changes in the frequency and duration of megadroughts.

    Monsoonal circulation: Low confidence in projections of a collapse in monsoon circulations.


THIS IS THE IPCC's OWN Conclusion.  HERE IS THE LINK TO THEIR RESEARCH--

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.Usm2NMeabDd



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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19372824 - 01/05/14 12:55 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

More irrelevant bullshit.  This discussion isn't about possible outcomes of global warming...It's about causes of global warming.


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: Enlil]
    #19372870 - 01/05/14 01:05 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
More irrelevant bullshit.  This discussion isn't about possible outcomes of global warming...It's about causes of global warming.





Its completely relevant.  It is what they base their power grab on. :lolsy:

You are a cultist, you know that?  No matter what is presented, you will believe what you believe.  Because that is what the Cult Proclaims .


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Re: Republicans and Democrats Explain Something To Me..... [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19372900 - 01/05/14 01:10 PM (10 years, 1 month ago)

It's not relevant to anything I've said.  I've made ZERO claims about the effects of global warming.  My thesis is, and has always been, that there is a strong scientific consensus that human activity is a significant cause of global warming.

That's it.

http://thecontributor.com/why-climate-deniers-have-no-scientific-credibility-one-pie-chart

All of your other bullshit is just attacking a claim I never made.  That's what people do when they can't attack the claim made.


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