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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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What will happen to the economy when robots take over?
    #1868848 - 08/31/03 06:42 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Here in an interesting article on the coming robotic revolution. I believe the first part of the article to be accurate. I think in 10-20 years there will be almost no labor jobs, and unemploymnet in America will approach that of a third world country. This of course begs the question of who will buy the products if 20%-30% are homeless and unemployed.

An interesting read on the future of the economy, and especially the working poor.


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Offlinepattern
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1868916 - 08/31/03 07:11 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Dream on man. It won't happen. Robots will require maintenance, energy, and instruction. The only ones who will achieve the true freedom expoused in the article will be the high class who can afford to hire people to run their robots for them. Basically, the same way it is today.


--------------------
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Edited by pattern (08/31/03 07:23 PM)


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: pattern]
    #1868955 - 08/31/03 07:27 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

At this point I would say that dreaming is our only hope.
Quote:

Basically, the same way it is today.





Except with unemployment as high as during the great depression.


Edited by Baby_Hitler (08/31/03 07:29 PM)


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Anonymous

Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1868979 - 08/31/03 07:36 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

.


Edited by pinksharkmark (09/01/03 10:35 AM)


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Anonymous

Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1868987 - 08/31/03 07:42 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

.


Edited by pinksharkmark (09/01/03 10:36 AM)


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OfflineDava
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: ]
    #1869036 - 08/31/03 08:09 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:


By 2015 we will start to see voice-recognizing robots helping customers in these stores, inventory-shelving robots putting the products out, cleaning robots sweeping the floors and the parking lots, cart robots bringing the shopping carts back into the store.... Robots will be moving in to make the completely automated retail store a reality in a 2020 time frame.




Ppl (customers) like social contact, they love a chitchat here and there, especially when shopping or going out.
They will never like the idea of being helped by a cold robot who only gives the needed advice. nothing more, nothing less.

Do you like the idea of getting a beer from a robot?
I d rather have a nice lady behind the bar.

+ They forgot the fact that a robot is quite an expensive investment.
Its mostly cheaper to use human hands to do the job.
A robot isnt cheap, nor is the maintenance.



--------------------
"These psychedelic substances cause hysterical psychoses in people who have not taken them..."
- Timothy Leary


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Dava]
    #1869096 - 08/31/03 08:25 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Robots are getting cheaper. Soon robots that can replace humans will cost only a few hundred.


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Anonymous

Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1869110 - 08/31/03 08:35 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

increasing our productive potential will just mean that there's more to go around.


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OfflineFileSoup
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1869151 - 08/31/03 08:56 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

It's an interesting theory.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: ]
    #1869200 - 08/31/03 09:17 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Stuff will have to be cheaper because A: stuff will be cheaper to make, and B: nobody will have any money.


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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1869206 - 08/31/03 09:19 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

When robots take over, they'll use us for energy and program an artificial world for us called the Matrix.


--------------------


"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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OfflineCornholio
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1869230 - 08/31/03 09:28 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

I'm not sure if the article "No Rest for the Productive" has been posted before, but it talks about how people already predicted a robotic takeover of manual labor at the World's Fair of 1939.



The interesting thing is that people were naive enough to believe that as robots (and later computers) started replacing human labor, that their work hours could go down from 40 hour work weeks to 20 hour work weeks, or that they would get more vacation time. But this hasn't happened even though technology would now make it possible.

"So why are Americans working harder than ever? The reason is that while technology has evolved, people haven't. If your employer discovers that a computer can cut the time it takes to do your job in half, is he going to let you work half your current hours for the same pay? No." Instead, he's going to fire half his workers, and the money saved will go to the corporate owners. This is a major reason why the rich are getting richer, while the middle class and poor are no better off today than they were a long time ago.



Ironically enough, it's the poor and middle class engineers and laborers who are developing and building the new technology that is making the rich richer (while they get nothing from it)!

And as the rich get more and more control of the Government, it's unlikely that this trend will ever change as long as people are naive and apathetic.


--------------------


Edited by Cornholio (09/01/03 12:09 AM)


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OfflineDoctorJ
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: silversoul7]
    #1869242 - 08/31/03 09:36 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

technology has been affecting the job economy for quite some time. 

I'm fairly certain that no matter how technologically advanced we get, there will always be menial chores and hard labor to be done. 

The human race has adapted to the influence of technology by becoming more intelligent.  A 100 IQ today is worth a 120 IQ back when they first started measuring them.  Its a good thing.

I think technology's influence on the job market is a probable cause of the fact that a high school diploma, and even a bachelor's degree are totally worthless.  To get a good job, you have to have masters or higher.  Education has to become a priority in people's lives if they dont want to starve.  IMO this is exactly as it should be.  The only problem is that not everybody has access to a good education :frown: especially in the preoperational development period where good education is important.

God willing, and with the right policy, our society will become a heirarchy of wisdom rather than a heirarchy of assets


--------------------
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Get yourself cleaned out.'


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: DoctorJ]
    #1869274 - 08/31/03 09:57 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

pretty soon education will be pointless because even a PhD will be worthless. You'll need at least 5 PhDs to get a decent job.


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Offlinepattern
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1869282 - 08/31/03 10:01 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Heh.  Whats with the pessimism?  PhDs are already worthless.  Its who you know, not what you know, right?  :wink:

Or maybe, which robots you know...


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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: pattern]
    #1869298 - 08/31/03 10:07 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Or maybe which former president is your dad. :wink:


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"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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Offlinepattern
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: silversoul7]
    #1869305 - 08/31/03 10:10 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Hopefully Americans will elect a robot president.


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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: pattern]
    #1869314 - 08/31/03 10:15 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Nah, he lost to Bush last election. :wink:


--------------------


"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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OfflineDoctorJ
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: silversoul7]
    #1869330 - 08/31/03 10:25 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

"pretty soon education will be pointless"

I sincerly doubt that will ever happen.

"because even a PhD will be worthless. You'll need at least 5 PhDs to get a decent job."

If our IQ's continue to go up at the same rate, this shouldnt be a problem. We will be required of more intellectually, but the circumstances of our development will make us capable of more. All of my psych profs openly admit their students are more intelligent than they are. It only stands to reason: they grew up with black & white TV, and we grew up with MS windows and the internet.

Its the evolution revolution, baby!!!


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Get yourself cleaned out.'


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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: DoctorJ]
    #1869338 - 08/31/03 10:28 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Newsflash: IQ's aren't going up. Information is. There's a difference. I guarantee you that Ptolemy was smarter than you, even tho he thought the earth was the center of the universe. That was just the level of information they had available at that time.


--------------------


"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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OfflineDoctorJ
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: silversoul7]
    #1869365 - 08/31/03 10:41 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

I think you need to do a little research on what an IQ is and how one is derived before you start telling me whether or not they are going up.

any psychologist- evolutionary, cognitive, developmental, or whatever will confirm what I have said, assuming they are up on all the latest data.


--------------------
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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: DoctorJ]
    #1869438 - 08/31/03 11:09 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

IQ may be going up, but intelligence isn't.

Maybe someday they'll write a computer program that can replace a CEO.


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Offlinehongomon
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1869557 - 08/31/03 11:44 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Technology will continue to improve our production efficiency. It takes less and less people to produce food for a given number of people, and all other production is similar. As time goes on it will be necessary for even more people to have strange seemingly meaningless jobs of filing paperwork, inputting data, or sitting in board meetings. This is why we MUSTN'T SCREW WITH THE PUBLIC SCHOOLS SYSTEM!


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OfflineCornholio
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: hongomon]
    #1869725 - 09/01/03 12:27 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

hongomon said:
Technology will continue to improve our production efficiency.  It takes less and less people to produce food for a given number of people, and all other production is similar.  As time goes on it will be necessary for even more people to have strange seemingly meaningless jobs of filing paperwork, inputting data, or sitting in board meetings.


Who says people have to work 40 hour workweeks?  The people in 1939 (from my article above) proposed that people in the future simply work less, say 20 or 30 hours per week.  That would give everyone more free time, and would also allow everyone to have a job even though there would be less work available.

The drawback of this system is that you would still have to pay people working 20 or 30 hour workweeks the same as you used to pay them when they worked 40 hours workweeks.  Even though output would still be the same (due to the greater efficiency), coprorations would never do this because they know that they could make even more more money by laying off some people and pocketing the extra profits resulting from efficiency.

If corporations get really smart, they can lobby the Government to get rid of overtime rules and make more people salaried employees, so they can get even more than 40 hours a week out of people, wihtout paying them overtime.  This would allow them to lay off even more workers, and pocket even more profits.  Let's hope something like that never happens.  :rolleyes: 


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Cornholio]
    #1869771 - 09/01/03 12:54 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

What if everybody just got their own robot that makes stuff for them, like you could buy a robot capable of making hedge clippers, shoes, and ice cream cones and you made stuff and sold it or traded stuff with other people who have robots?


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Re: What will happen to the economy when robots take over? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #1871125 - 09/01/03 02:49 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

This was written by Frederic Bastiat in 1850. People have been worried about this for a long time and as of yet we have had no real problems with this.

Quote:

VIII. MACHINERY

"A curse on machines! Every year, their increasing power devotes millions of workmen to pauperism, by depriving them of work, and therefore of wages and bread. A curse on machines!"

This is the cry which is raised by vulgar prejudice, and echoed in the journals.

But to curse machines, is to curse the spirit of humanity!

It puzzles me to conceive how any man can feel any satisfaction in such a doctrine.

For, if true, what is its inevitable consequence? That there is no activity, prosperity, wealth, or happiness possible for any people, except for those who are stupid and inert, and to whom God has not granted the fatal gift of knowing how to think, to observe, to combine, to invent, and to obtain the greatest results with the smallest means. On the contrary, rags, mean huts, poverty, and inanition, are the inevitable lot of every nation which seeks and finds in iron, fire, wind, electricity, magnetism, the laws of chemistry and mechanics, in a word, in the powers of nature, an assistance to its natural powers. We might as well say with Rousseau - "Every man that thinks is a depraved animal."

This is not all; if this doctrine is true, since all men think and invent, since all, from first to last, and at every moment of their existence, seek the cooperation of the powers of nature, and try to make the most of a little, by reducing either the work of their hands, or their expenses, so as to obtain the greatest possible amount of gratification with the smallest possible amount of labour, it must follow, as a matter of course, that the whole of mankind is rushing towards its decline, by the same mental aspiration towards progress, which torments each of its members.

Hence, it ought to be made known, by statistics, that the inhabitants of Lancashire, abandoning that land of machines, seek for work in Ireland, where they are unknown; and, by history, that barbarism darkens the epochs of civilization, and that civilization shines in times of ignorance and barbarism.

There is evidently in this mass of contradictions something which revolts us, and which leads us to suspect that the problem contains within it an element of solution which has not been sufficiently disengaged.

Here is the whole mystery: behind that which is seen, lies something which is not seen. I will endeavour to bring it to light. The demonstration I shall give will only be a repetition of the preceding one, for the problems are one and the same.

Men have a natural propensity to make the best bargain they can, when not prevented by an opposing force; that is, they like to obtain as much as they possibly can for their labour, whether the advantage is obtained from a foreign producer, or a skillful mechanical producer.

The theoretical objection which is made to this propensity is the same in both cases. In each case it is reproached with the apparent inactivity which it causes to labour. Now, labour rendered available, not inactive, is the very thing which determines it. And, therefore, in both cases, the same practical obstacle - force, is opposed to it also. The legislator prohibits foreign competition, and forbids mechanical competition. For what other means can exist for arresting a propensity which is natural to all men, but that of depriving them of their liberty?

In many countries, it is true, the legislator strikes at only one of these competitions, and confines himself to grumbling at the other. This only proves one thing, that is, that the legislator is inconsistent.

Harm Of False Premise

We need not be surprised at this. On a wrong road, inconsistency is inevitable; if it were not so, mankind would be sacrificed. A false principle never has been, and never will be, carried out to the end.

Now for our demonstration, which shall not be a long one.

James B. had two francs which he had gained by two workmen; but it occurs to him, that an arrangement of ropes and weights might be made which would diminish the labour by half. Thus he obtains the same advantage, saves a franc, and discharges a workman.

He discharges a workman: this is that which is seen.

And seeing this only, it is said, "See how misery attends civilization; this is the way that liberty is fatal to equality. The human mind has made a conquest, and immediately a workman is cast into the gulf of pauperism. James B. may possibly employ the two workmen, but then he will give them only half their wages for they will compete with each other, and offer themselves at the lowest price. Thus the rich are always growing richer, and the poor, poorer. Society wants remodelling." A very fine conclusion, and worthy of the preamble.

Happily, preamble and conclusion are both false, because, behind the half of the phenomenon which is seen, lies the other half which is not seen.

The franc saved by James B. is not seen, no more are the necessary effects of this saving.

Since, in consequence of his invention, James B. spends only one franc on hand labour in the pursuit of a determined advantage, another franc remains to him.

If, then, there is in the world a workman with unemployed arms, there is also in the world a capitalist with an unemployed franc. These two elements meet and combine, and it is as clear as daylight, that between the supply and demand of labour, and between the supply and demand of wages, the relation is in no way changed.

The invention and the workman paid with the first franc, now perform the work which was formerly accomplished by two workmen. The second workman, paid with the second franc, realizes a new kind of work.

What is the change, then, which has taken place? An additional national advantage has been gained; in other words, the invention is a gratuitous triumph - a gratuitous profit for mankind.

From the form which I have given to my demonstration, the following inference might be drawn: - "It is the capitalist who reaps all the advantage from machinery. The working class, if it suffers only temporarily, never profits by it, since, by your own showing, they displace a portion of the national labour, without diminishing it, it is true, but also without increasing it."

I do not pretend, in this slight treatise, to answer every objection; the only end I have in view, is to combat a vulgar, widely spread, and dangerous prejudice. I want to prove, that a new machine only causes the discharge of a certain number of hands, when the remuneration which pays them as abstracted by force. These hands, and this remuneration, would combine to produce what it was impossible to produce before the invention; whence it follows that the final result is an increase of advantages for equal labour.

Who is the gainer by these additional advantages?

First, it is true, the capitalist, the inventor; the first who succeeds in using the machine; and this is the reward of his genius and his courage. In this case, as we have just seen, he effects a saving upon the expense of production, which, in whatever way it may be spent (and it always is spent), employs exactly as many hands as the machine caused to be dismissed.

But soon competition obliges him to lower his prices in proportion to the saving itself; and then it is no longer the inventor who reaps the benefit of the invention - it is the purchaser of what is produced, the consumer, the public, including the workmen; in a word, mankind.

And that which is not seen is, that the saving thus procured for all consumers creates a fund whence wages may be supplied, and which replaces that which the machine has exhausted.

Thus, to recur to the forementioned example, James B. obtains a profit by spending two francs in wages. Thanks to his invention, the hand labour costs him only one franc. So long as he sells the thing produced at the same price, he employs one workman less in producing this particular thing, and that is what is seen; but there is an additional workman employed by the franc which James B. has saved. This is that which is not seen.

When, by the natural progress of things, James B. is obliged to lower the price of the thing produced by one franc, then he no longer realizes a saving; then he has no longer a franc to dispose of, to procure for the national labour a new production; but then another gainer takes his place, and this gainer is mankind. Whoever buys the thing he has produced, pays a franc less, and necessarily adds this saving to the fund of wages; and this, again, is what is not seen.

Another solution, founded upon facts, has been given of this problem of machinery.

It was said, machinery reduces the expense of production, and lowers the price of the thing produced. The reduction of the profit causes an increase of consumption, which necessitates an increase of production, and, finally, the introduction of as many workmen, or more, after the invention as were necessary before it. As a proof of this, printing, weaving, &c., are instanced.

This demonstration is not a scientific one. It would lead us to conclude, that if the consumption of the particular production of which we are speaking remains stationary, or nearly so, machinery must injure labour. This is not the case.

Suppose that in a certain country all the people wore hats; if, by machinery, the price could be reduced half, it would not necessarily follow that the consumption would be doubled.

Would you say, that in this case a portion of the national labour had been paralyzed? Yes, according to the vulgar demonstration; but, according to mine, No; for even if not a single hat more should be bought in the country, the entire fund of wages would not be the less secure. That which failed to go to the hat-making trade would be found to have gone to the economy realized by all the consumers, and would thence serve to pay for all the labour which the machine had rendered useless, and to excite a new development of all the trades. And thus it is that things go on. I have known newspapers to cost eighty francs, now we pay forty-eight: here is a saving of thirty-two francs to the subscribers. It is not certain, or, at least, necessary, that the thirty-two francs should take the direction of the journalist trade; but it is certain, and necessary too, that if they do not take this direction they will take another. One makes use of them for taking in more newspapers; another, to get better living; another, better clothes; another, better furniture. It is thus that the trades are bound together. They form a vast whole, whose different parts communicate by secret canals; what is saved by one, profits all. It is very important for us to understand, that savings never take place at the expense of labour and wares.




Source


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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


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kaiowas 2,817 22 08/26/03 10:37 AM
by Anonymous
* Hail Bush! Fixer of the Economy nugsarenice 1,508 19 04/27/02 11:42 PM
by nugsarenice

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