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Invisiblethescientist
Registered: 03/09/02
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Loc: Dade County
Precious metals: Where are we now?
    #19134621 - 11/14/13 03:08 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

It is interesting to peruse the previous threads on Gold and silver.

Reading of the excitement, hope (greed?), anticipation, and speculation.

But, where are we now?

Gold is down about $400 in the last year, and silver is down about $10 during the last year.

> -20% for gold and > -30% for silver

Those are crushing declines and speak to the volatility of these markets.

The USD is gaining against the EUR, QE is going strong.

Without some significant event it appears as though both metals will continue to decline for the foreseeable future.

How much further can they go?

Sub-$1000 gold?

Sub- $15 silver?


We know, or at least I hope we know as a group what the real global financial system situation is...precarious.


What specific events may be on the mid-term horizon (3-9mos) that may impact both the USD and fiscal policy? What about extra-national impacts/influences?

What say you?


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Offlineistandalone
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: thescientist]
    #19134744 - 11/14/13 04:17 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

with the finite amount of gold and silver in the earth (unless extraterrestrial mining is ever made to happen) the price will go up again.


--------------------
Now he's Johnny Hammersticks hammerin' away like he's friggin' Tommy Noble


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InvisibleMe_Roy
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: istandalone]
    #19134899 - 11/14/13 06:30 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

istandalone said:
with the finite amount of gold and silver in the earth (unless extraterrestrial mining is ever made to happen) the price will go up again.




...as long as Libertarians and preppers continue to believe that it must.


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Offlinepsyconaught
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Registered: 11/04/10
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: Me_Roy]
    #19136256 - 11/14/13 01:51 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Me_Roy said:
Quote:

istandalone said:
with the finite amount of gold and silver in the earth (unless extraterrestrial mining is ever made to happen) the price will go up again.




...as long as Libertarians and preppers continue to believe that it must.



has nothing to do with libertarians or preppers. Its simple economics of supply and demand. There is a finite amount of gold/silver on the planet.


--------------------
Think for yourself, question authority


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InvisibleMe_Roy
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: psyconaught]
    #19136324 - 11/14/13 02:10 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

...
Quote:

psyconaught said:
Quote:

Me_Roy said:
Quote:

istandalone said:
with the finite amount of gold and silver in the earth (unless extraterrestrial mining is ever made to happen) the price will go up again.




...as long as Libertarians and preppers continue to believe that it must.



has nothing to do with libertarians or preppers. Its simple economics of supply and demand. There is a finite amount of gold/silver on the planet.




...and speculation drives up the price. Many of these speculators are people who distrust the monetary system. Take away that speculation and the bubble will deflate, as has been the case as of late.


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Offlinepsyconaught
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: Me_Roy]
    #19136350 - 11/14/13 02:21 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

that may be true if gold and silver ONLY served the purpose of currency reserve. There are many industrial uses for gold and silver. So as those reserves get used up the price will go up for the remaining supply.


--------------------
Think for yourself, question authority


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OfflinePDU
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: psyconaught]
    #19136374 - 11/14/13 02:29 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

It's safe to assume that people who distrust the monetary system are a small percentage of the PM market.

No?


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Offlinepsyconaught
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: PDU]
    #19136389 - 11/14/13 02:32 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

PDU said:
It's safe to assume that people who distrust the monetary system are a small percentage of the PM market.

No?



i have no idea what the percentage is. Though more and more people are loosing trust in the dollar and looking for ways to protect their assets. Precious metals being one of them. I would guess most of the PM market is industrial uses and investment.


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Think for yourself, question authority


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OfflinePDU
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: psyconaught]
    #19136704 - 11/14/13 03:33 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Precious metals, especially gold are hoarded in many cultures around the world, and I am sure societies like India far outweigh those who buy because of distrust in the monetary system.

Industrial likely makes up the largest sector.

I agree with the sentiment here, that Me_Roy is being unfairly cynical.


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OfflinePDU
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: PDU]
    #19136739 - 11/14/13 03:39 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Regarding silver:

Quote:

ata from 2010 reveals that a majority of silver is being used for industry (487.4 million ounces), jewelry (167.0 million ounces), and investments (101.3 million ounces).[29]

The expansion of the middle classes in emerging economies aspiring to Western lifestyles and products may also contribute to a long-term rise in industrial and jewelry usage.[30]




From wikipedia


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InvisibleMe_Roy
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: PDU]
    #19137049 - 11/14/13 04:47 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

That's more than an eighth going towards speculation.

That strikes me as quite a bit.

But I don't have the math chops to know how much that keeps the price afloat. I imagine that it's a complicated calculation.


Edited by Me_Roy (11/14/13 04:49 PM)


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: Me_Roy] * 1
    #19137335 - 11/14/13 05:46 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

I note I haven't seen the gold bug freaks posting much lately


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Offlinepsyconaught
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #19137336 - 11/14/13 05:46 PM (10 years, 3 months ago)

gold bug freaks?


--------------------
Think for yourself, question authority


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Invisiblethescientist
Registered: 03/09/02
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Loc: Dade County
Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: psyconaught]
    #19139592 - 11/15/13 02:54 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

...crickets...


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InvisibleMe_Roy
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: psyconaught]
    #19139934 - 11/15/13 07:53 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

psyconaught said:
gold bug freaks?




I don't understand what you mean here.


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OfflinePDU
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: Me_Roy]
    #19139956 - 11/15/13 08:04 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Nothing to say. Waiting game.


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Offlineqman
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Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: Me_Roy]
    #19139970 - 11/15/13 08:08 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Me_Roy said:
...
Quote:

psyconaught said:
Quote:

Me_Roy said:
Quote:

istandalone said:
with the finite amount of gold and silver in the earth (unless extraterrestrial mining is ever made to happen) the price will go up again.




...as long as Libertarians and preppers continue to believe that it must.



has nothing to do with libertarians or preppers. Its simple economics of supply and demand. There is a finite amount of gold/silver on the planet.




...and speculation drives up the price. Many of these speculators are people who distrust the monetary system. Take away that speculation and the bubble will deflate, as has been the case as of late.




"speculation drives up the price."

What you call speculation, PM investors call a investment. PM's are a hedge against currency devaluation/inflation, there is nothing speculative about it, unless you think buying shares of Apple a speculative investment as well.

Why are gold and silver down for over 2 years now?

Despite the massive global QE programs and zero percent interest rates, there is no velocity of money, thus no fear of high inflation. Could that change as the printing continues? For sure, central banks are playing a very dangerous game of monetary policy, where this ends up is anyone guess.


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InvisibleMe_Roy
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: qman]
    #19140267 - 11/15/13 09:54 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:

"speculation drives up the price."

What you call speculation, PM investors call a investment. PM's are a hedge against currency devaluation/inflation, there is nothing speculative about it, unless you think buying shares of Apple a speculative investment as well.





As I understand it, if you buy Apple stock with an eye to what they'll be producing, you're investing. For example, I determine that Apple has a viable product line and I know they'll bring out something new and good, so I buy their stock giving them money to help them make that thing.

Were I to purchase Apple stock to watch its value rise in the short term, I'd be speculating.

Of course the stock market alienates investment, driving it all in the direction of speculation. Venture capitalism is the best example of investment I can think of: it's a hope (and risk) pinned to an output. Buying gold so you can sell it later is pure speculation no matter how long-term a game one's playing. You're not investing in a gold mine, you're not giving gold money so that it can make more of itself, but instead you're betting that its price will rise, betting on reduced production vis-a-vis increasing demand or, alternatively, hedging inflation.

Here's Warren Buffet articulating the distinction as he sees it while explaining his aversion to gold.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/buffett-mocking-gold-sidesteps-slump-as-he-bets-on-stocks.html


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Offlineqman
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: Me_Roy]
    #19140324 - 11/15/13 10:11 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Me_Roy said:
Quote:

qman said:

"speculation drives up the price."

What you call speculation, PM investors call a investment. PM's are a hedge against currency devaluation/inflation, there is nothing speculative about it, unless you think buying shares of Apple a speculative investment as well.





As I understand it, if you buy Apple stock with an eye to what they'll be producing, you're investing. For example, I determine that Apple has a viable product line and I know they'll bring out something new and good, so I buy their stock giving them money to help them make that thing.

Were I to purchase Apple stock to watch its value rise in the short term, I'd be speculating.

Of course the stock market alienates investment, driving it all in the direction of speculation. Venture capitalism is the best example of investment I can think of: it's a hope (and risk) pinned to an output. Buying gold so you can sell it later is pure speculation no matter how long-term a game one's playing. You're not investing in a gold mine, you're not giving gold money so that it can make more of itself, but instead you're betting that its price will rise, betting on reduced production vis-a-vis increasing demand or, alternatively, hedging inflation.

Here's Warren Buffet articulating the distinction as he sees it while explaining his aversion to gold.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/buffett-mocking-gold-sidesteps-slump-as-he-bets-on-stocks.html





Buffett bashes gold all the time, nothing new there.

China has been buying as much gold as they can the last 5-10 years, why?  To diversify their reserves, it's not to speculate for higher prices, it's to hedge against the trillions of dollar and euros they hold.

Since China knows the dollar and euro are only going to get devalued in the years ahead, they are protecting their holdings by buying gold, owning shares of companies does not provide that hedge.


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Invisiblebryguy27007
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Re: Precious metals: Where are we now? [Re: qman]
    #19140492 - 11/15/13 10:56 AM (10 years, 3 months ago)

I'm holding silver. Just bought another 5 oz, my first purchase in a while. I'd probably be buying more if I had any cash. I think it's going to dip a little bit yet, maybe hang around ~18 for a while and then back up to 30's-40's. Just my opinion, not based on anything.


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