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shLong



Registered: 03/04/10
Posts: 25,330
Loc: 'sconsin
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I don't understand any acronymns in this thread 
Is there a legend somewhere?
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: shLong]
#17470549 - 12/30/12 11:25 AM (11 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
shLong said: I don't understand any acronymns in this thread 
Is there a legend somewhere?
SHTF = Shit Hits The Fan ETF = Exchange Traded Fund GLD = ETF based around the price of gold CNBC = Television (TV) network owned by GE (General Electric) JPM = J.P. Morgan Co.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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shLong



Registered: 03/04/10
Posts: 25,330
Loc: 'sconsin
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Thank you so much.
The GLD is what was confusing me the most.
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: shLong]
#17470718 - 12/30/12 12:18 PM (11 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
shLong said: Thank you so much.
The GLD is what was confusing me the most.
You are so welcome. What has changed too as a result of these precious metals ETFs is the leverage now associated with them. Further, money flows in and out of them affect the price of the physical metals. The huge $$ in GLD and SLV along with options derivatives and whatever else JPM is doing to speculate/hedge is a bit like the proverbial tail wagging the dog.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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shLong



Registered: 03/04/10
Posts: 25,330
Loc: 'sconsin
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Yeah, I only deal with physical silver. I have some bars, and Morgan/Peace dollars. I currently only have about 11-15 oz with another $300 worth of assorted US silver currency in transit to me at the moment.
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: shLong]
#17470949 - 12/30/12 01:15 PM (11 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
shLong said: Yeah, I only deal with physical silver. I have some bars, and Morgan/Peace dollars. I currently only have about 11-15 oz with another $300 worth of assorted US silver currency in transit to me at the moment.
Yeah not a bad time to buy. Let's look at some technical charts, shall we?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
Real support is around $27. I would expect it to hold, BUT if this "fiscal cliff" stuff or tax increases or the US Dollar really strengthens and the euro takes a dump we can clearly see next meaningful support for silver on the five year chart is around $18 an ounce...
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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shLong



Registered: 03/04/10
Posts: 25,330
Loc: 'sconsin
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So you're saying there's a chance for silver to be back around $18/oz? That really scares me. That'd be a 50% loss on my investment (which I thought was a pretty sound investment)
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shLong



Registered: 03/04/10
Posts: 25,330
Loc: 'sconsin
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: shLong]
#17471011 - 12/30/12 01:30 PM (11 years, 30 days ago) |
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I figured it'd be a wise choice buying "Ag" instead of letting it gain no interest in my savings account. I really don't know shit about what to do with my money.
It is 'fun' having physical precious metals, though
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Gilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

Registered: 03/01/12
Posts: 11,671
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Quote:
LunarEclipse said:
Quote:
shLong said: Yeah, I only deal with physical silver. I have some bars, and Morgan/Peace dollars. I currently only have about 11-15 oz with another $300 worth of assorted US silver currency in transit to me at the moment.
Yeah not a bad time to buy. Let's look at some technical charts, shall we?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
Real support is around $27. I would expect it to hold, BUT if this "fiscal cliff" stuff or tax increases or the US Dollar really strengthens and the euro takes a dump we can clearly see next meaningful support for silver on the five year chart is around $18 an ounce...
Even if it falls to 18 an ounce the premiums might be like an 10 bucks an ounce due to shortages I see no reason to worry.
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 10 minutes, 9 seconds
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Quote:
Gilgamesh18 said: Even if it falls to 18 an ounce the premiums might be like an 10 bucks an ounce due to shortages I see no reason to worry.
That's some downright wishful thinking right there. Sounds like you're making a case for a no-lose situation, and in this life, those don't exist my friend.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: geokills]
#17471554 - 12/30/12 02:58 PM (11 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
Quote:
Gilgamesh18 said: Even if it falls to 18 an ounce the premiums might be like an 10 bucks an ounce due to shortages I see no reason to worry.
That's some downright wishful thinking right there. Sounds like you're making a case for a no-lose situation, and in this life, those don't exist my friend.
Yeah that makes no sense I agree. I really don't think it will drop back to $18 but maybe $20. Looking at that chart if it does go below about 26.80 and gets rolling to the downside it will be look out below. It's volatile and emotional and at that point it won't take long. The difference this time is that the "real" fundamentals seem better than ever for silver and let's not forget it's off of almost $50 an ounce so about a 50% correction from the high. Follow the US Dollar if it really gets strong silver has no way to go but down.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Gilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

Registered: 03/01/12
Posts: 11,671
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Well ill just buy even more if it falls I can't lose
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Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: Makaveli]
#17472269 - 12/30/12 04:48 PM (11 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
Makaveli said: Don't destroy JPM. I like my job 
wow. how do you sleep at night?
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Makaveli
OG
Registered: 04/01/99
Posts: 1,700
Loc: NY
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: Shins]
#17473770 - 12/30/12 09:25 PM (11 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
Shins said:
Quote:
Makaveli said: Don't destroy JPM. I like my job 
wow. how do you sleep at night?
With all my money
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Cannashroom
Smoke two Joints



Registered: 10/25/07
Posts: 2,141
Loc: Everywhere
Last seen: 6 years, 9 months
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: Makaveli]
#17476192 - 12/31/12 11:36 AM (11 years, 29 days ago) |
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Silver trades as futures contracts, and the vast majority (90%+?) the silver is never delivered, they settle for the new price in cash.
If silver dropped below say $26 again, you would see a sharp rise in the amount of deliveries taken.
The catch however, there is not enough silver to be delivered to everyone who own a future contract.
If paper silver drops under $26, you will see a paper/physical divergence. As gilgamesh said, the premium would shoot up.
And if the entire stock market collapses, you will be left with something that still had value.
Remember, the US currency will be worthless in 30-100 years. Silver has held value for all of history (with S&D fluctuations of course).
-------------------- "A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest -- a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty. Nobody is able to achieve this completely but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation and a foundation for inner security." Albert Einstein
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Gilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

Registered: 03/01/12
Posts: 11,671
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Quote:
Cannashroom said: Silver trades as futures contracts, and the vast majority (90%+?) the silver is never delivered, they settle for the new price in cash.
If silver dropped below say $26 again, you would see a sharp rise in the amount of deliveries taken.
The catch however, there is not enough silver to be delivered to everyone who own a future contract.
If paper silver drops under $26, you will see a paper/physical divergence. As gilgamesh said, the premium would shoot up.
And if the entire stock market collapses, you will be left with something that still had value.
Remember, the US currency will be worthless in 30-100 years. Silver has held value for all of history (with S&D fluctuations of course).
Aye I agree I think to many people want physical for the price to drop. I see sustained demand well into the future with the value of the metal continuing to increase.
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Makaveli
OG
Registered: 04/01/99
Posts: 1,700
Loc: NY
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Quote:
Gilgamesh18 said: We have now entered the ‘hammer zone’ for silver coming up to the end of the year. The next two weeks will be very difficult for all but the most die-hard silver investors, but will be seen next year for what it was - a supreme buying opportunity.
It’s excellent that another major price decline happened today, because Tuesdays are when COMEX futures positions are reported to the CFTC, which will be reported in this weeks’ Commitment of Traders report on Friday, Dec 21st. Based on the silver price at end of day today and the amount of short covering that the Commercial bullion banks have done today, by the end of the week we will have an excellent idea of how long and deep this particular correction will be. This will allow stackers to confidently stack even more physical silver at these heavily depressed prices.
Sentiment in the precious metals is perhaps worse at the moment than I can remember for the past 7 years – even worse than this past summer. Most precious metal bulls are now thinking, “I bought so much precious metal because I know that fiat currencies are toast, and yet when the most bullish-possible events happen within months of each other…QE3 (neverending QE) and QE4 (doubling the size of neverending QE)…precious metals actually fell. Maybe I’m wrong about precious metals! Maybe I’ve been wrong all along! Maybe gold was in a bubble!! Maybe I should SELL and get out’.
I know that there are thousands upon thousands of intelligent, informed precious metals investors for whom this exact pattern of thoughts has been repeating endlessly in their minds for days now. Many have indeed sold out of fear.
This is precisely what TPTB want; the perception that they focus their entire psy-ops and market manipulation tricks on creating, and why they have even induced the criminal banks to go short more silver now than they have been in over 2 years…since the last explosive rise in silver from 20-50$, in fact, which nearly destroyed the entire fiat currency system. TPTB are that concerned that we are nearing the fiat endgame; they need to keep the Sheeple in paper assets at any and all costs, and they will stop at absolutely nothing to destroy PM sentiment, dissuade PM fence-sitters, and try to induce even the strongest PM hands to sell.
Me, I’ve done my research. I KNOW what is coming down the road, and not that far away (3-7 years). Not one society in history has ever escaped from the deleterious effects of massive deficit spending to fund wars and social programs, far in excess of the taxes that can be collected, without either a massive decline in the value of the currency, or a total destruction of the currency. The current (un)controlled demolition of the US dollar is being done through massive deficit spending, now funded almost totally by outright monetization (money printing). Everything is proceeding exactly as one might have expected some 7 years ago when I tentatively bought my first silver round for $8 due to fears of the unsustainability of the financial system and the utter folly of owning paper assets.
I view this latest silver correction as nothing more or less than another brief ‘blip’ on the road to total currency destruction and a revaluation of silver by at least a magnitudue; and perhaps your last opportunity to ever buy silver for under $30 again. As such, I welcome this dip, and hope it persists for some months so that as much physical silver is taken off the market as possible. Once this shakeout is over early next year, silver is going to move up so fast, you will hardly believe it, easily increasing 75-150% within 12-16 months.
FWIW, I’ll be posting about my assessment of the proximity to what I personally think is the ‘bottom’ over the next few weeks, but the important thing is not to be able to buy at the exact bottom (which is nearly impossible) – merely to buy when prices are low, instead of holding your fiat in fear that prices will fall even further, only for prices to start moving up again, making you reluctant to buy at all, and forcing you to eventually buy at much higher prices (if at all).
Buying silver requires either an iron will, or a deep conviction in the correctness of your contrarian investing based on your own research and knowledge. Once you have the latter, you no longer need the former. Without the latter, however, you will always need the former. Hopefully some of my posts are helpful in supplying some of the latter.
Hold strong, stackers, and use this dip to lower your DCA as much as possible. My gut says that we are now within a dollar or two of the bottom, but there will be confirming evidence in this week's COT report, which I will share on Friday.
It doesn’t matter how much you earn; it only matters how much you save. Precious metals are not only the best way to save in an economic climate of money-printing, high inflation, and unprecedented counterparty risk; the long-term fundamentals for gold and silver are so bullish as to make an eventual price explosion a foregone conclusion.
Are you "Some_Math_Guy" on the Kitco forum? The post is copy and pasted directly from there. If you are, you have some really insightful posts over there that our community here would benefit from.
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Gilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

Registered: 03/01/12
Posts: 11,671
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: Makaveli]
#17476882 - 12/31/12 01:56 PM (11 years, 29 days ago) |
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Quote:
Makaveli said:
Quote:
Gilgamesh18 said: We have now entered the ‘hammer zone’ for silver coming up to the end of the year. The next two weeks will be very difficult for all but the most die-hard silver investors, but will be seen next year for what it was - a supreme buying opportunity.
It’s excellent that another major price decline happened today, because Tuesdays are when COMEX futures positions are reported to the CFTC, which will be reported in this weeks’ Commitment of Traders report on Friday, Dec 21st. Based on the silver price at end of day today and the amount of short covering that the Commercial bullion banks have done today, by the end of the week we will have an excellent idea of how long and deep this particular correction will be. This will allow stackers to confidently stack even more physical silver at these heavily depressed prices.
Sentiment in the precious metals is perhaps worse at the moment than I can remember for the past 7 years – even worse than this past summer. Most precious metal bulls are now thinking, “I bought so much precious metal because I know that fiat currencies are toast, and yet when the most bullish-possible events happen within months of each other…QE3 (neverending QE) and QE4 (doubling the size of neverending QE)…precious metals actually fell. Maybe I’m wrong about precious metals! Maybe I’ve been wrong all along! Maybe gold was in a bubble!! Maybe I should SELL and get out’.
I know that there are thousands upon thousands of intelligent, informed precious metals investors for whom this exact pattern of thoughts has been repeating endlessly in their minds for days now. Many have indeed sold out of fear.
This is precisely what TPTB want; the perception that they focus their entire psy-ops and market manipulation tricks on creating, and why they have even induced the criminal banks to go short more silver now than they have been in over 2 years…since the last explosive rise in silver from 20-50$, in fact, which nearly destroyed the entire fiat currency system. TPTB are that concerned that we are nearing the fiat endgame; they need to keep the Sheeple in paper assets at any and all costs, and they will stop at absolutely nothing to destroy PM sentiment, dissuade PM fence-sitters, and try to induce even the strongest PM hands to sell.
Me, I’ve done my research. I KNOW what is coming down the road, and not that far away (3-7 years). Not one society in history has ever escaped from the deleterious effects of massive deficit spending to fund wars and social programs, far in excess of the taxes that can be collected, without either a massive decline in the value of the currency, or a total destruction of the currency. The current (un)controlled demolition of the US dollar is being done through massive deficit spending, now funded almost totally by outright monetization (money printing). Everything is proceeding exactly as one might have expected some 7 years ago when I tentatively bought my first silver round for $8 due to fears of the unsustainability of the financial system and the utter folly of owning paper assets.
I view this latest silver correction as nothing more or less than another brief ‘blip’ on the road to total currency destruction and a revaluation of silver by at least a magnitudue; and perhaps your last opportunity to ever buy silver for under $30 again. As such, I welcome this dip, and hope it persists for some months so that as much physical silver is taken off the market as possible. Once this shakeout is over early next year, silver is going to move up so fast, you will hardly believe it, easily increasing 75-150% within 12-16 months.
FWIW, I’ll be posting about my assessment of the proximity to what I personally think is the ‘bottom’ over the next few weeks, but the important thing is not to be able to buy at the exact bottom (which is nearly impossible) – merely to buy when prices are low, instead of holding your fiat in fear that prices will fall even further, only for prices to start moving up again, making you reluctant to buy at all, and forcing you to eventually buy at much higher prices (if at all).
Buying silver requires either an iron will, or a deep conviction in the correctness of your contrarian investing based on your own research and knowledge. Once you have the latter, you no longer need the former. Without the latter, however, you will always need the former. Hopefully some of my posts are helpful in supplying some of the latter.
Hold strong, stackers, and use this dip to lower your DCA as much as possible. My gut says that we are now within a dollar or two of the bottom, but there will be confirming evidence in this week's COT report, which I will share on Friday.
It doesn’t matter how much you earn; it only matters how much you save. Precious metals are not only the best way to save in an economic climate of money-printing, high inflation, and unprecedented counterparty risk; the long-term fundamentals for gold and silver are so bullish as to make an eventual price explosion a foregone conclusion.
Are you "Some_Math_Guy" on the Kitco forum? The post is copy and pasted directly from there. If you are, you have some really insightful posts over there that our community here would benefit from.
No I am not however I liked it so much I wanted to repost it here I know plagiarism shoot me lol. The kitco forums have alot of good information on the metal markets.
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Makaveli
OG
Registered: 04/01/99
Posts: 1,700
Loc: NY
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Quote:
Gilgamesh18 said:
Quote:
Makaveli said:
Quote:
Gilgamesh18 said: We have now entered the ‘hammer zone’ for silver coming up to the end of the year. The next two weeks will be very difficult for all but the most die-hard silver investors, but will be seen next year for what it was - a supreme buying opportunity.
It’s excellent that another major price decline happened today, because Tuesdays are when COMEX futures positions are reported to the CFTC, which will be reported in this weeks’ Commitment of Traders report on Friday, Dec 21st. Based on the silver price at end of day today and the amount of short covering that the Commercial bullion banks have done today, by the end of the week we will have an excellent idea of how long and deep this particular correction will be. This will allow stackers to confidently stack even more physical silver at these heavily depressed prices.
Sentiment in the precious metals is perhaps worse at the moment than I can remember for the past 7 years – even worse than this past summer. Most precious metal bulls are now thinking, “I bought so much precious metal because I know that fiat currencies are toast, and yet when the most bullish-possible events happen within months of each other…QE3 (neverending QE) and QE4 (doubling the size of neverending QE)…precious metals actually fell. Maybe I’m wrong about precious metals! Maybe I’ve been wrong all along! Maybe gold was in a bubble!! Maybe I should SELL and get out’.
I know that there are thousands upon thousands of intelligent, informed precious metals investors for whom this exact pattern of thoughts has been repeating endlessly in their minds for days now. Many have indeed sold out of fear.
This is precisely what TPTB want; the perception that they focus their entire psy-ops and market manipulation tricks on creating, and why they have even induced the criminal banks to go short more silver now than they have been in over 2 years…since the last explosive rise in silver from 20-50$, in fact, which nearly destroyed the entire fiat currency system. TPTB are that concerned that we are nearing the fiat endgame; they need to keep the Sheeple in paper assets at any and all costs, and they will stop at absolutely nothing to destroy PM sentiment, dissuade PM fence-sitters, and try to induce even the strongest PM hands to sell.
Me, I’ve done my research. I KNOW what is coming down the road, and not that far away (3-7 years). Not one society in history has ever escaped from the deleterious effects of massive deficit spending to fund wars and social programs, far in excess of the taxes that can be collected, without either a massive decline in the value of the currency, or a total destruction of the currency. The current (un)controlled demolition of the US dollar is being done through massive deficit spending, now funded almost totally by outright monetization (money printing). Everything is proceeding exactly as one might have expected some 7 years ago when I tentatively bought my first silver round for $8 due to fears of the unsustainability of the financial system and the utter folly of owning paper assets.
I view this latest silver correction as nothing more or less than another brief ‘blip’ on the road to total currency destruction and a revaluation of silver by at least a magnitudue; and perhaps your last opportunity to ever buy silver for under $30 again. As such, I welcome this dip, and hope it persists for some months so that as much physical silver is taken off the market as possible. Once this shakeout is over early next year, silver is going to move up so fast, you will hardly believe it, easily increasing 75-150% within 12-16 months.
FWIW, I’ll be posting about my assessment of the proximity to what I personally think is the ‘bottom’ over the next few weeks, but the important thing is not to be able to buy at the exact bottom (which is nearly impossible) – merely to buy when prices are low, instead of holding your fiat in fear that prices will fall even further, only for prices to start moving up again, making you reluctant to buy at all, and forcing you to eventually buy at much higher prices (if at all).
Buying silver requires either an iron will, or a deep conviction in the correctness of your contrarian investing based on your own research and knowledge. Once you have the latter, you no longer need the former. Without the latter, however, you will always need the former. Hopefully some of my posts are helpful in supplying some of the latter.
Hold strong, stackers, and use this dip to lower your DCA as much as possible. My gut says that we are now within a dollar or two of the bottom, but there will be confirming evidence in this week's COT report, which I will share on Friday.
It doesn’t matter how much you earn; it only matters how much you save. Precious metals are not only the best way to save in an economic climate of money-printing, high inflation, and unprecedented counterparty risk; the long-term fundamentals for gold and silver are so bullish as to make an eventual price explosion a foregone conclusion.
Are you "Some_Math_Guy" on the Kitco forum? The post is copy and pasted directly from there. If you are, you have some really insightful posts over there that our community here would benefit from.
No I am not however I liked it so much I wanted to repost it here I know plagiarism shoot me lol. The kitco forums have alot of good information on the metal markets.
I didn't mean it as a call out brother 
That guy honestly has awesome insight and thought it would be great to let people here in on it as well. From your post I went out and bought 30 1oz Silver Eagles at just over a grand, so I am definitely glad you posted it 
Thanks bro!
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Gilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

Registered: 03/01/12
Posts: 11,671
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Re: Silver takes a beating [Re: Makaveli]
#17476951 - 12/31/12 02:08 PM (11 years, 29 days ago) |
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Oh very nice I love the eagles great coins and 33.33 an ounce isn't to shabby. I also bought about 20 eagles recently and a bunch of junk 90% silver mercury dimes are good and some peace dollars!
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