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jewunit
Brutal!


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 34,264
Loc: Ohio
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: gzuf]
#19022218 - 10/23/13 09:52 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Think of it like this:
You are given three doors to pick from, one has a winner and two are losers. Your odds are 1/3 that you will pick the correct option. When the host reveal a loser and you don't switch you've still gone with your 1/3 options and basically nullified him showing you a door; it becomes irrelevant and he could have revealed them in any order he wanted.
Switching will only lose when you picked the right door in the first place, which you only had 1/3 odds to do. Switching wins when you picked the wrong door in the first place, which you had 2/3 odds to do.
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dokunai
Cactus, Cannabis, Cubensis

Registered: 01/31/10
Posts: 1,878
Loc: Hyphal Heights, USA
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: hidenseek1]
#19022230 - 10/23/13 09:55 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
hidenseek1 said:
Quote:
gzuf said: I don't get how having the donkey in 3 changes the chances of winning? Isn't 1 or 2 just as likely no matter what?
your chances of winning go up as long as you didnt pick the right door in the first place, which is unlikely because thats a 1/3 chance
Right, it involves the host of the game show eliminating one of the choices you didn't make. Otherwise, without the second opportunity to change your choice after having one of your non-choices eliminated, it wouldn't make any difference. If one of the three choices was randomly eliminated, without regard to whether it was the prize winning choice or not, the probability of having initially selected the right choice would not be changed.
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bryguy27007
Cosmonaut



Registered: 01/26/08
Posts: 10,525
Loc:
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: dokunai]
#19022274 - 10/23/13 10:02 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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God damn I think I understand it again. For sure I won't tomorrow though. It's a damn elusive concept, .
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WhoManBeing
PsychedelicYogi



Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 3,773
Loc: Oregon
Last seen: 3 days, 22 hours
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: bryguy27007]
#19022347 - 10/23/13 10:14 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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if you picked door three, hadn't you already chosen the door
-------------------- Hip, hip... WhoRAy!!! Eye was thinking the other day... ahh, thinking never done me no good.
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jewunit
Brutal!


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 34,264
Loc: Ohio
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: WhoManBeing]
#19022367 - 10/23/13 10:17 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yeah, that's the point. You pick a door, and then upon having a losing door revealed you are given the option to either change what door you want or stick with your original pick.
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nicechrisman
Interdimensional space wizard



Registered: 11/07/03
Posts: 33,241
Last seen: 4 years, 6 months
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: jewunit]
#19022377 - 10/23/13 10:18 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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I'm I the only person here who doesn't give a shit about these doors?
-------------------- "Cosmic Love is absolutelely ruthless and highly indifferent: it teaches its lessons whether you like/dislike them or not." John C. Lily
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jewunit
Brutal!


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 34,264
Loc: Ohio
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: nicechrisman]
#19022379 - 10/23/13 10:19 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Well then find another thread, asshole
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nicechrisman
Interdimensional space wizard



Registered: 11/07/03
Posts: 33,241
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: jewunit]
#19022383 - 10/23/13 10:20 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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-------------------- "Cosmic Love is absolutelely ruthless and highly indifferent: it teaches its lessons whether you like/dislike them or not." John C. Lily
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jewunit
Brutal!


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 34,264
Loc: Ohio
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: nicechrisman] 1
#19022390 - 10/23/13 10:21 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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If I could use Photoshop I would totally make a "Door with it" gif right now.
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WhoManBeing
PsychedelicYogi



Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 3,773
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: jewunit]
#19022398 - 10/23/13 10:22 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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already picked a door, need pick more?
-------------------- Hip, hip... WhoRAy!!! Eye was thinking the other day... ahh, thinking never done me no good.
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jewunit
Brutal!


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 34,264
Loc: Ohio
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: WhoManBeing]
#19022406 - 10/23/13 10:24 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yes, that is the entire point of the problem. I mean shit if you can't even grasp the question let's not even start on the answer.
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WhoManBeing
PsychedelicYogi



Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 3,773
Loc: Oregon
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: jewunit]
#19022424 - 10/23/13 10:27 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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i picked a door. door was picked. you asked to pick a door. then asked if to switch. still picking doors.
-------------------- Hip, hip... WhoRAy!!! Eye was thinking the other day... ahh, thinking never done me no good.
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jewunit
Brutal!


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 34,264
Loc: Ohio
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: WhoManBeing]
#19022432 - 10/23/13 10:28 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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It's time you passed the joint, mate.
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WhoManBeing
PsychedelicYogi



Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 3,773
Loc: Oregon
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: jewunit]
#19022452 - 10/23/13 10:31 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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would you change YOUR door?
-------------------- Hip, hip... WhoRAy!!! Eye was thinking the other day... ahh, thinking never done me no good.
Edited by WhoManBeing (10/23/13 10:33 PM)
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Epigallo
Stranger
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: jewunit]
#19022470 - 10/23/13 10:33 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
jewunit said: Yes, that is the entire point of the problem. I mean shit if you can't even grasp the question let's not even start on the answer.

I can just see him up there talking to the game show host. "You're still picking doors? You're a little pick-happy aren't you? Need pick more?"
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WhoManBeing
PsychedelicYogi



Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 3,773
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: Epigallo]
#19022501 - 10/23/13 10:38 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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maybe picked the door because of the stain glassed window with font saying, 'pick me, sure to win.' wouldn't change the door. especially, the other door being a glass door showing styrofoam behind it.
-------------------- Hip, hip... WhoRAy!!! Eye was thinking the other day... ahh, thinking never done me no good.
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WhoManBeing
PsychedelicYogi



Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 3,773
Loc: Oregon
Last seen: 3 days, 22 hours
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: WhoManBeing]
#19022509 - 10/23/13 10:39 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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the question is, how much wood would a wood chuck chuck, if a wood chuck could chuck wood?
-------------------- Hip, hip... WhoRAy!!! Eye was thinking the other day... ahh, thinking never done me no good.
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WhoManBeing
PsychedelicYogi



Registered: 09/01/13
Posts: 3,773
Loc: Oregon
Last seen: 3 days, 22 hours
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Re: Loose Nonprefessional Crack [Re: WhoManBeing]
#19022520 - 10/23/13 10:40 PM (10 years, 3 months ago) |
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-------------------- Hip, hip... WhoRAy!!! Eye was thinking the other day... ahh, thinking never done me no good.
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