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Rufarian
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How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph
#19139919 - 11/15/13 07:45 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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The austerity fervor that’s seized Washington ever since the 2010 elections has lead to a sudden, steep drop in spending on building things. The collapse in infrastructure spending is illustrated in this chart from investment research firm BCA Research:

We passed 4 separate massive infrastructure bills under President Bush, then Obama was elected and suddenly we no longer needed roads according to the extremists in the Republican Party.
There are other factors, such as the Republican sequestration and the Republican shutdown.
Republicans can not be reasoned with the only way to fix this country is to vote out all Republicans in 2014.
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qman
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian] 1
#19140012 - 11/15/13 08:24 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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When a nation has debt to GDP at over 100%, over $17 trillion in debt, and annual $1 trillion plus deficits, how much infrastructure spending can even be done? Not much.
BOTH parties know that infrastructure spending is NOT an option, we are broke, this is what happens.
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luvdemshrooms
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian]
#19140053 - 11/15/13 08:37 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Rufarian said: The austerity fervor that’s seized Washington ever since the 2010 elections has lead to a sudden, steep drop in spending on building things.
Excellent!
-------------------- You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers
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sytar
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: luvdemshrooms]
#19140229 - 11/15/13 09:42 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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You can afford plenty since the real interest rates on treasury bonds is negative. Imagine you went to a bank for a loan and they said, "we can loan you as much as you want, and for every $10 you borrow we will pay YOU an additional $1". You'd be some kind of collosal idiot not to borrow as much as you could. The debt level could become "problematic" in the future when yields on treasury notes rise, but it isn't a real problem; a sovereign issuer of currency can never go bankrupt (Greece isn't a sovereign issuer of currency, by the way). We could just inflate our way back to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio while, yes, reducing spending. But reductions in spending should observe Okun's Law and only come down when unemployment comes down to full employment levels so we so not suffer losses in GDP.
-------------------- I post from my phone. Excuse the typos and autocorrects.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: luvdemshrooms]
#19140262 - 11/15/13 09:54 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
luvdemshrooms said:
Quote:
Rufarian said: The austerity fervor that’s seized Washington ever since the 2010 elections has lead to a sudden, steep drop in spending on building things.
Excellent!
It worked for Europe!
Oh wait... no it didn't.
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qman
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar] 1
#19140270 - 11/15/13 09:56 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sytar said: You can afford plenty since the real interest rates on treasury bonds is negative. Imagine you went to a bank for a loan and they said, "we can loan you as much as you want, and for every $10 you borrow we will pay YOU an additional $1". You'd be some kind of collosal idiot not to borrow as much as you could. The debt level could become "problematic" in the future when yields on treasury notes rise, but it isn't a real problem; a sovereign issuer of currency can never go bankrupt (Greece isn't a sovereign issuer of currency, by the way). We could just inflate our way back to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio while, yes, reducing spending. But reductions in spending should observe Okun's Law and only come down when unemployment comes down to full employment levels so we so not suffer losses in GDP.
"real interest rates on treasury bonds is negative"
Not for the government, we pay interest on the debt.
"We could just inflate our way back to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio"
Sure, devalue the currency by -50% and the numbers turn out great.
Edited by qman (11/15/13 10:13 AM)
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Me_Roy
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19140281 - 11/15/13 09:58 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Yeah, jeezus, OP -- it's not like China's long, massive boom had anything to do with infrastructure spending.
Also, you assume that infrastructure is anything but a black hole. What, do you think that roads, bridges, and rail lines can be used to move goods to market?
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sytar
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Me_Roy]
#19140581 - 11/15/13 11:27 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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"real interest rates on treasury bonds is negative"
Not for the government, we pay interest on the debt.
"We could just inflate our way back to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio"
Sure, devalue the currency by -50% and the numbers turn out great.
=========
The interest payments do not outpace inflation. You don't understand what REAL interest rates are.
-------------------- I post from my phone. Excuse the typos and autocorrects.
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qman
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar] 1
#19140898 - 11/15/13 01:01 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sytar said: "real interest rates on treasury bonds is negative"
Not for the government, we pay interest on the debt.
"We could just inflate our way back to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio"
Sure, devalue the currency by -50% and the numbers turn out great.
=========
The interest payments do not outpace inflation. You don't understand what REAL interest rates are.
I understand what "real" interest rates are, you don't understand that the government pays interest on the debt, who cares if you think the rates are below the rate of inflation, what difference does that make?
Do you think having the 10 year US bond trading with a 5% yield in a 6% annual rate of inflation gives a government the green light to spend away without any consequences?
No it doesn't, it makes no difference, they are still paying 5% when they issue a 10 year bond.
Real negative interest rates are more important for investors, they tend not get too excited owning a bond that under-performs relative to inflation, so much so that they don't even buy them, so guess who does? The Federal Reserve and its printing press, is this the great solution you propose for economic prosperity?
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Gorlax



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: qman]
#19141173 - 11/15/13 02:46 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Dude what are you even saying? Obama is liberal?!? Your argument really doesn't make sense. The most drastic decline is in the Obama administration!! LOL
Also what makes you think that Obama is pro infrastructure! All I really have seen him do is pass a bunch of laws that help poor minorities...
Quote:
We passed 4 separate massive infrastructure bills under President Bush, then Obama was elected and suddenly we no longer needed roads according to the extremists in the Republican Party.
that graph correlates with the 2001 9/11 attacks. This isn't 1930, building another hoover dam won't recover the economy...
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Gorlax] 1
#19141231 - 11/15/13 03:00 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
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sweeper54



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19141395 - 11/15/13 03:41 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
Go a long ways to line the rich pockets
The construction of Keystone XL, which would generate 3,950 person-years of work according to the U.S. Department of State, has a job creation potential on par with building a shopping mall or the campus renovations the University of Oregon announced last week.
Moreover, after it's built, Keystone XL will only employ between 35 and 50 people — and some of those positions will be filled in Canada. That's a small fraction of the long-term employment benefits one could expect from a shopping mall.
from
http://www.livescience.com/38735-putting-keystone-pipeline-job-numbers-in-context.html
Fox Anchor Martha MacCallum: 20,000 Jobs Is "The Low-End Estimate." On America's Newsroom, host Martha MacCallum said:
TransCanada Said In 2010 That Keystone XL Pipeline "Is Expected To Create Over ... 13,000 New Jobs For American Workers." In a 2010 press release by TransCanada, the company funding the Keystone XL pipeline, touted their connection with various unions and claimed they would "create over seven million hours of labor and over 13,000 new jobs for American workers." From the press release:
Going Down
Wash. Post: Based On TransCanada's Numbers, "The Number Of People Employed" Would Actually Be 6,500. A November 5 article in The Washington Post reported that TransCanada CEO Russ Girling "said Friday that the 13,000 figure was actually not a true job number, but actually accounted for 'one person, one year.'" The Post added that "if the construction jobs lasted two years, the number of people employed in each of the two years would be 6,500." From the article:
State Department: "The Construction Work Force Would Consist Of Approximately 5,000 To 6,000 Workers." The U.S. Department of State's Final Environmental Impact Statement for the pipeline stated that a "construction work force would consist of approximately 5,000 to 6,000 workers." The contractor who conducted the study had financial ties to TransCanada; the inspector general has launched an investigation into the matter. From the report:
Cornell University Global Labor Institute: Based On TransCanada's Numbers, "The Project Will Create No More Than 2,500-4,600 Temporary Direct Construction Jobs." From Cornell University Global Labor Institute's report:
Cornell University Global Labor Institute: "Based On The Figures Provided By TransCanada For The Canadian Section Of The Pipeline, The New Permanent US Pipeline Jobs In The US Number As Few As 50." From Cornell University Global Labor Institute's report:
http://mediamatters.org/research/2011/12/08/fox-still-pushing-discredited-keystone-xl-pipel/151455
I'm sure you can come up with other numbers
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19141407 - 11/15/13 03:44 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
The Keystone XL Pipeline that is said to create fewer than 50 perminent full time jobs?
Yeah, that would go a long, long way
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54] 2
#19141462 - 11/15/13 04:02 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sweeper54 said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
Go a long ways to line the rich pockets
The construction of Keystone XL, which would generate 3,950 person-years of work according to the U.S. Department of State, has a job creation potential on par with building a shopping mall or the campus renovations the University of Oregon announced last week.
Moreover, after it's built, Keystone XL will only employ between 35 and 50 people — and some of those positions will be filled in Canada. That's a small fraction of the long-term employment benefits one could expect from a shopping mall.
from
http://www.livescience.com/38735-putting-keystone-pipeline-job-numbers-in-context.html
Ohhhh I'll definitely accept what this guy says as authoritative.
Quote:
Anthony Swift is an attorney in the International Program at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
It is local energy and gets us away from the Arab oil tit. Cheaper energy always fosters jobs and I don't know why this guy is so cavalier about blowing off 4,000 man years of employment, whatever orifice he pulled that from is irrelevant. I suspect it is way low but it is still better than none. Further neither it nore the shopping mall will cost the taxpayer a dime and will in fact generate tax revenues. Are you so twisted that you would deny a taxpayer the right to make enough money to pay the taxes that pay for everything you want the government to buy you? Killing the goose laying the eggs that feed you .Quote:
I'm sure you can come up with other numbers
Why bother. They are all more than zero.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains] 2
#19141468 - 11/15/13 04:04 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mush4Brains said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
The Keystone XL Pipeline that is said to create fewer than 50 perminent full time jobs?
Yeah, that would go a long, long way 
Said so by whom? Drooling retards?
Construction jobs are never permanent unless it is a government project. Private construction starts a project and completes it and then the workers move on to the next one. That's how it works in Realville.
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sweeper54



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19141472 - 11/15/13 04:05 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Why bother when your wrong.
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sweeper54



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54]
#19141479 - 11/15/13 04:06 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Two different references in my post
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54]
#19141488 - 11/15/13 04:09 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sweeper54 said: Why bother when your wrong.
Wrong about what?
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sytar
Radiant



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19141549 - 11/15/13 04:26 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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I understand what "real" interest rates are, you don't understand that the government pays interest on the debt, who cares if you think the rates are below the rate of inflation, what difference does that make?
===========
What difference does it make? God you are ignorant. It means, in real dollars, we are not paying interest payments. Rather, the people we are borrowing from are paying us interest. Who taught you to care about nominal dollars?
-------------------- I post from my phone. Excuse the typos and autocorrects.
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qman
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar] 2
#19141665 - 11/15/13 04:53 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sytar said: I understand what "real" interest rates are, you don't understand that the government pays interest on the debt, who cares if you think the rates are below the rate of inflation, what difference does that make?
===========
What difference does it make? God you are ignorant. It means, in real dollars, we are not paying interest payments. Rather, the people we are borrowing from are paying us interest. Who taught you to care about nominal dollars?
Do do realize that rates of inflation can change dramatically over the course of 3-5 years?
Do you realize that if you issue a 5 year bond at 1% today, you have to roll it over in 5 years, and you might have to issue the bond at a much higher rate, maybe 5%.
The US keeps accumulating more and more debt, it's never payed down, ALL the debt gets rolled over at one point.
There are no free rides for very long, if you think borrowing under the inflation rate is so great, you must think the Fed as the buyer of last resort is also a great deal.
There are NO buyers of US debt when real rates are NEGATIVE, that is a problem, maybe we don't feel the pain today, but it's coming.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar]
#19141681 - 11/15/13 04:56 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Reply to fail.
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sweeper54



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19141706 - 11/15/13 05:04 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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This
Zap wrote and won't defend
Quote:
The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole


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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54] 1
#19141753 - 11/15/13 05:12 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sweeper54 said: This
Zap wrote and won't defend
Quote:
The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
Are they not jobs? Do they cost the taxpayer anything? Will cheaper energy, much of it domestically produced through fracking, create jobs for Americans? What about the jobs gained through fracking? http://www.frackingjobs.co/north-dakota-fracking-jobs/
If we don't send money for energy to the Saudis and instead keep it here will it not foster domestic investment?
Even the socialist peckerhead cited above said there was 4,000 person years of work from Keystone. Is that not significant? That's 8 million hours for skilled workers earning real money and paying real taxes.
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sytar
Radiant



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19142342 - 11/15/13 07:33 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Do you realize that if you issue a 5 year bond at 1% today, you have to roll it over in 5 years, and you might have to issue the bond at a much higher rate, maybe 5%.
====
That's not how treasury bonds work. Whatever interest rate you issue the bond at is the interest rate you pay. Not sure what the argument here is. If a bank offers you money to take a loan, you take the loan unless you're a first class moron. This is just mathematics, not a political opinion. Unless you for some reason are gunning for us to be in worse financial shape?
If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.
-------------------- I post from my phone. Excuse the typos and autocorrects.
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starfire_xes
I Am 'They'



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar] 2
#19142485 - 11/15/13 08:03 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sytar said:
If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.
The working model of that theory is Japan in the 90's. It worked great for them didn't it? You also realize no one is buying US Bonds? Most bonds are just sold by the federal reserve and the Federal government sucking each others dicks and running the printing presses.
The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'. It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated.
They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.
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qman
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar] 2
#19142504 - 11/15/13 08:06 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sytar said: Do you realize that if you issue a 5 year bond at 1% today, you have to roll it over in 5 years, and you might have to issue the bond at a much higher rate, maybe 5%.
====
That's not how treasury bonds work. Whatever interest rate you issue the bond at is the interest rate you pay. Not sure what the argument here is. If a bank offers you money to take a loan, you take the loan unless you're a first class moron. This is just mathematics, not a political opinion. Unless you for some reason are gunning for us to be in worse financial shape?
If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.
Dude, the bonds get rolled over, that is why we have 1,2,5,7,10, and 30 year bonds. The issuer gets locked for that period of time, after that time ends you need to roll it over, understand? Why do you think the Fed rolled so much debt into 10 and 30 year paper the last 4 years? To lock in a low interest rate for 10 and 30 years!!!
"Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment"
In a perfect world yes, but it's never going to happen.
"That's the point we stop borrowing"
Says who?, your economic text book, let me clue you in, it's not going to happen, the only way we stop borrowing is when we have a currency crisis, I'm sure that's not in the text book.
"If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check"
Then why does it feel I'm doing all the informing? Your lack of understanding has already be shown several times, get over yourself.
Do you even study monetary policy? Or is this from one of your classes?
Edited by qman (11/15/13 08:08 PM)
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qman
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes] 1
#19142530 - 11/15/13 08:09 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
starfire_xes said:
Quote:
sytar said:
If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.
The working model of that theory is Japan in the 90's. It worked great for them didn't it? You also realize no one is buying US Bonds? Most bonds are just sold by the federal reserve and the Federal government sucking each others dicks and running the printing presses.
The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'. It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated.
They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.
He doesn't get it Star, we are wasting our time with this one.
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sweeper54



Registered: 11/07/12
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19142703 - 11/15/13 08:44 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
zappaisgod said:
Quote:
sweeper54 said: This
Zap wrote and won't defend
Quote:
The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
Are they not jobs? Do they cost the taxpayer anything? Will cheaper energy, much of it domestically produced through fracking, create jobs for Americans? What about the jobs gained through fracking? http://www.frackingjobs.co/north-dakota-fracking-jobs/
If we don't send money for energy to the Saudis and instead keep it here will it not foster domestic investment?
Even the socialist peckerhead cited above said there was 4,000 person years of work from Keystone. Is that not significant? That's 8 million hours for skilled workers earning real money and paying real taxes.
And how much of the CANADIAN Oil is going to stay in the US. If it was staying HERE they won't need to build a line to the GULF now would they?
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starfire_xes
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54]
#19142759 - 11/15/13 08:53 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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One of the reasons oil is sent out of the US is because there is not enough refining capacity in the US to produce gasoline, diesel, and other fractals from oil at the rate it is coming out of the ground.
That is, a good part of the high cost of gasoline and diesel is due to lack of refining capacity. that is why drops in the price of a barrel of oil don't necessarily reflect into the price of gasoline.
If there is one area where Obama might have understanding, it is that he on a certain level does support fracking and sees the economic benefits from it. unfortunately, political ideology requires him to kiss the butt of the greens.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
#19142915 - 11/15/13 09:20 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
starfire_xes said: One of the reasons oil is sent out of the US is because there is not enough refining capacity in the US to produce gasoline, diesel, and other fractals from oil at the rate it is coming out of the ground.
That is absolute bullshit. The United States is the #1 exporter in refined oil in the world. We easily could get enough oil from Canada and the United States to supply the demand of North America, but since the oil conglomerate can make more money exporting their product, they do.
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Rufarian
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19142923 - 11/15/13 09:21 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.
The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian]
#19142967 - 11/15/13 09:31 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Rufarian said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.
The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.
It would make sense... if they had a clue how shit works... but they don't. Too interested in corporate profits and making fun of the poor to actually educate yourself.
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Rufarian
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
#19142986 - 11/15/13 09:34 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
starfire_xes said: You also realize no one is buying US Bonds?
The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'. It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated.
They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.
No one is buying US bonds... really? Did you really just say that? If that were the case rates on the 10 year wouldn't be at 27.09 basis points as of Friday's close. At the end of the day the 85 billion(nearly half of that is in MBS, not bonds) in FED balance sheet expansion isn't covering our monthly deficit. Not even close.
You are wrong to say no one is buying our debt. Everyone is buying our debt. Hence the low yields.
Also, equities are pumped because they are the only game in town. Rates on bonds are low, due to high demand, not low. We are not Greece. The sky is not falling. The only thing holding this country back is right wing fear, hatred, and ignorance.
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starfire_xes
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19143011 - 11/15/13 09:39 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mush4Brains said:
Quote:
starfire_xes said: One of the reasons oil is sent out of the US is because there is not enough refining capacity in the US to produce gasoline, diesel, and other fractals from oil at the rate it is coming out of the ground.
That is absolute bullshit. The United States is the #1 exporter in refined oil in the world. We easily could get enough oil from Canada and the United States to supply the demand of North America, but since the oil conglomerate can make more money exporting their product, they do.
My only source on this is my brother, who is a chemical engineer and the regional manager of refinery operations for a very large petroleum company in the southeast US. Now, at one level of consideration, the high price of oil internationally plays into the equation (supply and demand)
There is also the concern that certain gasoline blends required in the US--specifically in california--have inadequate capacity for their production, and that is reflected in the price.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
#19143039 - 11/15/13 09:47 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
starfire_xes said: My only source on this is my brother, who is a chemical engineer and the regional manager of refinery operations for a very large petroleum company in the southeast US. Now, at one level of consideration, the high price of oil internationally plays into the equation (supply and demand)
There is also the concern that certain gasoline blends required in the US--specifically in california--have inadequate capacity for their production, and that is reflected in the price.
Your brother is pretty much spot on. The gas/oil market is global, if the US/Canada steps in and starts producing more at current levels (fracking wouldn't be economically viable at $50/barrel, about $70 is break even price) we might be able to curb the inevitable rise in gas/oil prices, but it won't ever lower it.
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qman
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian]
#19143093 - 11/15/13 10:00 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Rufarian said:
Quote:
starfire_xes said: You also realize no one is buying US Bonds?
The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'. It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated.
They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.
No one is buying US bonds... really? Did you really just say that? If that were the case rates on the 10 year wouldn't be at 27.09 basis points as of Friday's close. At the end of the day the 85 billion(nearly half of that is in MBS, not bonds) in FED balance sheet expansion isn't covering our monthly deficit. Not even close.
You are wrong to say no one is buying our debt. Everyone is buying our debt. Hence the low yields.
Also, equities are pumped because they are the only game in town. Rates on bonds are low, due to high demand, not low. We are not Greece. The sky is not falling. The only thing holding this country back is right wing fear, hatred, and ignorance.
"Everyone is buying our debt"
This is not true, foreigners have basically stop buying the bonds, but they still hold what they own.
You are correct, the $45 billion in monthly Fed buying of Treasuries does not cover the issuance, so who is buying the remaining bonds?
When the Fed buys the $40 billion in MBS off of the banks, it enables the banks to then buy the remaining T-bonds, so basically it's nothing more than a switch.
In fact, the banks buy the T-bonds on leverage, have you ever wondered how the banks are turning out strong profits the last 3 years without making loans? They are leveraged up on US T-bonds, talk about a dangerous situation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-14/only-two-charts-matter-fed
"The Fed is now monetizing a record 70% of all net US 10 year equivalent bond issuance"
Edited by qman (11/15/13 10:09 PM)
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sweeper54



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: qman]
#19144291 - 11/16/13 06:21 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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This is how much oil is imported/exported

If I did the math correctly (before morning coffee) the US imports 418.2 million tonnes, but exports 111.9
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54]
#19145243 - 11/16/13 01:05 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sweeper54 said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said:
Quote:
sweeper54 said: This
Zap wrote and won't defend
Quote:
The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
Are they not jobs? Do they cost the taxpayer anything? Will cheaper energy, much of it domestically produced through fracking, create jobs for Americans? What about the jobs gained through fracking? http://www.frackingjobs.co/north-dakota-fracking-jobs/
If we don't send money for energy to the Saudis and instead keep it here will it not foster domestic investment?
Even the socialist peckerhead cited above said there was 4,000 person years of work from Keystone. Is that not significant? That's 8 million hours for skilled workers earning real money and paying real taxes.
And how much of the CANADIAN Oil is going to stay in the US. If it was staying HERE they won't need to build a line to the GULF now would they?
Where do you think the refineries are?
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian]
#19145251 - 11/16/13 01:08 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Rufarian said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.
The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.
Why do you think that adding millions of barrels of oil to the capacity of refineries will only result in 50 jobs. What is laughable is that you accept at face value the assertions of idiots
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19145270 - 11/16/13 01:14 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
What is laughable is that you accept at face value the assertions of idiots
Oh, the irony.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19145310 - 11/16/13 01:25 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Why do accept the 50 jobs nonsense put forth by an obviously biased hack as gospel?
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19145331 - 11/16/13 01:31 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Why would I accept anything you say as credible?
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19145347 - 11/16/13 01:35 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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I do not cite myself as an authority. Now why do you think that adding millions of barrels a day to refinery production won't add any jobs.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19145378 - 11/16/13 01:42 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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You're dodging the question in point here. Why do you get to dismiss everything you disagree with as non-credible, a "hack," "biased," and every other term you use for people that don't share your world outlook? When you do things like this, you are exactly citing yourself as an authority on the matter, which you so clearly aren't.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19145468 - 11/16/13 02:00 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mush4Brains said: You're dodging the question in point here. Why do you get to dismiss everything you disagree with as non-credible, a "hack," "biased," and every other term you use for people that don't share your world outlook? When you do things like this, you are exactly citing yourself as an authority on the matter, which you so clearly aren't.
When you cite someone as an authority you have have to establish that 1. They are an actual authority and 2. That they are unbiased
I am an authority on carpentry and construction of residential homes.
Now would you like to explain why you think that adding millions of barrels of production to a refinery will only add 50 jobs
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19145491 - 11/16/13 02:06 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Well, on the face of your argument, you're full of shit.
First of all, he Keystone XL won't be moving "millions" of barrels per day, let alone even one million Secondly, you are assuming that current import levels would stay steady, and that the extra oil would be added on top of those levels, instead of replacing decreasing imports.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19145617 - 11/16/13 02:31 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mush4Brains said: Well, on the face of your argument, you're full of shit.
First of all, he Keystone XL won't be moving "millions" of barrels per day, let alone even one million
Keystone won't move a million barrels?Quote:
Secondly, you are assuming that current import levels would stay steady, and that the extra oil would be added on top of those levels, instead of replacing decreasing imports.
I don't think that is coherent
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19145717 - 11/16/13 03:05 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Keystone won't move a million barrels?
Are you changing your argument, or are you actually asking a question here?
Quote:
I don't think that is coherent
I don't think anything you say is coherent.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19145967 - 11/16/13 04:17 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mush4Brains said:
Quote:
Keystone won't move a million barrels?
Are you changing your argument, or are you actually asking a question here?
What argument?Quote:
Quote:
I don't think that is coherent
I don't think anything you say is coherent.
Feel free to try rephrase that post to make it coherent so I can figure out what the fuck you are talking about.
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sweeper54



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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19146044 - 11/16/13 04:34 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
zappaisgod said:
Quote:
Rufarian said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.
The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.
Why do you think that adding millions of barrels of oil to the capacity of refineries will only result in 50 jobs. What is laughable is that you accept at face value the assertions of idiots
If we "adding millions barrels" from Canada wouldn't we subtract millions from somewhere else? It not like we're going to use all those additional barrels here and oil is shipped as CRUDE not refined gas/fuel.
And I will trust the sources citied here over your objections and no sources.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54]
#19146079 - 11/16/13 04:43 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sweeper54 said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said:
Quote:
Rufarian said:
Quote:
zappaisgod said: The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.
No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.
The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.
Why do you think that adding millions of barrels of oil to the capacity of refineries will only result in 50 jobs. What is laughable is that you accept at face value the assertions of idiots
If we "adding millions barrels" from Canada wouldn't we subtract millions from somewhere else? It not like we're going to use all those additional barrels here and oil is shipped as CRUDE not refined gas/fuel.
We refine the oil. That is our advantage. How much oil do the retarded mullahs in Iran refine?Quote:
And I will trust the sources cited here over your objections and no sources.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jul/31/barack-obama/obama-says-keystone-xl-would-mean-maybe-2000-jobs/
Quote:
Our ruling
Obama said the Keystone XL pipeline might produce about 2,000 jobs during construction, based on the most reliable estimates. The White House provided no supporting evidence and the administration’s own State Department predicted that while the pipeline would produce few permanent jobs, the construction process itself would create nearly twice as many jobs as the president said.
We rate the statement False.
Even desperate Obama suck ups say he is a lying cocksucker.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19146088 - 11/16/13 04:46 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
What argument?
This is absolutely laughable. Your argument, zappa
Quote:
zappaisgod said: I do not cite myself as an authority. Now why do you think that adding millions of barrels a day to refinery production won't add any jobs.
You see that? You see where you claimed that "millions of barrels a day" would be added if we built Keystone XL?
Yeah, that's fucking wrong.
Quote:
Feel free to try rephrase that post to make it coherent so I can figure out what the fuck you are talking about.
you (zappisgod) are assuming (believing something without proof) that current import levels (the amount of oil that comes into the country) would stay steady (would not change), and that the extra oil (coming from the Keystone XL pipeline) would be added on top of those levels (the amount we currently import), instead of replacing decreasing imports (i.e. if we get more North American oil, we won't be importing as much from other countries).
I'm still not quite sure why this is so hard to understand. Although it may have been worded a little funny, it was easily comprehendible. Why you choose to start playing these little games is beyond me, but, like I said, I don't find much of what you say coherent to begin with, so it follows right in line.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19146211 - 11/16/13 05:19 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mush4Brains said:
Quote:
What argument?
This is absolutely laughable. Your argument, zappa
I make a lot of arguments. Which specific one are you talking about here?Quote:
Quote:
zappaisgod said: I do not cite myself as an authority. Now why do you think that adding millions of barrels a day to refinery production won't add any jobs.
You see that? You see where you claimed that "millions of barrels a day" would be added if we built Keystone XL?
Yeah, that's fucking wrong.
ORLY?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline
Quote:
The Keystone XL Pipeline Project (Phase IV) revised proposal in 2012 consists of a new 36-inch pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta, through Montana and South Dakota to Steele City, Nebraska, to "transport of up to 830,000 barrels per day (132,000 m3/d) of crude oil from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada, and from the Williston Basin (Bakken) region in Montana and North Dakota, primarily to refineries in the Gulf Coast area.
That's only phase IVQuote:
Quote:
Feel free to try rephrase that post to make it coherent so I can figure out what the fuck you are talking about.
you (zappisgod) are assuming (believing something without proof) that current import levels (the amount of oil that comes into the country) would stay steady (would not change),
I made no such assumptionQuote:
and that the extra oil (coming from the Keystone XL pipeline) would be added on top of those levels (the amount we currently import),
I made no such assumptionQuote:
instead of replacing decreasing imports (i.e. if we get more North American oil, we won't be importing as much from other countries).
Obvioulsy if we have domestic production to meet our needs we will import less energy. Are you well?Quote:
I'm still not quite sure why this is so hard to understand. Although it may have been worded a little funny, it was easily comprehendible. Why you choose to start playing these little games is beyond me, but, like I said, I don't find much of what you say coherent to begin with, so it follows right in line.
It was a pack of lies wrapped around an insane premise.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19146222 - 11/16/13 05:22 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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You claim that millions of barrels per day would come from Keystone XL. That is wrong. It can't even handle a million barrels per day.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19146231 - 11/16/13 05:25 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Just Phase IV is set to handle 830.000 barrels a day.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19146254 - 11/16/13 05:32 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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http://keystone-xl.com/about/the-project/
The official site, put up by TransCanada:
Quote:
The pipeline will have capacity to transport 830,000 barrels of oil per day to Gulf Coast and Midwest refineries, reducing American dependence on oil from Venezuela and the Middle East by up to 40 per cent.
So, is TransCanada wrong on their own website?
I guess I'm also not quite understanding what your point of all of this is. Phase 4 is the portion that brings the oil from Canada and ND/Montana south. Which on the XL portion of the Keystone system, can only transport 830,000 barrels per day.
Just admit you were wrong on that part, and we can move forward.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19146272 - 11/16/13 05:37 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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XL is only one part of it. Pay attention.
Quote:
The Keystone Pipeline system consists of the operational Phase 1 and Phase II and two separate proposed pipeline expansion segments Phases III, the Gulf Coast Pipeline Project, and Phase IV, Keystone XL.
Now does that seem like it means only 50 jobs to you? Politifact says you, Obama and that previous idiot with the 50 jobs estimate are full of shit.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19146290 - 11/16/13 05:42 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Keystone XL is what we have been talking about this whole time. Once you realized it wasn't going to transport your "millions of barrels per day" you changed your position. The Gulf Coast Pipeline Project will be moving the shale oil to the gulf, even if the numbers on the two projects were cumulative (which they aren't), we still wouldn't reach your "millions" mark that you claim building Keystone XL will transport.
Also, your Politifact piece only calls Obama's words on the construction portion false.
If you would read, you would find:
Quote:
It also confirmed that there would be few long-term jobs, something on the order of 35.
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zappaisgod
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19146317 - 11/16/13 05:49 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mush4Brains said: Keystone XL is what we have been talking about this whole time.
Quote meQuote:
Once you realized it wasn't going to transport your "millions of barrels per day" you changed your position.
I changed nothingQuote:
The Gulf Coast Pipeline Project will be moving the shale oil to the gulf, even if the numbers on the two projects were cumulative (which they aren't), we still wouldn't reach your "millions" mark that you claim building Keystone XL will transport.
ORLY? Prove itQuote:
Also, your Politifact piece only calls Obama's words on the construction portion false.
Yes I know. Do you think a millions of barrels of oil refine themselves?Quote:
If you would read, you would find:
Quote:
It also confirmed that there would be few long-term jobs, something on the order of 35.
I find it quite unlikely that a thousand plus mile pipeline will only reguire 35 people to maintain it.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
#19146350 - 11/16/13 05:57 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Quote me
The fifty jobs claim was in reference to the Keystone XL. This is what we have been talking about the whole time. Just because you don't specifically use the term Keystone XL, you reply to people who had, and you never mentioned anything about "Phase 3" until your millions of barrels per day bullshit got debunked.
Quote:
ORLY? Prove it
Prove what? The numbers are all on the official Keystone XL site. I think you can do basic math, no? I mean, there is a calculator on your computer if you can't.
Quote:
Yes I know. Do you think a millions of barrels of oil refine themselves
Once again, you are assuming that we will continue to import unrefined oil at the same levels.
Quote:
I find it quite unlikely that a thousand plus mile pipeline will only reguire 35 people to maintain it.
Your source, not mine.
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starfire_xes
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains] 1
#19147439 - 11/16/13 09:27 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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any fool knows that there will be more than 50 jobs because the government would hire thousands of beaurocrats to do pipeline paperwork.
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Mush4Brains
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
#19147460 - 11/16/13 09:37 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Proof?
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starfire_xes
I Am 'They'



Registered: 10/24/09
Posts: 21,590
Loc: Dallas with all the assho...
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19147469 - 11/16/13 09:41 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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I spoke in jest. But then again, when did you ever see this government not wanting to expand itself? Anyway whats the big deal about Keystone? There is already a pipeline built from the fourcorners area to refineries down in west texas, and the Permian Basin in West texas/Eastern New Mexico makes Bakken look like a few drops of oil on someones driveway.
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Mush4Brains
LOOL HACKED!!!

Registered: 07/31/13
Posts: 4,419
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
#19147477 - 11/16/13 09:44 PM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Well the original issue was that it went right over a major aquifer.
Now, people are realizing that oil spills are going unreported and are wondering "Is my land next?"
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sweeper54



Registered: 11/07/12
Posts: 2,865
Last seen: 8 days, 12 hours
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
#19148599 - 11/17/13 06:45 AM (10 years, 2 months ago) |
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Some pipeline advocates are citing a recent IHS-CERA study that argues tar sand oil produces only 6 percent more carbon than conventional crude. This is an overly optimistic estimate from an industry-affiliated group that is not consistent with other findings. Tar sands must be mined with giant trucks and then heat is applied in order to separate the bitumen from the sands, thereby increasing the carbon footprint. A more reasonable estimate of 20-25% is found in a detailed analysis by Stanford Assistant Professor Adam Brandt. Moreover, a recent report notes that the overall impact may even be significantly worse than previously thought because tar sand companies are replacing boggy peat lands that absorb large amounts of carbon with dry forests when they are finished mining. We do not have determinative data yet to calculate the exact difference between tar sand oil and conventional crude, but there is little doubt that it is much higher than 6 percent.
And from Zaps NYT comes this little tidbit. What does Canada have to hide? Sounds like they are learning their lessons from the US.
Silencing Scientists
Over the last few years, the government of Canada — led by Stephen Harper — has made it harder and harder for publicly financed scientists to communicate with the public and with other scientists.
It began badly enough in 2008 when scientists working for Environment Canada, the federal agency, were told to refer all queries to departmental communications officers. Now the government is doing all it can to monitor and restrict the flow of scientific information, especially concerning research into climate change, fisheries and anything to do with the Alberta tar sands — source of the diluted bitumen that would flow through the controversial Keystone XL pipeline. Journalists find themselves unable to reach government scientists; the scientists themselves have organized public protests.
There was trouble of this kind here in the George W. Bush years, when scientists were asked to toe the party line on climate policy and endangered species. But nothing came close to what is being done in Canada.
Science is the gathering of hypotheses and the endless testing of them. It involves checking and double-checking, self-criticism and a willingness to overturn even fundamental assumptions if they prove to be wrong. But none of this can happen without open communication among scientists. This is more than an attack on academic freedom. It is an attempt to guarantee public ignorance.
It is also designed to make sure that nothing gets in the way of the northern resource rush — the feverish effort to mine the earth and the ocean with little regard for environmental consequences. The Harper policy seems designed to make sure that the tar sands project proceeds quietly, with no surprises, no bad news, no alarms from government scientists. To all the other kinds of pollution the tar sands will yield, we must now add another: the degradation of vital streams of research and information.
Edited by sweeper54 (11/17/13 06:46 AM)
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