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OfflineSeussA
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16266820 - 05/22/12 11:07 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

> My entire point is that the Promise is not "thin air" any more than any other financial instrument.  If you want to make an argument that it is all a house of cards and magical thinking........

Your promise, my promise, and Enlil's promise are all good, but the promise made by the bum down the street, that the bank was forced to accept because of the CRA and rabid lawyers like Obama, is worth less than the used toilet paper that I flushed this morning.


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Enlil]
    #16266930 - 05/22/12 11:41 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

:lol:  doubt you'll ever hear it. The cost would be too great.


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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Icelander]
    #16266931 - 05/22/12 11:42 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Yeah...I suspect you're correct.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Enlil]
    #16267731 - 05/22/12 03:07 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Quote:

Enlil said:
You're arguing against positions that I never took.




You went too far, counselor, when you said this, which I was kind enough to highlight for you

"Every dollar that is cut is one less dollar available to pay someone."  The cascade of dollars is much more effective OUTSIDE the government than it is inside it.




This statement is 100% true and accurate within the context of how it was written...

For every dollar cut, there is one less dollar going to a paycheck...period...It isn't a matter of who is managing that dollar...if someone cuts a dollar from defense, some defense company has one less dollar to pay a worker...There's no inaccuracy there...

You're making some macro level argument about how dollars are better off in private hands...that's not the issue...I happen to agree with you on this.  It is, however, a FACT that when defense budget is cut, that is less money going to people's paychecks...

I am more than happy to see 1.4 trillion dollars cut from many different things and let the unemployment rate skyrocket...it'll come around eventually.  But to claim that cutting a dollar doesn't take it out of a paycheck is nonsense.




You reference the unemployment rate being effected but that is not necessarily so.  Some people will ose jobs if the defense budget is cut but that will mean more money kept in the private sector and that might well mean MORE jobs, not less since military contractors probably account for higher pay rates due to their technical nature.  You were making a macro-economic argument by bringing in the unemployment rate.  Yes some people will lose jobs, others will gain jobs.


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InvisibleEnlilM
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16268175 - 05/22/12 04:37 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Quote:

Enlil said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Quote:

Enlil said:
You're arguing against positions that I never took.




You went too far, counselor, when you said this, which I was kind enough to highlight for you

"Every dollar that is cut is one less dollar available to pay someone."  The cascade of dollars is much more effective OUTSIDE the government than it is inside it.




This statement is 100% true and accurate within the context of how it was written...

For every dollar cut, there is one less dollar going to a paycheck...period...It isn't a matter of who is managing that dollar...if someone cuts a dollar from defense, some defense company has one less dollar to pay a worker...There's no inaccuracy there...

You're making some macro level argument about how dollars are better off in private hands...that's not the issue...I happen to agree with you on this.  It is, however, a FACT that when defense budget is cut, that is less money going to people's paychecks...

I am more than happy to see 1.4 trillion dollars cut from many different things and let the unemployment rate skyrocket...it'll come around eventually.  But to claim that cutting a dollar doesn't take it out of a paycheck is nonsense.




You reference the unemployment rate being effected but that is not necessarily so.  Some people will ose jobs if the defense budget is cut but that will mean more money kept in the private sector and that might well mean MORE jobs, not less since military contractors probably account for higher pay rates due to their technical nature.  You were making a macro-economic argument by bringing in the unemployment rate.  Yes some people will lose jobs, others will gain jobs.



Again...how does that equate to me saying that we can borrow and borrow and the the bill will never come due? You keep talking about everything else, but you can't back up your own statements...Where did I say that we can borrow and borrow and borrow without the bill ever coming due?

As far as your theory that cutting defense spending would create jobs elsewhere, that's nonsense...if the money is cut...it never gets spent...it doesn't keep more money in the private sector because the spending isn't even funded by taxpayers of today...it is funded by hypothetical taxpayers generations down the road...so it saves today's taxpayers nothing...and therefore leaves them no extra money to create jobs.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Enlil]
    #16268246 - 05/22/12 04:52 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Quote:

Enlil said:


This statement is 100% true and accurate within the context of how it was written...

For every dollar cut, there is one less dollar going to a paycheck...period...It isn't a matter of who is managing that dollar...if someone cuts a dollar from defense, some defense company has one less dollar to pay a worker...There's no inaccuracy there...

You're making some macro level argument about how dollars are better off in private hands...that's not the issue...I happen to agree with you on this.  It is, however, a FACT that when defense budget is cut, that is less money going to people's paychecks...

I am more than happy to see 1.4 trillion dollars cut from many different things and let the unemployment rate skyrocket...it'll come around eventually.  But to claim that cutting a dollar doesn't take it out of a paycheck is nonsense.




You reference the unemployment rate being effected but that is not necessarily so.  Some people will ose jobs if the defense budget is cut but that will mean more money kept in the private sector and that might well mean MORE jobs, not less since military contractors probably account for higher pay rates due to their technical nature.  You were making a macro-economic argument by bringing in the unemployment rate.  Yes some people will lose jobs, others will gain jobs.



Again...how does that equate to me saying that we can borrow and borrow and the the bill will never come due? You keep talking about everything else, but you can't back up your own statements...Where did I say that we can borrow and borrow and borrow without the bill ever coming due?

As far as your theory that cutting defense spending would create jobs elsewhere, that's nonsense...if the money is cut...it never gets spent...it doesn't keep more money in the private sector because the spending isn't even funded by taxpayers of today...it is funded by hypothetical taxpayers generations down the road...so it saves today's taxpayers nothing...and therefore leaves them no extra money to create jobs.




:facepalm: The money, even future tax receipts or promises or devaluation, does come from somewhere.  It comes from future business.  Every business person knows this.  You seem to think that spending money you don't have comes at no cost.  It carries a heavy cost and it isn't just interest.  It is the reasonable fear among investors that they are going to get fucked.  The more the debt increases the less likely they are to act  Businesses are sitting on historic amounts of cash.  Do you know why they aren't investing and hiring?  Because they see a rising debt and know that they are going to be the only ones asked to pay the bill if the current idiot remains in office. 

Obama is going to be behind the unemployment eightball no matter what since they cook the books on that stat.  If people start hiring again then the vast number of people who quit looking and got off the rolls of the unemployed will come back to be counted as in the work force, which will push the UE number back up.  Unless, of course, they figure a new way


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InvisibleEnlilM
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16268288 - 05/22/12 04:58 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Now you're saying that a reduction in the deficit would cause hiring because businesses would have more confidence in the economy...That's probably accurate, but it's pure speculation to claim that a 500 billion dollar cut in defense spending would create enough confidence that the private sector would invest 500 billion in creating new jobs.  It's possible, of course.  It's possible that twice as many jobs would be created.  It's also possible that 1/10 as many would be created.  It's simply impossible to tell. 

It certainly isn't the dollar for dollar match that you were preaching early in this thread....and it is absolute fact that 500 billion in defense cuts comes out of people's paychecks.  If that is offset by an increase in job creation as a result of increase confidence..that's awesome...but that is simply a gamble at this point.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Enlil]
    #16268324 - 05/22/12 05:05 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
Now you're saying that a reduction in the deficit would cause hiring because businesses would have more confidence in the economy...That's probably accurate, but it's pure speculation to claim that a 500 billion dollar cut in defense spending would create enough confidence that the private sector would invest 500 billion in creating new jobs.  It's possible, of course.  It's possible that twice as many jobs would be created.  It's also possible that 1/10 as many would be created.  It's simply impossible to tell.




Once again, I don't think in terms of weekly unemployment reports
Quote:

 

It certainly isn't the dollar for dollar match that you were preaching early in this thread....and it is absolute fact that 500 billion in defense cuts comes out of people's paychecks.  If that is offset by an increase in job creation as a result of increase confidence..that's awesome...but that is simply a gamble at this point.




Hell, I think it will be better, by far, than dollar for dollar.  But not until the November results are in.  They aren't going to be firing anybody tomorrow nor are they going to fire all of them at once.  You cannot operate an economy by making jobs king.  They have to be a derivative of profit.


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InvisibleEnlilM
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16268393 - 05/22/12 05:18 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

That would be great.  Like I said, I'm all for cutting defense...I'm all for cutting all kinds of shit...I'm all for cutting until we've balanced the budget, at least...and I would back any administration that would do that despite the unemployment it created...

Of course, no democrat or republican is going to cut like that...both parties want to spend as much as possible..the only dispute is where to spend the money.


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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Enlil]
    #16268603 - 05/22/12 05:54 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

I guess one could always examine the return of investment ROI when it comes to defense spending. Does this investment benefit the country as a whole, or is this spending wasteful.

A mis-allocation of capital is never a good idea, if the withdrawal of that capital results in job losses, too bad.

This economy is so fragile at this point that any cut in defense spending would most likey produce a negative result, and the benefit would take years to show up.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: qman]
    #16268989 - 05/22/12 07:22 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

So...... about that defense budget....


lol


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Offlinebongjuice420
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: memes]
    #16271031 - 05/23/12 02:03 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

We should distinguish the difference between defense spending and militarism. Defense spending is the money spent to actually defend our own soil. Militarism is all the contracts that fatten the pocket of corporations and people. Cut the militarism but keep the defense spending.

RON PAUL 2012!!!


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: bongjuice420]
    #16271591 - 05/23/12 06:13 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

> RON PAUL 2012 2016!!!

Fixed that for you.  (Ron Paul dropped out of the 2012 race.)


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16273164 - 05/23/12 03:40 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
You reference the unemployment rate being effected but that is not necessarily so.  Some people will lose jobs if the defense budget is cut but that will mean more money kept in the private sector and that might well mean MORE jobs, not less since military contractors probably account for higher pay rates due to their technical nature.



You still don't get it zap.  Cutting $500 billion will necessarily cut $500 billion worth of jobs (less whatever amount of that was profit - let's say $50 billion).

So cutting $450 billion will be a cut of approximately 4.5 million jobs, with not a dime more appearing anywhere in the economy (it's only future savings).

Laying off 4.5 million people with no return today is NOT something that I believe will excite Wall Street, as you like to think.  That's 4.5 million people that won't have money to spend and are now living on the Government tit, reducing the future savings their layoffs were meant to offset.

I'm all for shrinking spending and the military.  But it has to be done slowly, and AFTER the economy recovers.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #16273309 - 05/23/12 04:13 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

zappaisgod said:
You reference the unemployment rate being effected but that is not necessarily so.  Some people will lose jobs if the defense budget is cut but that will mean more money kept in the private sector and that might well mean MORE jobs, not less since military contractors probably account for higher pay rates due to their technical nature.



You still don't get it zap.  Cutting $500 billion will necessarily cut $500 billion worth of jobs (less whatever amount of that was profit - let's say $50 billion).




Nope.  There is no reason to believe that it will happen all at once or that these skilled people will not be re-employed in other venues.  Government jobs are vulture jobs.
Quote:



So cutting $450 billion will be a cut of approximately 4.5 million jobs, with not a dime more appearing anywhere in the economy (it's only future savings).




Only future savings?
Quote:

 

Laying off 4.5 million people with no return today is NOT something that I believe will excite Wall Street, as you like to think.  That's 4.5 million people that won't have money to spend and are now living on the Government tit, reducing the future savings their layoffs were meant to offset.

I'm all for shrinking spending and the military.  But it has to be done slowly, and AFTER the economy recovers.




It can't possibly happen all at once.  Are you well?  Has Congress ever made anything that happens all at once.  Now you're raising the scary unicorn.  It will be a slow diminution of the MI complex, probably not as much as you think.  Do you really think that outside of 10% for profit every cent is labor?  Just fucking wow.

Is it or is it not a good idea to reduce government spending for things we don't need even though that will mean fewer people working for the government?


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InvisibleEnlilM
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16274077 - 05/23/12 06:38 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Do you really think that outside of 10% for profit every cent is labor?  Just fucking wow.




Yes...with the exception of lease payments on real property and profits shared as dividends, every cent is labor..Every raw material purchased was mined, smelted, milled, logged, hauled, etc...Every cent is someone's paycheck....

It doesn't matter if the cuts come in the form of direct government firing...or less purchases...everything purchased is made with labor.



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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: Enlil]
    #16274262 - 05/23/12 07:15 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

No materials costs, huh?


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Invisiblememes
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16274316 - 05/23/12 07:30 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

materials not bought by the government mean less revenues for government suppliers, which implies less jobs needed at those companies, and so on and so forth.

every cut, whether directly to a paycheck or not, will affect either (a) a job, or (b) demand for a product whose supply is linked to a job.

DIrect or indirect, the cut hurts jobs.






not on either side of thsi argument - just throwing that out there.


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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: zappaisgod]
    #16274865 - 05/23/12 09:30 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
No materials costs, huh?



Lol...where do you think materials come from?  If you need 2x4s, do you think they just put cash in the ground and 2x4's pop out?  2x4s are from trees cut down by people who get paychecks...then those trees are put on trucks driven by people with paychecks...to a mill..where people with paychecks run machines built by people with paychecks...electricity powers the machines...electricity comes through wires put up by people with paychecks...and made of copper which was mined by people with paychecks...and the electricity was generated in a power plant run by people with paychecks...who feed coal into the furnaces...guess where coal comes from...you guessed it..the ground...guess how it gets out of the ground...people with paychecks take it out...


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: We really should cut the defense budget [Re: memes]
    #16277274 - 05/24/12 09:39 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

meams said:
materials not bought by the government mean less revenues for government suppliers, which implies less jobs needed at those companies, and so on and so forth.

every cut, whether directly to a paycheck or not, will affect either (a) a job, or (b) demand for a product whose supply is linked to a job.

DIrect or indirect, the cut hurts jobs.






not on either side of thsi argument - just throwing that out there.




No.  Firing all the buggy whip makers did not damage the economy.  You cannot take a macro argument and apply it to specific individuals.  It is called creative destruction and it benefits the macro every time. 

By the way, since when is job creation a goal of business?  Or government.  I use that metric to describe failed economic policies.  It is an indicator.  As a business it is generally for the best to do without employees as much as possible.  It is also better for the whole.  It frees people to do other things.  That is, if they are willing to expend the energy to get off their asses and do so rather than wait for the government check.


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