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OrgoneConclusion
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Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis
#19047453 - 10/28/13 05:37 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Not sure why other than poor education.
The NH does NOT require certainty (a common fallacy presented numerous times in the recent thread) nor does it mean it is true. It means that to be refuted, evidence MUST be presented to counter. It is THE default position.
Let's keep this simple. The Null Hypothesis can be used to mean there is nothing special going on. We can apply this to Life-after-death to link to a recent thread.
The NH would state there is no life after death.
Logic dictates that we accept this as fact until such time that the NH is refuted. Simple!
What does NOT come into play is the amount of emotion was has for or against a position nor the number of people who rail against the NH.
Only evidence is the tool that can crack the wall. Nothing else. Not books nor cool stories nor wishful thinking.
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Sleepwalker
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
#19047609 - 10/28/13 05:57 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Nah, I don't believe you.
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johnm214


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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion] 2
#19047732 - 10/28/13 06:14 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
OrgoneConclusion said:
Logic dictates that we accept this as fact until such time that the NH is refuted. Simple!
Its more accurate to say that we do not reject the null hypothesis until we can exclude it with sufficient confidence.
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Icelander
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion] 1
#19047758 - 10/28/13 06:19 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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I never even saw NH mentioned in another thread here lately.
The NH does NOT require certainty
I think you started the OP something like this. It won't be like anything at all.
That's a definitive statement of certainty in my book.
-------------------- "Don't believe everything you think". -Anom. " All that lives was born to die"-Anom. With much wisdom comes much sorrow, The more knowledge, the more grief. Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC
Edited by Icelander (10/28/13 06:24 PM)
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NetDiver
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion] 2
#19048169 - 10/28/13 07:20 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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I agree that there is no life after death (well, I mean perception, of course by definition life is the opposite of death ), however, I can't help but wonder what it means for there to be no life after death.
This is because I've come to the conclusion that there is no reality outside of perception. Perception is reality, this is simply self-evident based on the fact that it is absolutely, fundamentally impossible to gain any evidence of a non-perceptual world. Whether or not there is anything beyond perception makes no difference to us, as even if there is we will never experience it (just like it's possible that there's a God who doesn't intervene at all in human affairs, but if so, said God's existence is totally irrelevant), so for all intents and purposes of discussions we can discount its existence.
Now, since the findings of science have allowed us to predict the behavior of things within perception with increasing accuracy, it's clearly a logical method for answering questions, which is why I argue that scientific materialism, which helps us solve problems, is completely compatible with (and even complimentary to) subjective idealism, which is necessarily true. I believe that an individual is their brain and body by definition, but I also believe that perception is not unique to an individual, since I am not a solipsist. This opens up a whole new can of worms on the question of life after death, even for a scientific physicalist such as myself, because although my perception ends with death, my perception is not the only perception there is, which leads to the cryptic answer "perception will continue after an individual's death, but it won't be that individual's perception" which is up to interpretation.
Hell, it's likely there will be people born one day that have my genetics, which contain elements of my brain structure and personality. That's a very real, physical connection to what I currently think of as "my" mind; they of course will not remember my life experiences but are fundamentally "me" in some important aspects. If memory is all that determines a self, do you die when you get amnesia? If you don't die when you lose your memories, then how are your descendants, who have very similar neurological structures, personalities, etc, different from a version of you which has undergone major changes?
All I'm saying is that, like many philosophical questions, it's not stupid just because it can be brushed off with an easy, thoughtless answer. Saying "after your brain rots you will cease to exist" is just a truism if you take the self to mean the brain. The really interesting versions of the question come when you consider the meaning of self.
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XUL
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: NetDiver]
#19049287 - 10/28/13 10:13 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Only evidence is the tool that can crack the wall. Nothing else. Not books nor cool stories nor wishful thinking.
I identify with you when you proclaim that evidence is the tool that can crack the well. Yes, scientific evidence - facts, and cause and effect - is truth.
Conversely cool books are a product of science! Without books we would not be able to express to each other the complicated evidence published by researchers.
Stories?
Stories are sociocultural ideas that we express to one another in order to create a general understanding. Stories like Main Street influence millions of people.
I did not care for your short explanation of the Null Hypothesis. If anything it must be studied by a book before I could ever conclude an opinion about it.
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Grapefruit
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
#19052008 - 10/29/13 01:37 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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You stated yourself that the default position may not be true. So why do you always act like you're certain of it?
All this "default position" means is that it is our best available objective guess because we have no evidence for other options. There is still nothing by which we can tell the likelihood of it being true so we cannot even tell how good that guess is. Never mind the likelihood of that guess being reality.
-------------------- Little left in the way of energy; or the way of love, yet happy to entertain myself playing mental games with the rest of you freaks until the rivers run backwards. "Chat your fraff Chat your fraff Just chat your fraff Chat your fraff"
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OrgoneConclusion
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: Grapefruit]
#19052041 - 10/29/13 01:44 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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*sigh* The best we can ever do is approach certainty. As new data arrives, the hypothesis/theory may change to accommodate. Science is not inflexible dogma.
Quote:
All this "default position" means is that it is our best available objective guess because we have no evidence for other options.
All?
You got it partially right- the second part. The Null Hypothesis is NOT a guess.
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Grapefruit
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
#19052159 - 10/29/13 02:16 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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conclude (something) without sufficient information to be sure of being correct.
It's a guess.
-------------------- Little left in the way of energy; or the way of love, yet happy to entertain myself playing mental games with the rest of you freaks until the rivers run backwards. "Chat your fraff Chat your fraff Just chat your fraff Chat your fraff"
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OrgoneConclusion
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: Grapefruit]
#19052242 - 10/29/13 02:41 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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No guessing is involved. You keep missing this.
Non-existence is assumed for some phenomenon/creature or whatever until such time as sufficient evidence is provided.
For example: The Null Hypothesis is that the Loch Ness monster does not exist. This is not a guess.
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Icelander
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
#19052619 - 10/29/13 04:03 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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It's an assumption.
-------------------- "Don't believe everything you think". -Anom. " All that lives was born to die"-Anom. With much wisdom comes much sorrow, The more knowledge, the more grief. Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC
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desert father
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
#19052870 - 10/29/13 04:48 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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yo
most of these posters are just kids.
yea maybe they are wrong.
but they are right in questioning EVERYTHING.
the more thorough one is, the better, of course assuming they will at one point settle with objective reasoning.
i know what you mean though, but still, if one chooses to practice this sort of deviance, shouldn't you be aware you have already "won".
it doesn't make any difference if you prove to a retard that he is retarded. he is retarded all the same.
ps. little drunk, pardon me being blunt, i am not thick.
-------------------- vi veri veniversum vivus vici What she said : "I smoke 'cos I'm hoping for an Early death AND I NEED TO CLING TO SOMETHING !"
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Kickle
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: Icelander]
#19053273 - 10/29/13 05:59 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Icelander said: It's an assumption. 
Well its supposed to stay limited to an experiment. Because in an experiment a very specific hypothesis is put forth as well as specific ways to verify the hypothesis. If the hypothesis is not shown then the null hypothesis has been shown. Its called null for a reason. Not because the inverse has been shown, or that nothing has been shown, but rather that what was expected and controlled for did not occur. The expected outcome was nullified.
Sometimes the reason why is clear in the data. Sometimes its very confusing to the experimenter. And sometimes its a matter of statistical significance not quite making the cutoff.
-------------------- Why shouldn't the truth be stranger than fiction? Fiction, after all, has to make sense. -- Mark Twain
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Icelander
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: Kickle]
#19053469 - 10/29/13 06:38 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yeah didn't see any experiments happening.
-------------------- "Don't believe everything you think". -Anom. " All that lives was born to die"-Anom. With much wisdom comes much sorrow, The more knowledge, the more grief. Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC
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Kickle
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: Icelander]
#19053836 - 10/29/13 07:34 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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-------------------- Why shouldn't the truth be stranger than fiction? Fiction, after all, has to make sense. -- Mark Twain
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Cactilove
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
#19054023 - 10/29/13 08:06 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Logic dictates that we accept this as fact until such time that the NH is refuted. Simple!
I think your logic is flawed, because of this...
Quote:
Its more accurate to say that we do not reject the null hypothesis until we can exclude it with sufficient confidence.
-------------------- Orgone Conclusion...Bringing OTD to PS&P since 2007.
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johnm214


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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: Kickle]
#19054922 - 10/29/13 11:10 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Kickle said:
Quote:
Icelander said: It's an assumption. 
Well its supposed to stay limited to an experiment. Because in an experiment a very specific hypothesis is put forth as well as specific ways to verify the hypothesis. If the hypothesis is not shown then the null hypothesis has been shown.
The null hypothesis has not been rejected if the experimental hypothesis has not been proven. The null is a positive claim which is never proven by the experiment.
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Kickle
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: johnm214]
#19055056 - 10/29/13 11:36 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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It isn't proven by the experiment, of course not. It is dependent upon an experiment taking place however. It is a part of the scientific method and I cannot understand any attempt to seperate it from the method itself. I fail to see the relevence of the null hypothesis without a tested hypothesis.
-------------------- Why shouldn't the truth be stranger than fiction? Fiction, after all, has to make sense. -- Mark Twain
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johnm214


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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: Kickle]
#19055112 - 10/29/13 11:44 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Kickle said: It isn't proven by the experiment, of course not. It is dependent upon an experiment taking place however. It is a part of the scientific method and cannot understand any attempt to seperate it from the method itself. I fail to see the relevence of the null hypothesis without a tested hypothesis.
Like saying that a contract is null and void but there isn't any contract around. Well yep, the invalidity is there, but...huh?
Well yeah, but I think that's cuz orgone overstated the reality in his posts. He claimed you presume the null rather than presume it cannot be excluded untill sufficient evidence shows otherwise.
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Kickle
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Re: Members here still struggle with the Null Hypothesis [Re: johnm214]
#19055156 - 10/29/13 11:50 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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-------------------- Why shouldn't the truth be stranger than fiction? Fiction, after all, has to make sense. -- Mark Twain
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