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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar]
    #19141681 - 11/15/13 04:56 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Reply to fail.


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Offlinesweeper54
Male User Gallery


Registered: 11/07/12
Posts: 2,865
Last seen: 8 days, 15 hours
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
    #19141706 - 11/15/13 05:04 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

This

Zap wrote and won't defend

Quote:

The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.




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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54] * 1
    #19141753 - 11/15/13 05:12 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sweeper54 said:
This

Zap wrote and won't defend

Quote:

The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.







Are they not jobs?  Do they cost the taxpayer anything?  Will cheaper energy, much of it domestically produced through fracking, create jobs for Americans?  What about the jobs gained through fracking? 
http://www.frackingjobs.co/north-dakota-fracking-jobs/

If we don't send money for energy to the Saudis and instead keep it here will it not foster domestic investment? 

Even the socialist peckerhead cited above said there was 4,000 person years of work from Keystone.  Is that not significant?  That's 8 million hours for skilled workers earning real money and paying real taxes.


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Offlinesytar
Radiant
Male User Gallery


Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 381
Last seen: 9 years, 5 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
    #19142342 - 11/15/13 07:33 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Do you realize that if you issue a 5 year bond at 1% today, you have to roll it over in 5 years, and you might have to issue the bond at a much higher rate, maybe 5%.

====

That's not how treasury bonds work. Whatever interest rate you issue the bond at is the interest rate you pay. Not sure what the argument here is. If a bank offers you money to take a loan, you take the loan unless you're a first class moron. This is just mathematics, not a political opinion. Unless you for some reason are gunning for us to be in worse financial shape?

If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.


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I post from my phone. Excuse the typos and autocorrects.


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Offlinestarfire_xes
I Am 'They'
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Registered: 10/24/09
Posts: 21,590
Loc: Dallas with all the assho...
Last seen: 7 months, 1 day
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar] * 2
    #19142485 - 11/15/13 08:03 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sytar said:

If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.





The working model of that theory is Japan in the 90's.  It worked great for them didn't it?  You also realize no one is buying US Bonds?  Most bonds are just sold by the federal reserve and the Federal government sucking each others dicks and running the printing presses. 

The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'.  It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated. 

They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.


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Offlineqman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 2 days, 38 minutes
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sytar] * 2
    #19142504 - 11/15/13 08:06 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sytar said:
Do you realize that if you issue a 5 year bond at 1% today, you have to roll it over in 5 years, and you might have to issue the bond at a much higher rate, maybe 5%.

====

That's not how treasury bonds work. Whatever interest rate you issue the bond at is the interest rate you pay. Not sure what the argument here is. If a bank offers you money to take a loan, you take the loan unless you're a first class moron. This is just mathematics, not a political opinion. Unless you for some reason are gunning for us to be in worse financial shape?

If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.




Dude, the bonds get rolled over, that is why we have 1,2,5,7,10, and 30 year bonds. The issuer gets locked for that period of time, after that time ends you need to roll it over, understand?  Why do you think the Fed rolled so much debt into 10 and 30 year paper the last 4 years?  To lock in a low interest rate for 10 and 30 years!!!

"Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment"

In a perfect world yes, but it's never going to happen.

"That's the point we stop borrowing" 

Says who?, your economic text book, let me clue you in, it's not going to happen, the only way we stop borrowing is when we have a currency crisis, I'm sure that's not in the text book.

"If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check"

Then why does it feel I'm doing all the informing?  Your lack of understanding has already be shown several times, get over yourself.

Do you even study monetary policy?  Or is this from one of your classes?


Edited by qman (11/15/13 08:08 PM)


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Offlineqman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 2 days, 38 minutes
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes] * 1
    #19142530 - 11/15/13 08:09 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

starfire_xes said:
Quote:

sytar said:

If real interest rates stop being negative, you change your behavior to reflect that. The more we borrow, the more upward pressure we put on interest rates. Interest rates should start being positive around the point that we are able to fuel full employment. That's be the point at which we stop borrowing. If I have to explain this any further I'm going to need a check.





The working model of that theory is Japan in the 90's.  It worked great for them didn't it?  You also realize no one is buying US Bonds?  Most bonds are just sold by the federal reserve and the Federal government sucking each others dicks and running the printing presses. 

The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'.  It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated. 

They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.





He doesn't get it Star, we are wasting our time with this one.


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Offlinesweeper54
Male User Gallery


Registered: 11/07/12
Posts: 2,865
Last seen: 8 days, 15 hours
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
    #19142703 - 11/15/13 08:44 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Quote:

sweeper54 said:
This

Zap wrote and won't defend

Quote:

The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.







Are they not jobs?  Do they cost the taxpayer anything?  Will cheaper energy, much of it domestically produced through fracking, create jobs for Americans?  What about the jobs gained through fracking? 
http://www.frackingjobs.co/north-dakota-fracking-jobs/

If we don't send money for energy to the Saudis and instead keep it here will it not foster domestic investment? 

Even the socialist peckerhead cited above said there was 4,000 person years of work from Keystone.  Is that not significant?  That's 8 million hours for skilled workers earning real money and paying real taxes.





And how much of the CANADIAN Oil is going to stay in the US. If it was staying HERE they won't need to build a line to the GULF now would they?


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Offlinestarfire_xes
I Am 'They'
Male User Gallery


Registered: 10/24/09
Posts: 21,590
Loc: Dallas with all the assho...
Last seen: 7 months, 1 day
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54]
    #19142759 - 11/15/13 08:53 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

One of the reasons oil is sent out of the US is because there is not enough refining capacity in the US to produce gasoline, diesel, and other fractals from oil at the rate it is coming out of the ground.

That is, a good part of the high cost of gasoline and diesel is due to lack of refining capacity.  that is why drops in the price of a barrel of oil don't necessarily reflect into the price of gasoline.

If there is one area where Obama might have understanding, it is that he on a certain level does support fracking and sees the economic benefits from it.  unfortunately, political ideology requires him to kiss the butt of the greens.


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OfflineMush4Brains
LOOL HACKED!!!

Registered: 07/31/13
Posts: 4,419
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19142915 - 11/15/13 09:20 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

starfire_xes said:
One of the reasons oil is sent out of the US is because there is not enough refining capacity in the US to produce gasoline, diesel, and other fractals from oil at the rate it is coming out of the ground.






That is absolute bullshit.  The United States is the #1 exporter in refined oil in the world.  We easily could get enough oil from Canada and the United States to supply the demand of North America, but since the oil conglomerate can make more money exporting their product, they do.


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OfflineRufarian
Stranger
Registered: 10/20/13
Posts: 12
Last seen: 10 years, 14 days
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
    #19142923 - 11/15/13 09:21 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.




No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.

The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.


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OfflineMush4Brains
LOOL HACKED!!!

Registered: 07/31/13
Posts: 4,419
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian]
    #19142967 - 11/15/13 09:31 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Rufarian said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.




No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.

The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.





It would make sense... if they had a clue how shit works... but they don't.  Too interested in corporate profits and making fun of the poor to actually educate yourself.


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OfflineRufarian
Stranger
Registered: 10/20/13
Posts: 12
Last seen: 10 years, 14 days
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19142986 - 11/15/13 09:34 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

starfire_xes said:
  You also realize no one is buying US Bonds? 

The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'.  It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated. 

They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.




No one is buying US bonds... really? Did you really just say that? If that were the case rates on the 10 year wouldn't be at 27.09 basis points as of Friday's close. At the end of the day the 85 billion(nearly half of that is in MBS, not bonds) in FED balance sheet expansion isn't covering our monthly deficit. Not even close.

You are wrong to say no one is buying our debt. Everyone is buying our debt. Hence the low yields.

Also, equities are pumped because they are the only game in town. Rates on bonds are low, due to high demand, not low. We are not Greece. The sky is not falling. The only thing holding this country back is right wing fear, hatred, and ignorance.


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Offlinestarfire_xes
I Am 'They'
Male User Gallery


Registered: 10/24/09
Posts: 21,590
Loc: Dallas with all the assho...
Last seen: 7 months, 1 day
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Mush4Brains]
    #19143011 - 11/15/13 09:39 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Mush4Brains said:
Quote:

starfire_xes said:
One of the reasons oil is sent out of the US is because there is not enough refining capacity in the US to produce gasoline, diesel, and other fractals from oil at the rate it is coming out of the ground.






That is absolute bullshit.  The United States is the #1 exporter in refined oil in the world.  We easily could get enough oil from Canada and the United States to supply the demand of North America, but since the oil conglomerate can make more money exporting their product, they do.





My only source on this is my brother, who is a chemical engineer and the regional manager of refinery operations for a very large petroleum company in the southeast US.  Now, at one level of consideration, the high price of oil internationally plays into the equation (supply and demand)

There is also the concern that certain gasoline blends required in the US--specifically in california--have inadequate capacity for their production, and that is reflected in the price.


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OfflineMush4Brains
LOOL HACKED!!!

Registered: 07/31/13
Posts: 4,419
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: starfire_xes]
    #19143039 - 11/15/13 09:47 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

starfire_xes said:
My only source on this is my brother, who is a chemical engineer and the regional manager of refinery operations for a very large petroleum company in the southeast US.  Now, at one level of consideration, the high price of oil internationally plays into the equation (supply and demand)

There is also the concern that certain gasoline blends required in the US--specifically in california--have inadequate capacity for their production, and that is reflected in the price.





Your brother is pretty much spot on.  The gas/oil market is global, if the US/Canada steps in and starts producing more at current levels (fracking wouldn't be economically viable at $50/barrel, about $70 is break even price) we might be able to curb the inevitable rise in gas/oil prices, but it won't ever lower it.


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Offlineqman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 2 days, 38 minutes
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian]
    #19143093 - 11/15/13 10:00 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Rufarian said:
Quote:

starfire_xes said:
  You also realize no one is buying US Bonds? 

The fact that the debt is being monetized is the reason the stock market is smokin'.  It's better to own 'stuff' (equities) when the money supply is being inflated. 

They stop printing money, you'll see the mother of all crashes.




No one is buying US bonds... really? Did you really just say that? If that were the case rates on the 10 year wouldn't be at 27.09 basis points as of Friday's close. At the end of the day the 85 billion(nearly half of that is in MBS, not bonds) in FED balance sheet expansion isn't covering our monthly deficit. Not even close.

You are wrong to say no one is buying our debt. Everyone is buying our debt. Hence the low yields.

Also, equities are pumped because they are the only game in town. Rates on bonds are low, due to high demand, not low. We are not Greece. The sky is not falling. The only thing holding this country back is right wing fear, hatred, and ignorance.




"Everyone is buying our debt"

This is not true, foreigners have basically stop buying the bonds, but they still hold what they own.

You are correct, the $45 billion in monthly Fed buying of Treasuries does not cover the issuance, so who is buying the remaining bonds?

When the Fed buys the $40 billion in MBS off of the banks, it enables the banks to then buy the remaining T-bonds, so basically it's nothing more than a switch.

In fact, the banks buy the T-bonds on leverage, have you ever wondered how the banks are turning out strong profits the last 3 years without making loans?  They are leveraged up on US T-bonds, talk about a dangerous situation.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-14/only-two-charts-matter-fed

"The Fed is now monetizing a record 70% of all net US 10 year equivalent bond issuance"


Edited by qman (11/15/13 10:09 PM)


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Offlinesweeper54
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Registered: 11/07/12
Posts: 2,865
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Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: qman]
    #19144291 - 11/16/13 06:21 AM (10 years, 2 months ago)

This is how much oil is imported/exported



If I did the math correctly (before morning coffee) the US imports 418.2 million tonnes, but exports 111.9


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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: sweeper54]
    #19145243 - 11/16/13 01:05 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sweeper54 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Quote:

sweeper54 said:
This

Zap wrote and won't defend

Quote:

The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.







Are they not jobs?  Do they cost the taxpayer anything?  Will cheaper energy, much of it domestically produced through fracking, create jobs for Americans?  What about the jobs gained through fracking? 
http://www.frackingjobs.co/north-dakota-fracking-jobs/

If we don't send money for energy to the Saudis and instead keep it here will it not foster domestic investment? 

Even the socialist peckerhead cited above said there was 4,000 person years of work from Keystone.  Is that not significant?  That's 8 million hours for skilled workers earning real money and paying real taxes.





And how much of the CANADIAN Oil is going to stay in the US. If it was staying HERE they won't need to build a line to the GULF now would they?



Where do you think the refineries are?


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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: Rufarian]
    #19145251 - 11/16/13 01:08 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Rufarian said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
The Keystone Pipeline and fracking would go a long way toward helping and they won't cost one single taxpayer dime.




No it wouldn't. 50 full time jobs is laughable.

The American Jobs Act proposed by President Obama would have created over 2 million jobs, and added 2% to gdp all while fixing up our infrastructure. At a time when we can borrow money for next to nothing, and millions are still unemployed it just makes sense.




Why do you think that adding millions of barrels of oil to the capacity of refineries will only result in 50 jobs.  What is laughable is that you accept at face value the assertions of idiots


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OfflineMush4Brains
LOOL HACKED!!!

Registered: 07/31/13
Posts: 4,419
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: How Republicans are destroying the recovery in one graph [Re: zappaisgod]
    #19145270 - 11/16/13 01:14 PM (10 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

What is laughable is that you accept at face value the assertions of idiots




Oh, the irony.


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