|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
The Silver Price Thread
#18761322 - 08/26/13 08:39 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Folks, I don't give a crap what price you paid for it, or where you hope it goes in price so that you can pick it up cheap. I am a technical analyst in this thread. Please do not feed me your fundamental silver story and talk about inflation or funny money. Like I don't already know about that. What this thread is about is about where silver is likely to go in price from here based on a price chart, and technical analysis.
First, it is clear 18ish was the bottom, and 20 was very short term resistance. The ride up to 24 has been fast. Major resistance is now at 26. If silver gets to that price, it is likely to fail miserably.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
26 also happens to be a falling 200 day moving average, but also was where silver supported many times when it was over 26, then failed miserably at that level in the recent downturn. I am not saying silver is going to 26 in the near term, but if it does it will have one hell of a time getting through that price. I am surprised it has bounced this far this fast pretty impressive.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
Edited by LunarEclipse (08/26/13 08:49 PM)
|
Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,697
Last seen: 5 days, 15 hours
|
|
Wait what how will it fail if it starts to grow backup in price. I bought some at 22$ a troy oz and if it goes up and I resell its a profit.
|
Gilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

Registered: 03/01/12
Posts: 11,671
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: Gorlax]
#18761619 - 08/26/13 09:49 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Hey post in my thread about precious metal news!
--------------------
|
qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 3 days, 11 hours
|
|
Quote:
LunarEclipse said: Folks, I don't give a crap what price you paid for it, or where you hope it goes in price so that you can pick it up cheap. I am a technical analyst in this thread. Please do not feed me your fundamental silver story and talk about inflation or funny money. Like I don't already know about that. What this thread is about is about where silver is likely to go in price from here based on a price chart, and technical analysis.
First, it is clear 18ish was the bottom, and 20 was very short term resistance. The ride up to 24 has been fast. Major resistance is now at 26. If silver gets to that price, it is likely to fail miserably.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
26 also happens to be a falling 200 day moving average, but also was where silver supported many times when it was over 26, then failed miserably at that level in the recent downturn. I am not saying silver is going to 26 in the near term, but if it does it will have one hell of a time getting through that price. I am surprised it has bounced this far this fast pretty impressive.
"If silver gets to that price ($26 oz), it is likely to fail miserably."
That price level should be a real battle, I don't think anyone knows the likely outcome.
"I am surprised it has bounced this far this fast pretty impressive."
Too many inventors were still short at $18 oz, that was greedy and stupid, short covering rallies can be intense in the silver market.
Edited by qman (08/26/13 09:55 PM)
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: Gorlax]
#18770359 - 08/28/13 08:27 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Gorlax said: Wait what how will it fail if it starts to grow backup in price. I bought some at 22$ a troy oz and if it goes up and I resell its a profit.
Look at the chart, and read my analysis. When the support at 26 failed, silver dropped super fast. Now we are in this "vicious" bear market? rally combined with Syria hysteria. The price bounces back to 24+ maybe if we start firing missiles it could get above 25 but seems to me looking at the chart it is destined to fail rather than keep going.
I mean technical analysis is a bit of an "art" but it's damn good at actually predicting where prices will go based on where they've been.
So once the support at 26 failed, now it becomes resistance which means if it hits it it's like hitting a wall. Should it get through that level it's off to the races but I doubt it.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: qman]
#18770415 - 08/28/13 08:36 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
qman said:
Quote:
LunarEclipse said: Folks, I don't give a crap what price you paid for it, or where you hope it goes in price so that you can pick it up cheap. I am a technical analyst in this thread. Please do not feed me your fundamental silver story and talk about inflation or funny money. Like I don't already know about that. What this thread is about is about where silver is likely to go in price from here based on a price chart, and technical analysis.
First, it is clear 18ish was the bottom, and 20 was very short term resistance. The ride up to 24 has been fast. Major resistance is now at 26. If silver gets to that price, it is likely to fail miserably.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
26 also happens to be a falling 200 day moving average, but also was where silver supported many times when it was over 26, then failed miserably at that level in the recent downturn. I am not saying silver is going to 26 in the near term, but if it does it will have one hell of a time getting through that price. I am surprised it has bounced this far this fast pretty impressive.
"If silver gets to that price ($26 oz), it is likely to fail miserably."
That price level should be a real battle, I don't think anyone knows the likely outcome.
"I am surprised it has bounced this far this fast pretty impressive."
Too many inventors were still short at $18 oz, that was greedy and stupid, short covering rallies can be intense in the silver market.
Damned inventors.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
|
Quote:
LunarEclipse said:
Damned inventors.
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: Gilgamesh18]
#18777187 - 08/30/13 12:36 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Gilgamesh18 said: Hey post in my thread about precious metal news!
Stay out of my thread ya fundamentalist.
Meanwhile, silver getting jammied.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
ManianFH
living in perverty


Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,805
Last seen: 32 minutes, 38 seconds
|
|
Drop drop drop!!!!
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: ManianFH]
#18777801 - 08/30/13 02:58 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
mick said: Drop drop drop!!!!
Now God Damn it one guy already posted he bought at $22, and here you are cheer leading a cheaper price. Both of which were strictly prohibited according to the OP.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
j_db69
Forever learning shaman



Registered: 02/09/04
Posts: 897
Last seen: 1 year, 8 months
|
|
I think it will stay steady for a bit. Gold on the other hand.... don't let it land on your toes on the way down, it is heavy 
I think if it hits 25 it will get close to 29-30, then fall back hard, low 20's again.
Can I ask what price you feel it is "worth"? (with todays $ of course) I put the "value" at ~30 btw
-------------------- One does not become enlightened by imagining figures of light, but by making the dark conscious. --Jung
|
qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 3 days, 11 hours
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: j_db69]
#18782407 - 08/31/13 06:43 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
j_db69 said: I think it will stay steady for a bit. Gold on the other hand.... don't let it land on your toes on the way down, it is heavy 
I think if it hits 25 it will get close to 29-30, then fall back hard, low 20's again.
Can I ask what price you feel it is "worth"? (with today's $ of course) I put the "value" at ~30 btw
Silver is worth $23.53 oz, that's what the market says it's worth.
About 80% of the silver that is mined is a by-product of what is the primary material (copper, gold, lead/zinc mines) that is being mined.
The 20% of silver that comes from primary silver mines have a cost of production of over $30 oz, or sometimes even higher. Can a commodity trade under its cost of production? Absolutely, and since only 20% of the silver mined is coming from primary silver miners, the cost of production is basically irrelevant in determining what silver is "worth".
About 2/3's of silver consumption is for industrial use, so the world produces more than enough silver to meet industrial demand, the other 1/3 is for investment, so investors basically value silver where it is trading, $23.53 oz.
|
j_db69
Forever learning shaman



Registered: 02/09/04
Posts: 897
Last seen: 1 year, 8 months
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: qman]
#18783337 - 08/31/13 10:21 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Would more be done with silver if it was "worth" $.50 by the "market value"?
I was just asking your opinion, about what price YOU would put on silver at today's $
-------------------- One does not become enlightened by imagining figures of light, but by making the dark conscious. --Jung
|
qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 3 days, 11 hours
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: j_db69]
#18784404 - 09/01/13 08:20 AM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
j_db69 said: Would more be done with silver if it was "worth" $.50 by the "market value"?
I was just asking your opinion, about what price YOU would put on silver at today's $
Industrial users would most likely stockpile the metal at silly low prices, and investors would also most likely increase their purchases.
For silver to make price gains, there has to be the threat of inflation, or actual heavy inflation in the economy, at this point there is none of those outcomes.
Despite the US and other developed economies having very loose monetary policy (0% interest rates and massive QE) the past 5-6 years, the inflation rate has remained low. Taking all of this into consideration, silver at $20-30 oz is fairly priced in my opinion.
If the major currencies of the world (US dollar, Euro, Pound, and Yen) experience a true devaluation in the coming years, all bets are off, high inflation and soaring silver is the result. There are lots of risks out there, so far the policymakers have managed a small miracle, eventually things could catch up to them.
Edited by qman (09/01/13 08:22 AM)
|
j_db69
Forever learning shaman



Registered: 02/09/04
Posts: 897
Last seen: 1 year, 8 months
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: qman]
#18784664 - 09/01/13 10:13 AM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
No offense to any of the holders of silver (I have a vested interested myself), but I wish it would not be used as currency, same with gold. There are two metals with amazing properties (which give it value, I know), but what else could be done with this stuff? We are held back by our own greed (I am not leaving myself out as the problem either 
while yes, a de-stabalizing of the major currencies would bring those values up far higher, I don't think that will be true forever.
Especially with gold, do you not think there are vasts amounts of gold "in researve" for the mining companies than they are letting on? Do their prices match the "value" placed on gold? Strange that they make a steady climb..
sorry, the above is kinda conspiracy type stuff, but I am really hoping some other form of "securities" come up that will negate the hording/storing of gold and silver. "Why yes, I would like all gold connections/wire please"
-------------------- One does not become enlightened by imagining figures of light, but by making the dark conscious. --Jung
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: j_db69]
#18788587 - 09/02/13 07:32 AM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
j_db69 said: No offense to any of the holders of silver (I have a vested interested myself), but I wish it would not be used as currency, same with gold. There are two metals with amazing properties (which give it value, I know), but what else could be done with this stuff? We are held back by our own greed (I am not leaving myself out as the problem either 
while yes, a de-stabalizing of the major currencies would bring those values up far higher, I don't think that will be true forever.
Especially with gold, do you not think there are vasts amounts of gold "in researve" for the mining companies than they are letting on? Do their prices match the "value" placed on gold? Strange that they make a steady climb..
sorry, the above is kinda conspiracy type stuff, but I am really hoping some other form of "securities" come up that will negate the hording/storing of gold and silver. "Why yes, I would like all gold connections/wire please" 
Other "securities" such as food, water, and fuel, will come to the forefront at some point. Let's not forget the looting of gold and silver from the general population under Executive Order by FDR in 1933. Sure it's 70 years later, but let's face it we sure have been seeing a lot of signs history can and maybe will repeat itself. How much will your gold and silver be worth if the government declares they want it, and if you don't give it to them you will be shot if they find it?
The notion that people will be swapping gold and silver when the SHTF is a ridiculous notion. Perhaps some silver could be swapped, but really those 1 oz gold coins may not be too practical to buy food with.
But really this is about the price of silver, which never did reach my projected $26 resistance, failed at 25 and is now lower and probably going to retest $20 unless we really bomb Syria. It's a monstrous bear flag begging for a bottom test.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 3 days, 11 hours
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: j_db69] 1
#18788698 - 09/02/13 08:32 AM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
j_db69 said: No offense to any of the holders of silver (I have a vested interested myself), but I wish it would not be used as currency, same with gold. There are two metals with amazing properties (which give it value, I know), but what else could be done with this stuff? We are held back by our own greed (I am not leaving myself out as the problem either 
while yes, a de-stabalizing of the major currencies would bring those values up far higher, I don't think that will be true forever.
Especially with gold, do you not think there are vasts amounts of gold "in researve" for the mining companies than they are letting on? Do their prices match the "value" placed on gold? Strange that they make a steady climb..
sorry, the above is kinda conspiracy type stuff, but I am really hoping some other form of "securities" come up that will negate the hording/storing of gold and silver. "Why yes, I would like all gold connections/wire please" 
"I wish it would not be used as currency, same with gold."
The paper currencies should be backed with gold, no one literally would use the metal in a financial transaction.
|
j_db69
Forever learning shaman



Registered: 02/09/04
Posts: 897
Last seen: 1 year, 8 months
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: qman]
#18789718 - 09/02/13 12:42 PM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
qman said:
The paper currencies should be backed with gold, no one literally would use the metal in a financial transaction.
I did not mean the literal use of gold/silver for currency per-say.
and Lunar, how enforced are written records of gold/silver movements? especially smaller amounts (that equal large amounts). How enforced are gun ownerships?
The lack of enforcing documentation for "precious" metals lead me to believe that even the gov does not put much faith in the "scarcity" or inflated "value" that they appear to hold. Sure in the SHTF scenarios, if it were to happen soon, silver would be much more useful. But think about it, how many people could even distinguish real gold or silver? (yes they would learn quickly, hopefully not by the person offering the metal) Who would really trade for it in desperate times? I don't think either would taste very good or be very nutritionally sound.
Edited by j_db69 (09/02/13 12:49 PM)
|
LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
|
Re: The Silver Price Thread [Re: j_db69]
#18793513 - 09/03/13 09:04 AM (10 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
j_db69 said:
Quote:
qman said:
The paper currencies should be backed with gold, no one literally would use the metal in a financial transaction.
I did not mean the literal use of gold/silver for currency per-say.
and Lunar, how enforced are written records of gold/silver movements? especially smaller amounts (that equal large amounts). How enforced are gun ownerships?
The lack of enforcing documentation for "precious" metals lead me to believe that even the gov does not put much faith in the "scarcity" or inflated "value" that they appear to hold. Sure in the SHTF scenarios, if it were to happen soon, silver would be much more useful. But think about it, how many people could even distinguish real gold or silver? (yes they would learn quickly, hopefully not by the person offering the metal) Who would really trade for it in desperate times? I don't think either would taste very good or be very nutritionally sound.
Obamacare had a provision to start keeping tight track of metals transactions but I think if got taken out. I believe it was for anything over $600? Dealers weren't stoked about that possible development. But see how easy it would be to make trading metals without reporting ILLEGAL?? And this is before "desparate times".
If you are interested check out tungsten core with gold plating 400 ounce gold bars found in "good delivery" LBMA vaults in Hong Kong. How many of those are in other vaults? No one knows without coring into them. The fakes were/are that good.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
|
j_db69
Forever learning shaman



Registered: 02/09/04
Posts: 897
Last seen: 1 year, 8 months
|
|
You know then how prevalent fakes have become. In "uncertain" times, would you even take it for trade? Same would be true for "paper" money of course, actually ANYTHING that you could not verify.
But the POSSIBILITY of it being recorded is not the same as being implemented. If just enough concern is shown, that will do just fine for use as "backing" a paper money
-------------------- One does not become enlightened by imagining figures of light, but by making the dark conscious. --Jung
|
|